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Durable Goods Miss, Inventory Stockpiles Soar To New All Time High
We have been keeping a close eye on economic reports in the month of March and as of this morning's just reported Durable Goods number we are now officially at miss 15 of 17. The headline print was +2.2% to a total of $211.8 billion, on expectations of +3.0%, up from a revised -3.6% decline in January. Ex-transportation, the number was +1.6% on expectations of a 1.7% increase, while Non-defense ex aircraft was up 1.2% on Exp. of 1.5%. The primary driver in the core slump was electrical equipment which slide 2.5% in February from $10.5 billion to $10.25 billion - are Americans getting all "gizmoed out?" And finally, for those who are saying the inventory restocking is over, we have two words: Dead Wrong. "Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, up twenty-six consecutive months, increased $1.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $373.7 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.6 percent January increase. Machinery, up twenty-three consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.6 billion or 0.9 percent to $62.2 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis." That's right - inventories just hit an all time high having increased 26 months in a row. And now you know where US economic "growth" has been hidden all these years. But yes, if you build it, they will come. Eventually. In the meantime, expect sell-side desks to again enact Q1 tracking GDP reductions.
Durable Goods
Inventories: simply stunning.
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long trucks to move stuff around and count as sold!
Chevy Volts up the wazzoo! Get yours now cause they're going up in flames fast.
Don't forget your new piece of iCrap. It awaits.
I'll bet the guns & ammo depots aren't sitting there with rotting inventory...
Damnit you beat me to it!
You screwballs with your guns and ammo make me chuckle. Do you really think things would be sooo out of control that your guns will save you? Do you really think there would be no more police , swat teams, national guard call ups, ect to surround you and your property if you ever began or even threatened to shoot? Do you honestly believe that your guns and ammo would save you from out of control mobs of people that will swarm over your property and take it all if you don't protect it? Do you really deep down believe that things will get soooo bad that you will have to hunt for your food to survive? That every food manufacturer will go bankrupt? That you have to stand guard over your fruit and vegie garden 24 hours a day or the out of control mobs will come and steal them? Wow...get out of your fantasy world and come back to the real world. By the way...thanks for the chuckles all you rough and tough gunslingers. hee heee.
ROTFLMAO!!!
Then you are invited to my secret garden...
So prices will be coming down and all is good in America right?
Basically, stockdummy suffers from cognitive dissonance and delusions of pink unicorns just around the corner...
Magic Eight Ball says: Chances are good
"Do you really deep down believe that things will get soooo bad that you will have to hunt for your food to survive?"
Thankfully ~ I have enough of a supply to get me through enough of a period that I won't have to go hunting for it while the storm passes... & even if I do run out, I'm happy to know that there will be people like you that I wouldn't even have to shoot... That's assuming someone else hadn't pistol whipped you already...
You know what?....... You may be right. But as Churchill said "i would rather die on my feet a free man, than to live on my knees as a slave".
We can assume you will be one of those on their knees........
k@
Hey Buttnut your ignorant thoughts work if you live in the city. There is no SWAT team in 90% of the country and the police, National Guard are poorly trained. You must live in MASS HOLE Chuesetts and you think the GOVERNMENT is going to keep you safe. Why do you think the state GOVERNMENTS (including Mass.) are passing stand your ground laws they know if the shit hits the fan they can't do anything about it. But don't worry your liberal ass will be protected by your neighbor and his shiny new Mossberg pump shot gun.
I have guns, I have friends and I have friends with guns.
The best defense is a good offense. Would you steal from a garden if you thought you might get lead poisoning?
Ask the Katrina survivors how that worked out for them.
For some, it's as if there are no more police already ....
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/03/on_that_violent_death_in_the_berk...
You obviously haven't read about the roving bands of farm marauders in Weimar at the height of the hyperinflation. Hungry people are desperate people.
All those cops, Natl Gaurdsmen, SWAT, etc. types will be vastly more concerned with their OWN families.
Count on it. That's the nature of human beings. Truthfully, I don't blame them.
I live 3 -4 days walk from the nearest city.
I & my Ant neighbors will be very unhappy if you and your Grasshoper neighbors manage to make it to my prepared, self-sufficient anthill expecting to be fed for a few months.
We will be disinclined to hand over the fruits of our labor and planning.
Winter's coming. It always does.
Guess you never head of the Progressive paradise and Showplace - Dee--Troit. Or is there some honor in dying like the little Media Matters lap dog you are?
Ruger has run out of inventory. hee hee
Well, at least sales are strong in lead, gunpowder, and molded stainless.That's got to be good for the gap in DG.
For what it's worth, the Chevy Volt has been declared "2012 Car of the Year" in...drumroll please...GERMANY of all countries. Known as the Opel Ampera, it has NO competition, which, given the car's limitations and apparent quality problems is amazing but perhaps not so much if you take an average gasoline price of $10 per gallon across Europe into consideration. Draw your own conclusions...
my classmate's sister makes $67/hour on the laptop. She has been without a job for 6 months but last month her pay was $20212 just working on the laptop for a few hours. Read more on this web site ..... http://lazycash9.com
Few people understand that forecasts that companies spend millions on are based on false economic indicators... just as retirement and pensions are based on false "inflation" data... Ben knows that if the true inflation rate of 10-12% were published and made the official CPI there would be major storms all over...
It is already game over... these charts help you remember that
You are not too far off on that. In the good old days, a company with excess inventory would set up a separate company for the special purpose of buying its inventory. They would sell to this new company through a loan arrangement directly, or in a convoluted way through a bank, whilst indirectly guaranteeing the bank loan themselves. Hey presto, you had earnings...
Solendra did that right before they filed for bankruptcy: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/feb/27/questions-arise-over-fire-sale-of-solyndras-assets/?page=all
Returning to real money is the best way to put more money in your pocket to buy this inventory.
The real reason you pay an income tax, is for the privilege of using a private currency.
Also known As A: Federal Reserve Note
Demand from your bank or brokerage, lawful money and the tax goes away, with a tax exemption on lawful money, all of your money is yours.
http://www.21silver.com/?show=merrill&read=federal_reserve_act_remedy
http://stormthunder.com/federal-reserve-act/
Tax Exemption: http://stormthunder.com/federal-reserve-act/#ixzz1pOYzDgEm
Web search these three different phrases:
Redeemed in Lawful money or
Redeemed in Lawful money Pursuant to Title 12 USC §411 or
deposited for credit on account or exchanged for
non-negotiable federal reserve notes of face value
bullish warehouse fires
You mean "Jewish lightning"
Big fire sales are coming. DEFLATION!
yayyyy! GDP! GDP! GDP!
Well, there are plenty of empty facilities to store "stuff" in.
And at 0% interest the cost of holding all that inventory is low, that is if you're a BIG CORPORATION that can get the Fed's free money. You small businesses can just suck on some lemons.
15 of 17, Jesus this world is fucked.
The markets know not what they do.
Yeah they do, react to the expectation of further QE (time for Guru).
I've been trying to figure out what the 2 of 17 were.
Bullshit manipulated unemployment, and bullshit manipulated inflation.
All the actual, factual, real numbers have been bad.
Should have known.
Long Junk Yards, recycling, and wealth re-distribution.
How do you go long wealth redistribution? And if you make a killing, don't they just take it away and give it to someone else, anyway?
Better crank up the speed on those printing presses Benny...
but, but, but.... i thought all these corporations were sitting on mountains of cash.
Or was it "cash in kind"... it's so confusing
You have theright ides but the wrong language here ...
this behavior pattern is called "hoarding" .... just like those people who are stockpiling inventory of precious metals ....
So, Bernanke walks into a bar, and the bartender says
"why the long farce".
Or Gran Torino.
Bernanke walks into a bar, the bartender looks up and says "Get the Fck Out of Here"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlluWyTT9Gw
It's probably because of the weather. It usually is. Warm weather often depresses the markets. So does cold weather. And perfectly average weather too. Except when it doesn't.
Besides, what's wrong with inventory? You don't want to be like in the USSR where they had bread lines but no bread, do you?
How much extra chemicals do they have to put in the bread to last longer?
The other day I went to get some potatoes out of the pantry and found that they all had eyes rampantly growing. At first, I was horrified. None of the potatoes I had stored before ever had eyes growing. Then I remembered my childhood, that eyes like these were the norm back then. That was when I realized that this bag of potatoes was organic. The other bag of potatoes (red) in my pantry did not have any eyes and was not organic. Non-organic potatoes are sprayed with a chemical to prevent them from growing eyes. I wonder what it prevents you from growing.
Get a bread machine - make your own. Then you always know what is in it.
And now you have your excuse for more QE on lower GDP projections compliments of Ben-O...this must be what the markets are pricing in that we are not?
Is the inventory build mostly cars? Most industries will hold less inventories when business is perceived to be mediocre-or their caught with it unexpectedly, but the above chart has gone on a build for quite awhile.
You are wrong there. A normal private company would cut back, perhaps lower prices to move inventory. Since 99% of what is in stores today comes from a publicly traded marketing company, they can't cut back and the can't cut prices.
If a public company cuts back, that is admitting they can't show growth. That is like saying you have terminal cancer, your stock will drop and the company will be dead.
Look at Sears, in reality they are bankrupt and can only grow by closing stores to hopefully show increasing comps by having less locations to shop at. However, management sent out a wondefull pipe dream letter claiming they will grow, instant doubling of their stock reality be damned.
All any corporation cares about is its market cap. Sales don't matter, profit doesn't matter. Only increasing revenue to show growth and increase the share price.
You ever wonder how every single store seems to increse comps every quarter, even in the face of declining demand? Stores and the name on them are seperate corporations under the same umbrella. The main corporation produces more inventory than could ever be sold, they sell it to the stores and book the forward profit, WOW LOOK AT THE MASSIVE GROWTH!!! When the product never sells, the company buys back the store inventory, WOW LOOK AT THE HUGE COMP GAIN!!! The corporation will then write off the buyback inventory as a loss, helping the "accountants" fix the books, WOW HUGE TAX SAVINGS!!!
Retail is a scam. Lulu Lemon works exclusively on this scam. Select Comfort too. Apple uses this to their advantage as well. They do sell a lot of product, but nowhere near what they claim. Any corporation with their own stores sells inventory to itself to claim profit. Yes product does actually get sold to consumers but the majority of the inventory is produced to keep the ponzi scam going. Think about all the inventory you see in a store right before a product change, within a day all the inventory is gone and new stuff takes its place. If the store couldn't sell all the inventory in a few months even on sale, they didn't sell it off to consumers over a weekend.
Thank you for the reply...very interesting!
great post.
Head shot
you mean "if they build it they will cut price." the stores up here are chock full of goodies--and i don't know if that counts in an inventory number. as with our houses, our girth and our cars however "we have super-sized out stores as well." perhaps a simple "give-away" day? or how about a "no you don't have to pay your taxes anymore" weekend? anywho this is good news for consumers...not a market negative per se but definitely a "political negative" as "the government has all the money and the retailer only has a boat load of stuff to the rafters." needless to say "this is China. This is China's trade surplus without an American consumuer":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKNSmw8jdBY&feature=player_detailpage
I like your take on that "This is China's trade surplus...". I feel better already.
At least there is plenty of stuff that nobody can afford laying around now.
It will be great for all the window shopping people will be doing to pass the time between unemployment checks.
Maybe people can supplement their income with shoplifting.
I cannot understand why the average Wall Street analysts have been so bullish. Thus far there has been a bullish chorus at every corner. Although this sounds like rear seat driving, where did they think the great corporate revenues arose from. There has been a massive inventory build up in the US and these numbers lay it bare. Clearly, with interest rates low, companies funding this inventory have been happy to build up larger stocks than they would usually. The question is when will the consumer buy. That is, now it is built "When will they come?" If there is a long time lag, you can perhaps see corporate bankruptcies increasing, and corporate credit spreads going through the roof. Remember, although rates are low, loans have a finite maturity and need to be repaid. If you aren't selling down goods, the bankers are going to get nervous, and pull your lines and not re-finance maturing debt.
>>"I cannot understand why the average Wall Street analysts have been so bullish. "<<
What? You can't be serious. They can't sell a single worthless turd unless the sucker they are selling to believes that TOMORROW or NEXT YEAR will be better... it is part of the bigger idiot theory and how Wall Street has been operating since the start. I worked there. I know.
I also know that they are scared shitless knowing that if the retail sucker does not come back with both hands open ready to buy their worthless paper very soon, it will collapse... and BEnron knows this as well so he is prepared to print all that is needed to keep the ponzi going...
If you are a large enough corporation, you need not worry about bankruptcy. Like taxes, Bankruptcy is for the little people.
Bloomberg:
one analyst calls it a good number
He's got his numbers fucked up...It's an accurate number not a good one.
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/28/apple-offers-refund-to-australian-buyers-of-new-ipad/
Apple knows that very few people will do a refund. Its silly anyway, people are complaining because it doesn't get 4G in Australia. Maybe the people should read about a product before they hop on line to sleep outside to buy it. In a good world, Apple wouldn't do a refund and it could be viewed as a tax on the stupid. Next time they'd be more mindful of their purchases before they spent their money. Unfortunately Apple is a great company so they want to keep their reputation and thus they offer a refund. I bet one of these people will be suing McDonalds for having coffee that is hot as well.
I believe the article indicated that APPL said yes you can with a SIM solution, that we find is pure BS,, buyer beware??? WTF!! Of course if the article is accurate..
Lots of stuff to advertise in "The Closeout News" magazine.
Inventory to sales is not as "stunning" however. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ISRATIO
Still..there's too much crap being sold these days. I"m finding I can recycle so much crap around my house to buld things its quite nice .. got to build a chicken coop and a solar water and space heater.. i've got a huge pane of glass, an aluminun shed that's shot so will use those to get stared on the solar heater.. and good deal of left over wood i can use to get started on the coop.
Invest in self sufficiency
Plus, most of the crap out of China doesn't even last. My company has crap from China, tons of consumer complaint about the plastic falling apart, the shit melting onto product, etc.
But all about moving those units!
Debasement
I feel badly for any small business owner who listened to the MSM and believed the BLS and, in anticipation of a growing economy, layed down extra inventory. This is just one of the unintended consequences of bull shitting about the state of the economy. Maybe all the patio furniture places in the DC area that are stuffed to the rafters with shit they won't be selling this summer should drop it all by Benny's house and store it in his garage, and basement, and backyard, and front lawn, and...
Which house?
The large estate home he is building on a remote island in the Pacific.
This is what this economy has been built on for the last 30 yrs. Build some crap, advertise it out the wazoo, be sure some hollywood whores or some dufus athletes get some for free, watch the herd go buy it while wondering how they ever lived without it, and then tax the money everytime it passes "go". Getting to the place where Ben is the only buyer. No fun taxing oneself.
You're along for the ride. Gold up.....Gold down. I watch with amazement. The media screams rah-rah-sis-boom-ba, but we all know the ponzi is crumbling. The government takes care of the "money-masters" ONLY. The wee-little-folk will get screwed.
Will they ever let gold see its REAL value? Icicles in hell.
Liars, crooks, sellouts, and traitors. Greed run amuck. They haven't figured out immortality yet. The only good news is that all these fucks WILL die someday.
Except Cheney - he's already well on his way to full borg.
Cheney is more Reptilian than Borg-like...
Stocking up for the next page in the game plan: war and rationing
"Build it now while commodities are cheap and markets unprotected."
These channels have more stuffing in 'em than a muppet.
Well, youse guys oughta know! :>D
Machinery?
The military type?
What a mess, i need a shot of something with my morning vegitable juice.
And The Fed STILL can't jump start home purchases. And it isn't doing too well in stimulating mortgage refis either!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/03/28/mortgage-bankers-purchase-applications-increase-3-25-refi-applications-down-4-58-waiting-for-godot/
You do get the sense that corporations are trying to "firce" the business through, onto the consumer. They want to hire, they want to sell their McStuff....but the American consumer, who wants to buy the stuff, just can't.
Geez, I wonder why? With wages stagnant and gas rising like Jerry Sandusky's pants at a Day Care Center, it is hilarious to see those baffled at why they can't move inventory out the door.
Hell, even GameStop, know for having tons of gizmo crap in their coffers, are actually offering 50% Trade-In VALUE towards store credit in their stores. For all games. That's really telling; basically says to me, "Minus Mass Effect, COD, and the random kids' game......no one is buying our shit." And videogames usually tend to be recession proof.
Inevitability *will* kick in sooner or later. They can stretch that dollar as much as they want, even the corporations and big banks can beat math.
The deal the same as it has been for 3 years.
Economy is not the stock market.
In the stock market, to much free money chasing fewer and fewer assets. ERGO.....
What matters is wealth effect is the ONLY way the monetary policy is transmitted because all other channels are broken.
Learn it. Live it.
Btw, the program is the same. Soft landing in living standards for bottom 80% as poverty effect trickles down. Everything else is just PR propoganda.
Yes but we will feel richer surrounded by our gadgets and pretending to be players in the markets. Next xbox should have etrade game - would have all the capabilty of bats in hpme version.
But seriously what's happenimg is the Great Levelling - simply bad timing.
aye, a soft landin
many a slip...
radar's out, we're in clouds of rfFiat chum, chum...
if we can just avoid that parabolic debt spike, and the shoals0default, we got a fighting chance of making it to happy hour, lizzy; deflation special day! nickel water!
Excellent.
Attention Ebay shoppers!
More shit from China I can horde - need bigger house after they forclose on this one. Life is so good in Ameriiica!
I am think that now that we all get healthcare benefits I thing we should get all same benefits as civil service - pensions, tenure, sick leave, etc
So we're more like the Chinese model. Sales are counted on delivery to a warehouse and not when somebody actually buys stuff.
I think it would be useful to divide the inventory number by the population to get a more useful calculation.
Check out this chat from Doug Short http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Durable-Goods-Pe...
Nice chart... thx
Apple has a new device to pick your nose. The iPick.
Not to worry! I'm quite sure Diane Sawyer(ABC) will spin this as great news,being an election year!
Can anyone here honestly explain to me how anybody with a commute, much less loans to pay off, can keep on buying all of this crap?
With wages stagnant, how do the powers that be expect us to pay for both oil and everything else? With magic pixie dust?
Do they want me to bankrupt myself so I can buy an ipad number whatever? Do they want me to starve so I can continue to pay for cable TV? Do they want me to stop paying for electricity so I can afford better health insurance?
I have savings, no debt, a decent income, and am healthy. And believe me, I'm struggling.
Fuck 'em.
valued at lower of cost or market? Hahaha!
these are assets, BiCheZ!
mmm,... skittles!
great comments all.
i'm done trying to warn people outside of my close family, so as not to be a target in the upcoming ugliness of the global reset.
empty chinese cities, overstuffed us wharehouses, collapsing real estate, unemployed, unbelivable deficits...won't be too much longer