Even though it has since provoked a firestorm of denials and refutations, the reality is that Dutch media RTLZ probably had some very good sources (certainly better than the FT's yesterday when China was supposed to LBO Italy for the 4th time in 2011) to release the following information, namely that according to the Finance Ministry, the bankruptcy of Greece is inevitable, and that the "question is no longer whether but how Greece goes bankrupt." Additionally, Reuters added that according to Jan Kees de Jager, "We are studying scenarios in secret together with the Dutch central bank (DNB) and also with other countries. We are looking at our own economy, our government finances, the financial sector and consequences for Europe," De Telegraaf added that the "other countries" also included Germany and Deutsche Bank. He said it was difficult to let a country go bankrupt in a controlled way. "Always, if something goes wrong there are effects on other countries, on central banks. So you will have to take into account side-effects. That is precisely the reason why we are looking at different scenarios behind closed doors." A ministry source later confirmed a report on Dutch broadcaster RTL that the scenarios being studied included default by Greece. Of course, in keeping with the European M.O. of spreading a rumor, gauging the market response, and if response is unpleasant, to immediately refute it, Dow Jones and everyone else has since reported that the Dutch were only kidding and were not calling for an orderly default for Greece. Sure. Just preparing for one. Huge semantic difference there...
As for what the original information disclosed, before it was watered down by French political interests, here is the full piece from De Telegraaf:
A spokeswoman for the Ministry of Finance said in response that all scenarios are prepared for Greece, including a bankruptcy. "But that's not where we control or hope." Minister Jan Kees de Jager (Finance) said earlier in the day that all the scenarios, probable and improbable, are examined in consultation with De Nederlandsche Bank and other countries. He then wanted to confirm or deny that a Greek bankruptcy prepared.
Green in the House as soon as possible to clarify the Hunter.
A spokesman for De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) said in response that it is the responsibility of the supervisor to monitor the financial stability. This applies also to calculate various scenarios and policies to inform the findings. It is the European Central Bank and the politicians to connect them to conclusions, the spokesman said.
Banks are preparing
The Dutch financial sector is increasingly beginning to prepare for a bankruptcy of Greece. Scenarios are out of the closet and risks are discussed, as was Tuesday from a tour. About the contents of any steps in a Greek bankruptcy, and the potential impact on the sector, banks have remained silent.
Rabobank are the most concrete. CFO Bert Bruggink indicated Tuesday that Greece, in his bankruptcy. ,, The only question is when,''he said. A spokesman for the bank reported that Rabobank, all scenarios''for a so-called 'default' is ready. ,, But that goes for all other scenarios,''he added. The key to a solution to the problem lies in the Greek banking politicians.
Rabo said on August 24 is the provision was made for an amount of 104 million euros of Greek government bonds. The cooperative bank had 347 million euros in Greece at the time outstanding.
ABN Amro has no specific plans for a Greek bankruptcy, but look at all the risks and opportunities. A spokesman for ING's request did not specify whether scenarios are discussed.
It did the spokesman of the financial group ING is a Greek bond portfolio of over 1 billion euros. ,, The amount we have in our books on Greek government bonds in them, as large as the profits we get''in three months, so nuanced it. According to ING, the Greek crisis is not proportional to the credit crisis in 2008.
Netherlands would be impossible for Greece to assume the debt obligations to meet and advocate that the country goes bankrupt in a controlled manner. That should prevent panic in the financial world.
And completing the pre-intervention picture from Reuters:
Dutch financial daily Het Financieele Dagblad reported earlier on Tuesday that Bert Bruggink, chief financial officer at leading Dutch lender Rabobank, warned that Greece's bankruptcy was inevitable.
"The question whether Greece goes bankrupt is behind us now. The only question is when it will happen," Bruggink was quoted as saying.
Within a few weeks, the Dutch finance ministry will publish results from "shock tests" and what the shocks mean for government finances, whether recapitalisation of banks is needed, and what other measures might be necessary, De Jager said
Lastly, and most ironically is the following clip with former Greek Finance Minister Stefanos Minos who says what everone knows: that Greece needs to take drastic spending cuts measures, when this is precisely the last thing they are doing.