Early-Year Tax Refund Bonanza Ends

Tyler Durden's picture

During February and the first week or two of March, Individual Tax Refunds were running notably ahead of 2011 comparable data. More importantly, after a slow start, the rapid increase in refunds could have perhaps helped buffer the initial gas-price-related 'tax-hike' consumers were concerned about and yet not showing up in retail sales. However, as Stone & McCarthy notes today, the IRS reports that the dollar volume of individual income tax refund issuance lost ground once again to last-year's pace - now down 1% YoY (compared to being up 5.2% in mid-February). 4.3% more tax returns have been received and 2.6% more have been processed at this time compared to last year - and yet the average size of tax refunds are down 2.9% YoY even as the number of refunds is higher. It is perhaps a little premature to forecast the entire tax season, but, for now, what looked like a promising fillip for the consumer as tax refunds provided some extra spending power, appears to be slowing rapidly and removing yet another albeit small bowl of stimulus grool from the consumer's bowl.

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rosiescenario's picture

"and yet the average size of tax refunds are down 2.9% YoY even as the number of refunds is higher."


Tells you what sort of jobs are being created and what sort lost....

Rainman's picture

Nah....the Making Work Pay credit quietly expired for '11.......$400 single, $800 married is a hunk when it's a credit.

Freddie's picture

Gas is $4.97 at an ARCO here in Long Beach.  Hope & Change with the Hoodie Teleprompter.  Many thanks to the f**ks posting here who voted for him.

catacl1sm's picture

Did you mean "stimulus bowel"?

Elliott Eldrich's picture

"Grool" - Seriously? It's "Gruel" as in "a thin porridge." Grool? Wow...

Kali's picture

Grool as in grub and drool. In other words, regurgitated shit.

Lews Therin's picture

No.  Its girl drool.  You know, the drool downstairs when a girl is excited.  That is what grool is.  I'm serious, feel free to google and find out.  

Elliott Eldrich's picture

So that's what they're putting in the consumer's bowl? Um... okaaaayyy...

Jason T's picture

no more $8k tax credit bribes to buy a house from uncle sam that were paid in 2011 from tax year 2010.

LongSoupLine's picture



It's the weather...

or is it transistory?

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater's picture

Got my $7.5k for the Volt, along with another $3.5k or so for moving expenses etc..  Bank of Sealy bitchez!!

MiddletonRobert3's picture

my roomate's sister makes $85 hourly on the computer. She has been fired from work for 6 months but last month her paycheck was $16158 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more here .....  http://lazyCash.com

economessed's picture

Your roomate's sister does webcam porn?  For the SEC to watch?

tekhneek's picture

I haven't received a refund in years. I always owe, no matter what I fucking do, I owe them more money.

Born-Again Bankster's picture

Just quit your job and start having welfare kids.  The tax credits can get you almost $10k for someone with 3 kids making less than 60k.  Earned income tax credits, etc.  It's the Fed's way of keeping the poor people ignorant about inflation because that $10k will just go toward funding more lottery tickets, cigarettes and booze...and the masses will be quiet and happy and have more kids and get more tax credits.   It's really a great system if you just stop caring...and working.

penexpers's picture

Someone said it above: the amount of money being returned compared to the amount of overall returns is down. It really does show you what type of jobs were created.

I was just talking to a guy at a taqueria who looked about 50-55 wearing a hairnet from his job at a salsa-making plant across the street.

Her very much was looking forward to his tax refund.

The hairnet is the new work force's "suit."



fnordfnordfnord's picture

I was just talking to a guy at a taqueria who looked about 50-55 wearing a hairnet from his job at a salsa-making plant across the street.

Baby boomer moonlighting at a Taqueria? Hairnet? Also works in salsa "manufacturing"?

Maybe there is a just god.

Peter Pan's picture

Who thinks things will get worse?

Who thinks things will get better?

Lews Therin's picture

Grool.    Interesting that the author used that word instead of "gruel".  Grool is slang for girl drool.  You know, the drool downstairs?  That's what grool is... Look it up.  Be prepared for lots of porn!

azzhatter's picture

Tyler said Bonanza- where's Hoss?

seek's picture

I think the number might be being gamed. I owed a substantial sum on my taxes this year, paid it, and just got a refund check for a few hundred dollars for no apparent reason. I called my CPA and he said a large number of his clients are reporting the same thing.

Has this happen to anyone else here?

All I can think of is they're trying to do a stealth stimulus (give away refunds and them request them back post election) or have some other motive to show higher refund amounts -- perhaps to make it look like there's more money coming in via txes than there really is?


Praetorian Guard's picture

Don't know. I usually owe quite a bit myself. I would be concerned though that hey sent you money BACK. Might be a sly ploy to nail you in a few years saying you did not pay enough and then they hammer you on back taxes, fines, fees, etc... that actually happened to a friend of mine. Owed thousands from an initial modest tax bill...

seek's picture

My CPA is on top of this, and he's certain they'll be asking for it back by year end, but we both thought it was peculiar that so many people were having the same thing happen. These aren't small amounts or simple returns (ie six figures in taxes, 30-100 page returns) so it's very bizarre that a check for a few hundred shows just a few weeks after the return and payments are submitted.

I'm thinking it's either incompetence or gaming, rather than trying to trap people on back taxes. I could see them trying that trick on  self-filers or H&R block types who might fall for it, but not tax accountants.

Janice's picture

The problem is that Congress passes laws that affect tax returns in retrospect, but it takes time to program all that new stuff into tax return software. That, plus the IRS just got a fancy new computer program. OR, tax preparer is Turbo Timmah!

malek's picture

Well I can tell you my sizeable federal refund has been postponed two times and is now scheduled for today...

ebworthen's picture

The whole idea of a tax "refund" is an obscene mental conditioning technique little different than timing slot machine payouts or food pellets for rats in a maze.

jjsilver's picture

Anyone interested in the massive fraud behind the income tax should have a look at these sites.


31 Questions and Answers about the IRS