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The Easter Egg: Italy's Latest Parabolic Curve

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the world focusing on the latest disinformation from the BLS, one would be forgiven to miss the Bank of Italy's monthly balance sheet aggregates data. A quick perusal thereof reveals that in March, Italian banks saw their ECB support surge from €195 billion to €270 billion, the highest ever, 39% more than in February, and 776% more than greater than a year earlier, and now merely the latest parabolic curve to love and hold dear. Indicatively, on the chart below we have also added Spanish bank borrowings from the ECB (still pending a March update), which in February were also at an all time high of €152 billion. So aside from this last recourse lifeline from the ECB which is now openly keeping Europe's banks afloat, "the crisis is nearly over" to quote Mario Monti.

 

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Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:56 | 2322133 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Ok, not even a date, just give me th damn year that this thing collapses.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:15 | 2322182 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You can't have a date for that .  How could you expect such a thing?  The governments will intervene and do anything to stop it.  If you were the government, and you knew people would die if you don't intervene, you also would intervene **even if you firmly believed you were making it worse for later**.

You would do what they are doing.  You would intervene.  You would do anything to stop the collapse.  You would rationalize it as they are . . . maybe something will happen that will fix it all.  If you can just get more time, maybe something will occur that will undo the bad things . . . that are always coming but never arrive.  

So yes, you will intervene and corrupt the purity of the markets because you will realize that purity is not important if people are going to die to keep it pure.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:16 | 2322189 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

You prospective is wrong. The governments are not preventing collapse, they are creating it.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:33 | 2322233 pods
pods's picture

Not really, MATH is causing the collapse.  Governments are just pretending that exponential functions don't exist. 

pods

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:40 | 2322249 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

the collapse has been planned and carried out....the only thing we dont know is when and what will be the rug pull-out event.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:48 | 2322284 pods
pods's picture

Well I would say that the collapse has certainly been planned FOR, I would not say it has been planned.

Human nature made it a certainty, with us not allowing the deflationary part of the false business cycle to play out.  The ones who run the place really could not care either way.  They gain money and power no matter what part of the cycle we are on.  

Now that the banks are fat stuffed with cash again, the deflationary portion of the cycle can take place, and the banks take possession of the real property they acquired a stake in by creating funny credit money.

Even if things truly collapse, a new bank issued currency will be implemented, starting the cycle over.

With education succeeding in its goals of wiping out knowledge of the origin of money and the duties it should fulfill, they have not a care.  
The new system will be much like the old system.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

pods 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:54 | 2322301 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea its all just monetizing the debt, nothing new, its the last act of all failed bankrupt empires and we're at the end of monetizing cycle right now. Anyone who thinks now we just 'coast along muddling thru for a few years pretty much okey dokey' is smoking some good shit.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:14 | 2322334 Manthong
Manthong's picture

“If you were the government, and you knew people would die if you don't intervene, you also would intervene”

Um.. you are a little off on that perspective..

They don’t give a rat’s ass who lives or dies.. all they care about is keeping THEIR the credit money system AFLOAT (pun intended).

They will print until some black swan kicks confidence in the system out from under them and whatever is considered real capital and assets flees their sphere of control. Then they will use the military and police state to claw back everything they can claiming it is for the “greater good”.   

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:38 | 2322393 spentCartridge
spentCartridge's picture

Why does everyone equate insanity with 'smoking good shit'?

 

'Good shit', when smoked/eaten/imbibed is a source of clarity.

 

Tokers tend to be the more enlightened types of people, at least, that is the impression that I have evolved.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 20:42 | 2323795 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Concur. It's the bad shit you don't want to smoke.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:31 | 2322543 pods
pods's picture

When the system has outlived its usefulness, a new and better one will be implemented.  

Of course benefitting those who created it.

I do wholeheartedly agree that this one is in it's twilight.

pods

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:15 | 2322338 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

 and the banks take possession of the real property

How can they do that, when they've shredded the title to it? I mean, where's the legitimacy of it?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:29 | 2322540 pods
pods's picture

There is no legitimacy to it, but that does not mean it won't happen.  Most of the property "owners" do not have the funds to properly litigate the proceedings, otherwise they would not be in the place they are in.

The banks have made the mess so huge that property law will be re-written ex post facto because the solution would cause too much chaos.

And it is the banks who have the "lawmakers" ears, not the plebes.  So they will pay a token fine, which helps government revenue in the short term.

See the deal cut with the states AGs.  Even the solution for underwater "homeowners" comes out of their pockets indirectly.

Point:
"It's a big fuckin club, and you and I ain't in it!"

Carlin 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:46 | 2322274 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well then, no ZIRP for you!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 21:03 | 2323832 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Com'on Spain, yer letting the team down; don't let the Italians beat ya!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:48 | 2322279 Straying from t...
Straying from the flock's picture

99 years in the making.  The Federal Reserve and their masters, JP Morgan and the other banks, are both patient and focused on the end goal.  The absolute destruction of the US economy.  I believe they have done one hell of a job.

A dime a day will END the charade.

http://strayingfromtheflock.org/2012/04/06/a-dime-a-day-will-end-the-cha...

Everyone has the power to END the game.  As far as when, I can only respond with this:

"Better a year too early, than a day too late."

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:19 | 2322201 Waffen
Waffen's picture

your not telling my anythign I dont already know.(I tend to agree with the above, that its purposeful to bring in world government as the solution).

the question, when will it stop working?  Hell I thought 2011 would be when it would implode, but honestly this thing could drag out for years and years.

We all know this is a huge clusterfuck, what does it matter to rehash the same thing over and over.

When will it end?  (P.S. I am not expecting an answer, though I would love for someone to give a mathematical calculation as to when, which is what we should all be focusing on).

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:29 | 2322221 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Maybe I don't understand your point but world government has done a good job screwing everything up so far.  As for the crash...no idea between tomorrow and 2015.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:29 | 2322371 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

As for the crash...no idea between tomorrow and 2015.

FIFY.

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:41 | 2322254 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

2030? Meaning 2012 of course. 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:44 | 2322269 Kimo
Kimo's picture

"Correction: This post has been edited to reflect that MIT has not updated its research from the original 1972 study."

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:20 | 2322352 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

They failed to factor in 'Moore's Law'...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:28 | 2322812 Waffen
Waffen's picture

way to go out on a limb

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:45 | 2322259 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Waffen

Mark inauguration day 2013 as the start. Romney takes office and give him a two year window for the collapse of the US and martial law.

Sometime into his second term one world government starts with a nice little reset and digital currency. Fuck you gold.

The closer all the major players come to social equality, private and public healthcare balanced/similar amounts of unemplyment/similar amounts of consumption/similar welfare state bennies, the simpler OWG is to impliment.

I've read predictions of 2030 for a world economic collapse. If OWG has an established foothold before then, Romneys second term takes us into a precursor timeframe, anything after firms up the structure and control mechanisms.

Actually it looks to be a fairly harmless transition. TPTB learned from previous experiments, like the Soviet Union. Collapse and rebound with new rules and new players.

Pay close attention to India and Turkey. Turkey is a transition state between Europe and the Middle east, India will be the new america except lower wages. India has a nice ratio of young to old that won't peak until the next century.

The rest of the world is aging too damn fast and some structure needs to be in place to care for the amazing rise of the elderly.




Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:13 | 2322332 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

"The rest of the world is aging too damn fast and some structure needs to be in place to care for the amazing rise of the elderly."

Obamacare death panels = Soylent Green scenario = Solution to food shortages.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:30 | 2322823 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Digital currency?

What happened to bitcoins?

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 21:16 | 2323857 StychoKiller
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Amt($) = Offset + B * e xit; where xi = Interest rate, t = periodic time value, B = multiplying factor, and Offset = some baseline amt of dinero

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 22:24 | 2323955 tulip_permabull
tulip_permabull's picture

My understanding is that there are $15T in Treasuries currently outstanding but that $5T will mature three years from now. Will they be rolled over? At what interest rate?  Will the Fed be forced to buy up all of them as well? That would take quite a bit of printing. So 2015 looks like it could be an interesting year from that perspective.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:57 | 2322307 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Maybe if bankers and politicians actually had consciences or souls, I might agree they intervene to prevent "people from dying".  But from what I can see, they intervene to save their own sweet asses, and their rich buddies, from going bankrupt.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:01 | 2322311 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

For the love of God man!! You are rationalizing like a bitch. Don't assume that no one here has any ethics or a moral compass just because you don't.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 16:52 | 2323278 Western
Western's picture

"So yes, you will intervene and corrupt the purity of the markets because you will realize that purity is not important if people are going to die to keep it pure."

 

lol... shutup.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 18:06 | 2323434 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

Fried spaghettis!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:32 | 2322226 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

2012.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:32 | 2322230 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Print, print you MTFers!!!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:28 | 2322808 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

2013

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:56 | 2322134 ZippyBananaPants
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Do you have an update on QE Twist?  Total so far, and how much to go?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:00 | 2322142 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just one more fix, should do the trick! 

Line from a famous junkie song. Ooooo that smell! Cant you smell Bernank's funky ass central bankster SMELL?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:21 | 2322355 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

one hell of a price for you to get your kicks...

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:34 | 2322171 AlaricBalth
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9/21/11 FRB Release: "To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate."

Here is the April schedule for Operation Twist: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:57 | 2322138 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just need a WEE SMIDGEN more free money and then we'll surely be fixed! Come on, man, give up the free money we're goin thru severe withdrawal delerium tremens out here!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:59 | 2322145 pain_and_soros
pain_and_soros's picture

Yes, the crisis is actually almost over and will be when the full-fledged collapse of the global financial system occurs, all in due time.

Got Gold?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 10:59 | 2322148 MiddleageThinni...
MiddleageThinninghair's picture

Tyler - I think a funnier title would have been "The Easter Egg: Italy Lays a Parabolic Curve"

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:14 | 2322183 czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

How about "Italy makes a boner"

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:01 | 2322152 paulie
paulie's picture

Italian banks need to borrow from ECB because people here are withdrawing money from their accounts already.
The descent spiral has begun.

paulie

 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 17:54 | 2323397 ArgentoFisico
ArgentoFisico's picture
Pater Noster qui es in cælis:
sanctificétur Nomen Tuum;
advéniat Regnum Tuum;
fiat volúntas Tua,
sicut in cælo, et in terra.
Panem nostrum cotidianum
da nobis hódie;
et dimítte nobis débita nostra,
sicut et nos
dimíttimus debitóribus nostris (!!);
et ne nos indúcas in tentatiónem;
sed líbera nos a malo.
Amen.
Sat, 04/07/2012 - 06:12 | 2324221 Eclipse89
Eclipse89's picture

lol!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:03 | 2322154 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

are markets closed today?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:41 | 2322251 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

I was being serious. I wasn't sure if CNBC.com wasn't showing quote updates because they were so bad or if the market was closed for Good Friday.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:49 | 2322290 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Free markets have been permanently closed.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:09 | 2322174 BrokeDayTrader
BrokeDayTrader's picture

Anyone notice the freefalling financials in Europe like Banco Santander and BBVA?

Monday they could be printing new lows!!!!

Bring it!!!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:12 | 2322179 drink or die
drink or die's picture

"the crisis is nearly over". 

 

Does this strike anyone else as one of the dumbest, most non-sensical statements ever?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:17 | 2322197 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

I believe it is almost over.  The crisis as they know it, that is.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:32 | 2322231 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Sounds like something a politician would say.

Drink or die. Are the choices hemlock (republicrat) or strychnine (demican)?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:03 | 2322314 drink or die
drink or die's picture

It's a bottle of whiskey and a bag of popcorn while I watch both sides destroy each other.  I follow the "starving the monkeys" path.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:23 | 2322360 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

You left out Progrossive (Drano - straight from the can)

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:50 | 2322257 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Crisis? But CNBC just this morning said 'we're in a strong economic recovery.....strongest ever in world history probly'.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:54 | 2322303 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Policy makers and legislators need to heed Paul Krugman's stellar advice if they want to cure what ails the economic woes:

 

/SARC

 

Not Enough Inflation


By

Published: April 5, 2012

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:12 | 2322489 spentCartridge
spentCartridge's picture

No.

 

That accolade goes to the guy that said : "God Himself Couldn't Sink the Titanic"

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:23 | 2322211 BrokeDayTrader
BrokeDayTrader's picture

Bond futures still going up.  That has to be one of the biggest Treasury rally days I've ever seen.

Monday is going to be a massacre for the bulls.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:26 | 2322215 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Well, I know it will not collapse this year. After all. We have "free elections" coming up in November. Lets chat around Christmas.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:44 | 2322268 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I think some may assume that, but we know nothing. In many ways I think theres nothing the central banksters would love more than chaos and turmoil heading into elections to get rid of their unpopular puppet Obama who cant shed a disastrous 40% approval rating....its definitely not all unicorns and rainbows out there at all. I think they want a new puppet.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:11 | 2322324 Rincewind
Rincewind's picture

How about a nice bit of chaos (financial, war or both), so the election can be suspended?

Seems plausible.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:29 | 2322220 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Hey, off topic. You guys notice that Robot Trader has not reported in for a long while. Did he get a job?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:50 | 2322289 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

Yes, he is now a senior sign-spinner.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:57 | 2322304 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Robo and Robert Brusca spinnin signs like circus clown pros!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:56 | 2322306 minsky moment
minsky moment's picture

on that note, where is mathman

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 21:20 | 2323869 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The Internet Water Army promoted him/her and rotated him/her out!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:34 | 2322239 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Mario Monti has zero credibility and substantially less than Silvio Berlusconi. It wouldbe nice if Draghi would publish his diary and telephone logs so we can see how often Monti speaks with his fellow Italian Goldmanite

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:43 | 2322262 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

What's a few billion between friends?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:43 | 2322264 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

they have ALL weekend to talk about more QE or Twist to ramp the US market back up on Monday. I wouldn't be surprised if they've been fudging the last 3 months or so of NFP prints to make them look better than reality and then stuffing all of that bad news into this NFP print because it falls on Friday that markets are closed.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 11:46 | 2322276 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK so theyll talk up QE again, but dont intend on actually doing it so more carrot and stick economic model thru late fall with $6 gas....it will be fun to see how that works out.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 12:34 | 2322382 flyingpigg
flyingpigg's picture

There's another interesting piece of info if you click on the link in the article http://www.bancaditalia.it/statistiche/SDDS/stat_fin/Aggregati_riserve/agg_201204/agg201204en.pdf

At page 3 it states that Italy is still sitting on 98 billion Euro of gold reserves.

Sell zee gold! Enough for 4 months of refinancing and a good bunga bunga party!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:47 | 2322606 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Easter egg got me to thinking about the upcoming Easter egg hunt on the White House lawn. I just can't wait to see Michelle down on all fours scrambling after them eggs!

Booty call!!!

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:53 | 2322641 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

AT A GLANCE: European Banks' Disclosure On LTRO Participation | 4-Traders

here we see 2 ITA banks reported LTR0 participation at the end of feb[paste]:

ITALY:

so, we're looking at 30B of the 75B total going to 2 banks, possibly?  and other banks not reporting due to bloodyStigmata?  this was designed by mario4mario so this li'l can is kicked for 3 whole years!  what "can" happen next is anybody's guess, but in the long run...

spain?  here is what the spanish banks reported, from the same source:

SPAIN:

  • *CaixaBank SA (>> CaixaBank SA) said it participated, but said it didn't plan to comment on the amount.
  • *Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) said it took a "similar" amount as in the first LTRO, when it took about EUR11 billion.
  • *Banco Santander SA (STD) declined to comment.
  • *Bankia SA (BKIA.MC) declined to comment.
  • L0L!!!
Fri, 04/06/2012 - 13:54 | 2322643 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Stated another way, insolvent Italian and Spanish banks have now placed 415 billion euros in merda collateral with the ECB.  A good portion of the ECB capital loss for this will be sent to the governments Spain and Italy, who in turn  guaranteed these banks.  Italy's has 18.4% share of the tiny leveraged to the hilt capital base of the ECB, and Spain 12.2%.  Most of the rest will fall on France and Germany. 

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:09 | 2322712 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Socialism es muerte:) The Gorbachev moment is at hand, for socialisms western rite:))))))

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:38 | 2322852 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Just give them the access code to the FED's computers and be done with it already.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 14:59 | 2322944 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Up is good, right?"

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