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The ECB 'Compromise' Cheat-Sheet

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With Bernanke leaving the door open, but not pre-committing, in a check-raise to Draghi next week, market focus remains almost exclusively on the bond-buying program to support Spain. Credit Suisse expects markets to be mildly disappointed by Draghi's words and deeds as they question how far he can go, and in terms of near-term market moves, how much is said at next week's meeting versus said at later occasions or indicated through actions (e.g. once Spain asks for help). Draghi has already started to manage expectations with his Die Zeit comments (pitched at the German populous) but in order to get a handle on what the various scenarios are - and what the implications could be - here is Credit Suisse's matrix of compromise.

 

Credit Suisse: Analysing the ECB scenarios

Exhibit 6 below shows the main scenarios we consider possible. Our central scenario is the Compromise Scenario where the ECB cuts the Repo Rate to 50bp, keeps the Deposit Rate at 0% and revises the collateral framework. We expect little new material information on the front end SMP bond buying program. To us, this will underwhelm market expectations and will lead to a modest rally in core markets.

 

But the fact that the ECB meeting may well disappoint on bond purchases at this meeting does not change our constructive view on 1y Spain and Italy. In fact, any disappointment-led widening in 1y Spain would ultimately provide an opportunity to add to longs in 1y (and longer if it is clear that there will be buying) bonds; i.e., the commitment to do something is clear enough, it’s just a question of timing.

In developing these scenarios, there are three main axes to consider. We delve into these in more detail below:

  • Front-end bond buying: the degree of detail we get next week will determine the tone of the market in the near term. The question of seniority remains key.
  • Revision to the collateral framework: we are expecting changes to the collateral framework. Reducing haircuts will effectively act as a Repo rate cut.
  • Policy rate cuts: we do not expect negative Deposit Rate in the near future. We expect the ECB to cut the Repo rate by 25bp to 0.5%.

Disappointment. Under this scenario, the ECB does not provide any new material information on the front-end bond buying program. The ECB does not cut the Repo Rate but only announces the revised collateral framework. We expect the lack of detail on the bond buying to support a rally led by the Bund. The front end can sell off (5-10bp) as the market readjusts expectations for a Repo Rate cut. Spain and Italy 2-3y are likely to underperform in this scenario.

Compromise. Our most likely scenario. We expect little or no new information on bond buying. We expect a modest rally in core markets and wider peripheral spreads. To us any sell off in the front ends of Italy and Spain are a buying opportunity as we expect the ECB to reinforce their willingness and ability to address current market fragmentation.

Positive. In this scenario, we expect a meaningful revision to the collateral framework, and specific details on the maturity and countries that will be included in the front-end bond buying program. We would also expect the ECB to convincingly address the issue of seniority of bond purchases. To us that would be positive for the periphery. We expect tighter soft core and peripheral spreads. German yields would shift higher. We would position for this scenario by being short core yields.

Extremely positive. The least likely outcome. This scenario involves revision to the collateral framework that is immediately positive to the periphery (e.g. reducing haircuts on government bonds to a flat structure). The ECB cuts the Repo rate to 50bp and keeps the Deposit rate unchanged at 0%. Additionally, the ECB announces yield caps on the SMP program and addresses the seniority question convincingly. The immediate reaction is expected to be bearish steepening of the German 5s10s curve and tighter ASW, soft core and peripheral spreads.

 


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Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:54 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Big EU crisis, then money-printing

It's in the cards

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:07 | Link to Comment withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

EU, US, it can only continue to go up. They will continue to buy their own Debts and Markets with funny money "Until the rest of the world cuts them off".

It is coming, China wants to be in power, and they won't even have to fire one shot!!!!

Good Day Sir :

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment zaphod
zaphod's picture

So the "Disappointment" version is the ECB "only" "relaxes" collateral requirements.

Just what will be bankers do if the the ECB does nothing? (Or gasp tightens). From this I'll assume the world will end because doing nothing does not even seem to be an option.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:28 | Link to Comment zaphod
zaphod's picture

So the "Disappointment" version is the ECB "only" "relaxes" collateral requirements.

Just what will be bankers do if the the ECB does nothing? (Or gasp tightens). From this I'll assume the world will end because doing nothing does not even seem to be an option.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 17:44 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Ya this is absurd.  That's their disappointment scenario?

Yet today you got 0.5% on a Weidman will resign rumor.

You want a disappointment scenario?  Here is is:

Mario Draghi marches out in front of microphones and announces that there is no agreement, there can be no agreement, and he resigns.

 

Now that's a disappointment scenario.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 18:15 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

I used to trust Credit Suisse but they burnt a $50,000 hole in my pocket yesterday.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment Brazillionaire
Brazillionaire's picture

Two thumbs up to you, sir. More wisdom in that than in all the mainstream "financial analysis" I have seen lately.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:56 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

They've jaw-boned the markets higher for how long now?

The way things are going, with a complicit media and delusional perceptions, they could keep doing this for years.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

the question is, how many of them will be doing this for years and how many of us will be self-sufficient paying no attention to them except to come over here to ZH?

Fuck 'em all, take care of your own and pay no attention to them. 

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

No.  They can't.

For one reason.

Oil.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Mariano Rajoy is like a " playground thug" looking for lunch money! This guy should just get it over with ( fund/ECB), and quit screwing with consessions!

 In the end " Troika/Germany", is going to get even more pissed off!  I'm completly flat going into the W/E, and I was able to manage a small positive monthly positive P/L. This shit is getting really old!

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:06 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Shut down the bond market. No more speculation. You buy or you don't buy at the price the government says.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The bond market is where elderly, terrified money goes.

If you take that away, they will send their money to overseas bonds.

Keep in mind that the elderly have most of the money before you say "let them go".

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Err...given the last article you posted, a person would have to be a retard to listen to anything that the whores at CS say. 

Withdraw your money and buy some potentially productive land, let these coke swilling, child diddling bankers play with each other for a while WITHOUT access to your money. 

Then enjoy watching them squirm and starving.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Brazillionaire
Brazillionaire's picture

"...a person would have to be a retard to listen to anything that the whores at CS say."

And unfortunately, there is not a shortage of either. And they are in control (for now).

 

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

Downtown the second derivative of talk versus policy action....and the markets are as dumb as 2007

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 01:06 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Extremely Positive Can Kick. That seems entirely reasonable. Perfectly understandible. To each one of their butts.

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