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ECB Deposit Facility Usage Soars To 2011 High
Just when you thought the latest round of liquidity improvement rumors out of the ECB (such as the resumption of a 12 month refinancing operation from last week) would buy the European financial system some time (not like many did, but for the sake of sentence construction bear with us), here comes reality confirming that it took about 4 days before liquidity got hopelessly snarled up again. As of Friday, the ECB Deposit Facility usage soared to a fresh 2011 high of €200 billion, beating the previous high of €198 billion set on September 12. Once again banks are scared of keeping excess cash with each other (as confirmed by the nearly 50th consecutive increased in LIBOR) and instead have dumped a 2011 high amount with the ECB. And the flip side, or looking at the ECB's Marginal Lending Facility, which does just as it says, shows that €1.4 billion in cash was loaned out from the ECB to "needy" banks - the highest since the €3.4 billion lent out September 14.
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Here i did some further checking on patterns to make some sense in future events predicted by some of my charts:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=580#p34357
By comparing the interesting way DJIA follows Greeces Athens General index with a 1,5 year delay, including current drop ( august/september) . The patterns match almost exactly, and also compare well to my own prediction of DJIA 2011-2013 ( see in the post I referred to).
Briefly: First, have a look at the pictures :
DJIA/Greece comparison April 30, 2011:
DJIA / Greece comparison October 3rd, 2011:
Longest DJIA prediction I have made on April 26th, 2011( not from Greeces graphs, from other patterns I use) :
Since both currencies are pegged ( Greece to EUR, USA to being a world reserve currency) , at the moment where the predicted DJIA stops falling like Greece but becomes stable or even grows due to inflation, the USA DEFAULTS and deflation is replaced by inflation. By looking at Greeces graph that takes a sharp downturn(on Greeces graph, April 2011) into levels DJIA will never reach, and calibrating the time axis of DJIA graph forward, the day of inflection point is Jan 1st, 2015, or roughly, H2 2014. That is the day when USD will be unpegged ( as Greece is still pegged) = meaning the USA will default VERY soon after that or at that time, and USA deflation will change to inflation.
That gives some time for silver stackers, I guess, since as long as USD stays as a reserve currency and deflates, and the price of silver in USD goes up at the time deflation begins, it will allow them to purchase more other things with this silver. This period will last for 2 years-long enough to prepare for what comes next. This crisis is much more stretched out than 1929 crisis.
The question still remains, why at deflation start, silver will move up 3 times while gold only 10-20%. But now its more clear where to look for answers as the scope has been narrowed.
I was using the ECB as of yesterday...today I've shifted to a hole in the ground.
/Pressure_off
I'm all for sentance construction.
The latest liquidity measure lasted only 4 days – DAMN.
Europe down but futures in the US seem to be holding up...
i'd argue that's actually more bearish than seeing them down 15 or 20 handles - no big gap to fill for the algos, so it's a grind down all day
should be good for +5 or +10 ES handles
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right, i paid 2.99 for a dildo which usually costs 29.99. but the batteries died while the dildo was....., now what am i gonna do?
If you are closer to retirement age, shift the bulk of your investments out of riskier stocks and into safer places, such as certificates of deposit or money market funds. It's always wise to diversify, meaning that your investments should be a mix of stocks, bonds and cash. Thanks a lot.
Regards,
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