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Economic Countdown To The Olympics 4: Would The Euro Be A Winning Team?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With just a few days left until the pre-opening soccer games begin in the UK, we continue our five part series (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3) on the intersection between markets and the Olympics by considering whether an integrated Europe would have performed relatively better - i.e. would 2+2>4 - and what are the factors. Goldman's analysis of the pros and cons of 'integrating' their Olympic teams is extremely apropos the current deteriorating (yet desperately dreaming of improving) coordination of these 17 disparate nations. The answer, of course, is that there are some benefits from this medal 'integration' in specific cases but since German reunification, their medal performance has deteriorated - even in the team events where aggregating talent pools should have its greatest gains. In a 'zero-sum' context such as competing for Olympic medals, Germany's gains must come at the expense of other countries - and rather notably there are few French medal winners before or after an 'integration. Sounds familiar?

Goldman Sachs: Would the Euro area Make a Medal-Winning Olympic Team?

“Wir sind jetzt die Nummer 1 in der Welt … Jetzt kommen die Spieler aus Ostdeutschland noch dazu. … Es tut mir leid für den Rest der Welt, aber wir werden in den nächsten Jahren nicht zu besiegen sein.”

 

(trans.) “We are already the best team in the world, and now we are going to add the top players from East Germany. … It is a pity for everyone else, but we will be unbeatable for the foreseeable future.”

 

Franz Beckenbauer, speaking at the press conference following the 1990 World Cup final. In 1990, Germany was reunified (under Chancellor Helmut Kohl) and won the World Cup (under the management of Beckenbauer).

A Unified Approach to the Olympics?

If the Olympic teams of Euro area countries were to unify in the manner of their monetary policies, what impact would this have on their Olympic medal-winning performance?

Applying the logic of Franz Beckenbauer to the Euro area would suggest a significant improvement. If, as Beckenbauer expected, a united Germany would outperform the two separate Germanies, an Olympic team combining the sporting prowess of 17 Euro area countries should excel. At a minimum, on the basis of Beckenbauer’s logic, one would expect a combined Euro area team to win more medals than the sum of those won by teams from its constituent individual parts.

Integration: Pros and Cons

But there is an important caveat here. While combining forces will improve the quality of a team by widening and deepening the pool of talent from which selection can be made, it also reduces the number of entries in the competition. For a team sport like soccer, the benefits of the former are likely to outweigh the costs of the latter: hence Beckenbauer’s assertion.

In the Olympics, individual rather than team sports dominate: a unified Euro area team would have a significantly smaller number of competitors than 17 individual countries. Where margins of winning are small and (as a result) luck inevitably plays a relatively more substantial role in determining results, having fewer entrants may lower the final medal tally.

A variety of other relevant factors also support the expectation of better medal performance from a unified team:

  • The intra-Euro area competition implied by the need to select Olympic entrants from a much wider pool may force athletes to train harder simply to be selected, honing their skills in a way that makes them more competitive on the global Olympic stage. 
  • Focusing the resources of the Euro area as a whole on a smaller number of top quality athletes with a real chance of winning medals would improve the overall medal count relative to a situation where those resources are distributed over a broader set of entrants with, on average, less likelihood of taking gold. 
  • Allowing high class athletes to specialise in their best event in the knowledge that others of a similar standard will focus on other events can improve their performance and thus the overall medal return.

Against these, there are other factors which operate in the opposite direction—after all, despite Beckenbauer’s confidence, Germany has failed to add to its three World Cup triumphs since reunification:

  • One cannot deny the role that national pride plays in driving sporting excellence. In the unforgiving environment of international sport, the extra motivation taken from representing one’s country may have a decisive effect: while athletes may be inspired to extra efforts by competing for Germany or France, representing a Euro area team may not arouse the same passion—and results could suffer as a consequence.
  • Support from the stands—again, something that may make a difference when the line between success and failure is so narrow—may be less passionate for a ‘remote’ Euro area than for a home country enjoying a greater emotional connection.
  • Lastly, in order to raise their profile and status, small countries may be prepared to devote a greater share of national resources to achieve sporting success. East Germany is a case in point—although its welldocumented programme of institutionalised doping illustrates how such nationalistic ambitions can lead in dangerous and damaging directions.

German Lessons

The German experience offers some insight into how Olympic performance could be improved by unifying teams at the Euro area level. The table on the previous page shows the medals won by Germans at the Olympics before and after reunification in 1990.

At first glance, the table does not suggest that German reunification led to a significant improvement in medalwinning performance. On the contrary, East Germany alone won more medals (and more gold medals) at the six Olympic Games prior to reunification than the united Germany has won in the five Games since. The number of medals won per participant is also much lower for the unified Germany than it was for East Germany before reunification.

Looks Like Team Spirit

This first table shows overall medal performance. Given the distinction we made between team and individual events above, in the second table we focus on team sports and evaluate how reunification influenced Olympic performance in these events. It is in this domain that the benefits of integration are likely to be most pronounced.

We first compare the combined medal performance of the two German teams prior to reunification with that of a unified German team since: the difference in shown in column A of the table below. Economists call this an ‘event study’ analysis—we simply look at changes ‘before and after’. The exercise shows mixed results: better performance in hockey, but worse in football (for example).

But, as economists, we are sceptical of such simple ‘before and after’ comparisons. In our view, these exercises offer a poor guide to the impact of unification on medal-winning performance: they fail to control for other factors that have influenced German success at the Olympics over the period we are studying. Ideally, we would seek to control for these other factors and identify the impact of unification more precisely, so as to develop a more refined view of what would happen if—other things equal—teams were to unify elsewhere.

To illustrate, consider the rise of China: it only started routinely participating in the Olympics at the Los Angeles Games in 1984, but has subsequently invested heavily in improving its sporting performance (and, of course, has a vast pool of potential talent to draw upon).

Chinese entry has affected the medal-winning opportunities of other countries, including Germany. It was easier to win medals prior to 1984 (and thus before German reunification) than after. If we do not control for this effect, we would end up with a (downward) biased estimate of the impact of reunification, which would lead us to forecast too weak an impact of Euro area integration on Olympic medals won.

Economists use an approach called ‘difference-indifferences’ estimation to deal with this problem. This approach compares the change in performance in the case of interest with the change seen in a control group over the same period. The differences between these two changes in performance (i.e., the ‘difference-indifferences’) captures what is special about the case being studied, controlling for other factors that influence the control group.

To use our example above, by comparing how German medal performance changed across reunification with how (say) French medal performance changed over the same period, we purge the impact of Chinese Olympic participation from our estimate of the impact of German reunification, since both Germany and France will have been influenced by China.

Not surprisingly, the key challenge in applying this approach is to identify a good control group. Two criteria are relevant here: (1) controls should perform similarly to Germany prior to reunification; and (2) controls should not experience a spill-over from the impact of reunification on German performance.

The latter criterion is challenging: in a ‘zero sum’ context like competing for Olympic medals, Germany’s gains must come at the expense of other countries. Nonetheless, we apply this difference-in-differences approach and select France as the control. The results are shown in column B of the table on the previous page.

Across the set of sports evaluated, the results remain mixed. We do see some cases of improvement, notably in hockey. But on average we identify a deterioration in German medal-winning performance after reunification.

However, a closer look at the table reveals that France may not be a very good control group. There are few French medal winners in the sports we consider, either before or after reunification. While this suggests caution in interpreting the difference-in-differences result, evaluating the robustness of our base case by using US results as an alternative control (not shown, for brevity) does not alter the conclusions.

Benefits of Sporting Integration

Our analysis identifies benefits from sporting integration in specific cases, but these cannot be generalised across all events. On average, German medal performance at the Olympics has deteriorated since reunification, even in the team events where the benefits should have been greatest.

 

We have identified a large number of potential pros and cons of unification: to capture the benefits, one naturally needs to develop a structure that maximises the former and minimises the latter. This requires a high degree of institutional development.

 

Sounds familiar? These messages may resonate with the Euro area’s ongoing attempts to grapple with its financial and sovereign crises.

Andrew Benito and Huw Pill

 

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Sat, 07/21/2012 - 19:10 | 2639414 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

FUGS!

Sat, 07/21/2012 - 19:17 | 2639419 Precious
Precious's picture

If all truth were revealed, men would wither in shame.

Sat, 07/21/2012 - 19:48 | 2639448 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

What's shame?

 

 

/sarc

Sat, 07/21/2012 - 21:54 | 2639616 flacon
flacon's picture

Depends on what the meaning of the word "'s" is.

 

You can almost smell the Death Odors!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvbOX9mEwvA

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 00:49 | 2639807 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

What's shame?

When a banker is forced to work in food service in a plexiglass cage for the rest of his life, on display to anyone who wants to hear them say "Would you like fries with that, sir?".

Sat, 07/21/2012 - 20:24 | 2639491 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

There are no men in GS. Well, no one that could rightly be called a man. Shame indeed!

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 08:04 | 2639919 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

truth? the truth is that the olympic games were never economic. they began as an agreement between statelets to refrain from war every four years and to engage in peaceful games. with the added value - in the Greek context at the beginning of the iron age - of making alliances against outsiders easier. the most sought prize was that for poetry, btw, making the Greek language a stronger cultural force.

Am I the only one wondering about the immense "thinking-cap" pressure the Squid and JPM are applying in writing articles meant to "explain" that the EUR is a "bad, bad idea"? The gentlemen writing pieces about this cost, and require huge bonuses. Lots of expensive brainpower being applied on what I consider third rate propaganda. They are comparing games to the economics of a currency, which just reminds me how closely their views of finance are near to their views about games and betting.

-----

either you look at the EUR as a fancy multi-currency grid - something we europeans have already tried, since the advent of the first completely-unbacked fiat global reserve currency, or it's the next best thing we can have that behaves like gold. and don't misunderstand me, a gold/gold-ike curency can be a harsh mistress, for economies, exposing many ugly truths.

meanwhile, you will never read an article from GS or JPM explaining why we continental europeans wanted and still want the EUR, why every one of the 17 nations was willing to scrap that powerful national "totem" that is the own currency with the national pride symbols on it.

>> Nixon, 1971 to the world outside the dollarzone: "it's our currency, and your problem" <<

writhe and squirm, Holy Vampire Squid, JPM et al, how does your own medicine taste?

Sat, 07/21/2012 - 19:12 | 2639417 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"...and rather notably there are few French medal winners before or after an 'integration."

Which brings up a question...at what sport do the French excel at anyways?

Sat, 07/21/2012 - 19:25 | 2639427 knukles
knukles's picture

Arrogance, body odor, oenology (for real), surrender (along with the eye-ties, so another southern bond) umm, uh and errrr harrumph

Oh, and vacation.  They're great at vacations

PS  Get Little Jimbo O'Neil on this before his vetting for the Bank of England.  Polish up that old curriculum vitae.

Sat, 07/21/2012 - 19:41 | 2639440 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Ok...I had to look up oenology...now theres an under appreciated sport...lol...along with competitive arm pit hair weaving.

I think they got great shot at walking off with someone elses gold right there, maybe Jimbo can hook up with former PM Brown and get some pointers ;-)

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 07:13 | 2639942 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Well said knuckles.

The French and Italians are expert at the fine art of surrender.  Just the other day I was reading another tomb of the second world war and found out an interesting fact.  French tanks only had 12 reverse gears, whereas the Italians had 16.

Bet you never knew that eh?  Oh, and did you hear that the Italian navy has a new fleet of glass bottomed vessels?

Its so they can see the old Italian navy.  :-)   Sorry if any french or italian ZHers are offened in advance........... I couldnt give a fuck anyhoo......

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 08:17 | 2639969 mark7
mark7's picture

Ignorant idiots like you never understand how big Battle of France was. Allied: 85000 killed , 12000 missing, 120000 wounded, in the German side 27000 killed, 111000 wounded and 18000 missing. Invasion of Normandy was nothing compared to that mammoth battle. Over 6.5 million men total was in that battle. Over 5000 tanks and about 9000 aircrafts fought over France. Biggest battle ever in history back then.

Germany went all-in in that battle, threw everything they got and then some. Germans also got very lucky. The German tank armies went too far, too fast without adequate logistics supporting them and was very vulnerable against flank attack but by then Allied forces were in total disarray.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 08:32 | 2639988 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Idiot?

Okey doke mate, calm down.  Do you understand what a joke is?  Good god, if you cannot take the piss every now again what fucking hope have we got?

Wind your neck in, I lost family in both wars, you still have to keep a perspective on things, a joke is a joke.

Sat, 07/21/2012 - 19:51 | 2639451 q99x2
q99x2's picture

'Would The Euro Be A Winning Team?' If Americans could afford their cable bills they might find out. As it is, no one will be watching this year. And, Murdoch won't be telling anyone anything either. Fuck the mainstream media. We're doubling down for the upcoming DHS gun grab.

Sat, 07/21/2012 - 20:34 | 2639509 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

I am expecting Olympics viewership to be pimped, Cramer-like, then quietly revised downward in late August.

Now if they added catfish noodling or a pole vault over Kardashians derriere, we might be talking some serious numbers ("Egad, both pole and the Moroccan vaulter have disappeared into her spincter")

Sat, 07/21/2012 - 21:44 | 2639612 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

how about a pole vault "into" a kardashian's derriere-then again they might be okay with it as they "date" alot of negroes

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 00:05 | 2639758 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Lots of intel/rumors about a false-flag during the olympics..

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 08:45 | 2639993 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

The meme of whose fault it will be if something happens is already being established in the public consciousness. This is up on Drudge's site now:

 

ISRAEL FEARS IRAN ATTACK AT OLYMPICS

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 00:08 | 2639759 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Can't win for losing. Only National Champions cheat to win. Only the fool "does it for the love of sport." Real Madrid shows the way: Empires are not to be trifled with. Call it nationalism, call it mashionalism...don't mess with the Spanish when the chips are down. The Nazi's destroyed the promise of the Western World. What exists to replace it? Sure not the white man's burden! I'm going long the British Banker's Association...and not by choice!

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 00:17 | 2639768 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

The Nazis restored the promise of the Western World

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 01:14 | 2639831 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

The Smith's The Queen is Dead

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz5IFl7uCis

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 02:43 | 2639876 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Tyler, wo kommst Du eigentlich her?

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 22:43 | 2641539 Meta Fundamentalist
Meta Fundamentalist's picture

Aus der Realität, die für uns alle in Prismen der selben Realität zerfällt, eine Interpretation hier:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69u-a7R5kTc&feature=plcp

oder auch anders.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 06:56 | 2639938 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

What is good with US citizens: time saving.

US citizens are used to pouring a pack of lies so big it requests submission to accept them or agree with the lies before hand.

So negative factors are quoted: Test group: W/E germany.

When re united, the West/East Germans are supposed to be affected by lack of national pride, lack of support from the stands when competiting under the flag of reunited Germany.

It does stop there: and here, the usual big US citizen lie, in the zero sum environment, taking from small consumers will help up big consumers in even bigger consumption schemes.

It is noted and announced (courtesy of US citizen authors) so they cant be blamed when one chooses to believe that US citizen driven (then feeble) analysis.

Some other US citizens who think they deserve every single cent they make.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 10:06 | 2640091 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

2 + 2 > 4 ALWAYS

(Krugmoron told me so)

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 11:44 | 2640274 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

SP500 downleg expected to continue next week onwards.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 14:09 | 2640517 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture

choices what will  it be.

libyan chemicals

israeli nuke

remember londons olympic security g4s is mossad

and guess who owns all the transport cctv companies

and the bulgarian airport cameras nearly always israel

staged terror needs footage for context and award winning post event documentaries.

is it a conspiracy that an israeli firm ran security and cctv at fukishima or is it fact

we are talking a nexus of pink skin evil.

us,uk and israel

 

we are often told how much the olympics is once in a lifetime event how special.

what has this man been told

something wicked this way comes.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israeli-president-sh...

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 10:22 | 2642410 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

here we go again

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