Economic Data Dump Keeps Everyone Confused, Pessimism About Future Increases

Tyler Durden's picture


We bring you "baffle with bullshit" Tuesday edition, where retail Sales ex-autos and gas miss consensus modestly, but the Empire Manufacturing beats by a mile... even as forward business conditions slide to lowest since October.

To summarize:

  • Consumer Price Index: monthly change prints at 0.0%, same as expectations of 0.0%; Core CPI +0.2% also same as expected: source
  • April Retail sales: headline +0.1% same as consensus, and lowest of 2012; Ex-Autos and gas +0.1% missing consensus of 0.3%, and the lowest since December: source
    • Data shows declining gasoline sales offset rising rents and overall retail sales, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
    • Retail sales “very weak,” with “consumer reacting to dwindling real incomes,” says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
  • Empire State Index (May): + 17.09; +9.0...but six months forward outlook is just dismal: source
    • Number of employees up to highest since May 2011 from 19.28 to 20.48... remember: Baffle with BS
    • New orders 8.32 in May after 6.48 in April
    • Shipments 24.14 after 6.41
    • Inventories 4.82 after 1.2

Current Empire General Business Conditions:

and 6 months forward General Business Conditions:

As usual, the Fed retains the option to do NEW QE... and it has the option not to. All up to Europe.

And this month's special Empire Fed Survey:

Firms Expect Moderate Increases in Input and Selling Prices

The supplementary questions in the May 2012 Empire State Manufacturing Survey focused on past and expected changes in both the prices fi rms pay for inputs and the prices they charge their customers. Some of the same questions had previously been asked in surveys conducted in May 2011 and earlier.

Respondents estimated that the prices they paid for inputs rose 3.6 percent, on average, over the past twelve months—down substantially from 8.1 percent in last May’s survey. The median increase reported in the current survey was 3.0 percent, down from 5.0 percent. The average and median increases anticipated for the next twelve months were virtually identical: 3.5 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively. Both measures were 2 percentage points lower than the corresponding expectations in last May’s survey.

In response to a question about the perceived probabilities of various price scenarios, firms in the current survey estimated a 9 percent chance, on average, that prices paid would rise by 8 percent or more, and a 64 percent chance that prices paid would rise by at least 2 percent. These probabilities are considerably lower than those cited in last May’s survey but not all that different from those reported in the May 2010 survey.

Respondents in the current survey, on average, indicated a 5 percent chance that prices would decline by more than 2 percent—a slightly higher probability than in last year’s survey. The likelihood that prices would remain relatively steady (within 2 percent of current levels) was  seen to be about 30 percent. In assessing past changes in their selling prices, fi rms reported an average price increase of 1.7 percent and a median increase of 2.0 percent—both about the same as in last May’s survey. Looking ahead to the next twelve months, fi rms predicted a 2.1 percent average increase and a 3.0 percent median increase—down from 3.6 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, in last year’s survey. Respondents, on  average, saw a less than 5 percent chance that they would raise their selling prices by 8 percent or more but a 48 percent chance that they  would raise prices by at least 2 percent.  Both probabilities are lower than estimated in last May’s survey. At the other end of the spectrum, the average respondent reported a roughly one in ten chance that selling prices would fall 2 percent or more—a somewhat higher probability than that cited in last May’s survey.

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Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:46 | 2426366 Debtless
Debtless's picture

See the recovery Danny. Be, be the recovery Danny. Ma, make the recovery Danny.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:58 | 2426394 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Germany returns to growth as EU avoids recession 

State employed economists spewing lies through state sanctioned media outlets.

Double plus good, comrades. Now if I could only find the 're education' camp, I'd be a healthy machine.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:48 | 2426368 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Is there anyone that isn't dazed and confused right now? Hold your hand up....we don't want to leave anyone out.


Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:48 | 2426370 Banksters
Banksters's picture

If we stick our heads in our asses, we'll see the numbers clearly.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:47 | 2426371 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Dump, flush, rinse, repeat

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:49 | 2426377 Joeprimo55
Joeprimo55's picture


And after revision -1%

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:50 | 2426378 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Hiring is starting to pick up up well as energy production. A CPI print of zero is a big deal. "could be worse...probably is negative actually." and of course a DEFLATION makes borrowing 100 billion a week look like borrowing...101 billion a week. I'm sure if we all chip here we can fix this!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:51 | 2426381 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Oh they are good. Now they are going to just match consensus.  Beating might be too bullish for QE3, missing would help the bears so now its just a game of match.  This probably came straight from the White House, well played.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:58 | 2426397 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Let's not forget that consumer confidence highest since January 2008!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 09:08 | 2426419 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Seems like the roulette wheel landed on " Bullshit 'Em", Again...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 09:11 | 2426432 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The death star has been destroyed, now the empire strikes back.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 09:21 | 2426454 Mercury
Mercury's picture

I don't think this Empire survey even solicits actual numbers (or at least not this section) so, you fill in a different bubble from what you filled in last month (of the three choices available) and that's at least a 33% change.  ~200 mailed out, ~100 mailed back.  Doesn't seem very illuminating.


Tue, 05/15/2012 - 09:21 | 2426478 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Is Monitization Three coming? ... Why in the hell do you think that they are using paper derivatives to trash gold, silver, and oil? ... Can't have Monitization Three announced with those canaries singing ... Make them recover from much lower prices when Monitization Three is announced; just like they did for Monitization One and Two.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:20 | 2426835 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Point estimates with these surveys are almost worthless. Trends of this data, by itself, is a little bit better than worthless. Trend data correlated with other economic trend data is better than worthless. Good analyst with years of experience can give useful insight of current economic status.

The real problem is the stupid, mindless, EXCLUSIVE driven media that pumps these factoids to the muppets. ZeroHedgers are the best!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:35 | 2426908 KandiRaverHipster
KandiRaverHipster's picture

who's idea was it to configure the time-axis in reverse for that Empire manufacturing index?  is it some type of ploy to mess with alternate hemispheres of the brain and create optimism? 

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