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Economic Data Flood Summary: Claims, Housing Noisy, CPI May Return "Disinflation" Talk At FOMC Meeting

Tyler Durden's picture




 

First, Initial Claims - the new yoyo.

  • Initial claims drop from revised 402K (as expected) in last week, to 352K this week, 50K swing in one week, on expectations of 384K. All in the seasonal adjustment, which tries to compensate for the 124K drop in Non Seasonally Adjusted claims. Fired bankers and everyone else no longer registers to the B(L)S.
  • This number was below the lowest Wall Street estimate of 363K.
  • Continuing claims: 3.432MM, below expectations of 3.590MM, previous revised naturally higher from 3.628MM to 3.647MM. The reason? People on EUC and Extended benefits in last week: +105,000. More and more people move away from 6 month support to extended 99 week cliff.
  • The decline in continuing claims was 215K, and the number of 3.432MM was the lowest since Sept 6, 2008, the week before the Lehman collapse (h/t Stone McCarthy)
  • Decline likely “function of seasonal distortion,” likely “exaggerates strength in the labor market,” says BBG economist Joseph Brusuelas

  • Source

Housing Starts and Permits:

  • Largely irrelevant, as crawling at a bottom, but starts at 657K, below expectations of 680K, and down from 685K previously
  • Permits in line with expectations at 679K, down from 680K before
  • Volatile’’ multifamily dwellings category eased “slightly,” says Brusuelas. Even so, MFDs “likely to remain quite stout due” on modest increase in household formation, ownership-to-renter transition, tight apartments supply. Housing “still dead,” says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
  • Source

CPI:

  • Headline CPI at 0.0% vs expectations of 0.1%, unchanged from last month
  • Core CPI: +0.1% in line with expectations of +0.1 and down from 0.2% previously
  • "Weak domestic aggregate demand,’’ slowing global economy likely to continue downward pressure on prices, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
  • Fed “clearly concerned with the return of disinflation;” watch for “talk of further central bank action to support the economy” at next week’s FOMC meeting, says Brusuelas 
  • Source

Slowly all the high frequency economic data are becoming increasingly meaningless, noisy, volatile and unpredictable. Just as the government wants it to be.

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Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:49 | 2077488 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

The unemployment data is a total joke at this point. A 50K swing in one week after revising the previous week higher yet again????

If the Republicans had any brains (they don't) they should be calling for a full scale investigation into the BLS. Drag them before a congressional committee every day until the truth comes out. But they're in on the scam also so it will never happen.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2077577 SeanJKerrigan
SeanJKerrigan's picture

Well, far be it for me to defend the government, but last weeks was revised up only by 3,000, a relatively small amount. (or am I misreading this?  Nevermind, I think I am) It will be more interesting to see what the situation looks like on February 3, which is when I think the next unemployment numbers come out.

By the way, Denninger has an interview out saying the debt will crush the government in the next 2 to 3 years, maybe sooner.  Nothing we didn't already know, but its sobering to hear it so explicitly stated.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:46 | 2077607 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

How long has it been since any congressional committee has produced any real results again?  The trade wars are just beginning people.  The real productive labor is already shrugging as more and more paper-pushing fucknuts and their political puppets continue to try and defend the status quo.  Hedge accordingly.  The malinvestment continues as none of the structural problems have been addressed and none of the fraud has been prosecuted.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:47 | 2077912 economics1996
economics1996's picture

 

For those calling bull shit on the labor numbers look at the civilian work force numbers, which are declining, and civilians employed, which are the people who actually make goods and services.  Employment was down 389,000 from November to December.  For those interested in getting around the Ministry of Truth go to the FRED web site for the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:56 | 2078208 SeanJKerrigan
SeanJKerrigan's picture

I'm looking forward to Q4 2011 GDP next friday.  Anyone care to take bets?  I haven't heard any estimates, which is a bit unusual.  I'm gonna just throw 1.5 out there based on nothing, but I'm interested in hearing if there are more well thought out opinions.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:50 | 2077489 emsolý
emsolý's picture

More like: Disinflation clearly concerned with the Fed...

But at least the CPI weightings are not being changed.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:27 | 2077593 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Re:  "Fed clearly concerned with the return of disinflation'

              Yeah, disinformation doesn't make that kind of thing go away.  In the end, the real market will rule the day; the Fed be damned.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:50 | 2077491 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Crock of shit all of it and that includes BAC.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:50 | 2077492 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Enjoy as long as one can.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:51 | 2077496 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Rans:

'Baltic Dry Index falls 3.6% to 893 points'

We're going into a trade war.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:22 | 2077580 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Been saying this for over a year, but I will simply predict that the trade war is only just beginning.  Wait until things get going in earnest.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2077585 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

actually it's called "an acutal war." and "we've been in it for ten years." but who's counting? "just a murder/suicide pact"...nothing more.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:53 | 2077500 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Egan downgrades Germany

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:53 | 2077501 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"Slowly all the high frequency economic data are becoming increasingly meaningless, noisy, volatile and unpredictable"

and the market is the only safe haven for those who wish of a place to make money with no volatility.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:25 | 2077591 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Robo calls it "Uncle Gorilla paper" actually. And he's been right on that. Just sayin' that's all...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:53 | 2077502 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I call a top in the ES today. 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:56 | 2077507 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Rans:

'Denis Gartman says S&P 500 will end the year at 1650' So is Gartman inadvertently..
Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:56 | 2077509 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

you should change your name to slaughtered. The Obama re-election put is in.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2077586 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I'm with you, dude. The rally looks played out, everything points to a top. I'll go one step further and say we're at the high for the year (several years). I could be wrong, it might have another little pop left, but the next wave down is going to be epic.

(P.S. to anyone inclined to discount Slaughterer's call, he went long BAC at $5.04 when it was plunging, and look at him now. I say again, great call Slaughterer)

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:26 | 2077594 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am completely with him in spirit. I am hoping in making that joke I have to eat my words instead of my losses.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:01 | 2077718 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I hear you, man. I hear you.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:32 | 2077614 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well hey, at least you are making a call.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:03 | 2077723 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

My ES top call for today stands.  I call it the "anti-Doug-Kass" call.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:56 | 2077506 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The Fed and the Treasury want to both print money and make it retain value via interventions and manipulations.  A perfect cocktail for economic destruction as the currency becomes a mere advertising gimmick, impossible for use in trade.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:58 | 2077513 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If all currencies are going down at the same time does it matter? If you are on a train going backwards at 20mph and another train passes you going backwards 40mph I guess in this world you really are going forward.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:17 | 2077559 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Just rephrasing really but if the stable ground (gold) is your reference point, your speed is 20. You're just going in the "wrong" direction. Light does not go backwards but does seem to find the crack(s).

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:03 | 2077527 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The amount of credit swaps being written and handed over to the primary dealers is of great concern. If and it is a big if the US gets downgraded again these banks holding this interest rate swap will be in deep harm.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:56 | 2077510 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Speaking of data fudging....

So Ron Paul came in 3rd in Iowa by a margin equivalent to that of a crowded night at the AMC in Fashion Valley Mall. 

...8 Precincts missing, votes will never be counted

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:58 | 2077514 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Ballots are supposed to replace bullet in political decisions making.  The people attempting to subvert the process had better understand that. 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:01 | 2077521 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

Even if 80% of ppl vote for Ron Paul he will never win as long as the vote counting belongs to Diebold/NWO.  I think Americans will have to end up voting for change on the streets

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:03 | 2077525 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I'm starting to think you're right.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:19 | 2077567 William113
William113's picture

That's what I have been telling people for years. Your vote does not count. Only the 2% counts.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 15:13 | 2078797 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

Hence NDAA.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:13 | 2077548 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Who gives a fuck what the Children of the Corn think?

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:36 | 2077630 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Watch that attitude.  It's a straight line from there to autocracy.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:50 | 2077675 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

As opposed to theocracy? (Santorum? Srsly?!)

Or plutocracy? (at least with respect to Monsanto/ADM's subsidies and monopoly market position)

Maybe I'd rather listen to people who know that getting paid off to burn food is ethically dubious at best than participate in fawning over non-binding kabuki.

'Pone' is an appropos term, I think.

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:44 | 2077902 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Ok, if you don't want to listen to the will of the people, feel free to move to North Korea.

Or just stay here a few more years.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:59 | 2077515 slovester
slovester's picture

Reading the BLS report, http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm the following section would seem to show just how much "seasonal adjustment" makes things look much better.  Hard to imagine how the totals dropped 50K when considering these numbers:

UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 01/07/2012

STATES WITH A DECREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000 

State

Change

 

State Supplied Comment

WI

-7,657

 

No comment.

MI

-5,208

 

No comment.

IA

-4,675

 

Fewer layoffs in the manufacturing industry.

NJ

-4,667

 

Fewer layoffs in the service, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing industries.

KY

-3,577

 

No comment.

AR

-1,563

 

No comment.

STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000 

State

Change

 

State Supplied Comment

NY

+29,389

 

Layoffs in the transportation, educational, and construction industries.

CA

+22,168

 

Layoffs in the service, agriculture, and fishing industries.

TX

+13,946

 

Layoffs in the manufacturing and service industries.

NC

+7,865

 

Layoff in the non classifiable establishments, textile, rubber, plastic, and electronic industries.

GA

+7,225

 

Layoffs in the manufacturing, service, trade, and construction industries.

PA

+6,441

 

Layoffs in the construction, service, and retail industries.

TN

+6,289

 

Layoffs in the service, specialty trade contractors, construction, service, and recreation industries.

AL

+4,612

 

Layoffs in the transportation, construction, and wood product industries.

FL

+3,744

 

Layoffs in the agriculture, construction, manufacturing, trade, retail, and service industries.

SC

+3,273

 

Layoffs in the manufacturing and textile industries.

VA

+3,196

 

Layoffs in the manufacturing industry.

WA

+2,646

 

Layoffs in the manufacturing, retail, transportation and warehousing, finance and insurance, and public administration industries.

IL

+2,573

 

Layoffs in the construction, service, and trade industries.

MO

+2,367

 

Layoffs in the service, retail, and construction industries.

AZ

+2,364

 

No comment.

AK

+2,204

 

No comment.

CO

+1,799

 

No comment.

IN

+1,454

 

Layoffs in the manufacturing and retail industries.

UT

+1,423

 

Layoffs due to the holiday.

CT

+1,416

 

No comment.

NV

+1,271

 

Layoff due to the holiday.

ME

+1,173

 

Layoffs in the construction,retail, and service industries.

LA

+1,153

 

No comment.

WV

+1,109

 

Layoffs in the agriculture, forest, fishing, mining, construction, retail, transportation and warehousing, finance and insurance, public administration, and service industries.

MS

+1,017

 

No comment.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:47 | 2077666 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Careful, speaking the truth will get you put on the terror watch list.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:09 | 2077743 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

...just means less people were fired than the previous week.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:00 | 2077516 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture
Kodak files for bankruptcy, secures $950 mln lifeline

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/19/kodak-idUSL3E8CJ20N20120119

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:56 | 2077701 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Gee who could have seen this coming?
Will Kodak film go on fire sale? And how do I load it into my digital camera?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:01 | 2077522 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

By the way that whole 99 week deal did they not extend that even more with the payroll deal? Shouldn't it be closer to 102. Nearly 2 freaking years? Give me a break.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:03 | 2077526 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Just buy buy buy....

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:05 | 2077531 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

Anyone notice that the baltic dry index went into the basement???!!!  It is just 260 points from the December 2008 low.  Is there any correlations with the baltic and the financial markets?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:11 | 2077544 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Mitch from the WSJ:

Once upon a time, this would have caused panicking in the streets, but it’s only causing mild eyebrow-raising exercises this time.

The Baltic Dry index, which measures the cost of shipping dry goods around the world, has collapsed by 55% since October 14. That’s stone-cold horrible, but this index has cried wolf enough in the recent past that we’ve learned to ignore it.

It melted down for much of 2009 and 2010, including a 63% drop in the early summer of 2009, without foretelling an economic collapse.

The big problem for the Baltic Dry is that there are still too many ships in the world

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:28 | 2077600 Kali
Kali's picture

I like Harpex better, but looks just as bad.                 http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexVP.do

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:38 | 2077634 tmosley
tmosley's picture

*implying we haven't had a series of economic collapses that have been papered over.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:53 | 2077691 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

exactly.  Silver has provided highest return for 2012 so far by the way.

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