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Economic Data Flood Summary: Claims, Housing Noisy, CPI May Return "Disinflation" Talk At FOMC Meeting

Tyler Durden's picture


First, Initial Claims - the new yoyo.

  • Initial claims drop from revised 402K (as expected) in last week, to 352K this week, 50K swing in one week, on expectations of 384K. All in the seasonal adjustment, which tries to compensate for the 124K drop in Non Seasonally Adjusted claims. Fired bankers and everyone else no longer registers to the B(L)S.
  • This number was below the lowest Wall Street estimate of 363K.
  • Continuing claims: 3.432MM, below expectations of 3.590MM, previous revised naturally higher from 3.628MM to 3.647MM. The reason? People on EUC and Extended benefits in last week: +105,000. More and more people move away from 6 month support to extended 99 week cliff.
  • The decline in continuing claims was 215K, and the number of 3.432MM was the lowest since Sept 6, 2008, the week before the Lehman collapse (h/t Stone McCarthy)
  • Decline likely “function of seasonal distortion,” likely “exaggerates strength in the labor market,” says BBG economist Joseph Brusuelas

  • Source

Housing Starts and Permits:

  • Largely irrelevant, as crawling at a bottom, but starts at 657K, below expectations of 680K, and down from 685K previously
  • Permits in line with expectations at 679K, down from 680K before
  • Volatile’’ multifamily dwellings category eased “slightly,” says Brusuelas. Even so, MFDs “likely to remain quite stout due” on modest increase in household formation, ownership-to-renter transition, tight apartments supply. Housing “still dead,” says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
  • Source


  • Headline CPI at 0.0% vs expectations of 0.1%, unchanged from last month
  • Core CPI: +0.1% in line with expectations of +0.1 and down from 0.2% previously
  • "Weak domestic aggregate demand,’’ slowing global economy likely to continue downward pressure on prices, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
  • Fed “clearly concerned with the return of disinflation;” watch for “talk of further central bank action to support the economy” at next week’s FOMC meeting, says Brusuelas 
  • Source

Slowly all the high frequency economic data are becoming increasingly meaningless, noisy, volatile and unpredictable. Just as the government wants it to be.


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Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:49 | 2077488 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

The unemployment data is a total joke at this point. A 50K swing in one week after revising the previous week higher yet again????

If the Republicans had any brains (they don't) they should be calling for a full scale investigation into the BLS. Drag them before a congressional committee every day until the truth comes out. But they're in on the scam also so it will never happen.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2077577 SeanJKerrigan
SeanJKerrigan's picture

Well, far be it for me to defend the government, but last weeks was revised up only by 3,000, a relatively small amount. (or am I misreading this?  Nevermind, I think I am) It will be more interesting to see what the situation looks like on February 3, which is when I think the next unemployment numbers come out.

By the way, Denninger has an interview out saying the debt will crush the government in the next 2 to 3 years, maybe sooner.  Nothing we didn't already know, but its sobering to hear it so explicitly stated.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:46 | 2077607 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

How long has it been since any congressional committee has produced any real results again?  The trade wars are just beginning people.  The real productive labor is already shrugging as more and more paper-pushing fucknuts and their political puppets continue to try and defend the status quo.  Hedge accordingly.  The malinvestment continues as none of the structural problems have been addressed and none of the fraud has been prosecuted.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:47 | 2077912 economics1996
economics1996's picture


For those calling bull shit on the labor numbers look at the civilian work force numbers, which are declining, and civilians employed, which are the people who actually make goods and services.  Employment was down 389,000 from November to December.  For those interested in getting around the Ministry of Truth go to the FRED web site for the St. Louis Federal Reserve.


Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:56 | 2078208 SeanJKerrigan
SeanJKerrigan's picture

I'm looking forward to Q4 2011 GDP next friday.  Anyone care to take bets?  I haven't heard any estimates, which is a bit unusual.  I'm gonna just throw 1.5 out there based on nothing, but I'm interested in hearing if there are more well thought out opinions.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:50 | 2077489 emsolý
emsolý's picture

More like: Disinflation clearly concerned with the Fed...

But at least the CPI weightings are not being changed.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:27 | 2077593 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Re:  "Fed clearly concerned with the return of disinflation'

              Yeah, disinformation doesn't make that kind of thing go away.  In the end, the real market will rule the day; the Fed be damned.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:50 | 2077491 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Crock of shit all of it and that includes BAC.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:50 | 2077492 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Enjoy as long as one can.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:51 | 2077496 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture


'Baltic Dry Index falls 3.6% to 893 points'

We're going into a trade war.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:22 | 2077580 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Been saying this for over a year, but I will simply predict that the trade war is only just beginning.  Wait until things get going in earnest.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2077585 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

actually it's called "an acutal war." and "we've been in it for ten years." but who's counting? "just a murder/suicide pact"...nothing more.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:53 | 2077500 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Egan downgrades Germany

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:53 | 2077501 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"Slowly all the high frequency economic data are becoming increasingly meaningless, noisy, volatile and unpredictable"

and the market is the only safe haven for those who wish of a place to make money with no volatility.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:25 | 2077591 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Robo calls it "Uncle Gorilla paper" actually. And he's been right on that. Just sayin' that's all...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:53 | 2077502 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I call a top in the ES today. 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:56 | 2077507 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture


'Denis Gartman says S&P 500 will end the year at 1650' So is Gartman inadvertently..
Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:56 | 2077509 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

you should change your name to slaughtered. The Obama re-election put is in.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2077586 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I'm with you, dude. The rally looks played out, everything points to a top. I'll go one step further and say we're at the high for the year (several years). I could be wrong, it might have another little pop left, but the next wave down is going to be epic.

(P.S. to anyone inclined to discount Slaughterer's call, he went long BAC at $5.04 when it was plunging, and look at him now. I say again, great call Slaughterer)

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:26 | 2077594 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am completely with him in spirit. I am hoping in making that joke I have to eat my words instead of my losses.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:01 | 2077718 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I hear you, man. I hear you.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:32 | 2077614 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well hey, at least you are making a call.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:03 | 2077723 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

My ES top call for today stands.  I call it the "anti-Doug-Kass" call.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:56 | 2077506 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The Fed and the Treasury want to both print money and make it retain value via interventions and manipulations.  A perfect cocktail for economic destruction as the currency becomes a mere advertising gimmick, impossible for use in trade.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:58 | 2077513 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If all currencies are going down at the same time does it matter? If you are on a train going backwards at 20mph and another train passes you going backwards 40mph I guess in this world you really are going forward.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:17 | 2077559 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Just rephrasing really but if the stable ground (gold) is your reference point, your speed is 20. You're just going in the "wrong" direction. Light does not go backwards but does seem to find the crack(s).

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:03 | 2077527 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The amount of credit swaps being written and handed over to the primary dealers is of great concern. If and it is a big if the US gets downgraded again these banks holding this interest rate swap will be in deep harm.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:56 | 2077510 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Speaking of data fudging....

So Ron Paul came in 3rd in Iowa by a margin equivalent to that of a crowded night at the AMC in Fashion Valley Mall. 

...8 Precincts missing, votes will never be counted

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:58 | 2077514 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Ballots are supposed to replace bullet in political decisions making.  The people attempting to subvert the process had better understand that. 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:01 | 2077521 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

Even if 80% of ppl vote for Ron Paul he will never win as long as the vote counting belongs to Diebold/NWO.  I think Americans will have to end up voting for change on the streets

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:03 | 2077525 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I'm starting to think you're right.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:19 | 2077567 William113
William113's picture

That's what I have been telling people for years. Your vote does not count. Only the 2% counts.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 15:13 | 2078797 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

Hence NDAA.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:13 | 2077548 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Who gives a fuck what the Children of the Corn think?


Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:36 | 2077630 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Watch that attitude.  It's a straight line from there to autocracy.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:50 | 2077675 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

As opposed to theocracy? (Santorum? Srsly?!)

Or plutocracy? (at least with respect to Monsanto/ADM's subsidies and monopoly market position)

Maybe I'd rather listen to people who know that getting paid off to burn food is ethically dubious at best than participate in fawning over non-binding kabuki.

'Pone' is an appropos term, I think.


Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:44 | 2077902 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Ok, if you don't want to listen to the will of the people, feel free to move to North Korea.

Or just stay here a few more years.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:59 | 2077515 slovester
slovester's picture

Reading the BLS report, the following section would seem to show just how much "seasonal adjustment" makes things look much better.  Hard to imagine how the totals dropped 50K when considering these numbers:






State Supplied Comment




No comment.




No comment.




Fewer layoffs in the manufacturing industry.




Fewer layoffs in the service, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing industries.




No comment.




No comment.





State Supplied Comment




Layoffs in the transportation, educational, and construction industries.




Layoffs in the service, agriculture, and fishing industries.




Layoffs in the manufacturing and service industries.




Layoff in the non classifiable establishments, textile, rubber, plastic, and electronic industries.




Layoffs in the manufacturing, service, trade, and construction industries.




Layoffs in the construction, service, and retail industries.




Layoffs in the service, specialty trade contractors, construction, service, and recreation industries.




Layoffs in the transportation, construction, and wood product industries.




Layoffs in the agriculture, construction, manufacturing, trade, retail, and service industries.




Layoffs in the manufacturing and textile industries.




Layoffs in the manufacturing industry.




Layoffs in the manufacturing, retail, transportation and warehousing, finance and insurance, and public administration industries.




Layoffs in the construction, service, and trade industries.




Layoffs in the service, retail, and construction industries.




No comment.




No comment.




No comment.




Layoffs in the manufacturing and retail industries.




Layoffs due to the holiday.




No comment.




Layoff due to the holiday.




Layoffs in the construction,retail, and service industries.




No comment.




Layoffs in the agriculture, forest, fishing, mining, construction, retail, transportation and warehousing, finance and insurance, public administration, and service industries.




No comment.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:47 | 2077666 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Careful, speaking the truth will get you put on the terror watch list.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:09 | 2077743 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

...just means less people were fired than the previous week.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:00 | 2077516 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture
Kodak files for bankruptcy, secures $950 mln lifeline

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:56 | 2077701 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Gee who could have seen this coming?
Will Kodak film go on fire sale? And how do I load it into my digital camera?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:01 | 2077522 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

By the way that whole 99 week deal did they not extend that even more with the payroll deal? Shouldn't it be closer to 102. Nearly 2 freaking years? Give me a break.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:03 | 2077526 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Just buy buy buy....

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:05 | 2077531 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

Anyone notice that the baltic dry index went into the basement???!!!  It is just 260 points from the December 2008 low.  Is there any correlations with the baltic and the financial markets?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:11 | 2077544 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Mitch from the WSJ:

Once upon a time, this would have caused panicking in the streets, but it’s only causing mild eyebrow-raising exercises this time.

The Baltic Dry index, which measures the cost of shipping dry goods around the world, has collapsed by 55% since October 14. That’s stone-cold horrible, but this index has cried wolf enough in the recent past that we’ve learned to ignore it.

It melted down for much of 2009 and 2010, including a 63% drop in the early summer of 2009, without foretelling an economic collapse.

The big problem for the Baltic Dry is that there are still too many ships in the world

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:28 | 2077600 Kali
Kali's picture

I like Harpex better, but looks just as bad.       


Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:38 | 2077634 tmosley
tmosley's picture

*implying we haven't had a series of economic collapses that have been papered over.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:53 | 2077691 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

exactly.  Silver has provided highest return for 2012 so far by the way.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:06 | 2077532 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Anyone been watching SKF and FAZ lately? They have been down but they have not been down nearly as much as they should be with this financials rally. Is that a function of a lot more people buying put options? Can anyone venture a thought on this?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:23 | 2077553 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Those things are just a basket of derivatives; swaps and shit like that. Here's the prospectus for FAZ.

I can't explain it to you but I know a guy that can (as the saying goes) meaning no one really knows how those ETFs work. Even Blackstone was like...WTF is this shit? we don't even know <paraphrased>

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:09 | 2077536 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Need to superimpose joblessness and citizens on the public dole on this chart to give an accurate picture of what is really going on..

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:08 | 2077537 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

its all good, buy stocks and love your banker.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:13 | 2077550 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Time to break out the Birinyi ruler two months the S&P 500 should register 1,450 given the move from last December.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:30 | 2077558 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Sweet baby Jesus!  Anyone see the delta on the vol in 10Y on this mornings earnings and data dump?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:43 | 2077651 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Is it TBT time?  Anybody moving in?

I am gun shy of that trade. My worst trades recently hinged on the Bernank intervening in the markets and there is chatter about more intervention at the upcoming meeting.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:56 | 2077703 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Stax IMHO the bond market has farted in the face of this stock market rise the whole time. If we correct that money is going to flood into treasuries because they are "quality and liquid". I think at the end of this year when Obama gets re-elected and has to raise the debt ceiling AGAIN and repeals the automatic spending cuts thats when it gets interesting.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:01 | 2077960 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Greece, it gets interesting before the election but $1.2 trillion buys a lot of cover.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:16 | 2078020 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

When the bond market farts in the face of the stock market is this generally an equity positive or negative event?  I am baffled.  If we were talking humans, I would say this would be negative for equities and neutral for bonds.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 15:06 | 2078769 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It is confusing as hell. All I gather from it is that bond's are calling bullshit. Eventually....after I cover my shorts for an enormous loss....equities should fall

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:22 | 2077574 new game
new game's picture

starting to wonder what we can believe...

markets are clueless unless data irrelevent.

exactually why i'm phys pm and cash and have zero to do with the rest...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:21 | 2077576 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Fed "more support for the economy". That means support the stock market with QE3.

I still say that from a technical standpoint if we close higher today, by any amount, it's a high likelyhood we'll be heading for the July highs.  There's no stopping crazy until said crazy hits the wall and self implodes.  When that happens is anyones guess.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2077590 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

And despite all the talk about QE3 not being able raise stock prices if the institutions are the only players and they agree to only buy stocks with free money then what's so hard to believe about it? Not saying that it will happen but it's possible. They have complete control at the moment. Probably when things get so bad that the greediest one decides to save their own sorry ass and bails regardless the finger pointing starts and it's a mass exodus and a year long rally will be negated in 3 days. LOL.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:29 | 2077592 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

The economic #'s could be opposite...The stock market could go the opposite direction...The news surrounding the economic #'s and the direction of the stock market could be opposite and who would be the wiser?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:35 | 2077625 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The Fed.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:26 | 2077595 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture
Seriously, jobless claims fell more than expected BUT IT WAS THE WORST DECLINE IN 2nd WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS SINCE 2009! Look at the charts. Initial Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected*, Housing Starts Fall -4.1%

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:38 | 2077638 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I"m not a global warming guy, and don't care about it because oil consumption decline would address anything of the sort happening, but I will say that this has been an absurdly mild winter nationwide.

A lot of outdoor jobs are suspended for bad weather each January.  Those workers file for unemployment when it happens.  

It may not be happening this year and the seasonal adjustment coefficients expect bad weather, where this year there has been none.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:58 | 2077682 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Just wait for the growing season.  Water is going to be a big problem for many.  We have already been diverting flows to fill cisterns in preparation.

Add that to predictions of a recovery with $100+ oil, I think not.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:08 | 2077986 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Right.  People need to look at employment and not get caught up in the noise.  The noise is propaganda.  Emplyment is up less than 1% per year since 1999, far lagging behind population growth. 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:29 | 2077601 adr
adr's picture

If BAC can say they beat estimates last quarter I should be able to tell the IRS I made nothing last year. All should be fair in fudge.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 15:01 | 2078740 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Dude - just deduct your living expenses from your income and call it "the being alive deduction" LOL!

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:32 | 2077618 yogibear
yogibear's picture

This is a green light for Obama to spend like crazy until the election in November. Get the deficit up to 17 trillion by the year end. Add another 2 trillion next year. 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:45 | 2077657 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

The FED is keeping up the index through the sell in May and go away. They would rather keep Obama in office than risk a Ron Paul break out. They can't do anything for the real ecomony, but they can pump the market to 13500 on no volume by election. Just need to keep the Euro hopes afloat til November. Once the election is over all hell can break loose now that NDAA is in place....

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:42 | 2077647 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

So, all this good news and barely .3% rally???

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:13 | 2077758 DOT
DOT's picture

Did I read that the Fed was concerned about disinformation ?  Since when ?!!

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 11:16 | 2077770 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Here's the really amusing part (I went to the BLS site).

Seasonally adjusted one year ago: 415K  today 352K

Not seasonally adjusted one year ago: 549K today 521K


Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:09 | 2077993 economics1996
economics1996's picture

hope and change.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:40 | 2078411 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

When in doubt, go all in on the lie that is our economic system.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 14:58 | 2078724 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

I posted this elsewhere - going to re-post. This is how I feel about the whole effing thing - which is why I'm not getting more involved in this market.

Back in 2009 - I felt that the Dow at 7000 and the S&P 500 at 800 were buys. However I felt that the pop would be short-term, and not long-term, because the fundamentals didn't justify it.

Now the bearish case makes sense - it really looks like the market is running on hopium. With all the negative news coming out of Europe - I mean even the World Bank told us that things aren't looking good for the global economy. Let's ignore the fact that housing is in the toilet, unemployment (the real number) is through the roof, more Americans are on food stamps than ever before and more Americans are below the poverty line than ever before. Even the "job growth" you see today is not high quality job growth - a lot of seasonals and temp stuff. Something like 50% of homeowners are underwater. Real incomes continue to fall or plateau. Oil is at $100 a barrel - we've always been told that hurts the average consumer's disposable income. The labour force participation rate is way down because people are disheartened. 

Can earnings growth continue at this rate? No! Yet a lot seem to be buying the BS. I just don't get it.

I don't get the same feelings about this year that I got about say 2002. Then I really felt that better days were about to come. Now I don't feel the same as I did.

I don't even get the same feelings about this year that I got in 2006 when the DJIA was last at this level.

Unless, I have to take into account the new way of doing things - i.e. when everything seems bad, the Fed will print and rescue the day. It's the Bernanke put as opposed to the Greenspan put. Bernanke - the US economy's version of the "helicopter parent".

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