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Economic Miss Trifecta Not Bad Enough For "THE NEW QE" Rumors
Continuing today's disappointing data releases, we now get the Philly Fed, Existing home sales (aka the NAR's monthly advertising update), and Eurozone confidence. Sure enough, all missed, since we are now in NEW QE prep mode.
- Philly Fed: 8.5, missed expectations of 12.0, and lower than the previous print of 12.5 (source)
- New Orders down from 3.3, to 2.7
- Prices Paid spike from 18.7 to 22.5,
- but, just to add confusion to injury following the much weaker claims data, the Employment index rose from 6.8 to 17.9
- Existing home sales, reported by the inherently conflicted NAR, missed, dropping from 4.61MM to 4.48MM, a data set which we caution readers is about 0.0% accurate and valid.
- Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 4.3 percent to 2.43 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.4-month
- The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $156,600 in February, up 0.3 percent from February 2011.
- All-cash sales rose to 33 percent of transactions in February from 31 percent in January; they were 33 percent in February 2011
- Single-family home sales declined 1.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in February from 4.10 million in January
- Finally, Eurozone consumer confidence also missed sliding to -19.8, on expectation of an improvement to -19.0 from -19.1
Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring.
One chart watched by many is the New Orders less Inventory, which shows that once again, the stockpiling is way ahead of actual demand.
We end by bringing the endless humor from that joke and "asymmetric reality initiative "master, the NAR's Larry Yun:
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said underlying factors are much better compared to one year ago. “The market is trending up unevenly, with record high consumer buying power and sustained job gains giving buyers the confidence they need to get into the market,” he said. “Although relatively unusual, there will be rising demand for both rental space and homeownership this year. The great suppression in household formation during the past four years was unsustainable, and a pent-up demand could burst forth from the improving economy.”
“Falling visible and shadow inventory, combined with a dearth of new-home and apartment construction during the past three years, assure that rents will continue to rise, with likely home price increases in 2012,” Yun said.
“Many buyers are staying in the market after experiencing a contract failure and making an offer on another property, showing their determination to take advantage of the favorable conditions, but the cancellations are contributing to an uneven sales pattern,” Yun said.
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When it rains it... fuck it, we pretend it's sunny.
But...But Mr Yun says there has never been a better time to buy a home.
Things are looking better according to Jim Cramer because the Panera Bread and Chipolte's are packed at his local stores in Short Hills NJ
BOOYAHH!!!
I think we need to take a look at Yun's track record.
"Miss Trifecta"? Is she hot? Didn't know they had a pageant for this.
Europe closed fugly and US followed dowm to even as some folks cashed in on the earlier PPT ramp but it looks like the PPT has only stopped to lube the pump.
FTMFW:
Lawrence Yun: "There's never been a better time to buy a home, any time since 2000"
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-12/why-you-should-drink-at-...
Yes, the fractional banking system has sent leverage to 20+to l but velocity is near zero. It has to be done that way or we will enter the dark ages. Get over it. Big picture...the worldwide labor glut and the internet has caused wages (Foxconn) to drop to $1.25/hour, 30 to 40 times that of Union workers in the West. Over time, wages and the standard of living in the West will equalize. There has been and will continue to be great loss so now we will go thru the 5 stages w the 1st stage being rationalization, anger is coming rapidly.
What are you talking about? is it ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuebler-Ross_model
Slightly OT but maybe not...
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/04/18/eyeless-shrimp-and-mutant-fish-raise-concerns-over-bp-spill-effects/?intcmp=features#ixzz1sUTzOIof
THANK YOU BP!!!
Should be a huge payout.
How many misses is that on headline economic data over the past few weeks? I know it's quite a few, but I stopped counting.
All of them missed, but that's better than expected.
Better than worse expected, but not enough to pop the top on the 'New QE' can.
Crack addicts lining up outside the crack house on "free crack day" looking for the hit that will straighten out their lives
Give it a few minutes and Cramer will have a way of saying QE 3 or 4 a couple of hundred times.
Buy the miss!
That's what got those secret service agents in trouble.
Tranny loving goons.
Works better if you replace the "mi" with "pu"...............................
Tell the nice people why? Cue the trailer voice guy: 'This summer... '' BoEasing + QE3 + LTRO3 + Yentervention + Olympic distraction + Syriapocalypse = Dow 17,000
Mr Yun, a word in your ear please.
You're a f**k1ng liar.
I smell a RALLY!!!!!!!1!!
"Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring."
This was a Goldilocks miss. Not so cold that it spikes the markets with the hope of more fiat crack, not so hot that it spikes the market with the hope of a "natural" recovery.
Chaos reigns.
Everything is coming together nicely giving Ben the needed cover to print.
So we'll rush the PPT in and send the markets higher and thats the cover needed for 'QE' here with the DOW and S&P near all time highs?
"with record high consumer buying power"
We all know what Orifice he pulled that out of.
You need to read this line like a Philly lawyer would. He said "with record HIGH CONSUMER buying power." Yes, the HIGH END CONSUMERS are doing better than ever. Please visit Summit NJ or Alpine NJ as a perfect example of the wealth gap that is decimating this country from the inside out... the only question is, do those people living there think that they will be able to stop the waves of people?
It's gotta be the weather.
Ho, hummmmm..... another day in paradise.
Economic Miss Trifecta Not Bad Enough For "THE NEW QE" Rumors - Yet
Turn on those printers Ben and save us! Please we need our fiat fix.
If the entire Boston region including all suburbs and divisions FACTUALLY sold only 177 single family units during the entire 1Q12, how does the NAR calculate their numbers?
they probably added in the off market forclosures as a sell.....or maybe they are back to double counting again..anyway.."its a greeat time to buy"....
Recovery doing great! This is a fucking disgrace and Bernake needs to simply let this thing reach its own natural level so we can reach a bottom.
Employment index is up because of the Obamacare broken window effect. Both in federally funded hospital construction and in mandated IT changes.
Party like it is Y2K.
What time does the 'invisible hand of the market' ram-rod equities higher anyway?
I'm guessing roundabout 11:30 EST. The air brakes have already been applied and you can see the 'pops' as they try to catch a slot and relentless bid the shit out of it higher.
I'm taking over / under side bets.
Wait!
Wall Street is diverging from their usual M.O. Usually the Markets SOAR on news that thousands more workers have been fired. They LOVE dancing on the grave of Labor.
SPX now a full 2 handles down and getting shoved higher...
Man, you just can't make this shit up.
no question their is an invisible hand on this market.
Spot on sir - you can almost "see" the PPT or whoever the hell it is coming in with massive bids to push what we used to know as "the market" up and burn any shorts. It's just sickening to watch them manipiulate everything to keep the sheeple from panicking.
This free market died long ago. It is now a system controlled by the pd's with fed directive imo.
'Massive bids to keep the sheeple from panicking'...hell if thats all theyve got left then slaughter time is very near.
New QE? Great expectations lead to huge disappointments. Time to put on my shorts.
'Many buyers are staying in the market after experiencing a contract failure'
i'm so happy for them!
Tyler,
Thanks for taking on the Snorgtee T shirt ads.
I much prefer to look at an atrtractive young woman modeling a T shirt, than Glenn Beck shilling expensive PM, which was there last year.
Much appreciated..!!!
"Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring."
LOL
Exactly.
Like an errant addict, they must be "in trouble" to get attention such as money or their next fix.
With all the bad news today AND the election coming up, The Fed will ease!!!!!
Bernanke as Kilgore: I love the smell of QE in the morning. It smells like VICTORY!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/04/19/existing-home-sales-d...
What 'bad news' today? Theyre refusing to let any bad news appear at all.
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Options expiration tomorrow. Great day for the fed to float a rumor and crush the shorts for the 50th time. this manipulation needs to stop.
Crushing the shorts has been what the last 2 years was all about. The Fed and other PTB have really changed the nature of the market by neutering anyone with the inclination to short. The balance has been squewed and that totally undermines the entire purpose of the market, price discovery. Frankenstein is up off his slab and wandering around the world.
So now they have no more shorts to fuel the desired moves upward 'to keep the sheeple fooled' so now it all has to come from PPT intervention. This cant last very long at all. And even if it somehow could go on, what the hell is the point?
Absolutely right. Just wait until this pig starts selling off in earnest and there's no floor. I think a 20% "correction" will be wishful thinking.
You know what I think their real problem is with a 'sell off'? They cant do it, theres no one to sell to, not until FAR lower, so they cant let markets drop even a little bit or else theyve got a shitalanche on their hands....I think its out of their control at this point.
I get that feeling, too.
THERE....WILL....BE....NO....QE....WITH.....S&P.....@.....OR......ABOVE......1300....CAPSICI!?!?!
And, its apparent that they wont even let SP drop more than 10 points or so without rushing in and rescuing it anyway.
ZH has taught me well.
None of this matters. Miss, hit; it is all the same. The markets will go up.
BTFD
Well, that is until they don't.
Market action sure seems to be screaming QE Tade On.
DOW 13,070....meh, Im not so impressed...seems like theyre just trying to keep the wheels on.
http://finviz.com/ look how the entire market trades as if it were one stock. Whther it's the Dow, S&P or Nasdaq. Sickening manipulation.
A statistical impossibility is a probability that is so low as to not be worthy of mentioning. Sometimes it is quoted as 1X10^-50[1] although the cutoff is inherently arbitrary. Although not truly impossible the probability is low enough so as to not bear mention in a rational, reasonable argument.
http://www.conservapedia.com/Statistical_impossibility
Hmmmmm, CNBS says this on their front page "U.S. home re-sales fell in March but the supply of properties on the market tightened and prices inched higher, while the Philly Fed Index fell and the Index of Leading Indicators rose."
Above we see this "...Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 4.3 percent to 2.43 million existing homes available for sale..."
NAR numbers must be so bad that CNBS just makes up their own now?
Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring.
Something has sent the market up in parabolic mode.
30 points is parabolic now?
The DOW jumped about 100 points in less than 20 minutes. That's pretty parabolic.
We are witnessing the largest market manipulation in history and no one cares. 7 Trillion Dollars of assets (Debt) bought by magical dollars and Euros created out of thin air by the fed and EU alone. And another 20 trillion bought by Gov debt.
HOW DOES THIS END?
Badly.
It ends one morning with all the bull'tards shrieking about 'Hey what happened Ben promised me free gains, I need to be 'bailed out!' yadda yadda.
"The great suppression in household formation during the past four years was unsustainable..."
How many homeless people are out there and are we really counting on the homeless to jumpstart the economy? Sounds like QE3 or a govt stimulas called "construction for cardboard" is coming.
These people cannot face the facts that the original housing bubble put people in housing that they couldn't afford and if they couldn't afford housing during the boom, they certainly can't afford housing in a jobless economy.
They keep insisting the top of the massive real estate bubble is the 'normal' which will be regained one day soon. Its utter insanity.
and now green shoots...
The trend is up no matther what data shows.ZH,however has bearish bias since the bullmkt strated,no matter
what data it suck but guess what,market goes UP:)
well then go pile all your money in stocks then no one is stopping you if youre convinced 'markets' only go up now. I don't believe it at all myself, it's all yours, bud.
I love all the talk of QE3, it's been talked about since last June. I will say it for the tenth time we aint getting it anytime soon, especially with SP near 1400.
Think people, can they really launch here, we need another "crisis" before that happens, and SP to be near 1100.
With everyone, and i mean everyone thinkig QE is coming it aint, and as well this one will buy us even less time.
When SP hits 1200 to 1100, then we can talk QE
I've been here the whole time saying QE is not coming, not in 'overt' form anyway of an announcement from Bernank one morning that $4 trillion is being gifted to stocks. Any 'QE' that does come will just be under the table and wont be for the retail sucker. And personally I believe 'the level' for any QE would be more like SP 900. But I dont think theyll even let it drop 30 points without emergency PPT rescue measures, so its all just irrelevant.
All this talk of PPT and FED propping up market, all fantasy my friend
Just a good story. I dont buy it for a second.
OH right so 'reality' to you is in this economy the 'retail investor' is who is really in there 'buying the dip' hand over fist to prop the markets higher? NONE of the data supports your theory, my friend! Record high week after week market cashout withdrawals and empty zero volume is the actual reality, my delusional friend.
It's all the PD's and HFT's propping it up.
Plus a lot of Hedge Funds. All this talk of PPT this is just as annoying as we are in a full blown recovery
Well WTF do you think the 'PD's and HFT's' are if not the 'PPT and the FED' itself? OMFG
Hey I never attaked you, you dont have to be rude and swear at me. That's the problem with this site, best on web for content, but when someone dares to have a different view they get attcked. That is a sign of weakness my freind.
So when market craters 20% in 2010 and 2011, and most likely this time too, where will all the PPT calls be.
This is a very BIG GAME my friend, and A LOT of money involved. To claim it's that easy to maniplute is just wrong.
I have said this ten times or more too
YA SHORT TERM YOU MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH MARKET AROUND, BUT IN LONG TERM MARKET WILL ALWAYS WIN AND CRUSH THE FED
Let me ask you this. If the Fed thought that manipulating the market would at least give some support to the wealth effect, and keep high end consumers spending why wouldn't they? Do you seriously believe that Bernanke is more concerned with true price discovery and getting us deleveraged and back to reality ASAP?