Economic Miss Trifecta Not Bad Enough For "THE NEW QE" Rumors
Continuing today's disappointing data releases, we now get the Philly Fed, Existing home sales (aka the NAR's monthly advertising update), and Eurozone confidence. Sure enough, all missed, since we are now in NEW QE prep mode.
- Philly Fed: 8.5, missed expectations of 12.0, and lower than the previous print of 12.5 (source)
- New Orders down from 3.3, to 2.7
- Prices Paid spike from 18.7 to 22.5,
- but, just to add confusion to injury following the much weaker claims data, the Employment index rose from 6.8 to 17.9
- Existing home sales, reported by the inherently conflicted NAR, missed, dropping from 4.61MM to 4.48MM, a data set which we caution readers is about 0.0% accurate and valid.
- Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 4.3 percent to 2.43 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.4-month
- The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $156,600 in February, up 0.3 percent from February 2011.
- All-cash sales rose to 33 percent of transactions in February from 31 percent in January; they were 33 percent in February 2011
- Single-family home sales declined 1.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in February from 4.10 million in January
- Finally, Eurozone consumer confidence also missed sliding to -19.8, on expectation of an improvement to -19.0 from -19.1
Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring.
We end by bringing the endless humor from that joke and "asymmetric reality initiative "master, the NAR's Larry Yun:
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said underlying factors are much better compared to one year ago. “The market is trending up unevenly, with record high consumer buying power and sustained job gains giving buyers the confidence they need to get into the market,” he said. “Although relatively unusual, there will be rising demand for both rental space and homeownership this year. The great suppression in household formation during the past four years was unsustainable, and a pent-up demand could burst forth from the improving economy.”
“Falling visible and shadow inventory, combined with a dearth of new-home and apartment construction during the past three years, assure that rents will continue to rise, with likely home price increases in 2012,” Yun said.
“Many buyers are staying in the market after experiencing a contract failure and making an offer on another property, showing their determination to take advantage of the favorable conditions, but the cancellations are contributing to an uneven sales pattern,” Yun said.