Economic Miss Trifecta Not Bad Enough For "THE NEW QE" Rumors

Tyler Durden's picture


Continuing today's disappointing data releases, we now get the Philly Fed, Existing home sales (aka the NAR's monthly advertising update), and Eurozone confidence. Sure enough, all missed, since we are now in NEW QE prep mode.

  • Philly Fed: 8.5, missed expectations of 12.0, and lower than the previous print of 12.5 (source)
    • New Orders down from 3.3, to 2.7
    • Prices Paid spike from 18.7 to 22.5,
    • but, just to add confusion to injury following the much weaker claims data, the Employment index rose from 6.8 to 17.9
  • Existing home sales, reported by the inherently conflicted NAR, missed, dropping from 4.61MM to 4.48MM, a data set which we caution readers is about 0.0% accurate and valid.
    • Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 4.3 percent to 2.43 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.4-month
    • The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $156,600 in February, up 0.3 percent from February 2011.
    • All-cash sales rose to 33 percent of transactions in February from 31 percent in January; they were 33 percent in February 2011
    • Single-family home sales declined 1.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in February from 4.10 million in January
  • Finally, Eurozone consumer confidence also missed sliding to -19.8, on expectation of an improvement to -19.0 from -19.1

Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring.

One chart watched by many is the New Orders less Inventory, which shows that once again, the stockpiling is way ahead of actual demand.

We end by bringing the endless humor from that joke and "asymmetric reality initiative "master, the NAR's Larry Yun:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said underlying factors are much better compared to one year ago. “The market is trending up unevenly, with record high consumer buying power and sustained job gains giving buyers the confidence they need to get into the market,” he said. “Although relatively unusual, there will be rising demand for both rental space and homeownership this year. The great suppression in household formation during the past four years was unsustainable, and a pent-up demand could burst forth from the improving economy.”


“Falling visible and shadow inventory, combined with a dearth of new-home and apartment construction during the past three years, assure that rents will continue to rise, with likely home price increases in 2012,” Yun said.


“Many buyers are staying in the market after experiencing a contract failure and making an offer on another property, showing their determination to take advantage of the favorable conditions, but the cancellations are contributing to an uneven sales pattern,” Yun said.

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Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:13 | 2358124 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

When it rains it... fuck it, we pretend it's sunny.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2358164 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

But...But Mr Yun says there has never been a better time to buy a home.

Things are looking better according to Jim Cramer because the Panera Bread and Chipolte's are packed at his local stores in Short Hills NJ 


Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:41 | 2358242 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I think we need to take a look at Yun's track record.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:02 | 2358329 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

"Miss Trifecta"? Is she hot? Didn't know they had a pageant for this.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:58 | 2358535 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Europe closed fugly and US followed dowm to even as some folks cashed in on the earlier PPT ramp but it looks like the PPT has only stopped to lube the pump.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:22 | 2358395 kalasend
kalasend's picture


Lawrence Yun: "There's never been a better time to buy a home, any time since 2000"

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:31 | 2358189 tempo
tempo's picture

Yes, the fractional banking system has sent leverage to 20+to l but velocity is near zero. It has to be done that way or we will enter the dark ages. Get over it. Big picture...the worldwide labor glut and the internet has caused wages (Foxconn) to drop to $1.25/hour, 30 to 40 times that of Union workers in the West. Over time, wages and the standard of living in the West will equalize. There has been and will continue to be great loss so now we will go thru the 5 stages w the 1st stage being rationalization, anger is coming rapidly.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:40 | 2358224 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

What are you talking about? is it ...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:14 | 2358126 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Should be a huge payout.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:15 | 2358127 navy62802
navy62802's picture

How many misses is that on headline economic data over the past few weeks? I know it's quite a few, but I stopped counting.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:43 | 2358247 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

All of them missed, but that's better than expected.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:52 | 2358280 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Better than worse expected, but not enough to pop the top on the 'New QE' can. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:05 | 2358333 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Crack addicts lining up outside the crack house on "free crack day" looking for the hit that will straighten out their lives

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:14 | 2358129 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Give it a few minutes and Cramer will have a way of saying QE 3 or 4 a couple of hundred times.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:16 | 2358132 PrintingPress
PrintingPress's picture

Buy the miss!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:20 | 2358157 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

That's what got those secret service agents in trouble.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:26 | 2358173 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Tranny loving goons.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:29 | 2358179 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Works better if you replace the "mi" with "pu"...............................

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2358165 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Tell the nice people why? Cue the trailer voice guy: 'This summer... '' BoEasing + QE3 + LTRO3 + Yentervention + Olympic distraction + Syriapocalypse = Dow 17,000

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:15 | 2358134 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Mr Yun, a word in your ear please.


You're a f**k1ng liar.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:17 | 2358135 Mariez
Mariez's picture

I smell a RALLY!!!!!!!1!!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:18 | 2358136 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring."

This was a Goldilocks miss. Not so cold that it spikes the markets with the hope of more fiat crack, not so hot that it spikes the market with the hope of a "natural" recovery.

Chaos reigns.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:23 | 2358160 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Everything is coming together nicely giving Ben the needed cover to print.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:12 | 2358356 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So we'll rush the PPT in and send the markets higher and thats the cover needed for 'QE' here with the DOW and S&P near all time highs?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:17 | 2358137 Osmium
Osmium's picture

"with record high consumer buying power"

We all know what Orifice he pulled that out of.


Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:23 | 2358167 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

You need to read this line like a Philly lawyer would. He said "with record HIGH CONSUMER buying power." Yes, the HIGH END CONSUMERS are doing better than ever. Please visit Summit NJ or Alpine NJ as a perfect example of the wealth gap that is decimating this country from the inside out... the only question is, do those people living there think that they will be able to stop the waves of people?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:18 | 2358139 JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

It's gotta be the weather.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:18 | 2358141 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Ho, hummmmm..... another day in paradise.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:19 | 2358146 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Economic Miss Trifecta Not Bad Enough For "THE NEW QE" Rumors - Yet

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:19 | 2358147 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Turn on those printers Ben and save us! Please we need our fiat fix.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:20 | 2358149 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

If the entire Boston region including all suburbs and divisions FACTUALLY sold only 177 single family units during the entire 1Q12, how does the NAR calculate their numbers?


Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:01 | 2358325 youngman
youngman's picture

they probably added in the off market forclosures as a sell.....or maybe they are back to double counting again..anyway.."its a greeat time to buy"....

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:19 | 2358153 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Recovery doing great!  This is a fucking disgrace and Bernake needs to simply let this thing reach its own natural level so we can reach a bottom.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:21 | 2358154 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Employment index is up because of the Obamacare broken window effect.  Both in federally funded hospital construction and in mandated IT changes. 

Party like it is Y2K.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:21 | 2358155 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

What time does the 'invisible hand of the market' ram-rod equities higher anyway?

I'm guessing roundabout 11:30 EST.  The air brakes have already been applied and you can see the 'pops' as they try to catch a slot and relentless bid the shit out of it higher.

I'm taking over / under side bets.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:21 | 2358156 Monkeyfister
Monkeyfister's picture



Wall Street is diverging from their usual M.O. Usually the Markets SOAR on news that thousands more workers have been fired. They LOVE dancing on the grave of Labor.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:22 | 2358163 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

SPX now a full 2 handles down and getting shoved higher...

Man, you just can't make this shit up.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:25 | 2358171 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

no question their is an invisible hand on this market.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:33 | 2358194 Howdan
Howdan's picture

Spot on sir - you can almost "see" the PPT or whoever the hell it is coming in with massive bids to push what we used to know as "the market" up and burn any shorts. It's just sickening to watch them manipiulate everything to keep the sheeple from panicking. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:38 | 2358216 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

This free market died long ago. It is now a system controlled by the pd's with fed directive imo.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:53 | 2358288 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Massive bids to keep the sheeple from panicking'...hell if thats all theyve got left then slaughter time is very near.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:29 | 2358180 Cursive
Cursive's picture

New QE? Great expectations lead to huge disappointments. Time to put on my shorts.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:32 | 2358186 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

'Many buyers are staying in the market after experiencing a contract failure'

i'm so happy for them!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:33 | 2358192 bobola
bobola's picture


Thanks for taking on the Snorgtee T shirt ads.

I much prefer to look at an atrtractive young woman modeling a T shirt, than Glenn Beck shilling expensive PM, which was there last year.

Much appreciated..!!!


Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:32 | 2358196 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring."



Like an errant addict, they must be "in trouble" to get attention such as money or their next fix.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:35 | 2358209 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

With all the bad news today AND the election coming up, The Fed will ease!!!!!

Bernanke as Kilgore: I love the smell of QE in the morning. It smells like VICTORY!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:54 | 2358295 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What 'bad news' today? Theyre refusing to let any bad news appear at all.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:37 | 2358213 Teamtc321
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