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Economic Miss Trifecta Not Bad Enough For "THE NEW QE" Rumors

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Continuing today's disappointing data releases, we now get the Philly Fed, Existing home sales (aka the NAR's monthly advertising update), and Eurozone confidence. Sure enough, all missed, since we are now in NEW QE prep mode.

  • Philly Fed: 8.5, missed expectations of 12.0, and lower than the previous print of 12.5 (source)
    • New Orders down from 3.3, to 2.7
    • Prices Paid spike from 18.7 to 22.5,
    • but, just to add confusion to injury following the much weaker claims data, the Employment index rose from 6.8 to 17.9
  • Existing home sales, reported by the inherently conflicted NAR, missed, dropping from 4.61MM to 4.48MM, a data set which we caution readers is about 0.0% accurate and valid.
    • Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 4.3 percent to 2.43 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.4-month
    • The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $156,600 in February, up 0.3 percent from February 2011.
    • All-cash sales rose to 33 percent of transactions in February from 31 percent in January; they were 33 percent in February 2011
    • Single-family home sales declined 1.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in February from 4.10 million in January
  • Finally, Eurozone consumer confidence also missed sliding to -19.8, on expectation of an improvement to -19.0 from -19.1

Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring.

One chart watched by many is the New Orders less Inventory, which shows that once again, the stockpiling is way ahead of actual demand.

We end by bringing the endless humor from that joke and "asymmetric reality initiative "master, the NAR's Larry Yun:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said underlying factors are much better compared to one year ago. “The market is trending up unevenly, with record high consumer buying power and sustained job gains giving buyers the confidence they need to get into the market,” he said. “Although relatively unusual, there will be rising demand for both rental space and homeownership this year. The great suppression in household formation during the past four years was unsustainable, and a pent-up demand could burst forth from the improving economy.”

 

“Falling visible and shadow inventory, combined with a dearth of new-home and apartment construction during the past three years, assure that rents will continue to rise, with likely home price increases in 2012,” Yun said.

 

“Many buyers are staying in the market after experiencing a contract failure and making an offer on another property, showing their determination to take advantage of the favorable conditions, but the cancellations are contributing to an uneven sales pattern,” Yun said.

 

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Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:13 | 2358124 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

When it rains it... fuck it, we pretend it's sunny.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2358164 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

But...But Mr Yun says there has never been a better time to buy a home.

Things are looking better according to Jim Cramer because the Panera Bread and Chipolte's are packed at his local stores in Short Hills NJ 

BOOYAHH!!!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:41 | 2358242 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I think we need to take a look at Yun's track record.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:02 | 2358329 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

"Miss Trifecta"? Is she hot? Didn't know they had a pageant for this.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:58 | 2358535 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Europe closed fugly and US followed dowm to even as some folks cashed in on the earlier PPT ramp but it looks like the PPT has only stopped to lube the pump.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:22 | 2358395 kalasend
kalasend's picture

FTMFW:

Lawrence Yun: "There's never been a better time to buy a home, any time since 2000"

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:31 | 2358189 tempo
tempo's picture

Yes, the fractional banking system has sent leverage to 20+to l but velocity is near zero. It has to be done that way or we will enter the dark ages. Get over it. Big picture...the worldwide labor glut and the internet has caused wages (Foxconn) to drop to $1.25/hour, 30 to 40 times that of Union workers in the West. Over time, wages and the standard of living in the West will equalize. There has been and will continue to be great loss so now we will go thru the 5 stages w the 1st stage being rationalization, anger is coming rapidly.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:40 | 2358224 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

What are you talking about? is it ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuebler-Ross_model

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:14 | 2358126 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Should be a huge payout.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:15 | 2358127 navy62802
navy62802's picture

How many misses is that on headline economic data over the past few weeks? I know it's quite a few, but I stopped counting.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:43 | 2358247 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

All of them missed, but that's better than expected.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:52 | 2358280 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Better than worse expected, but not enough to pop the top on the 'New QE' can. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:05 | 2358333 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Crack addicts lining up outside the crack house on "free crack day" looking for the hit that will straighten out their lives

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:14 | 2358129 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Give it a few minutes and Cramer will have a way of saying QE 3 or 4 a couple of hundred times.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:16 | 2358132 PrintingPress
PrintingPress's picture

Buy the miss!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:20 | 2358157 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

That's what got those secret service agents in trouble.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:26 | 2358173 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Tranny loving goons.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:29 | 2358179 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Works better if you replace the "mi" with "pu"...............................

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2358165 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Tell the nice people why? Cue the trailer voice guy: 'This summer... '' BoEasing + QE3 + LTRO3 + Yentervention + Olympic distraction + Syriapocalypse = Dow 17,000

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:15 | 2358134 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Mr Yun, a word in your ear please.

 

You're a f**k1ng liar.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:17 | 2358135 Mariez
Mariez's picture

I smell a RALLY!!!!!!!1!!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:18 | 2358136 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring."

This was a Goldilocks miss. Not so cold that it spikes the markets with the hope of more fiat crack, not so hot that it spikes the market with the hope of a "natural" recovery.

Chaos reigns.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:23 | 2358160 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Everything is coming together nicely giving Ben the needed cover to print.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:12 | 2358356 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So we'll rush the PPT in and send the markets higher and thats the cover needed for 'QE' here with the DOW and S&P near all time highs?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:17 | 2358137 Osmium
Osmium's picture

"with record high consumer buying power"

We all know what Orifice he pulled that out of.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:23 | 2358167 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

You need to read this line like a Philly lawyer would. He said "with record HIGH CONSUMER buying power." Yes, the HIGH END CONSUMERS are doing better than ever. Please visit Summit NJ or Alpine NJ as a perfect example of the wealth gap that is decimating this country from the inside out... the only question is, do those people living there think that they will be able to stop the waves of people?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:18 | 2358139 JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

It's gotta be the weather.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:18 | 2358141 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Ho, hummmmm..... another day in paradise.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:19 | 2358146 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Economic Miss Trifecta Not Bad Enough For "THE NEW QE" Rumors - Yet

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:19 | 2358147 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Turn on those printers Ben and save us! Please we need our fiat fix.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:20 | 2358149 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

If the entire Boston region including all suburbs and divisions FACTUALLY sold only 177 single family units during the entire 1Q12, how does the NAR calculate their numbers?

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:01 | 2358325 youngman
youngman's picture

they probably added in the off market forclosures as a sell.....or maybe they are back to double counting again..anyway.."its a greeat time to buy"....

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:19 | 2358153 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Recovery doing great!  This is a fucking disgrace and Bernake needs to simply let this thing reach its own natural level so we can reach a bottom.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:21 | 2358154 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Employment index is up because of the Obamacare broken window effect.  Both in federally funded hospital construction and in mandated IT changes. 

Party like it is Y2K.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:21 | 2358155 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

What time does the 'invisible hand of the market' ram-rod equities higher anyway?

I'm guessing roundabout 11:30 EST.  The air brakes have already been applied and you can see the 'pops' as they try to catch a slot and relentless bid the shit out of it higher.

I'm taking over / under side bets.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:21 | 2358156 Monkeyfister
Monkeyfister's picture

Wait!

 

Wall Street is diverging from their usual M.O. Usually the Markets SOAR on news that thousands more workers have been fired. They LOVE dancing on the grave of Labor.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:22 | 2358163 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

SPX now a full 2 handles down and getting shoved higher...

Man, you just can't make this shit up.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:25 | 2358171 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

no question their is an invisible hand on this market.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:33 | 2358194 Howdan
Howdan's picture

Spot on sir - you can almost "see" the PPT or whoever the hell it is coming in with massive bids to push what we used to know as "the market" up and burn any shorts. It's just sickening to watch them manipiulate everything to keep the sheeple from panicking. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:38 | 2358216 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

This free market died long ago. It is now a system controlled by the pd's with fed directive imo.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:53 | 2358288 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Massive bids to keep the sheeple from panicking'...hell if thats all theyve got left then slaughter time is very near.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:29 | 2358180 Cursive
Cursive's picture

New QE? Great expectations lead to huge disappointments. Time to put on my shorts.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:32 | 2358186 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

'Many buyers are staying in the market after experiencing a contract failure'

i'm so happy for them!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:33 | 2358192 bobola
bobola's picture

Tyler,

Thanks for taking on the Snorgtee T shirt ads.

I much prefer to look at an atrtractive young woman modeling a T shirt, than Glenn Beck shilling expensive PM, which was there last year.

Much appreciated..!!!

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:32 | 2358196 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring."

LOL

Exactly.

Like an errant addict, they must be "in trouble" to get attention such as money or their next fix.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:35 | 2358209 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

With all the bad news today AND the election coming up, The Fed will ease!!!!!

Bernanke as Kilgore: I love the smell of QE in the morning. It smells like VICTORY!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/04/19/existing-home-sales-d...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:54 | 2358295 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What 'bad news' today? Theyre refusing to let any bad news appear at all.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:37 | 2358213 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Sen. Rand Paul Confronts Obama Crimes

An Exclusive interview, Alex Jones speaks with Sen. Rand Paul on NDAA, TSA undercover on Houston busses, Obama’s overall neglect of the Constitution, his possible impeachment and much moreThis is a must see video.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ryG-6Q8rMH0

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:39 | 2358227 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Options expiration tomorrow.  Great day for the fed to float a rumor and crush the shorts for the 50th time.  this manipulation needs to stop.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:54 | 2358297 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Crushing the shorts has been what the last 2 years was all about. The Fed and other PTB have really changed the nature of the market by neutering anyone with the inclination to short. The balance has been squewed and that totally undermines the entire purpose of the market, price discovery. Frankenstein is up off his slab and wandering around the world.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:59 | 2358313 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So now they have no more shorts to fuel the desired moves upward 'to keep the sheeple fooled' so now it all has to come from PPT intervention. This cant last very long at all. And even if it somehow could go on, what the hell is the point?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:11 | 2358354 Chump
Chump's picture

Absolutely right.  Just wait until this pig starts selling off in earnest and there's no floor.  I think a 20% "correction" will be wishful thinking.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:20 | 2358384 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You know what I think their real problem is with a 'sell off'? They cant do it, theres no one to sell to, not until FAR lower, so they cant let markets drop even a little bit or else theyve got a shitalanche on their hands....I think its out of their control at this point.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:33 | 2358439 Chump
Chump's picture

I get that feeling, too.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:40 | 2358228 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

THERE....WILL....BE....NO....QE....WITH.....S&P.....@.....OR......ABOVE......1300....CAPSICI!?!?!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:09 | 2358348 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And, its apparent that they wont even let SP drop more than 10 points or so without rushing in and rescuing it anyway. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:41 | 2358231 SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

ZH has taught me well.

None of this matters.  Miss, hit; it is all the same.  The markets will go up.

BTFD

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:56 | 2358296 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, that is until they don't. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:42 | 2358239 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Market action sure seems to be screaming QE Tade On.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:00 | 2358322 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

DOW 13,070....meh, Im not so impressed...seems like theyre just trying to keep the wheels on.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:43 | 2358246 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

http://finviz.com/ look how the entire market trades as if it were one stock. Whther it's the Dow, S&P or Nasdaq. Sickening manipulation.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:14 | 2358366 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

A statistical impossibility is a probability that is so low as to not be worthy of mentioning. Sometimes it is quoted as 1X10^-50[1] although the cutoff is inherently arbitrary. Although not truly impossible the probability is low enough so as to not bear mention in a rational, reasonable argument.

http://www.conservapedia.com/Statistical_impossibility

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:49 | 2358271 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Hmmmmm, CNBS says this on their front page "U.S. home re-sales fell in March but the supply of properties on the market tightened and prices inched higher, while the Philly Fed Index fell and the Index of Leading Indicators rose."

 

Above we see this "...Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 4.3 percent to 2.43 million existing homes available for sale..."

 

NAR numbers must be so bad that CNBS just makes up their own now? 

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:48 | 2358273 djsmps
djsmps's picture

Judging by the kneejerk reaction lower, the misses were not big enough to send the market soaring.

Something has sent the market up in parabolic mode.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:55 | 2358303 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

30 points is parabolic now?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:15 | 2358368 djsmps
djsmps's picture

The DOW jumped about 100 points in less than 20 minutes. That's pretty parabolic.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:53 | 2358289 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

We are witnessing the largest market manipulation in history and no one cares.  7 Trillion Dollars of assets (Debt) bought by magical dollars and Euros created out of thin air by the fed and EU alone.  And another 20 trillion bought by Gov debt.

HOW DOES THIS END?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:01 | 2358324 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Badly.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:04 | 2358334 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

It ends one morning with all the bull'tards shrieking about 'Hey what happened Ben promised me free gains, I need to be 'bailed out!' yadda yadda.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:54 | 2358294 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

"The great suppression in household formation during the past four years was unsustainable..."

How many homeless people are out there and are we really counting on the homeless to jumpstart the economy?  Sounds like QE3 or a govt stimulas called "construction for cardboard" is coming.

These people cannot face the facts that the original housing bubble put people in housing that they couldn't afford and if they couldn't afford housing during the boom, they certainly can't afford housing in a jobless economy.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:58 | 2358308 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They keep insisting the top of the massive real estate bubble is the 'normal' which will be regained one day soon. Its utter insanity.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:01 | 2358318 valley chick
valley chick's picture

and now green shoots...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:00 | 2358314 bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

The trend is up no matther what data shows.ZH,however has bearish bias since the bullmkt strated,no matter

what data it suck but guess what,market goes UP:)

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:03 | 2358327 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

well then go pile all your money in stocks then no one is stopping you if youre convinced 'markets' only go up now. I don't believe it at all myself, it's all yours, bud.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:04 | 2358330 Deep79
Deep79's picture

I love all the talk of QE3, it's been talked about since last June. I will say it for the tenth time we aint getting it anytime soon, especially with SP near 1400. 

Think people, can they really launch here, we need another "crisis" before that happens, and SP to be near 1100.

With everyone, and i mean everyone thinkig QE is coming it aint, and as well this one will buy us even less time.

When SP hits 1200 to 1100, then we can talk QE

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:07 | 2358340 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I've been here the whole time saying QE is not coming, not in 'overt' form anyway of an announcement from Bernank one morning that $4 trillion is being gifted to stocks. Any 'QE' that does come will just be under the table and wont be for the retail sucker. And personally I believe 'the level' for any QE would be more like SP 900. But I dont think theyll even let it drop 30 points without emergency PPT rescue measures, so its all just irrelevant.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:11 | 2358357 Deep79
Deep79's picture

All this talk of PPT and FED propping up market, all fantasy my friend

Just a good story. I dont buy it for a second. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:17 | 2358375 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OH right so 'reality' to you is in this economy the 'retail investor' is who is really in there 'buying the dip' hand over fist to prop the markets higher? NONE of the data supports your theory, my friend! Record high week after week market cashout withdrawals and empty zero volume is the actual reality, my delusional friend.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:22 | 2358404 Deep79
Deep79's picture

It's all the PD's and HFT's propping it up.

 

Plus a lot of Hedge Funds. All this talk of PPT this is just as annoying as we are in a full blown recovery

 

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:34 | 2358447 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well WTF do you think the 'PD's and HFT's' are if not the 'PPT and the FED' itself? OMFG

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:37 | 2358460 Deep79
Deep79's picture

Hey I never attaked you, you dont have to be rude and swear at me. That's the problem with this site, best on web for content, but when someone dares to have a different view they get attcked. That is a sign of weakness my freind.

So when market craters 20% in 2010 and 2011, and most likely this time too, where will all the PPT calls be.

This is a very BIG GAME my friend, and A LOT of money involved. To claim it's that easy to maniplute is just wrong.

I have said this ten times or more too

YA SHORT TERM YOU MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH MARKET AROUND, BUT IN LONG TERM MARKET WILL ALWAYS WIN AND CRUSH THE FED

 

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:36 | 2358455 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Let me ask you this. If the Fed thought that manipulating the market would at least give some support to the wealth effect, and keep high end consumers spending why wouldn't they? Do you seriously believe that Bernanke is more concerned with true price discovery and getting us deleveraged and back to reality ASAP?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!