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Economic Outlook Drops To Lowest Of The Year As Inflation Expectations Surge

Tyler Durden's picture




 

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence came modestly higher than expected and limped higher off the lowest levels of the year. However, aside from this apparently positive event (accoding to some media pundits), there are two worrying things shifting rapidly. Consumer outlook for the economy (as opposed to current conditions) dropped to their lowest of the year with the largest 3-month drop in 11 months (so much for hope?); and inflation expectations soared by the most in 17 months.

Consumer's outlook for the economy is plunging...

 

while their expectations of inflation are soaring...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:14 | 2713967 AlphaDawg
AlphaDawg's picture

Jive Talkin. The average Bufty McGrufty/ Granny Gruff anit too concerned about the economy or inflation.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:15 | 2713988 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Kill the politicians and central bankers.  WTF else is there to say?

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:18 | 2714002 AlphaDawg
AlphaDawg's picture

Ur livin in a fantasy mate,

 

Go for a walk and cool off.

 

Either sit back and get screwed or leave, your choice

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:22 | 2714014 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

I see a FEMA camp for you in the near future....

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:26 | 2714030 AlphaDawg
AlphaDawg's picture

yeah mate, you wish.

I aint goin to no FEMA camp, I am out of the states now, all you pussys can sit tight waiting for the FEMA boys to come and put you onto a train to the camp.

Haha......look at yourself! Have a good weekend

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:33 | 2714050 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

...you like Ecuador's embassy in London. Watch out for the drone. You can run, but you can not hide.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 11:08 | 2714160 AlphaDawg
AlphaDawg's picture

Yeah man, but id rather get droned than FEMA'd

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 13:05 | 2714570 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Everyone thinks because the bankers have the toys its game over.  The fucking Iraqis held off the US military 5 years with AK-47's, roadside bombs, and 30-06 sniping at 200-300 yards.

You going to tell be 200 million armed red necks could not overthrow the government?

Get fucking real dude.

When the fiat dies the bankers army goes with it.

 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:11 | 2714788 madcows
madcows's picture

Er, do you mean Afganis?

They'll never go away.  They'll just assume control of the next regime.  Look at Egypt.  Look at Afganistan.  Look at Iraq.  You can fight back all you want, but the crooked and well armed will always assume control.  It's only a matter of time.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:23 | 2714016 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Why not screw someone (the lay type) before you leave. At least leave  with a smile!

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:36 | 2714059 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

Contrary to these numbers, the investment continues to rise and the debt reduction continues to drop. Most likely we see a weak consumption for a while more. But investment and exports continue to rise while private debt will continue to decline. It's a healthier economic outlook in the long term.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:15 | 2714801 madcows
madcows's picture

Overall debt has not dropped.  It's been transferred to the Government (taxpayer).  And, investments are only rising b/c of anticipated QE3.  Feel free to buy Facebook if you're so confident.

Exports aren't rising.  They're falling.  Europe is in recession.  China is in recession or headed that way.  USA is in recession (or headed that way). 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:45 | 2714083 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I wonder if the question asked for the Consumer Confidence survey is: "How confident are you that the US government and Federal Reserve will fuck you over?"

Might explain why so many consumers are so highly confident right now.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 11:40 | 2714234 HarryM
HarryM's picture

VIX 13 handle

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:12 | 2713975 pleseus
pleseus's picture

What will the price of gas be if we get QE3?  $ 8.00 a gallon.  Yeah, that will help the economy.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 13:45 | 2714724 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

What will the price for the world's political stability when wheat, rice and corn prices hit new all time highs soon?

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:12 | 2713976 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

"Summer of George" continues.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:14 | 2713980 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Consumers who expect inflation should buy silver. Go now.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:43 | 2714091 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

This is what they SHOULD do.  But the majority of CONsumers think that a 1% yielding savings account is a good way to "protect their savings."

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 11:02 | 2714141 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Where are these generous 1% savings accounts you speak of? Wells Fargo only gave me 0.01% back in the day and my credit union gives me 0.15%. (No, I am not rich as many people on this site. I've had a very austere decade.)

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:05 | 2714768 madcows
madcows's picture

My bank is paying such a low rate, that I didn't even have to pay taxes on my interest!  BOOYAH!

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:13 | 2713981 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Wash your mouth out with soap. The Fed says there is NO inflation.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:15 | 2713992 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They also said gold is not money.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:18 | 2713998 malikai
malikai's picture

They also said I could be anything I wanted.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:23 | 2714019 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It seems Ben flunked history...........or he's just really really really in denial.

"Currently, most modern monetary systems are based on fiat money. However, for most of history, almost all money was commodity money, such as gold and silver coins."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:15 | 2713982 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Bush did it!!

 

But he could not have done it without govts help. Barack Obama

 

 

 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 14:17 | 2714803 madcows
madcows's picture

The WHOLE government did it, with the Help of the FED.  Quit being so gullible.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:14 | 2713983 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

They should take a look at the Baltic Dry Index to get cheered up. 

 

No, wait..

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:14 | 2713984 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Step right up, to the greatest show on Earth!

Never mind the bollocks!

 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:15 | 2713989 Auburn
Auburn's picture

Pishhhhh .... if the numbers aren't bullish, us muppets know nothing!  If the numbers come in great, bullish!!!  Onwards and upwards the algos shall tick.   

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:17 | 2713996 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Same thing every time. Gasoline.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:19 | 2713997 Dr. Engali
Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:21 | 2714012 vertexa
vertexa's picture

Olympic effect?

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 12:08 | 2714317 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

yeah, wasn't it Yahoo that just hired that blonde chick to run the show....?

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:18 | 2714000 vertexa
vertexa's picture

Marc Faber warns that “we’re in the late stage of a mature market and not a new bull.”

Beware the false rally coming soon, says world renown bear Marc Faber. He says catalysts are currently in place that could trigger an advance. “We could go to 1450 or even 1500,” Faber says. However, he warns that “we’re in the late stage of a mature market and not a new bull.”

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:18 | 2714001 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

"American Spring" or maybe renamed to "American Fall" ....TIMMMMMMBBBBBER

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:20 | 2714009 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Factoring in the recent rises in gas and food costs (seen hamburger prices lately?), I would imagine that true CPI is now at least 12% per annum or 1% Month-to-month.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:32 | 2714049 madcows
madcows's picture

Year over year by my calcs:  Food is up 11%, gas is flat (but up 30 cents in the past month).

CPI is a veriable stat.  If you live in the city and don't buy gas, your number is different than a suburbanite that drives 60 miles each day.  Keep your own records and see what your personal inflation rate is. 

Note, my cost of living is up 8+% this year, primarily on food and heating oil.

 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 11:07 | 2714158 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Inflation is out of control.  A plastic pail at Walmart costs between $6-$8.  Seems one can't afford a pot to piss in anymore.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:22 | 2714013 eclecticskeptic
eclecticskeptic's picture

If anyone knew what to do, they'd have done it a long time ago.

J

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:25 | 2714029 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If anyone knew what to do.........to do what? "Fix" the system?

They don't want to "fix" the system.....unless you mean they want a system they can fix in their favor.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 12:08 | 2714319 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

They "fixed" it 40yrs ago. We just arent on "their" team.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 16:13 | 2715191 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

This is exactly what's what. We aren't on the team, otherwise we wouldn't be on ZH trying to figure out how this system is going to come unstuck. All I know is there is no work right now. It's like August in Europe, only in the US people used to work. Except in August of 2008. I can't remember what was special about that year, but this feels the same as that. 

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:25 | 2714018 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

and the GRRRRRRRRRRRRIND on the DJIA upward continues. be interesting to see next month's #s when Joe Six-Pack and Susie SUV have to fill-er-up for $4.25+ a gallon. time to go change the oil (myself) on the old-high mileage beauty in the garage-keep 'er runnin'

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:38 | 2714064 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

...I predict you are going to witness a stock market flush today. Leading indicator puts Daddy Bernanke in a box. If he unleashes QE3, he will completely demonstrate his depression, total lack of confidence and basic coward persona that he may just be.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:25 | 2714023 StrawberryBlonde
StrawberryBlonde's picture

It's not surprising when nothing is being done to create jobs.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:31 | 2714046 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You're assuming that they want jobs created. When we live on a planet with finite resources growth is not necessarily what they want. Less economic activity equates to a slow down in usage. Eventually it will come to a point where they will put in policies to reduce the population to a more managable level.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:42 | 2714087 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Who are they in this case?

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:57 | 2714134 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

TPTB. The people who really lord over us. Scary people.....people you don't want to knw.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 12:12 | 2714337 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Historicly those policies are called "WAR".

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:34 | 2714052 madcows
madcows's picture

Question:  Is it inflation if only Food, Gas and Oil are going up in price while discretionary costs are going down?  used iPads are real cheap now.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:37 | 2714062 SaveTheGreenback
SaveTheGreenback's picture

I hope for inflation.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:43 | 2714092 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Inflation won't happen in things not needed, at least not yet.

Examples in $:

Oats
2004 - 150
2012 - 400

Wheat
2004 - 375
2012 - 875

Soybeans
2004 - 625
2012 - 1750

Oil
2004 - 50
2012 - 90

Gasoline
2006 - 1.9
2012 - 3.0

Lumber
2004 - 350
2012 - 275

Copper
2006 - 3.5
2012 - 3.5

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 11:19 | 2714184 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

AHHHHHHH.......

At  last a diet that really works ..... starvation.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 10:44 | 2714098 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Check out the deflationary move in the dollar today. Wow.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 11:11 | 2714167 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

You guys are too depressing. I'm going to go watch CNBC.

 

Fuck it, it's Friday.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 11:19 | 2714185 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The technical is called "the natural rate of inflation." and in an American economy "it alone can create the largest oil reserves in history."

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 11:42 | 2714238 papicek
papicek's picture

Oh please. So consumer confidence is up mildly. Inflation is demand driven and demand is feeble. even the better retail numbers emerging show reduced revenues, and mid-range retailers still underperform both luxury and bargain retailers.

Too soon to cry wolf on inflation.

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 17:30 | 2715444 redd_green
redd_green's picture

.... unless you have to so extravigant things, like .... eat.   

Fri, 08/17/2012 - 11:42 | 2714239 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Inflation?

Hoocodanode? 

 

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