ECRI's Achutan Says US Is "Entering A New Recession"

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Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:01 | 1725253 FOC 1183
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he's saying today's weekly index will be down sharply. Is predictable given last week's decline in S&P

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:58 | 1725401 slewie the pi-rat
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glutes, BiCheZ!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 12:07 | 1726092 redpill
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He's wrong, we're not entering a new recession.  We never got out of the last one.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:18 | 1725257 GeneMarchbanks
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The whitest Indian guy I've ever heard/seen.

Sat, 10/01/2011 - 11:29 | 1728918 mkkby
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The Indian Michael Jackson.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:04 | 1725260 DavosSherman
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Maybe in 10 years they'll realize we've been in a depression since 2007.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:08 | 1725270 firstdivision
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More like since 2001 as the only "economic" growth was devaluing the dollar.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:26 | 1725313 johnQpublic
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back it up a bit further, to the tech stock bubble popping, or maybe back to the S+L fiasco, or maybe back to 1981 or the 70's oil embargo or, ah fuck it

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:08 | 1725441 fuu
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It is a fairly deep rabbit hole.

Sat, 10/01/2011 - 03:02 | 1728376 jeff montanye
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real u.s. wages peaked in 1973.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:44 | 1725567 Cursive
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I'm voting it was 2001. Would be a great ZH poll, though.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:17 | 1725657 sushi
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Since 2001 the growth was due to blowing a huge credit bubble in housing plus Bush's Keynesian stimulus as provided by war in Iraq and Afghanistan plus domestic expansion of Homeland Security and TSA gropers.

Back those effects out and what have you got?


Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:11 | 1725273 DormRoom
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for the bottom 30% of the population the depression never arrested. For 50% of the population (middle class) it starting to feel like a recession. For the top 20% it's been an annoyance that their 500 ft yacht cost more.


It was the best of times.  It was the worse of times.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:27 | 1725317 johnQpublic
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it was the end times.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:44 | 1725360 RunningMan
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This is largely accurate. I think its:

Bottom 30% Depression; Middle 60% Severe Recession; Next 8% Recession, Top 2% Salad days

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:03 | 1725419 Bicycle Repairman
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"For the top 20% it's been an annoyance that their 500 ft yacht cost more."

Top .1% you mean.  Government types and their sycophants (and I mean you) would like to tax the next 19.9% into poverty to pay for this debacle.  You guys will never touch the top .1%, because they own your a$$.  And your mind.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 20:28 | 1799171 Problem Is
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If I could give more than +1 for that analysis... I would...

BTW: 9/30/11???  Tyler's link from 10/21/11 sent me into the wayback machine...

Berlusconi Screws Over The Wrong Person: ECB Shake Up Imminent Following Big French-Italian Relations SNAFU?

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:11 | 1725282 cossack55
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Maybe Studs Terkel would be interested in writing "Hard Times, Part Deux". Afterall, his first tome was written 41 years ago and most contributors are now dead.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:04 | 1725262 Momauguin Joe
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Main stream media this week provided blinding glimpses of the obvious.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:05 | 1725264 TraderMark
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Here is the video from CNBC this morning with Achuthan

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:11 | 1725272 anynonmous
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Best to wait for the audio from Bloomberg unless you like looking at Arnold's twin sister

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:38 | 1725345 TraderMark
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lol. then close your eyes. ;)

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:05 | 1725265 maxmad
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Actung, bitchez!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:06 | 1725269 anynonmous
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but he said it wasn't a double dip nor a continuation of the "previous" recession

he did imply that there are no glimmers of light suggesting that it won't be a short one

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:12 | 1725285 New_Meat
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and "many leading indicators" all pointing down.  and "we'll see in a year"

I predict that the Red Sox won't make the wild card slot.

- Ned

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:09 | 1725276 economics1996
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Opps there it is...[1][id]=M2V


Printing money, throwing a party, all the bitches, and now the party is over.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:09 | 1725277 westboundnup
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"it's not reversable" should be the catch phrase of 2011.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:10 | 1725279 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Bout time.

Last year it was in recession as per ecri but nope, never happened. So it makes the index pointless.

If it's wrong again, they might as well shut it down.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:47 | 1726600 HarryHaller
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That was actually for the weekly ECRI, which Achuthan said himself wasn't always reliable and at that time didn't necessarily indicate a recession.^dji,^gspc,spy,dji,MAN,UUP,TLT

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:11 | 1725280 FoieGras
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Well the truth is Achuthan was dead right in July/August 2010 and the bears were *DEAD WRONG*. And I'd put my money with Achuthan once again right now with their call and this time the dumbass perma bulls and "just a soft patch" talking heads will be dead wrong.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:15 | 1725287 Robslob
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"by Barrak Hussein Obama"


Ben Bernanke

Timmy " Turbo Tax" Geithner


Bankrupt of America

Wells Fuego

Goldman Sacks

Shiti Bank

Bureau of Lies and Statisticz

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:29 | 1725322 johnQpublic
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and it will kill all the polar bears too

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:19 | 1725294 FoieGras
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The author of this post makes a mistake in assuming a -10 growth rate on the ECRI US Leading Indicator automatically means the ECRI calls a recession. That is incorrect. From what I gather from Achuthan's explanation is that they need a certain self-feeding dynamic between long-term cyclical components such as unemployment, inventories, etc. that creates a viscious cycle in order to call a recession.

They kept saying during the summer of 2010 they can not yet observe a viscious cycle in the economy yet and refused to call a recession while every bear on the street was yelling from the roofs that the "double dip is a done deal".

Now the bears are only half as loud as many still remember being embrassed so badly in 2010 while the naive perma-bulls are making the rounds on CNBC that the 'worst is already behind us'. A perfect setup for a deep slump through fall and winter 2010/11.

Sat, 10/01/2011 - 11:40 | 1728938 mkkby
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Naw, Lak is wrong.  Look what just happened to weekly unemployment claims... big reduction in claims.  We had a slowdown in May, which just ended.  Probably just reaction to Fukushima and Japan shortages, now finally ending.

Back to long term stagflation, but no recession.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:20 | 1725296 buzzsaw99
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Those retards just look at the stock market.

Down = recession.

Up = no recession

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:27 | 1725316 SheepDog-One
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LOL exactly. The biggest simpletons among us run the show.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:21 | 1725297 junkyardjack
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Back like cooked crack.  Now we just have to wait for consensus research to get the memo and adjust their estimates accordingly

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:24 | 1725307 SheepDog-One
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Hey as long as they dont sense any deflation in the FED's precious 'assets', thats all that matters.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:25 | 1725309 Enkidu78
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We all know QE3 will save us... Print already!!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:27 | 1725315 myne
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How do you re-enter something you never left?

The current situation could be likened to a space craft that unwittingly crossed the event horizon of a black hole. Engines maxed out, it looks like they're making progress, but all they've succeeded in doing is nearly stabilising their orbit. Soon, they will run out of fuel. Their orbit will decay, and they will spiral for what looks feels like an eternity to outside observers.

The debtent horizon.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:05 | 1725431 Zedge Hero
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It's the Transistory Time Machine!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:28 | 1725319 overmedicatedun...
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I am so happy to see how well the banksters and captured gov pols have turned the vibrant economy of the USA into a constant bailout fraud..requiring saving thru more debt every few weeks

Free trade and open borders who knew it would lead to this world wide mess??

elite reptile NWO/Davos/aliens  love the misery they cause while avoiding even the single pointed finger..."THEY LIVE "is as good a movie as any wall st expose on what our society really is. see it laugh then it will sink in watch it again and you will not laugh  as much....

soon you will be wearing those Dark glasses like many of us. They do live and they are not one of US.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:31 | 1725326 johnQpublic
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who knew?


H Ross Perot, thats who

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:33 | 1725331 SheepDog-One
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The FED is truly screwed, the decided a few years ago to go all-in and support 'bank assets' made up largely of real estate ETF's, and those are never coming back. They'll never pass off the pump, same as whats going on with stocks. Hey keep pumping the stocks FED, youre the only buyer!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:36 | 1725339 lizzy36
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No fears.

The Second Coming is arriving in the form of an obese white man from New Jersey.

Yanks going to swap the black dude for the obese dude and problem solved ;)

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:38 | 1725346 GeneMarchbanks
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Funny cause it's true;)

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:50 | 1725584 Pool Shark
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Meet the new boss...

Same as the old boss...


Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:29 | 1725695 King_of_simpletons
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Reminds me of the "Trill" from Star Trek. The same being, different host. You get jack shit done.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:44 | 1725363 sbenard
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No surprise to ZH readers!

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