ECRI's Achutan Says US Is "Entering A New Recession"

Tyler Durden's picture

Last year the ECRI index was the bete noir leading indicator of the market: while the index clearly indicated the US had entered a recession, its creator Lakshman Achutan consistently refuted the findings of the index, instead pushing a contrary view that the US was in fact growing. Then came QE2 and with it s 9 month suspension of reality. That time is over, as is Achutan's ongoing attempt to deny facts. As of a minutes ago, the ECRI's head told Bloomberg Radio that the U.S. is "tipping into a new recession." "He added: "We don’t make these calls lightly. When we make them, it’s because there’s an overwhelming objective message coming out of our forward-looking indicators. What is going on with the leading indicators is wildfire; it’s not reversible.” As Zero Hedge first said months ago, when it finally extracts its head from between its gluteui maximus, we expet the NBER to proclaim the re-recession as having started in June/July.

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FOC 1183's picture

he's saying today's weekly index will be down sharply. Is predictable given last week's decline in S&P

redpill's picture

He's wrong, we're not entering a new recession.  We never got out of the last one.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

The whitest Indian guy I've ever heard/seen.

mkkby's picture

The Indian Michael Jackson.

DavosSherman's picture

Maybe in 10 years they'll realize we've been in a depression since 2007.

firstdivision's picture

More like since 2001 as the only "economic" growth was devaluing the dollar.

johnQpublic's picture

back it up a bit further, to the tech stock bubble popping, or maybe back to the S+L fiasco, or maybe back to 1981 or the 70's oil embargo or, ah fuck it

fuu's picture

It is a fairly deep rabbit hole.

jeff montanye's picture

real u.s. wages peaked in 1973.

Cursive's picture


I'm voting it was 2001. Would be a great ZH poll, though.

sushi's picture


Since 2001 the growth was due to blowing a huge credit bubble in housing plus Bush's Keynesian stimulus as provided by war in Iraq and Afghanistan plus domestic expansion of Homeland Security and TSA gropers.

Back those effects out and what have you got?


DormRoom's picture

for the bottom 30% of the population the depression never arrested. For 50% of the population (middle class) it starting to feel like a recession. For the top 20% it's been an annoyance that their 500 ft yacht cost more.


It was the best of times.  It was the worse of times.

RunningMan's picture

This is largely accurate. I think its:

Bottom 30% Depression; Middle 60% Severe Recession; Next 8% Recession, Top 2% Salad days

Bicycle Repairman's picture

"For the top 20% it's been an annoyance that their 500 ft yacht cost more."

Top .1% you mean.  Government types and their sycophants (and I mean you) would like to tax the next 19.9% into poverty to pay for this debacle.  You guys will never touch the top .1%, because they own your a$$.  And your mind.

Problem Is's picture

If I could give more than +1 for that analysis... I would...

BTW: 9/30/11???  Tyler's link from 10/21/11 sent me into the wayback machine...

Berlusconi Screws Over The Wrong Person: ECB Shake Up Imminent Following Big French-Italian Relations SNAFU?

cossack55's picture

Maybe Studs Terkel would be interested in writing "Hard Times, Part Deux". Afterall, his first tome was written 41 years ago and most contributors are now dead.

Momauguin Joe's picture

Main stream media this week provided blinding glimpses of the obvious.

anynonmous's picture


Best to wait for the audio from Bloomberg unless you like looking at Arnold's twin sister

TraderMark's picture

lol. then close your eyes. ;)

maxmad's picture

Actung, bitchez!

anynonmous's picture

but he said it wasn't a double dip nor a continuation of the "previous" recession

he did imply that there are no glimmers of light suggesting that it won't be a short one

New_Meat's picture

and "many leading indicators" all pointing down.  and "we'll see in a year"

I predict that the Red Sox won't make the wild card slot.

- Ned

economics1996's picture

Opps there it is...[1][id]=M2V


Printing money, throwing a party, all the bitches, and now the party is over.

westboundnup's picture

"it's not reversable" should be the catch phrase of 2011.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Bout time.

Last year it was in recession as per ecri but nope, never happened. So it makes the index pointless.

If it's wrong again, they might as well shut it down.

HarryHaller's picture

That was actually for the weekly ECRI, which Achuthan said himself wasn't always reliable and at that time didn't necessarily indicate a recession.^dji,^gspc,spy,dji,MAN,UUP,TLT

FoieGras's picture

Well the truth is Achuthan was dead right in July/August 2010 and the bears were *DEAD WRONG*. And I'd put my money with Achuthan once again right now with their call and this time the dumbass perma bulls and "just a soft patch" talking heads will be dead wrong.

Robslob's picture





"by Barrak Hussein Obama"


Ben Bernanke

Timmy " Turbo Tax" Geithner


Bankrupt of America

Wells Fuego

Goldman Sacks

Shiti Bank

Bureau of Lies and Statisticz

johnQpublic's picture

and it will kill all the polar bears too

FoieGras's picture

The author of this post makes a mistake in assuming a -10 growth rate on the ECRI US Leading Indicator automatically means the ECRI calls a recession. That is incorrect. From what I gather from Achuthan's explanation is that they need a certain self-feeding dynamic between long-term cyclical components such as unemployment, inventories, etc. that creates a viscious cycle in order to call a recession.

They kept saying during the summer of 2010 they can not yet observe a viscious cycle in the economy yet and refused to call a recession while every bear on the street was yelling from the roofs that the "double dip is a done deal".

Now the bears are only half as loud as many still remember being embrassed so badly in 2010 while the naive perma-bulls are making the rounds on CNBC that the 'worst is already behind us'. A perfect setup for a deep slump through fall and winter 2010/11.

mkkby's picture

Naw, Lak is wrong.  Look what just happened to weekly unemployment claims... big reduction in claims.  We had a slowdown in May, which just ended.  Probably just reaction to Fukushima and Japan shortages, now finally ending.

Back to long term stagflation, but no recession.

buzzsaw99's picture

Those retards just look at the stock market.

Down = recession.

Up = no recession

SheepDog-One's picture

LOL exactly. The biggest simpletons among us run the show.

junkyardjack's picture

Back like cooked crack.  Now we just have to wait for consensus research to get the memo and adjust their estimates accordingly

SheepDog-One's picture

Hey as long as they dont sense any deflation in the FED's precious 'assets', thats all that matters.

Enkidu78's picture

We all know QE3 will save us... Print already!!

myne's picture

How do you re-enter something you never left?

The current situation could be likened to a space craft that unwittingly crossed the event horizon of a black hole. Engines maxed out, it looks like they're making progress, but all they've succeeded in doing is nearly stabilising their orbit. Soon, they will run out of fuel. Their orbit will decay, and they will spiral for what looks feels like an eternity to outside observers.

The debtent horizon.

Zedge Hero's picture

It's the Transistory Time Machine!

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

I am so happy to see how well the banksters and captured gov pols have turned the vibrant economy of the USA into a constant bailout fraud..requiring saving thru more debt every few weeks

Free trade and open borders who knew it would lead to this world wide mess??

elite reptile NWO/Davos/aliens  love the misery they cause while avoiding even the single pointed finger..."THEY LIVE "is as good a movie as any wall st expose on what our society really is. see it laugh then it will sink in watch it again and you will not laugh  as much....

soon you will be wearing those Dark glasses like many of us. They do live and they are not one of US.

johnQpublic's picture

who knew?


H Ross Perot, thats who

SheepDog-One's picture

The FED is truly screwed, the decided a few years ago to go all-in and support 'bank assets' made up largely of real estate ETF's, and those are never coming back. They'll never pass off the pump, same as whats going on with stocks. Hey keep pumping the stocks FED, youre the only buyer!

lizzy36's picture

No fears.

The Second Coming is arriving in the form of an obese white man from New Jersey.

Yanks going to swap the black dude for the obese dude and problem solved ;)

Pool Shark's picture



Meet the new boss...

Same as the old boss...


King_of_simpletons's picture

Reminds me of the "Trill" from Star Trek. The same being, different host. You get jack shit done.

sbenard's picture

No surprise to ZH readers!