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ECRI's Achutan Says US Is "Entering A New Recession"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Last year the ECRI index was the bete noir leading indicator of the market: while the index clearly indicated the US had entered a recession, its creator Lakshman Achutan consistently refuted the findings of the index, instead pushing a contrary view that the US was in fact growing. Then came QE2 and with it s 9 month suspension of reality. That time is over, as is Achutan's ongoing attempt to deny facts. As of a minutes ago, the ECRI's head told Bloomberg Radio that the U.S. is "tipping into a new recession." "He added: "We don’t make these calls lightly. When we make them, it’s because there’s an overwhelming objective message coming out of our forward-looking indicators. What is going on with the leading indicators is wildfire; it’s not reversible.” As Zero Hedge first said months ago, when it finally extracts its head from between its gluteui maximus, we expet the NBER to proclaim the re-recession as having started in June/July.

 


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Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:01 | Link to Comment FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

he's saying today's weekly index will be down sharply. Is predictable given last week's decline in S&P

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:58 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

glutes, BiCheZ!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 12:07 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

He's wrong, we're not entering a new recession.  We never got out of the last one.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:18 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

The whitest Indian guy I've ever heard/seen.

Sat, 10/01/2011 - 11:29 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

The Indian Michael Jackson.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:04 | Link to Comment DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Maybe in 10 years they'll realize we've been in a depression since 2007.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:08 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

More like since 2001 as the only "economic" growth was devaluing the dollar.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:26 | Link to Comment johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

back it up a bit further, to the tech stock bubble popping, or maybe back to the S+L fiasco, or maybe back to 1981 or the 70's oil embargo or, ah fuck it

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:08 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

It is a fairly deep rabbit hole.

Sat, 10/01/2011 - 03:02 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

real u.s. wages peaked in 1973.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@firstdivision

I'm voting it was 2001. Would be a great ZH poll, though.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment sushi
sushi's picture

Agreed.

Since 2001 the growth was due to blowing a huge credit bubble in housing plus Bush's Keynesian stimulus as provided by war in Iraq and Afghanistan plus domestic expansion of Homeland Security and TSA gropers.

Back those effects out and what have you got?

 

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:11 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

for the bottom 30% of the population the depression never arrested. For 50% of the population (middle class) it starting to feel like a recession. For the top 20% it's been an annoyance that their 500 ft yacht cost more.

 

It was the best of times.  It was the worse of times.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:27 | Link to Comment johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

it was the end times.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:44 | Link to Comment RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

This is largely accurate. I think its:

Bottom 30% Depression; Middle 60% Severe Recession; Next 8% Recession, Top 2% Salad days

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"For the top 20% it's been an annoyance that their 500 ft yacht cost more."

Top .1% you mean.  Government types and their sycophants (and I mean you) would like to tax the next 19.9% into poverty to pay for this debacle.  You guys will never touch the top .1%, because they own your a$$.  And your mind.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 20:28 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

If I could give more than +1 for that analysis... I would...

BTW: 9/30/11???  Tyler's link from 10/21/11 sent me into the wayback machine...

Berlusconi Screws Over The Wrong Person: ECB Shake Up Imminent Following Big French-Italian Relations SNAFU?

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:11 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Maybe Studs Terkel would be interested in writing "Hard Times, Part Deux". Afterall, his first tome was written 41 years ago and most contributors are now dead.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:04 | Link to Comment Momauguin Joe
Momauguin Joe's picture

Main stream media this week provided blinding glimpses of the obvious.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:05 | Link to Comment TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

Here is the video from CNBC this morning with Achuthan

 

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/09/video-ecris-lakshman-achuthan-ma...

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:11 | Link to Comment anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/components/Syndicated%20Video%20Player/vide...

 

Best to wait for the audio from Bloomberg unless you like looking at Arnold's twin sister

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:38 | Link to Comment TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

lol. then close your eyes. ;)

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:05 | Link to Comment maxmad
maxmad's picture

Actung, bitchez!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:06 | Link to Comment anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

but he said it wasn't a double dip nor a continuation of the "previous" recession

he did imply that there are no glimmers of light suggesting that it won't be a short one

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:12 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

and "many leading indicators" all pointing down.  and "we'll see in a year"

I predict that the Red Sox won't make the wild card slot.

- Ned

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:09 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

Opps there it is...

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=M2V

 

Printing money, throwing a party, fu..ing all the bitches, and now the party is over.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:09 | Link to Comment westboundnup
westboundnup's picture

"it's not reversable" should be the catch phrase of 2011.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:10 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Bout time.

Last year it was in recession as per ecri but nope, never happened. So it makes the index pointless.

If it's wrong again, they might as well shut it down.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 13:47 | Link to Comment HarryHaller
HarryHaller's picture

That was actually for the weekly ECRI, which Achuthan said himself wasn't always reliable and at that time didn't necessarily indicate a recession.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/%22we%27re-definitely-rolling-over%22-but-double-dip-not-assured-ecri%27s-achuthan-says-506052.html?tickers=^dji,^gspc,spy,dji,MAN,UUP,TLT

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:11 | Link to Comment FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Well the truth is Achuthan was dead right in July/August 2010 and the bears were *DEAD WRONG*. And I'd put my money with Achuthan once again right now with their call and this time the dumbass perma bulls and "just a soft patch" talking heads will be dead wrong.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:15 | Link to Comment Robslob
Robslob's picture

 

 

 

THE U.S. RECESSION: AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH!

"by Barrak Hussein Obama"

Credits:

Ben Bernanke

Timmy " Turbo Tax" Geithner

Chaze

Bankrupt of America

Wells Fuego

Goldman Sacks

Shiti Bank

Bureau of Lies and Statisticz



Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:29 | Link to Comment johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

and it will kill all the polar bears too

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:19 | Link to Comment FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

The author of this post makes a mistake in assuming a -10 growth rate on the ECRI US Leading Indicator automatically means the ECRI calls a recession. That is incorrect. From what I gather from Achuthan's explanation is that they need a certain self-feeding dynamic between long-term cyclical components such as unemployment, inventories, etc. that creates a viscious cycle in order to call a recession.

They kept saying during the summer of 2010 they can not yet observe a viscious cycle in the economy yet and refused to call a recession while every bear on the street was yelling from the roofs that the "double dip is a done deal".

Now the bears are only half as loud as many still remember being embrassed so badly in 2010 while the naive perma-bulls are making the rounds on CNBC that the 'worst is already behind us'. A perfect setup for a deep slump through fall and winter 2010/11.

Sat, 10/01/2011 - 11:40 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

Naw, Lak is wrong.  Look what just happened to weekly unemployment claims... big reduction in claims.  We had a slowdown in May, which just ended.  Probably just reaction to Fukushima and Japan shortages, now finally ending.

Back to long term stagflation, but no recession.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:20 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Those retards just look at the stock market.

Down = recession.

Up = no recession

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:27 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL exactly. The biggest simpletons among us run the show.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:21 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Back like cooked crack.  Now we just have to wait for consensus research to get the memo and adjust their estimates accordingly

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:24 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey as long as they dont sense any deflation in the FED's precious 'assets', thats all that matters.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:25 | Link to Comment Enkidu78
Enkidu78's picture

We all know QE3 will save us... Print already!!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:27 | Link to Comment myne
myne's picture

How do you re-enter something you never left?

The current situation could be likened to a space craft that unwittingly crossed the event horizon of a black hole. Engines maxed out, it looks like they're making progress, but all they've succeeded in doing is nearly stabilising their orbit. Soon, they will run out of fuel. Their orbit will decay, and they will spiral for what looks feels like an eternity to outside observers.

The debtent horizon.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Zedge Hero
Zedge Hero's picture

It's the Transistory Time Machine!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:28 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

I am so happy to see how well the banksters and captured gov pols have turned the vibrant economy of the USA into a constant bailout fraud..requiring saving thru more debt every few weeks

Free trade and open borders who knew it would lead to this world wide mess??

elite reptile NWO/Davos/aliens  love the misery they cause while avoiding even the single pointed finger..."THEY LIVE "is as good a movie as any wall st expose on what our society really is. see it laugh then it will sink in watch it again and you will not laugh  as much....

soon you will be wearing those Dark glasses like many of us. They do live and they are not one of US.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:31 | Link to Comment johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

who knew?

 

H Ross Perot, thats who

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:33 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The FED is truly screwed, the decided a few years ago to go all-in and support 'bank assets' made up largely of real estate ETF's, and those are never coming back. They'll never pass off the pump, same as whats going on with stocks. Hey keep pumping the stocks FED, youre the only buyer!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:36 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

No fears.

The Second Coming is arriving in the form of an obese white man from New Jersey.

Yanks going to swap the black dude for the obese dude and problem solved ;)

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:38 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Funny cause it's true;)

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Meet the new boss...

Same as the old boss...

 

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:29 | Link to Comment King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Reminds me of the "Trill" from Star Trek. The same being, different host. You get jack shit done.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:44 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

No surprise to ZH readers!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:46 | Link to Comment Tom_333
Tom_333's picture

"when it finally extracts its head from between its gluteui maximus"... should be glutei maximii

Otherwise just waiting for the (mini-) crash so that I can cash in

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:11 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

tyler does the strange to latin, for sure! 

we recently had a whole string where people were trying to recover from his made-up plural of deus ex machina, while correcting him!

it was just blasphemous, i tell ya!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:19 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Good times.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:04 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

timmy you are the most qualified lying backstabber kleptocrat they could find, who was stupid enough to take the Job..he and ben fear no retrobution. they only look forward to lives of privalige.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:04 | Link to Comment Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

When did we leave the last one?  It's a bloated Depression.  Without Fed printing press, it would be a Depression now.  However it has only kicked the can down the road.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:14 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

bloating + depression = flee!  flee!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:12 | Link to Comment Jim B
Jim B's picture

I have a small biz and have seen a noticeable slow down over the last 4-6 weeks.... Coincidence or recession 2.0?  

 

Another factor could be the wobbly financial markers, it feels like 2008...... Again  

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:15 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

TYLER - THIS IS REALLY, REALLY IMPORTANT:

It's glutei maximi in the plural.  :D

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Whether I was recessed or depressed it never ended and in fact was just kicking in to high gear when the assholes on the TV started rejoicing about it being over! IMO all those not in agreement were obviously at least a few rungs higher on the ponzi ladder than me.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

Here is comparison chart between my feb 6th chart of DJIA and actual prices. After 8 months with mistakes in the middle, its for last 2 months within 0-5% of actual DJIA:

 

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2860#p34298

 

In original chart, the trend continues to go down with increasing speed. Recession in the USA is guaranteed in Q1 2012.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:59 | Link to Comment FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Did the CNBC anchor crackheads seriously bring up Jack f'king Welch as an example of a businessman saying there won't be a recession? This idiot drove GE into the ground with his subprime/finance arm and never saw the 2008 debacle coming and now Welch has any credibility left to tell us there's no recession coming? You have got to be kidding me.

Sat, 10/01/2011 - 14:47 | Link to Comment MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

It will take at least a generation to destroy the Bill of Rights and make the American people pliable enough to be compliant with the North American Union.  Expect more illegal immigration from uneducated Hispanic Catholics (ignorant welfare parasites that always vote for whoever promises them the biggest hand out).  Expect more tyranny.  Expect an ever increasingly brutal police state.  Expect just enough hand outs from your benevolent rulers to keep you alive (with a healthy dose of "planned parenthood", birth control, abortions, and sterilization).

 

This isn't going to end any time soon.  This is how liberty dies in America, not with a crash-bang, but with a chuckle as the sheeple watch sitcoms on TV and eat their SNAP rations.

 

Those of you preparing for some biblical end times or the Blue Helmeted U.N. troops to storm downtown Peoria are going to be disappointed.  They can drag this out as long as they need to in order to accomplish their social engineering goals.

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