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ECRI's Achutan Says US Is "Entering A New Recession"
Last year the ECRI index was the bete noir leading indicator of the market: while the index clearly indicated the US had entered a recession, its creator Lakshman Achutan consistently refuted the findings of the index, instead pushing a contrary view that the US was in fact growing. Then came QE2 and with it s 9 month suspension of reality. That time is over, as is Achutan's ongoing attempt to deny facts. As of a minutes ago, the ECRI's head told Bloomberg Radio that the U.S. is "tipping into a new recession." "He added: "We don’t make these calls lightly. When we make them, it’s because there’s an overwhelming objective message coming out of our forward-looking indicators. What is going on with the leading indicators is wildfire; it’s not reversible.” As Zero Hedge first said months ago, when it finally extracts its head from between its gluteui maximus, we expet the NBER to proclaim the re-recession as having started in June/July.
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he's saying today's weekly index will be down sharply. Is predictable given last week's decline in S&P
glutes, BiCheZ!
He's wrong, we're not entering a new recession. We never got out of the last one.
The whitest Indian guy I've ever heard/seen.
The Indian Michael Jackson.
Maybe in 10 years they'll realize we've been in a depression since 2007.
More like since 2001 as the only "economic" growth was devaluing the dollar.
back it up a bit further, to the tech stock bubble popping, or maybe back to the S+L fiasco, or maybe back to 1981 or the 70's oil embargo or, ah fuck it
It is a fairly deep rabbit hole.
real u.s. wages peaked in 1973.
@firstdivision
I'm voting it was 2001. Would be a great ZH poll, though.
Agreed.
Since 2001 the growth was due to blowing a huge credit bubble in housing plus Bush's Keynesian stimulus as provided by war in Iraq and Afghanistan plus domestic expansion of Homeland Security and TSA gropers.
Back those effects out and what have you got?
for the bottom 30% of the population the depression never arrested. For 50% of the population (middle class) it starting to feel like a recession. For the top 20% it's been an annoyance that their 500 ft yacht cost more.
It was the best of times. It was the worse of times.
it was the end times.
This is largely accurate. I think its:
Bottom 30% Depression; Middle 60% Severe Recession; Next 8% Recession, Top 2% Salad days
"For the top 20% it's been an annoyance that their 500 ft yacht cost more."
Top .1% you mean. Government types and their sycophants (and I mean you) would like to tax the next 19.9% into poverty to pay for this debacle. You guys will never touch the top .1%, because they own your a$$. And your mind.
If I could give more than +1 for that analysis... I would...
BTW: 9/30/11??? Tyler's link from 10/21/11 sent me into the wayback machine...
Berlusconi Screws Over The Wrong Person: ECB Shake Up Imminent Following Big French-Italian Relations SNAFU?
Maybe Studs Terkel would be interested in writing "Hard Times, Part Deux". Afterall, his first tome was written 41 years ago and most contributors are now dead.
Steve (LIES)man in 10 years:
http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRMKlLOmbCagwAMTUI0bOEn4vkNE_8Cf7aoT5nznbaEVjaclMcq
Main stream media this week provided blinding glimpses of the obvious.
Here is the video from CNBC this morning with Achuthan
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/09/video-ecris-lakshman-achuthan-ma...
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/components/Syndicated%20Video%20Player/vide...
Best to wait for the audio from Bloomberg unless you like looking at Arnold's twin sister
lol. then close your eyes. ;)
Actung, bitchez!
but he said it wasn't a double dip nor a continuation of the "previous" recession
he did imply that there are no glimmers of light suggesting that it won't be a short one
and "many leading indicators" all pointing down. and "we'll see in a year"
I predict that the Red Sox won't make the wild card slot.
- Ned
Opps there it is...
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=M2V
Printing money, throwing a party, fu..ing all the bitches, and now the party is over.
"it's not reversable" should be the catch phrase of 2011.
Bout time.
Last year it was in recession as per ecri but nope, never happened. So it makes the index pointless.
If it's wrong again, they might as well shut it down.
That was actually for the weekly ECRI, which Achuthan said himself wasn't always reliable and at that time didn't necessarily indicate a recession.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/%22we%27re-definitely-rolling-over%22-but-double-dip-not-assured-ecri%27s-achuthan-says-506052.html?tickers=^dji,^gspc,spy,dji,MAN,UUP,TLT
Well the truth is Achuthan was dead right in July/August 2010 and the bears were *DEAD WRONG*. And I'd put my money with Achuthan once again right now with their call and this time the dumbass perma bulls and "just a soft patch" talking heads will be dead wrong.
THE U.S. RECESSION: AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH!
"by Barrak Hussein Obama"
Credits:
Ben Bernanke
Timmy " Turbo Tax" Geithner
Chaze
Bankrupt of America
Wells Fuego
Goldman Sacks
Shiti Bank
Bureau of Lies and Statisticz
and it will kill all the polar bears too
The author of this post makes a mistake in assuming a -10 growth rate on the ECRI US Leading Indicator automatically means the ECRI calls a recession. That is incorrect. From what I gather from Achuthan's explanation is that they need a certain self-feeding dynamic between long-term cyclical components such as unemployment, inventories, etc. that creates a viscious cycle in order to call a recession.
They kept saying during the summer of 2010 they can not yet observe a viscious cycle in the economy yet and refused to call a recession while every bear on the street was yelling from the roofs that the "double dip is a done deal".
Now the bears are only half as loud as many still remember being embrassed so badly in 2010 while the naive perma-bulls are making the rounds on CNBC that the 'worst is already behind us'. A perfect setup for a deep slump through fall and winter 2010/11.
Naw, Lak is wrong. Look what just happened to weekly unemployment claims... big reduction in claims. We had a slowdown in May, which just ended. Probably just reaction to Fukushima and Japan shortages, now finally ending.
Back to long term stagflation, but no recession.
Those retards just look at the stock market.
Down = recession.
Up = no recession
LOL exactly. The biggest simpletons among us run the show.
Back like cooked crack. Now we just have to wait for consensus research to get the memo and adjust their estimates accordingly
Hey as long as they dont sense any deflation in the FED's precious 'assets', thats all that matters.
We all know QE3 will save us... Print already!!
How do you re-enter something you never left?
The current situation could be likened to a space craft that unwittingly crossed the event horizon of a black hole. Engines maxed out, it looks like they're making progress, but all they've succeeded in doing is nearly stabilising their orbit. Soon, they will run out of fuel. Their orbit will decay, and they will spiral for what looks feels like an eternity to outside observers.
The debtent horizon.
It's the Transistory Time Machine!
I am so happy to see how well the banksters and captured gov pols have turned the vibrant economy of the USA into a constant bailout fraud..requiring saving thru more debt every few weeks
Free trade and open borders who knew it would lead to this world wide mess??
elite reptile NWO/Davos/aliens love the misery they cause while avoiding even the single pointed finger..."THEY LIVE "is as good a movie as any wall st expose on what our society really is. see it laugh then it will sink in watch it again and you will not laugh as much....
soon you will be wearing those Dark glasses like many of us. They do live and they are not one of US.
who knew?
H Ross Perot, thats who
The FED is truly screwed, the decided a few years ago to go all-in and support 'bank assets' made up largely of real estate ETF's, and those are never coming back. They'll never pass off the pump, same as whats going on with stocks. Hey keep pumping the stocks FED, youre the only buyer!
No fears.
The Second Coming is arriving in the form of an obese white man from New Jersey.
Yanks going to swap the black dude for the obese dude and problem solved ;)
Funny cause it's true;)
Meet the new boss...
Same as the old boss...
Reminds me of the "Trill" from Star Trek. The same being, different host. You get jack shit done.
No surprise to ZH readers!
"when it finally extracts its head from between its gluteui maximus"... should be glutei maximii
Otherwise just waiting for the (mini-) crash so that I can cash in
tyler does the strange to latin, for sure!
we recently had a whole string where people were trying to recover from his made-up plural of deus ex machina, while correcting him!
it was just blasphemous, i tell ya!
Good times.
timmy you are the most qualified lying backstabber kleptocrat they could find, who was stupid enough to take the Job..he and ben fear no retrobution. they only look forward to lives of privalige.
When did we leave the last one? It's a bloated Depression. Without Fed printing press, it would be a Depression now. However it has only kicked the can down the road.
bloating + depression = flee! flee!
I have a small biz and have seen a noticeable slow down over the last 4-6 weeks.... Coincidence or recession 2.0?
Another factor could be the wobbly financial markers, it feels like 2008...... Again
TYLER - THIS IS REALLY, REALLY IMPORTANT:
It's glutei maximi in the plural. :D
Whether I was recessed or depressed it never ended and in fact was just kicking in to high gear when the assholes on the TV started rejoicing about it being over! IMO all those not in agreement were obviously at least a few rungs higher on the ponzi ladder than me.
Here is comparison chart between my feb 6th chart of DJIA and actual prices. After 8 months with mistakes in the middle, its for last 2 months within 0-5% of actual DJIA:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2860#p34298
In original chart, the trend continues to go down with increasing speed. Recession in the USA is guaranteed in Q1 2012.
Did the CNBC anchor crackheads seriously bring up Jack f'king Welch as an example of a businessman saying there won't be a recession? This idiot drove GE into the ground with his subprime/finance arm and never saw the 2008 debacle coming and now Welch has any credibility left to tell us there's no recession coming? You have got to be kidding me.
It will take at least a generation to destroy the Bill of Rights and make the American people pliable enough to be compliant with the North American Union. Expect more illegal immigration from uneducated Hispanic Catholics (ignorant welfare parasites that always vote for whoever promises them the biggest hand out). Expect more tyranny. Expect an ever increasingly brutal police state. Expect just enough hand outs from your benevolent rulers to keep you alive (with a healthy dose of "planned parenthood", birth control, abortions, and sterilization).
This isn't going to end any time soon. This is how liberty dies in America, not with a crash-bang, but with a chuckle as the sheeple watch sitcoms on TV and eat their SNAP rations.
Those of you preparing for some biblical end times or the Blue Helmeted U.N. troops to storm downtown Peoria are going to be disappointed. They can drag this out as long as they need to in order to accomplish their social engineering goals.