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Egan Jones Downgrades Italy From BB+ To BB, Projects 157% Debt/GDP By 2014
In the face of ponzi-enabling status quo adversity, Sean Egan is not one to mince his words. Sure enough, here comes today's downgrade of Italy from BB+ to BB, an event which has reminded BTPs, if not stocks for now, just what reality is. From the report: "La Acido Vita - from La Dolce Vita, life in Italy has become sour of late; even without the concerns about Greece, Italy is in miserable shape. Over the past 3 fiscal years, total debt has grown by 14.3% while GDP has shrunk by 2.4%. The annual government deficit of EUR68B and the debt to GDP of 119% place additional pressure on credit quality. Furthermore, Italy will probably have to provide additional support to its banks and will see some pressure on its economy. We expect that Italy's banks will continue turning to the ECB and Italy for support. In 2012, the Republic of Italy needs to finance EUR320B of debt and is likely to experience increasing yields and restricted access without external intervention. As of this weekend the yields on the 6 month notes were 6.5%; rates have been rising despite ECB purchases. The major issue is whether the IMF will become involved and if so, whether the face value of the debt will be cut. Italy cannot support all of its debt." And what is probably worse is that according to what are likely very optimistic projections, EJ sees Italian debt/GDP rising from 127% in 2011 to 157% in two years. Indicatively, the cutoff ratio for a CCC-rated sovereign credit in Egan Jones' view is 150% debt/GDP. Say hello to the triple hooks.
Full report can be found here.
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BB, BiCheZ!
Its ok, its ok, TV sales are up for black friday. so everything is going to be ok. sacr/
Not to worry. WH meeting today with EU leaders will result in mega bailout. Most of it secret.
157% debt to GDP... that's almost as bad as the U.S. I guess they don't have Black Fridays in Italy.
Nor do they have black section 8 recipients.
If you believe USdebtclock.org, then US debts and unfunded liabilities are growing at $8.65 trillion a year. That works out to be 57.7% of GDP every year. The super committee of Congress could not agree to $1.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years. The US is in far worse shape than Italy in any metric of debt to GDP. US unfunded liabilities are $116.6 trillion or 777.3% of US GDP. Italy can never hope to catch up to US debt. Eat our dust..... and debt, Italy.
Italy probably also has the same type of unfunded liabilities not included in the figures listed above.
Seriously, 157% base case and they are BB? what does it take to get into the C's? Who would lend these guys money out to 2020 at 7%? Besides Benny, Mario, and the inkjets, that is...
Reality may bite
Nah. According to zee Bernank, it is"contained" so buy GM. After all, it's a bargain 33% below it's IPO and the gubmint needs you to buy this lemon.
GM is a good buy now that the Volt comes standard with a cig lighter.........
8% increase until June?
This is not reality, this is just BS, big time.
Super Mario needs to start making a' more a' pepperoni pizza mama mia!
Clearly, Egan Jones is just a terrorist front for those rascally Muslims who hate us Westerners for our freedoms and want to destroy our way of life.
Now watch this drive!
well as the congressman from california with an mba (can't think of his name) told us on video, debt is proof of how wealthy a country is.....so italy is quite wealthy and in dire need of an upgrade...
Haven't heard that one but it is a classic statement...When did the US abdicate reason?
It was building up over a couple of decades, but with the new millenium all reason seems to have vanished.
Sean Egan is on fire lately.
Unbelievable how by just doing one's job he absolutely levitates above the crowd. Sign of the times...
Arrivaderci Roma!
Go on a fuckin' rampage, EJ!!!!!
How low can they go?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limbo_(dance)
France! downgrade FrAAAnce.
Same goes for AAAustria.
America and Japan, downgrade them!
se helo tu ma lil fico
Can't wait for them to introduce the "New Lira".
Will be a great opportunity to stock up on Brunello and Barolo at bargain $US prices.
Sean Egan for President...I would love to see Washington DC have to deal with the likes of Egan...If ANY American can vote for a standing Congress person, Senator, or the President (who I unfortunately voted for in the last election) we deserve what we get...time for a change America...Let's take a page from Egan & be proactive - Continued Success to Egan & Co -
Noooo, this can't be! All the PhD's in zeuro.pk-banks are screaming Italy is fine. Maybe i should wait for Dick Bove report saying "the country's fine" for confirmation...
Unfortunately, under the prevailing insanity, Dick Bove's incompetence will be precisely the reason he will be hired to run the SEC or Secretary of Commerce...What I cannot believe is how Bove continues to speak his BS publicly without embarrassment...but CNBC will have him on air shortly indicating the Citibank is a SCREAMING BUY because the increased fined imposed by Rakoff will push Citi below certain capital requirements & Geithner & Bernanke will be compelled to 'invest' in Citibank...
why always after european markets close? part of the scam eh!
So let's see:
Rumor (or threat) from banks that the Fed is going to buy 500 billion more in mortgages.
Rumor that the Unemployment benefits are going to be extended (Now you can get free Govt Cheese for years and years)
Rumor that the payroll tax will be extended. (So Social Security loses more money)
All of this comes to about 750 Billion in additional deficits for the US.
I expect the US to be downgraded immediately after any of this happens as our debt to GDP should explode to about 110%
Junk status here we come.....
If you add Fan and Fred aren't we already past 110%?
"Although not included in the debt figures reported by the government, the U.S. government has moved to more explicitly support the soundness of obligations of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, starting in July 2008 via the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, and the September 7, 2008 Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) conservatorship of both government sponsored enterprises (GSEs). The on- or off-balance sheet obligations of those two independent GSEs was just over $5 trillion at the time the conservatorship was put in place" Wiki
That puts us at 133% of GDP - well ahead of Italy now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt
"Rumor that the Unemployment benefits are going to be extended (Now you can get free Govt Cheese for years and years)"
For any particular individual there is a two year maximum unemployment benefit after losing his job.
HAHAHAHAA! And they're too big to bail out!!!!...or was it too big not to bail out?? we'll see lol
WTF?
Screenshot of the Fars News Agency article (that was pulled) about the #Isfahan explosion. #Iran
http://twitpic.com/7l714y
The first casualty of war is truth,
2014? He's being optimistic.
USEU Summit Meeting at WH today underway....Xmas gifts for all??
Japan is worse. Yet Bondzilla is nowhere to be seen. Bondzilla is racist apparently. I mean Japan still at AA? Is this a joke?
"The Republic of Italy??"
What are we missing here?
Was not M - Squared Monte appointed PM via The Cabal as opposed to election via The People?
Yet another who's sovereignty has evaporated.
One day closer to Global Hyperinflationary Depression!
Now I know why the DOW is UP 300 fucking ponzi points...
The sooner someone takes this system down the better.
Over the past 3 fiscal years, total debt has grown by 14.3%
America : +47.5%
while GDP has shrunk by 2.4%.
America : +0.6%
So yeah.
And meanwhile, somewhere deep in the forbidden city of Beijing the secret emperors won't let the white shoe boys touch their currency.....
Japan 2011 numbers :
113 trillion yen spent, 45 trillion yen income in taxes : deficit of 68 trillion yen.
428.73 trillion yen gdp
15.86% of GDP in deficit... + a debt of 200% of GDP and rising fast.
And an aging population.
And the whole Fukushima disaster.
Yet still AA... LOL
Does any of this matter anymore? The hopium indcued, debt backed, endless print parade doesn't seem to be ending any time soon. The market has decoupled from reality to the point that it exists in an alternate dimension where debt actually equals money in the bank. Somehow the market that has turned into the idiot that doesn't know that a number in brackets means he's overdrawn. He walks right up to you and says, "Man my bank is awesome, I keep spending money and my bank account keeps getting bigger. I'll be a millionare if these keeps up." First you just stare in amazement and then try to figure out if you should tell him about his mistake or just let him go. The problem with the TBTF is they actually can keep on spending and make more money than ever before. Hey if metrics of more people walking into stores on Black Friday can send Amazon up $10 in one day, wy can't giving banks face value for more worthless securities increase GDP by 5%. Numbers have no meaning. If I was an analyst I could just say Autozone should be a $1800 stock becuase people drive cars and nobody would call me crazy in the mainstream press. CNBC would then come out with a buy recomendation on Autozone.
Awesome points.
It just goes to show that the entire world financial system has been paper trading ever since the gold window closed over 40 years ago, LOL!!!
Shhhhhh.... don't tell anybody though......nobody likes being late to a Ponzi.
What the HECK just happened to Treasuries.....ripping higher, in price!?
They haven't figured out how to bail out countries, without increasing the debt load. Could it be that the banks are conquering nations with a stroke of a pen?
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/