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Empire Fed Manufacturing Misses Expectations; Hopium Ends As Future Conditions Index Lowest Since February 2009
The green shoots are almost here. But not quite. Those expecting a solid rebound in the October print of the Empire State Fed's General Business Conditions index, which consensus had at rising to -4 from -8.8 before, were disappointed after the number printed at -8.48. "The general business conditions index was negative for a fifth consecutive month, and at -8.5, adhered closely to the level it had held since June. Seventeen percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 26 percent reported that conditions had worsened." There was some good news, primarily in the New Orders series: "After a series of negative readings from June through September, the new orders index rose to 0.2 in October—an indication that orders were unchanged after declining for a number of months. The shipments index advanced eighteen points, rising above zero to 5.3 and signaling an increase in shipments. The unfilled orders index inched upward, but remained below zero at -4.5. The delivery time index was unchanged at -1.1. The inventories index also remained below zero and, at -9.0, indicated a modest decline in inventory levels." As for the future, it's not so bright and nobody ain't wearing shades: "Future indexes generally indicated an expectation that conditions would improve in the months ahead, but the level of optimism remained relatively low. The future general business conditions index fell six points to 6.7, its lowest level since February of 2009." Hopium = Empty.
And the notable Hopium outlier
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Has anyone seen The Bernanke? Paging Dr. Bernank...
time to jump up and down yanking on any lever available over at the central banking lab. You... scientist you :0
DND: Shhhh, BB is busy flattening his lab assistant's inverse yield curves.
Dr. Bernanke is in the OR trying to reinflate a patient's collapsed lung while trying to keep the other lung from deflating. THIS Dr. advises Dr. Bernanke that the patient is suffering from an acute blockage of the airway caused by the bullshit he has been force feeding him.
/sarc
It's all good because a) Chicago will go up to a 70 reading, even while all the other Fed indexes are dropping, and 2) even though it was well below expectations, it was up over last month so that's how the media will report it.
Hopium is getting affordable. Almost as cheap as Colts tickets.
Colts tickets will rebound once we get a miraculous Peyton Manning comeback
Deflationary Death Spiral Downward....which is what I feared.
Till Banana Ben and Drama Draghi turn on the presses.
Cheaper PMs in the interim, I hope, if that doesnt happen be VERY afraid cos the fiat for PMs window just closed.
The presses are already on, the money has been printed and we wait for inflation. Trillions in bailouts went to the banks where it is sequestered.
If I give you money and you do not spend it, will inflation show up in the system? There might be some expectation of inflation. The interesting thing is that for the first guy, no inflation. Second guy, some until.. X+1 guy x $ = fully baked in inflation amount as the money gains speed of circulation. With the Federal reserve system, not only are you gaming interest, your are also gaming inflation as your money is always at the front of the line.
So, when is the best time to buy and reinflate and go to hyper inflation? After a deflationary spiral.
Agreed.
But the inflation this time will be "speculator" driven as those with access to the slosh are the financials and whales, since they will eventually look to deploy it for return, with everything overpriced they will look to inelastic demand, ie food and energy and PMs.
AKA your gaming inflation example.
Unlike Weimar we aint gonna have wheelbarrows cos i dont think the pols are dumb enough to tack a few zeros behind SS/UE checks, but crude/brent at 100+ means fun times for all.
I concur, we will have inflationary and deflationary cycles, but cos of the speed of information and execution today, volatility is going to be a bitch.
But the trajectory is clearly UP.
Yep Palau, cant have inflation when everyone is broke!
But they all told me on tv this rally has legs and to buy. Everything is fine.
Don't worry, S&P should be up to 1,300 by the time Chelsea Clinton becomes president.
Very good and probably very true. Of course all her classmates will be slaves.
Blaim it on fucking PEF and their bullshit votes
pumpers will be fighting volume today?
There is plenty of Hopium.
Apple shipped FOUR MILLION iphone 4s's this weekend. Ergo:GREEN SHOOTS.
I'm long slave labor in China...
hey guys please, let's keep things in perspective here...it ain't no more than an industrial output index kinda thingy pointing to bleak recession, deflation caused by deleveraging, deflagration of asset bubbles, etc...certainly not worth a G20 press release in the hopium exchange
ES down almost a full handle now!!
Excellent, glad I front ran the VIX going into the weekend. Getting harder to time these ocillations, but still doable.
hearing Geithner downgraded to Sell
How can you sell something that's already been bought & paid for by someone else?
Isn't that like naked shorting or sumpthin'?
Yeah the Tank is just about empty. 4th Qtr GDP will just barely be positive but everyone will know it will get revised to sub zero a few months down the line.
With hundreds of thousands falling off the doll now until Christmas and 1.6 Million losing benefits in the month of January alone and it will be obvious the back half of this CAT 5 storm is upon us.
By March it will be impossible not to acknowledge the depression. And this is assuming Europe does not implode first!
But hey David Kotek was just saying these are classic signs of a market bottom and he is buying. So I got that going for me!
Tyler, you are obviously a bond trader (Maybe you even worked for Goldman at one time?) and you seem to see the carnage and issues facing America and the world, so why don't so many other analysts see it? I mean you must work with a lot of brokers, dealers do they all know the shit is gonna hit the fan and just trying to dump their crap on the masses? Or, are most of them really like Jim Oneil / Cramer types that always think a bull market is right around the corner?
If so there people are truly psychotic!
Arch, perhaps other see the issues, but recognize that it does not pay to point this out publicly. Or does it, Tyler?
Personally, I divert 3% of the yeild from all profitable trades to ZH. Seems fair, this is sort of a benchmark percentage for most salemen who depend on commssion. At least it was back in the day.
The big dog bond daddies get it... They know what is going on and what is likely to happen... The mid tier and below, are fucking clueless. Further, from an institutional level, large regional banks/semi-national banks/and smaller national banks are fucking clueless. Obviously there are exceptions with every rule, but still...
They do not think far enough ahead to the "dump the shit on the masses." Sell everything you can while you can and move on to something else when it collapses...
Real estate agents during the bubble weren't worried about offloading shit on unsuspecting customers... that's not really the point... it's more of a gold rush mentality... there isn't anything else they could be doing that would make them any more fame, fortune, or power. Balls to the wall.
They'll trickle off until only the bond daddies that have access to TBTF get to play real estate agents... but, in the meantime, game on.
Bullish for bullshit.
Hopium. America's top growth industry. Rumor production is a close second.
PM's joining EUR, AUD, ES on this morning's beat down.
Maniacal buying of U.S. Treasuries and USDX has started again.
I see no reason to add at this price, with this price action, and with the general market acting like this. More likely PMs tank when Europe runs out of road.
no shit robo. the song reamains the same, stay ahead of the herd. Buy low sell high.
Omfg aapl is turning red
Now that was funny! I heard they got downgraded to.....hold? You dont't hold Apple! You Buy, buy, buy!
Everyone out of Hopium?? Oh well, it was a fun party while it lasted now back on those oars slaves and ROW!!
You row.
I am going to sit at the stern and beat the drum.
Ya see my daddy taught me early on that there are two types of people in this world. Rowers and drummers.
Always strive to be a drummer, my son.
Yea....well Im the guy with the WHIP!
http://www.infowars.com/big-banks-refuse-to-let-people-close-accounts/
OT, but this is too good to not share.
http://pajamasmedia.com/eddriscoll/2011/10/13/never-has-a-man-a-moment-and-a-movement-come-together-like-this/
"Nothing is over until we decide it is, was it over when the germans bombed pearl harbor..."
So we nuked Berlin instead of Hiroshima?
Obviously too young to understand the reference or comedy. Someone help this sheep out. But so long as you brought it up, have you seen pictures of Berlin post WWII? The end result was the same, only Berlin was way more growth positive as it took many more conventional bombs to accomplish the same thing. Nukes are way too damn efficient.
and it was the japs who fired up the ovens?
The Japanese, like many asian cultures, were vicious. For example, it is well documented that they used many of their chinese prisoners as dummys for bayonet practice. Be more than happy to post pictures from my Grandfather's journals this evening. Pretty gruesome, but he fought in the Pacific theater during WWII and documented much of what he called his "journey towards citizenship". He was a refugee from Italy.
Nanking.
Manchuria.
Thanks. The asians were simply more efficient, as they tend to be at everything else.
Another listless day . . . I am waiting for AAPL earnings tomorrow. They have absolutely blown earnings out of the water the past what, 6-8 quarters? And look at all the buying the past 2 weeks. Wall Street's fair-haired child.
Reflect upon this tomorrow:
Never, ever, chase aapl earnings.
Agreed never go short before APple "Blows away estimates". After that I am re-introducing my shorts. The Bernanke speaks in Novemeber but the market won't fall enough for them to take any action so other than that I see no catalyst for a huge surge as the current round of shorts have already been blown out.
You Tylers are always distorting the data to get more eyeballs per page to fill your coffers full of filthy lucre.
-8.48 is much better than -8.8.
Hopium lives to fight another day.
"Hopium" is not to be confused with "Zimbabwe-ism" which is a greater reason to jettison CASH (fiat) in favour of STOCKS. The "hopium" to which you allude is actually "Dopium". Economy-bulls are buying equities for the wrong dopey reasons. With the global printing presses in full BLAST FURNACE mode, it will simply take far more FRN's to buy one share of AAPL after the insidious rot renders purchasing power of fiat moot. NEVER underestimate the replacement power of stocks within a Wiemar-induced debasement. And yes - gold is top of the list along with silver.
BTFD !!!!! Fade this rally in cash.
http://articles.philly.com/2011-10-16/business/30286386_1_td-bank-m-t-business-borrowers
This article talks about the opinion of 1,200 business people that biz for businesses (at least those not numbering among the global elite corps that dominate the S&P) will be sluggish for years. "Waiting for recovery."
I pointed this out last night. As usual, the talking heads are excited about industrial production increasing 0.2% and calling it a clear sign of growth. But Empire State and other indices like EMPLOYMENT are sending another signal -- bad.
Look at the chart of durable and non-durable employment. They are BOTH negative.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
the empire did not strike back, BiCheZ!
the empire is BK and is applying for food stamps, HUD, and a small pension from Pimpco, which is running a seasonal Pumpkin Patch in an attempt to turn red ink to orange
i saw some little pre-scholl kids picking out their pumpkins yesterday in front of Kmart
SP500 daily chart now gives bearish signal, warning of a new leg down. Weekly chart reverts to neutral.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com