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Endgame Begins - UK "Foreign Office Sources Say Merkel Now Thinks Greece Will Default"
Courtesy of the BBC's Andrew Neil, on the back of the previously noted formal annexation demand of Greece by Germany:
Of course, this is what we, and everyone else whose frontal lobe has not bee hijacked by the status quo, said back in January 2010...
JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley better pray they are right when they say they are 100% insulated from contagion, because we are all about to find out.
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I'm NOT a financial expert like a lot of folks on this site, but for the last couple of years it has been one disaster after the next. The system keeps humming along. It seems the "Power Boys" have an answer for everything. So we have a default. I'm sure some small fry's will get eaten, but we'll just keep on-a-truckin. People scream "The System is Going Down". Will it ever? I do know the common man is getting hit from all angles. I've been kicked enough, but go ahead...I think there is a small spot behind my left knee that is still unscathed. Once that is black/blue, I'm going to get up and hit back.
Hey Sphincter, vote for Ron Paul. He will heal your wounds,
Ron Paul is a carrot on a stick about 2 feet from your nose. You will never eat that carrot. TPTB would never allow someone like Dr. Paul, who WOULD correct the system, to come into power. The last man who tried had his brains blown back on to a trunk from a bullet that came from over his right shoulder. We have a piss-ant traitor in office now, with two piss-ants waiting to take his place. We'll get a sell-out fed to us. Not a sweet carrot.
Gold is $1700/oz, silver is $34/oz, oil is $100pb. If the trend continues, how long do you think it will take to break the world you and everyone you know has lived in?
You must be referring to deflation as gold was 1900, silver was 49 and oil was 150.....
Now I'm refering to volatility. How 'bout it?
Your an inflationist jackass and you just got called out.
So now the Foreign Office knows what Merkel is thinking? Sorry, as short as I am, this aint my first rodeo with Euroland rumour.
There's no insurance against a European collapse. Our European bretheren were far in front of us (the GREAT USA, and yes we are fuckin(g) great, greater than you by a long fuckin(g) shot, greater than you by a long fuckin(g) shot (yes I reapeat myself when I'm fuckin(g) right)...you all steal from the producers...the Marshall plan should not have happened if we'd known you'd blow it on crack...couldn't handle the high?...but like a drug dealer we wanted you LOST, LOST forever...the USA (and the funkin(g) commmies) wanted you to leave your churches as museums only...get the fuc(k) back to chruch and love the Lord Jesus Christ your Savior...and have some Christian (Catholic preferably) babies...sure babies are a pain in the butt but they are your future love and YOU WILL WORK FOR THEM if you want a better life for them than you had for yourself;...but of course you would rather live with your stink'n parents and your stink'n grandparents in the same domicile...hey we USA love family but we be independant.
Just a ramblin from a drunken Irishman, but Europe, we sincerely pary for you. Pay your debts, suck it up, be a man.
Give me liberty or give me death.
You are not a drunken Irishman. You are a sober and stupid Chinese person. Identity crisis....
I get that quite often...I am North Korean...though me mommy be Chinese…both my parents converted to Catholicism after they'd fled to the south post the Korean War back in the late 50s…they'd met an Irishman who sold them on the pending evils of Europe post WWII and my parents lived the thought of the thought of the USA...they all came to the USA in the early 80's (long time a waitin) when I was a wee-one and I grew up with the impression that the free USA was the greatest fun a kid could have, even as an outsider. I will never forget that Irishman (Thomas) who taught me God, drink, family and freedom, and hard work.
Pay your bills.
No, you still don't get it. You are Chinese. And you are stupid. You can go ahead and try to prove me wrong, but we both know I am right...on both counts.
Do yourself a favor. Log off. And as for paying our bills, China...good luck with that.
Anybody got a link to the estimated exposure of US banks?
Here's one but I think there might be a newer ZH one.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-us-banks-are-lying-about-their-european-exposure-or-how-bilateral-netting-ends-bang-not-whi
ty
Ollie says a deal is in the works between Greece and privates, which might be finalized Friday (today) at the earliest, but most likely over the weekend. Angela says what that deal is: default. It seems Angela is well aware there will be bigger fish to fry, and they better save the oil for that, meaning Spain and Italy. Portugal will give up the ghost pretty quickly as nobody will listen to their cries for help anyway. There's only so much room in the leaking lifeboat.
Greece will be thrown some bone provided they default within the euro, as the resulting PIIGS-wide bank runs that would erupt from an external default would be too much to handle right now. Europe will buy time to try to figure out how to let Greece, over the next year or two, quietly walk out the euro door.
What is clear is that nothing is clear. They are winging it every step of the way, with "forward" thinking limited to the next week. The LTRO allowed everyone to believe, at least temporarily, that liquidity cures insolvency the way Viagra "cures" impotence. Greece's default may challenge those beliefs, but perhaps default fatigue has set in and the rally can continue. There are no bearings anymore, since these are uncharted waters.
Ok, so what you are saying is, Europe is fucked.
I'm not sure if Europe is f'd, at least I'm not sure the markets will believe it is (and what I think doesn't matter until it does). They tried to solve Greece by making very un-Greek-like demands on Greece, and it seems they realized nothing is going to cure evolution. They'll (finally) let Greece go where it was always going to go anyway and let the chips fall where they may. They will provide liquidity to Eurobanks to paper over the insolvency, relax BIS capital level implementation, ignore Portugal, and regroup to try to plan for Spain and Italy. US banks will have to go to Bernanke for medical attention. That buys time, which is the best they can do, and it may well mean we'll all spend another six months watching paint dry (which qualifies as abstinence as opposed to getting f'd).
Given what information is out there, the market can probably go on rallying and the euro rising. I'm not saying that is right, but unless something new pops up, most everybody will be happy Greece is finished. Heck, even Italian 10-years are back below 6%. LTRO liquidity is helping to broaden the definition of "prudent" risk to mean that it is safe to buy ten year paper of someone who is going to default within three years.
So with all the back and forth headlines, default, saved, default, saved, when the default actually happens, we're already conditioned to pretty much expect it, so no one is truly surprised. Does this mitigate the market response? Or will there still be a freak out because everyone just expected TPTB to either save the day or keep kicking the can? I have no idea how this plays out, but it should be interesting.
Mitigates.
Standard nervous response. Inescapable biology. If machines are immune, they can't overcorrect any vestigal human impact.
Greece's default may challenge those beliefs, but perhaps default fatigue has set in and the rally can continue.
The DJIA is up a hundred points today on news that the Greek default will be structured and orderly. (If only I had a nickel for all the "less bad" rallies)
I guess I can buy the Idiot part of your moniker, lol
US banks are a lot better capitalized than European banks but when the CDS get triggered who knows wtf will happen.
Unless of course they find another way to say ,"this isnt a credit event."
This has all become such a bore. Can we get on with the sovereign defaults please?
U.S. banks are about as financially healthy as The Federal Reserve's balance sheet, chock full of long term treasuries and assets such as The Red Roof Inn.
Eliminate all mention of Greece in media and just like Ron Paul - problem solved.
the tourniquet tightens
.
Default is the only option. The reason for the delays and lip service but no follow-through has been all along that Greece's only option would be to default and leave EMU.
Greece leaving is neither the end of the EMU, nor the end of the world as we know it. Italy and Spain will stay and get help as they should. Portugal might be going down the tubes as well. Collectively the rest of Europe is strong enough to allow for the default of a nation as irrelevant as Greece.
The sooner it finally happens, the better for Greece and the Greeks. Europeans (and Americans) are weary and tired of the Greek drama. It was confusing to say the least. Come March, we shall finally get the bitter ending and the curtains will close.
This is bullish for the Euro.
You have been watching far too much BlowHorn [CNBC] programming.
It's bullish for the Euro if Greece is booted.
It's bearish for the Euro if Germany leaves.
The problem isn't Greece per se. Its CDS and the ECB. If the Greeks force their creditors to take losses and the ECB doesn't, other peripheral bond markets will implode - other bondholders will effectively be subordinated to the European Central Bank. They won't like that.
And if the ECB takes losses, the member European Central Banks will effectively pay for it, thereby socializing the losses on the taxpayers of other EU nations. That will cost many elected officials their jobs so they will fight this outcome.
On the CDS front, the CDS has to get triggered when the Greeks finally default. No more of these non-credit event defaults will work or the CDS market will tank and peripheral debt will follow suit because there be no way to safely trade it (note I didn't use the term "hedge" - we all know CDS is nothing but a trading vehicle after AIG etc).
In any event, this won't end in tears for the EU. The Germans will blink and Eurobonds will be used to refinance every bit of debt from the continent. Central bankers and policy makers only know one thing (see the FOMC this week): print! print! print!
When that happens, however, don't own US treasuries. Talk about a pain trade...
I just wonder who are the biggest players in selling CD's? If American banks then it would be funny, don't you think?
I keep finding myself wondering why anyone would ever pay at this point...
I read (maybe here) that Euro area banks have been big sellers of CDS on *their own* sovereigns. Premium income & they won't be around to pick up the tab if their sovereigns default.
But who in their right mind would buy these CDS? :s
(But would we be surprised if the TBTF US banks were big sellers too..? Yet another reason to keep that Fed-ECB swap line humming.)
It's all coming unraveled:
China’s very mysterious data
By Ambrose Evans-PritchardHYPERLINK "http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/category/economics/"EconomicsLast updated: January 26th, 2012
A quick observation.
I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.
The Shanghai Container Freight Index fell 1.4pc to a record low of 919.44 in November, after sliding relentlessly for several months. It has picked up slightly since.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100014380/ch...
According to Plan!
Russia is a scary commodity country that threatens its neighbours and China is an industrial might that has long term plans to eat amerikas lunch.
you could argue that its amerika who has eaten everybody else's lunch as if it were its own and has no intention of giving up on this trend.
Hows Iceland doing?
Hows Iceland doing?
This headline should read, UK "Foreign Office Sources Say Merkel bumped her head and suddenly grasped the obvious".
LMFAO!!!
Jamie Dimon sure thinks it will be of zero relevance, just like he said housing wasn't going to go bust.
And truthfully......who's to say they can't hold this POS up even if Greece does default and it could appear as if Greece really didn't make a difference. In the end it will, as the culmination of the elite pricks and cunts mistakes and misguided planning all backfire and shit rains from the heavens by the bucketfulls.
BTW I am so drunk now it's now funny. Well then again maybe it is. Ha ha ha!
An old joke many of you have seen, however if you havnt recite this outloud to whoever is present with you. Or copy it and read it outloud to someone. DO NOT let them see the words while you're reading it or their brain will be as yours and they won't get it.
I am.
I am Sofa.
I am Sofa King.
We Todd Did.
Yes, that's, ah, very... something. Have another drink and I'll strike a match and maybe in some alternate universe, someone over the age of 14 will think that's a good joke.
It looks to me the purpose of this recent EUR rally was forming enough space for EUR to drop next week.
So I guess next week we might see 1.26 again : )
Well gun4A one would think that, right? Wrong - I (and I think alot of people/traders) got burned trying to short EUR on Friday but got fucked by the ridiculous 100+ pip rally that was obviously manipulated by SuperMario @ ECB .
I am so tempted to re enter the short EUR/USD trade at 1.32 but I am just very very wary now about those clusterfuck politician bastards who can and will manipulate markets to screw everyone.
Rant over.........aaaaaaaand relax,
See, this continues. "What happens when Greece defaults" is getting analyzed and discussed in the context of swap triggers and contagion blah blah.
But folks, that's not where the good TV will be.
The good TV will be from inside Greece, who very suddenly have to figure out how to survive when they can't pay for the oil that transports food to their cities.
Kill it! Kill it! Hit it with a shovel. Quick, it's crawlin under the shed!
Gee. Someone in Germany thinks Greece may default? I don't see a problem. Someone will just give them a loan.
Bank failure friday up-date
4 banks @ a cost to the taxpayer, wait for it...... $ 600 million dollars, poof, and it's gone.
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
As a thief in the night - Suddenly and unexpectedly, as a robber breaks into a dwelling. A thief comes without giving any warning, or any indications of his approach. He not only gives none, but he is careful that none shall be given. It is a point with him that, if possible, the man whose house he is about to rob shall have no means of ascertaining his approach until he comes suddenly upon him.
The market soon will have allowed all are houses to be robbed by these barons.
No it will not play out in days but run a course of 3-9 months. The titanic approaches the final breach.
who the hell is andrew neil? id rather trust the oracle of delphi than to listen to tweets concerning hearsay of hearsay of "sources".
According to the world's most accurate encyclopedia...
Andrew Ferguson Neil (born 21 May 1949) is a Scottish journalist and broadcaster.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Neil
Who is Voodoo-economist? Someone who's given us such nuggets as:
good post
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morning-gold-fix-september-2#comment-559709
sox 404
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/lehman-had-absolutely-no-idea%E2%80%9D-how-big-its-derivative-book-was-days-following-bankruptcy#comment-553331
robo fail?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-here-where-post-fomc-vol-goes#comment-907024
ouch ouch ouch, the best trades are always the missed ones .
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-stolpers-clients-again-eurusd-breaches-13500-squid-stopped-out-friday-eurusd-trade-reco
...decision: Andrew Neil > Voodoo-economist
vinegar,
Neil understands Britain and Europe. His opinion is worth minding.
Trade as you wish. Politics is trifling.
Agreed.
nation of shopkeepers...will Brittain ever be european?
Its a good definition of what divides the lands of Kant, Voltaire and Lex romana, from that of the Windsors; where the one square mile of City is more precious than Gotham City to Superman! The channel has been tunneled but the mentality gap is another thing.
Having said that, London is not Brittain and the British people will suffer; whatever may be the fate of the uber citizens of cosmopolitan metropolis Town WITH gown. Elsewhere, town and gown have never mixed since centuries. It is and will stay more and more in tatters, the clothes that red brick town wears!
Andrew Neil is a rare thing: a trustworthy journalist.
Andrew Neil is my favourite British journalist, and I lived in England for decades and despised most media.
Good. The first domino.
Andrew Neil understands Britain and Europe. He is an ace journalist. I trust his comment.
And there are some who say, in Europe and elsewhere, we can work with the Greeks.
A very prescient nom de plume Sir.
I congratulate your foresightedness regarding lexical trends.
Greek defult is priced in and however you wanna spin this bad news is good news
Super Mario was smokinn last night and accidentally hit CTRL-P multiple times
So buy buy buy bitchezz.
Money starts to run out in Spain. Spanair, owned by Catalonia area public institutions, went belly up after funding was cut off. Not a huge deal, but anyway dominoes are falling here, too, since Scandinavian airliner SAS announced profit warning b/c of Spanair. They owned about 11%, had written it down previously, but now they had to write down about 190m EUR of receivables from Spanair. So, in total this is a 1.5 - 2bn EUR black hole for Catalonia.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/spanair-stops-flying-after-qat...
I'm going to repost this post to a another blog, then it'll be a rumour of a rumour of a rumour started by an exFleet Street hack, of old non-news to boot.
I heard from a guy that someone was going to do just that.
Greek default will be like the first day of the first Gulf war. I was cold calling around the time the bombing started, and one prospect said something along the lines of, "I can't be bothered with investing now ... A war is starting," to which I told him "now is precisely the time to be planning your investments. Iraq is nothing in the great scheme of things." markets exploded upward the next day from the lows where they had hit in the months of global fretting about what war with Iraq might mean.
Greek default will bring temporary relief ... Sad that all the other hidden but very real problems, like UK debt to GDP of 1000%, will cut that rally short.
BBC's Andrew Neil will say whatever his handlers tell him to say. He's nothing but a very unprincipled yellow journalist - like most of the BBC journos.
Greece should and hopefully will default, but don't expect to get anything but dis-info from the BBC. Just more noise.
www.greedion.com
No shit Sherlock.
New Jersey votes to outlaw guns Jan 30. Get the word out:
http://njgunforums.com/forum/index.php?/topic/31510-nj-assembly-committe...
I live where you can walk around with a loaded gun on your hip. As long as you don't conceal it from plain view it's legal. Gun and ammo bans don't work - have never worked. On paper they make sense - in practice they are pointless.
When do felons care about bans?
4th turnings are slow moving buggars!
ZH, here's a friendly advice: if you want to be informative about Europe, do more than following whatever comes out of the UK. UK is now isolated within the EU.
Granted, they provide more content that some like to hear, or bring more LOLS, but that's hardly informative
Those of us who don't know much about him here's some CP from Wiki on Andrew Neil.
A little more informative than our british friends I like him/ don't like him comments.
"He currently works for the BBC, presenting the live political programmes The Daily Politics and This Week. For the BBC he also anchors Straight Talk with Andrew Neil and makes documentaries.
He is also Chairman of Spectator Magazines; Chairman of ITP Magazines (Dubai); and Chairman of World Media Rights (London)."