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Epic EUR Short Squeeze Sends Risk Soaring, Gold Over 1600

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The squeeze is on. EURUSD is probably the most extreme example of the squeeze-factor potential of what is at its heart a lot more talk and lot less action. Up almost 250 pips from its pre-summit-statement levels, EURUSD is just under 1.2700 - which in context is only back to 6/21 levels. As we noted on June 3, the epic level of CFTC non-commercial EUR spec shorts were ripe for a squeeze-fest, while on the other hand we specifically said "the pain trade will be any appeasing announcement from Europe." Sure enough we got just that (supposedly) and EURUSD is now up well over 300 pips from those levels as the clear pain trade plays out. The USD weakness has driven commodities higher with Gold reaching $1600 once again (6/21 levels). European sovereigns are (somewhat expectedly given the euphoria - though just how much has actually changed is unclear) also rallying hard on the day but while they have compressed spreads markedly, they have stalled at unchanged on the week (though Portugal remains notably wide on the week). Credit and equity markets in Europe are in sync and have snapped higher to 6/21 levels also (with financials outperforming modestly). Europe's equity markets are all soaring - up 3 to 4.5% - as DAX is now outperforming the S&P 500 on the year once again. Big moves (multiple sigma in bond and FX markets) and yet we can't help but think they were hoping for more than just a retracement of one week's price action.

EURUSD's impressive squeeze strength has torn the USD back to unchanged from 6/21...

Commodities surging on USD weakness, with Gold touching $1600 (at 6/21 levels)...

 

but while sovereigns are clearly improving; on the week they remain wider (with Portugal notably so)...

and European credit and equity markets are in sync but only at one-week highs...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:22 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

King !

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Empress Gold!

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Queen Silver!

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Fuck Rumpoy!

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

hello roller coaster. The FX kings have to shit in their short pants if they felt Merkel Nein was their sweet wine! 

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Where's Max Fischer?

Hey Max ~ Wanna "change the subject to SILVER" again today?

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

It looks like you did it for him. And I thank you. Silver is the achilles heel of this dog and pony show. It can topple the Morgue singlehandedly, it can replace fiat currency in hand, and it is what they fear most which is why it is the most volatile. They want people to fear it, but they can't stop what's coming. Keep stacking.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Care to explain exactly how it is the Achilles heel of the financial system, with the power to issue currency?

Morgue is just one bank, which can be bailed out with hyper inflation as possible side effect. There are many others.

The losses on their shorts can be covered, if they know what they are doing.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

I hate to say it, but you are correct.  When they have access to "liquidity" they can outlast you.

If 2008 taught us any lesson, it was that the FED can provide ($26 trillion) liquidity for their friends and owners.

Still not a bad idea to keep wealth outside the USD, but it will not bring down the Morgue.

pods

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Dont hate it, just accept it :)

I am all for converting fiat to PMs, short of buying some other asset you want at a good price, but this mania and religious zeal like belief in PMs is what I am against.

And the "pumpers" no different from Buffet selling his book, just with different set of interest and investment prioirties.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It is really not the same at all.  There has been no asset class more publicly denounced by sell siders than PMs.  There has been no asset class that has done so well for so long that wasn't constantly promoted as having a chance to double, triple, quadruple, like the DOW, except for the PMs.  When the PMs were rising and outperforming everything the "analysts" on the financial "news" channels were silent yet when it drops a fraction it's dumped on. The same "analysts" who pumped stocks before every crash and didn't see the bubble also pumped RE and didn't see the bubble claim that PMs are in a bubble.

 

It is clear, for whatever reason, that there is a joint effort to sell a story line that avoids the truth about the overall secular trend as well as the performance and promise of PMs especially silver which is the metal with the most industrial interest and growing necessity to meet investor and industrial demand on a shrinking supply.

 

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

... When the PMs were rising and outperforming everything the "analysts" on the financial "news" channels were silent yet when it drops a fraction it's dumped on...

If thats your investment thesis, being contrarian to MSM, than good luck.

However, if MSM is manipulating, and its all smokes and mirrors, than why cant it be the same for their approach to PM investing?

Could it not be that, under ZIRP and now NIRP policies and on the other hand CBs also have to print shit loads of Moneez... They are trying to use PMs as monetary policy tool to control and soak up excess liquidity in the markets, in the absence of interest rate manipualation? Just to prevent hyper inflation for a while.

I know this ponzi of financial system will fall apart, someday... but how and when is the question AND how to make the best of it.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

I already told you why it's the achilles heel, try reading more. Silver is a viable alternative to fiat currency. Gold is great for a currency peg, but for hand to hand exchange gold is too large, and silver is king because of liquidity. It is the one thing that can take away their power - if you people are willing to vote with your wallets and buy physical instead of paper chasing like greedy whores. It's not just about taking down the Morgue, it's about taking power away from the Fed and destroying their money printing machine. If people lose faith in fiat, they are done.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

I already told you why it's the achilles heel, try reading more.

No you have'nt or atleast not that I've read it. So now, in very few lines, tell me how are we going to use Silver to bring down the Financial system? I might join you guys, and bring my tribe with me too.

Gold is too large? Swiss are thinking about issuing 5 CHF coins with a 1/10th of a gram of Gold in it. Thats much smaller than a silver oz coin. How about that?

You use fiat paper to buy Silver right? Do you (and your comrades) have more fiat than Morgue or any bank or financal institution? If its really that vital for their survival, they'll buy all available silver overnight!

World has used sea shells, lotus flowers and pieces of leather as means of exchange i.e. currency.

Check this video, Greeks are using TEM's for trading not Silver! *Shock* Horror*

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17680904

Now, explain to me how do you intend to bring down the financial system, without repeating the lines of that hypnotic eyed, mesmerising kind of voiced chap, who keeps banging on about silver in his videos and thinks creation of America was some divine occurence.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:45 | Link to Comment Right-on Left-off
Right-on Left-off's picture

Well Gentlemen,

There you have it.  Your classic Planet wide Bear Trap.

If you were a buyer yesterday or just had to grin and bear if you were long ...  Today you are laughing all the way to the bank and on the last day of the month and last day of the 2nd Qtr.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Sadly I sold my rare bull position yesterday after the Supremes failed to do their duty. Between the Bernanke put and the short squeeze I figured there was huge up potential but decided to be sure I could live to play another day. I think the second push of this ramp will break last spring's highs by a bit. Somewhere about S&P 1460 will be a cheap place to short their delusions once again. The bears will win this game, just make sure they don't put you on the disabled list before the end of the game.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Been buying commodities for the last two weeks, now selling.  You do realize that you only "go to the bank" after you sell right?  End of quarter ramps have become sooo predictable.  Wish it would last forever, but it probably won't.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Come on Gene, you were heavily short gold just yesterday. Are you like Robo now and never have a losing trade?

LOL...no doubt

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Right-on Left-off
Right-on Left-off's picture

One thang I never do is call a one day reversal a change in trend.  Sometimes it may be two days and then sometimes three days before I switch positions but never never never with a one day reversal.

It's a form of being grown-up and taking it like a man.  And then like today ... Ya never No.  This has happened many times in the past and will happen many times in the future.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

A trend? Indeed. You mean like a 12 year trend UP? 

Gene was/is calling for gold to 1400.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:22 | Link to Comment GOLDTEETHSILVER...
GOLDTEETHSILVERFILLINGS's picture

Follow the yellow brick road...

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

The everything is all better relief rally? ha ha

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Lar dar dee dar dum dum WHAT A BUM BUM!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcsp493U8Io

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

squeeze? lol, not for those who were short since april. euro not even at highs 2 weeks ago. squeeze? lol

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Sounds like there's tears in those laughs. See here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/epic-eur-short-squeeze-sends-risk-soaring-...

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

9:35amE sounds like a GREAT time to be putting a new Euro short position on to me ...

 

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Mission Accomplished.

We'll deal with Monday next quarter.

P.S. - Gold and Silver still on sale. Buy buy buy!

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:45 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Puttin' the spit shine on the plebes 401k's.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Paging bob_dabolina, Mr. Dabolina please pick up the white courtesy phone.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I don't know if I would call it a squeeze based on the charts for the year but still a predictable ramp, we have been here before.  wouldn't it be great if this shit-show just keeps going and allows me to keep extracting paper to exchange for physical assets of real value?  

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

If you wait a while, there might be a better bargain.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I think you mis-understand. Just another friday "end of quarter" gift.  I am not buying gold today, but rather watching the commodities I bought cheap all week go higher and I am selling right now.  My point is the shit-show has been sooooo predictable.  I wish it would last forever, but we all know it probably won't.  FYI- All my physical PMs are quite safe.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Thanks for the explaination, makes sense.

May the fleas of thousand Afghan camels infest the crotch of the persons who downticked me and may their arms be too short to scratch. Amen.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

Euro shorts deserve all they get for not bailing already, greedy bastards were still trying to send it to 1.24 yesterday. The amount of selling around that area yesterday was just absurd, it was soaked up in fine style though. nom nom nom, fnar fnar.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment sickofthepunx
sickofthepunx's picture

yes.  buy PMs!

everyone on this blog needs you!

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

If these bloggers had any sense, they would be shorting when the CBs are and then buying a lot cheaper.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment FranSix
FranSix's picture

Considering that the manipulation of LIBOR is now turning into another financial scandal, gold should be popping.  You would normally expect gold prices to rally on options expiry, but we are seeing that on the close of the quarter.

Gold lease rates are a function of LIBOR, probably along with so many other asset classes.  But dealing with interest rates as if they were a price level is fraudulent to say the least, because if you were allowed to trade interest rates as if they were a price, you could ostensibly sway the whole market.

Gold lease rates have flatlined for months, while sell-offs in gold prices came surreptitiously.  Lease rates should have climed during sell-off days.  The buy-back at the end of the quarter suggests a quarterly settlement, which is on treasuries, which means interest rate derivatives.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/minister-slams-banking-s-anything-goes-culture-rLLd73ODQOCRkSsep1V7KA.html

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:29 | Link to Comment riley martini
riley martini's picture

Debt transfers the answer to all Europe ills , so simple a cave man could do it .  It was a hard fought battle and in the end we transfered some bad debt to the sheep.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Think of all those sleepless nights for the CBs trying to decide what to do with all that debt.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

SEND MONEY TO ROMNEY.  

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

Game over for him. Obama/Soros just saved the world. 

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:43 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Zbig, you mean. Common mistake don't stress it.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You forgot your < sarc > flags.  

You may freely choose to eat your broccoli, however, should you not choose to eat your broccoli you will pay a tax or go to jail.  What's that?  You can not afford broccoli because you are busy providing for your family?  Too fucking bad - "WINNING"

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

I'm just stating the facts of the hour. I'm also a contrary indicator.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Fair enough, how much longer will things remain so predictable, it is great isn't it?

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

Sigh. As always i'm hoping for someone to call the bluff on the new world currency...

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Screw Romney - He's also a Bankster - Send money to Ron Paul!!!

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:34 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

I'm sure there is a demand based fundamental for oil to trade up 5.5% at 9:30AM.

I bet if I take a look at thegas station down the street it won't be $3.39 anymore. Probably back up to $3.79 now. I hate trying to figure out if I should buy gas based on what might happen in the market the next day.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:35 | Link to Comment cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

They are all breaking laws every day, Barclay's, GS, RBS and more and getting away with it.

Yet we cannot break laws to increase our financial "wealth"

It makes one wonder why he shouldn't start making hooch, smuggle or grow weed to make some coin.

I have lost respect for governments of all stripes and types and the Supreme Court seems to have lost the bill of rights and constitution.

Ten years from now, they will be asking themselves why a war between rich and poor started.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:38 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Actually, it never ended. The poor were just baited into being "hard workers" while the world expanded on new effecient source of energy, working their asses off on Corporate plantations, feeling getting wealthy.

Now thats its done with, the Rich will take back what they gave to the poor to start with.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

"STILL SHAKEN HEA' BOSS" Classic line from the movie "Cool Hand Luke" with Paul Newman. Perfect storyline for most of us today... "Daddy, when I grow up I wanna pencil cup with lots of pencils to sell, just like you".

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Weed prices are down, not worth it unless you live in a state with liberal pot laws.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Trimbeaux
Trimbeaux's picture

Because we are the herd (profane) that does not use our intellegence, we are their legal and lawful prey of the self proclaimed elite (enlightened).

We are the domesticated livestock of the future world order. If we don't awaken we will live on what they ration to us. If we are allowed to live.

It is nothing new under the sun.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:42 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

I wouldn't let the PPT party the last day before the regime change and end of month. Looks like they'll have a little work today to keep things rosey.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

If it's really dollar weakness that causes gold to go up, then how did gold go from around $400 per ounce to around $1600 per ounce while the dollar was bouncing around in the same low 70's to low 80's range on the USDX?

Please!  The USDX means nothing.  It compares one fiat piece of trash to others. 

 

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

ahhh see, you're playing for the tournament, while this is hand for hand play.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Can everyone please pull up a one year SPY chart and look at the end of June 2011.  This is simply wall street maximizing quarter end profit for themselves.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Exactly, we are stuck in the groundhog day seventh circle of hell.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

And don't forget there will be almost no living decision makers at work next week.  a perfect time for the Algo's and HAL9000's to run the market in which ever direction they please.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

SEVENTH!!!  I thought we were a lot further in.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment One World Mafia
One World Mafia's picture

Leaders of the 17 countries that use the euro agreed they will let funds intended to bail out indebted governments funnel money directly to struggling banks as well. They said the move will "break the vicious circle" of bank bailouts piling debt onto already stressed governments.

http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2012/06/29/troubled-europe-sum...

The title hails it as a "bold" move. Propaganda in your face.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

RIM is toast, Blackberry10 won't hit until 2013, so they won't last that long. RIM, the Palm of 2012.

Nike's channel stuffing has come back to bite them in the ass.

Ford's Euro channel stuffing has come back to bite them in the ass.

GM's subprime US channel stuffing will come back to bite them in the ass.

ANNNDDD, Apple's senior hardware executive quit. The rats are jumping ship. Seems they can't figure out anything more than shoving more pixels into a device that doesn't need it.

Doesn't sound so bullish to me.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks like that action junkie who shorted $100k worth of Euros last night got blowtorched already.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

Action junkie? Wrong noun, try spastic.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

I wonder why yours says 3 years 6 hours and mine is stuck on 2 years 52 weeks.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I'm confident anyone that can short big-boy blocks can ride a negative carry as well as Burry.

You might even keep an eye-peeled for the usual self-dealing (OMG...that short turned out to be prescient!...who coulda node?).

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

It is only a matter of time till some truth speaking soul will be targeted by a drone or CIA spook or by another law enforcement agency and vanish as speaking the truth will mark a person as an "suspected insurgent".  When that day comes, he or she will become a martyr to others who value truth, honesty and integrity to what is happening in the world today.

It's fucking scary isn't it?

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It usually takes multiple martyrs to grease the wheels of change. They get frozen solid when not used regularly.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment mark7
mark7's picture

Thank you, Americans for your participation at the annual "Euro Shorters"-party. You sucke...I mean our valued customers are welcome to come again next year!

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Well, it managed to make a noise from under the mass of tubes and machines keeping it sedated.

Heh.

I continue to purchase a few coins. This shit is so cheap against what is coming...

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

1961 Twilight Zone episode "It's a Good Life".

Little boy Anthony can make anything happen just by wishing it.

Anyone seen it?

Jump forward 50 years, The-Parasites-That-Be seem to have that same power over the "markets".

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment NooooB
NooooB's picture

How come no mention of the Swisss peg? They just bought a shitload of Euros last night to bring the EUR/CHF back to the 1.20 they "swore to defend". Unless i see some volume someplace this is all just a big manipulation...

To quote Krusty the Klown when he was losing money from betting on the George Washington Generals in a Globe Trotter game- "The ref's blind! That guy's using a LADDER for chrissake!"...

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment twocents
twocents's picture

Euro strength can't last. You can't polish a turd and you can't bailout a ponzi scheme. Early next week the euphoria will end.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

yup this time credit snapped up to equity and not vice-versa

anyone who thought the can wouldn't get kicked and the week end on some green?  priceless and clueless too!

i think once readers begin to actually inderstand what the FED, other CBs and the goobers are up to, markets and politics won't be quite so surpriZing all the time any more

my thesis remains that against all odds and in plain sight (dodd/frank) these fuktards have regained control of the wwClusterswannery

the rockies and the roths are pretty tenacious mofos themselves, eh?

and like sarko said as he was illegally dropping weapons and cammandos into the nafusa mountains last year for the staging for the fall of tripoli:  "stahbeeelietaaaay! BiCheZ!"

as i tried to point out at the christmas parties last year while the angels of death were sabre-rattling non-stop over iran and there is page after page about how chine will just kick our asses:  are you shitting me?  these asswipes are lucky they even have jobs at this point.  or heads!  they wanna be the NW0, they better stop the bullshit and start  behaving!

for everybody to just chill for at least 20 years with the fuking map we got right now might be a fab idee ya know!  we got checks to write and bikes to ride...  and children...  and so do 'they'... 

peace

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Disagree Slewie. Prospects for actual growth are as dim as ever, as is unemployment. Things will continue to deteriorate even without "austerity" at a grinding pace while ZIRP / QE'ueeze / CollateralSluttery / Repatriation will keep inputs in stag-flatus.

Is sliding into a pool of starving zombies one toe at a time better than a plunge? Stay tuned!

 

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 11:55 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

look take udn and chart it weekly, if you do this chart you will see that the majority of time the sweeks overlap, you can almost always make a profit on buying a bit below the prior weeks low. if you draw paralell lines they line up last week, this week today being the top line.  also take the three weeks prior to that line up the bases. this is sort of normal from over sold, the descending channel. I don't know what will happen of course I consideted a break below the weekly line starting june 1st to be mean down trend. But at this point you can't way we are in an up trend, jut that this is much more of the place a short should be started along that channel

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