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Equities Plunge Most In A Month As Gold And Treasuries Extend Gains
Volume? Check. Spanish Spreads wider? Check. Maria B Saying "Wall-of-Worry"? Check. Sure enough, all the pieces were there for a sell-off today as the S&P saw its largest drop in a month as volumes have resurged in the last three days (of fading markets) and average trade size has gradually fallen from its peak (at the multi-year highs on Tuesday). Cross-asset-class correlations picked up notably and equities caught down to risk-assets (after yesterday's 'rally'). VIX rose once again - back above 16% - with the biggest 3-day rise in a month. Gold has rallied 1% per day for the last three days (something we haven't seen since OCT11) up near $1675. 10Y Treasury yields have now dropped 5 days in a row (something we haven't seen since APR12), down over 20bps from their highs/200DMA. Oil stumbled on the day, now down 0.3% on the week, even as Silver is up almost 9% on the week (and Gold 3.3%) - even as the USD is down 1.4% on the week (leaking lower still on the day after its gap overnight). Materials underperformed by the most today (which smells like QE-off) and was followed by Energy and Financials. Stocks underperformed (though HYG was modestly bid - we suspect on convergence trades) as stocks caught down to credit once again.
S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) dropped by the most in a month today (on contonued heavy volume - middle pane)...
Gold has risen for 3 days in row - back above its 200DMA...
and Treasury yields have fallen for 5 days in a row...
Can you spot the sell off days (clue - lower pane is difference between volume and its average...)
and average trade size rose into the peak and has fallen back as we sell-off - so often this pattern of professionals (larger block traders) trading into turning points signals a reversal...
and after disconnecting higher yesterday, stocks have reconnected and correlation has reasserted systemically with risk assets...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: Comparing Citi's US Economic Surprise Index with the S&P provides insight but the current market behavior (lower pane - green box) and upper pane (green box) do look increasingly similar - as markets rallied on hope that macro data was improving more than economists' expected (and meanwhile earnings were dropping but that was trumped by the former)... who knows?
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This is a coupling TPTB dread. They gotta keep a bid on treasuries but cannot have gold track that. Fun Fun (at least until the election).
LoP guy, TPTB aren't bidding Treasuries. Terrified Europeans are, and terrifed Japanese are.
And they should, because we are hearing NOTHING about the credit default swap exposure for Spanish banks and sovereigns. We got swap attention on Greece, but where is the talk of Spanish swap triggers?
Driving today to work, I was listening NPR. The topic was the Presidential campaign fund raising by Obama and Romney.
From the discussions, it became clear that the Obama campaign is having major problems raising money since major Zionist donors (including Soros) are very disappointed with Obama timid support for Israel’s reckless warmongering policies and decided to support Romney who promised to get America into a war with Iran. It is important to note that, apparently, the Pentagon’s high brass is not eager to start a major war with Iran.
In a case of Obama is not the ruling financial oligarchy choice, then:
· There will not be any Q3 before the presidential elections
· Zionist financial mafia will organizes a major bad economic news flow before the elections as well as will engineer a sizable financial markets drop
· It will be interesting to see how far Obama will go to stay in the office
gee whiz, this puppet show is soooo interesting.
and i thought i had an overactive imagination!
How aggressively stupid of you. Zionist and Soros in the same sentence? What an idiot!
This looks like a correction is dead ahead. No interest for now.
And this from NYT.
China Besieged by Glut of Unsold Goods
Looks eerily like the Janjuah chart from two months ago:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bob-janjuah-sp-trek-1400-1000-800
I don't see why anyone would invest in anything other than silver. Probably the best value of any asset in history.
$200 per ounce is still John Williams call over at Shadow Stats last interview I heard. Veyr possible as: 1. monetary exapansion ramps up to cover the massive deleveraging so as to avoid more severe depression and 2. as people in places like China 'disintermediate' out of the Bubble House market there and pile into somehting easier to store, carry and buy/sell.
I'm calling $1,000 / oz min. Gold will hit at least $10,000 and the silver / gold ratio will hit at least 10/1. Min. The entire bond market and banking system is on the verge of imploding.
Can you spare me a shot of whatever it is that you're drinking please ?
Sure. Reality is good. There's plenty of it, just open your eyes.
If you think that fiat is not going to basically collapse, then you don't understand debt and interest rates.
If you think gold won't hit at least $10,000 / oz, then you don't understand how much wealth is going to flow out of currency, bonds, and assets propped up by cheap credit.
If you think the gold to silver ratio won't hit at least 10/1, then you don't understand how little silver exists relative to gold (there's about 2 to 4 times more oz of silver than gold)
It's set, silver will hit at least $1,000 / oz.
It's happened before and it will happen again.
Yeah, right. You are the one who does understand?????? LOL. Go and hold your breath if you like until it happens.
Yes, I understand that silver will hit min. $1,000. Use logic, it's not that hard to figure out. I'll walk you through it? Q) Is the dollar and dollar denominated assets on the verge of collapse? A) Yes. Q) When hyperinflation hits, what will be the min. real value of gold? A) Gold will hit at least $10,000 in real terms. Q) How low will the gold/silver ratio shrink? A) The gold/silver ratio will shrink to at least 10/1.
And there you have it. Using logic, you can see that silver will hit min. $1,000 / oz in real terms.
That is some damn strong stuff he is smoking. Better not inhale.
As Clinton or Obama?
GATA's Bill Murphy just stated the move in the metals is due to an imminent manipulation scandal at JP Morgan rivaling LIBORGATE.
GOT PHYZZ???
http://www.silverdoctors.com/bill-murphy-jp-morgan-is-finished-jpm-silve...
everybody knows that JPM is manipulating the price of silver through the options market.
and everybody knows that GATA has been predicting for years that it can't last forever and eventually they're going to have to cover ...
... the WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE and HOW's remain to be addressed ...
Wall of worry, fiscal cliff and facebook could be a cnbc drinking game.
My god, you forgot the biggest of them all: "QE3". Get wasted drinking every time you hear that.
I can drink when I want and not have to throw up listening to the rest of their dribble.
Been teetotal and sober for six years.
If I listened to cnbc or npr I would have to start drinking again.
Good old "Wall of worry". When they go down, it's "uncertainty" of course very different from worry since uncertainty never causes worry. Most ridiculous phrase ever.
From Ritholtz: "Stock market bulls would like to believe raging bearishness is enabling stocks to climb a wall of worry. Unfortunately this just isn’t the case."
Maria B Saying "Wall-of-Worry"? Check
Maria is the "Tokyo Rose" of the war on American investors.
Hey absent RobotTrader, are you starting to feel the heat on your sorry ass yet from that blowtorch?
I think the Tyler {RobotTrader} lives in France and is on holiday this month.
Why did gold go up Mr. Nadler? Was it because of investors taking profit or from lessened demand from Asia? Moron!
No, according to him, it's always the falling US Doelarr that explains a rising gold price.
You would think he might look at other currencies sometime and outside his 6 inch box (worldview). He's a disgrace to Kitco and should have been fired years ago.
There's a chance this might be the reason for todays activity. remember, we're the last to know.
The last time we had a day like this was August 2010 http://wakeup2010.blogspot.com/2010/08/gold-is-up-markets-down.html and a then this, two days later. http://wakeup2010.blogspot.com/2010/08/israel-has-3-days-left-to-attack-irans.htmlIt seems like only yesterday that ZH reveled in breaking $1650.
August 2.
2011
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/its-tradition-its-religionits-barabous-rel...
SPX drops 0.8% and it's a "plunge"......really now, let's be serious. Any suggestions for why the eur/usd held in so well? Haven't seen a made up story yet which fits the price action to that yet.
SPX drops 0.8% and it's a "plunge"......really now, let's be serious. Any suggestions for why the eur/usd held in so well? Haven't seen a made up story yet which fits the price action to that yet.
Think critically; the fed has been mandated to pump SP500, so it rallied hard for last 3 months after almost hitting year open. No way will it crash any time soon.
It broke a monthly trend line and recently wicked above a weekly double-top.
Expect consolidation now above this trend line for next few months to park price and extol the virtues of a strong market under obummer's stewardship - all hail the omnipotent leader.
Now expect dollar to rally to give the proletariats a similar feel-good-factor. Make them feel the pleasure that the dollar in their wallets can actually buy shit.
The stage is then set for a second term and all hell will break loose. Investment entities will unwind their euro positions and the hunt will be on for a safe haven currency; my guess is AUDJPY as gold rallies and yen becomes inflationary.
2013 will be fun.
Markets fell while US Dollar keeps falling - stocks denominated in US Dollars - wouldn't you expect them to go up?
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/usd-index-daily-august-22-2012/
What's driving the US Dollar down? Primarily the rising Euro - I guess Europe has gone from bankrupty to growth in a few weeks.
Not sure how long Euro's move up will last. When the US Dollar rises against the Euro, that which is denominated in US Dollars will likely fall or fall faster.
Massive inflation is the only way to pay back debt, must keep a bid under treasuries...
That's all I have. If the velocity of money starts picking up, oil will also be a good tell and then the PMs go to the moon or we get world war of course.
Wait till Maria B shows her spread...
Bits is a nun. You'll be waiting a long time Jackie boy.
Economic collapse fears lead Govts. to remove civilian protections from military
On Aug. 17, Germany became the latest country to remove longstanding protections for civilian populations from military intervention in domestic conflicts. In a new court ruling, which repealed laws created out of the Nazi era in Germany, the government can now use the military against citizens in extreme cases, joining the U.S. and other nation states who have removed the dividing line between civilian and military policing.
The German military will in future be able to use its weapons on German streets in an extreme situation, the Federal Constitutional Court says.
The ruling says the armed forces can be deployed only if Germany faces an assault of "catastrophic proportions", but not to control demonstrations. - BBC
In the United States, Northcom was created shortly after 911 to be an military command dedicated to threats within the homeland, and instituted a discontinuation of Posse Comitatus, which had separated civilian police from military use on citizens since the end of the Civil War. Since its inception in 2002, the Federal government has expanded its sphere of influence over Americans with the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, and the militarization of many bureaucratic agencies. In fact, the majority of these increases have taken effect since the credit crisis of 2008.
No problem, we removed Glass-Steagall and not much happened.
Oh wait.
Talk of treasuries and gold in the same breath is laughable!
"Materials underperformed by the most today (which smells like QE-off) and was followed by Energy and Financials."
If QE is off, then what's up with gold rallying for three days? Or is gold just following the dollars lead here?
War drums
then why didn't oil also take off?
Faber makes an Uber-Bullish call today...says we have "100% chance of recession."
Sounds 100% Bullish to me if you apply GS Fuki analysis.
Precisely AltKey. EUR/USD should be down on QE dashed hopes or EU troubles..not at the highs. Correlation shifts sometimes indicate a change in the market regime....
that bonus chart: that last entire "surprise cycle" (2011) didn't do too much did it?
a 0.8% drop in an index or five seems like a plunge in these over-orderly "gaming-tabled" markets
now, i spose we'll see a correction? Ha
we have a lotta phD types? here:
in a deflationary collapse, does the price of gold cross the price of an apple share and if so, at what price?
[well, ... within $1500 on the collapse cross, ok?]
tyvmi'lbhralwk
Or maybe just an odd day. BTFD and stop worrying.
Is it just me or does Maria B seem permanently uptight? I think she needs to get laid. Why don't one of you beltway types throw her a bone?
You missed an "r" off "bone"
Is a that a gold bar in my pocket or . . .
August 23, 2012 8:21 pm
Republicans eye return to gold standardhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/06ebfdaa-ed3f-11e1-83d1-00144feab49a.html#axzz24PKvHj8n
My cynical side says: Yeah, right. Romney will drop that like lit grenade if he gets in. Just some cheap (if juicy talk) to sucking the RP supporters and get some energy into the Zombie campaign.
Some appear to be heading for the exits before September, same pattern as just before May this year.
Time to "Sell in August and go.......away" No good rhyme, but seeing a lot of good reasons up here.
The average trade size volume chart looks like a real nice inverse head and shoulders, S+P 1500?
Re-coupling trade with commodities and risk. We had it coming. You are nuts if you go long in this, QE3 or no QE3, doesn't matter (Aug rally priced it in). Profit taking will send this much lower and correlating with the industrial commodities that TANKED whilst we had the Aug meltup in equities = if Bernanke cannot get commodities to rally QE will be an instant flop (as opposed to a quarter later when the market sells anyway).
Gold and USD rising smells like the beginning of a liquidation trade on equities.
Sense crash is very close.
I'd love to know what a "crash" actually is. A fall to 1258 only puts the S&P back to year start. But is that a crash, really? I don't know but I'm curious about the definition, if there is such a thing in these Wacky Races days.
10% to 20 % negative, but in one day. So a sell off that wipes out a whole year on the S&P. That is a crash. The only thing, or things that are supporting this market are HFTs churning the 50 and 100 MA's, sucking in longs. If commodities were super bid and the USD was under 80, I would be say that the indexs are supported by the money pumps. They are not.
I would also extend this to the EUR, which is primed to go under parity. Sans the ECB futile attempts at elevation.
WE BEEN CALLING THIS CORRECTION FOR 3weeks NOW -OUR SAR MODEL PREDICTS A SLUMP OF 10% WITH HOUSING ANF FINANICIAL STOCKS WORST PERFORMERS...BUT GOLD UP TO 2200
The market operators are using expected QE as an excuse to kill the shorts. Once most of the shorts are out of the system and go on the long side, the operators will themselves take the short position and move the market to the downside using poor economic data as an excuse to kill the longs. This is how price discovery takes place in today's world.
The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.
www.letstalkmoney2012.in
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Akhil_Khanna.html
SPX / DOW / NASDAQ / DAX / FTSE choppy daily charts are still breaking down.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis