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Equity and Credit Disconnected (Again) As We Approach 3pm Rumor-Time

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Investment grade and high yield credit spreads are wider on the day (with investment grade underperforming so far) but the divergence between a somewhat well-synced equity and credit market yesterday and today's ramp in stocks is remarkable. We suspect this is the hangover from print-print-print expectations playing out in a more USD-based numeraire stock market but the underperformance of HYG once again suggests hedgers are more active in credit and less exuberant than equity players. Broad risk markets are supportive of ES up here as CONTEXT remains in sync helped by Oil (which is odd given the divergent drop in the Energy sector earlier this afternoon - CVX/RIG leak) and TSY 2s10s30s mostly.

Today's dispersion is of particular note among the last few weeks.

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:00 | 1879998 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Short at close, cover into the morning, BTFD from noonish onward. All is well, all is well..

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:02 | 1880004 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

We've seen our ramp for today.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:06 | 1880013 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Ahh this "market" screams SELLLLOOOFFFFFF, dont know what "they" are waiting for, maybe some FEDster DOUGH:))))?!?!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:06 | 1880014 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Nice profits in ES for EURO investors. ES up EUR down. Europe going down the drain.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:06 | 1880015 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Yeah, I'm getting ready to watch the 3:30 vapor ramp as I write this. What a fucking predictable joke this is.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:06 | 1880017 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Oh yeah..and oil is about to hit $100 a barrel heading into christmas.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:12 | 1880037 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

I'm giving a barrel of oil to everyone on my Christmas list. Makes a lovely, useful gift for $100. However wrapping them may require some help from a strong neighbor.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:09 | 1880022 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

oh look the euro down .5% and market up, fk bs. once euro green, 150+

 

 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:09 | 1880026 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

The market is not up until Tyler confirms its up. I think he just confirmed it.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:10 | 1880032 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Just when you think you've seen it all. No volume ramp started at 11:30 today and has been as if one lone trader runs the market.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:12 | 1880038 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

His name is Ben.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:22 | 1880065 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Bloomberg Radio reporting that the ramp up is because Mario Monti will have a meeting Wednesday morning and Italy will be fine.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 17:27 | 1880295 adr
adr's picture

Of course it was Ben and the Fed along with Mr Blankfein. Goldman's computers request a large lump sum from the Fed on preconfigured headlines to plug directly into the Algo market ramp program and voila, 1% market jump within minutes.

You can tell when this happens because the market has insane jumps and then shows a weird flat top mountain configuration on the chart. The chart will then jump up again or head down with the same pattern repeating over an over. Only a computer program can create a pattern like that over and over again day after day.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:14 | 1880042 ItsNotYouItsMe
ItsNotYouItsMe's picture

"One Lone Trader" ... or "Heavily Financed Tech" ... known as completely unecumbered computers trading without regard to equity requirements or fees and expenses and no fear of loss as that would effectively be socialized, eventually! 

With that kind of power, I could make the market move by myself as well!!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:15 | 1880043 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

These days you don't have to look at the clock to know when it's 3:00.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:21 | 1880062 jcaz
jcaz's picture

LOL-  yeah, makes perfect sense for stocks to rally with European credit about to shut down........ 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:30 | 1880087 Mark123
Mark123's picture

But the story is:

 

Things bad - more money printing - higher stock/asset prices

Things good - higher stock/asset prices.

Have you not been paying attention to MSNBC????

 

 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:24 | 1880070 GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

Soon there will be no non-government participants in equity markets, and the Dow will simply be an indicator of the willingness of the political-parasite class to set fire to huge amounts of money so that they can make their tiny cocks a bit less flaccid for a fleeting second (before dining on Iraqi Baby à la Cheney... raw and bloody, still screaming).

 

I'm shorting this shit now - selling DJ30 at 12110.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:33 | 1880103 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

So other people are in control of the market, love to rip peoples' faces off at every chance, and you're getting short?

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:59 | 1880210 GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

Sure - INTRADAY, Holmes. Took half off at 12075 (see below in thread) and will ride the rest and see how it closes.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 17:15 | 1880232 GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

Also... my contrarianism runs deep: I shorted Gold the other day at 1793, covered half at 1758, and have been scalp-selling overbought with the closed half for a few days now.... it's all in the threads here.

 

The thing about Kim-Jong-Il style markets - as the US has had for several years now - is that there are genuine constraints on how much scratch the PPT can chuck around. They DON'T have a bottomless bucket, and once they take their foot off any instrument, you can smell it a mile off.

Might cover the other half of the DJ30 short at 12050 if I can.

 

UPDATE 8:13 AM Strayan time: I just covered the second half at 12050, and then watched it shed abouther 15 points in five seconds.

PS Bernanke can go fuck his Fleshlight.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:27 | 1880078 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Um, who is buying US debt since the Fed backed off in June?  Asia and OPEC can recycle their trade surplus....but what about the rest???  Oh, wait, maybe it is the central bank of Libya.  Or perhaps Unicorns?

 

 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:27 | 1880079 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

Market has only been down 2 days in a row once in the last 7 weeks.   todays early downside momo was immediately reversed at the trendline and that continued all day.   up is the path of least resistance now.  this consolidation is a continuation pattern of the ramp from October.   tomorrow it breaks out higher.  

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:33 | 1880102 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Ever heard of the PPT?

 

They work closely with the MDT (monetary debasement team).

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:40 | 1880128 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Isn't that a old internet protocol to get those 56K modems to work back in the days?

You know, TUUUT TUUUT TUUUT, KKRRRRRK RRRRRKKKK KKKRRRRR TUUUT TTUUUUUT....

 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:45 | 1880154 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

of course, and that is why i think higher.  moral hazard in full swing when the ppt power reverses every down move.  but it better happen all in one day, because by day 2 , it's going back up. 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:37 | 1880118 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

yeah looks like even with the cattle-prod up his ass, they may fall short of 12179 of 11/11 and 12187 of 11/8 from which the crash occurred) can't wait to see tomorrow...........snark

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:29 | 1880083 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Will credit lead equity again? :munches popcorn:

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:32 | 1880090 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Market is up on rumors that the Mongolian Sovereign Wealth Fund may invest $500 dollars in EFSF.  EFSF is going to leverage that $500 dollars into $100 Billion for 2,000,000x leverage.  Buy, Buy, Buy!!!!! 

The EU eats at the local Mongolian Grill every Monday and they ran across some fool there. 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:36 | 1880115 Mark123
Mark123's picture

No worries...Europe is fixed per AP:

 

Prime Minister-designate Mario Monti of Italy said Tuesday he is ready to present his new government to the president after winning wide backing — and important pledges of sacrifices — from political, business and union leaders during two days of intense consultations.

 

So a collection of the most corrupt people in Italy (political, business and union leaders) are backing the Full Monti....

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:50 | 1880180 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Expect a non-sensical useless market until the day you awake and see futures down 700 pts...then you will know this f**ing game is over...until then expect to end up +75 pt everyday until the wheels truly and unrecoverably fall off...

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:58 | 1880202 onarga74
onarga74's picture

nice "conviction sell" finish. 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 16:58 | 1880203 GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

Took half position off at 12075... BErnanke and his fellow-trvellers can suck my balls.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 17:02 | 1880223 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Obvious EURUSD week long "head and shoulders" just completed.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 17:11 | 1880249 Fourth Horseman...
Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse's picture

The week of expirations has had historically the strongest return of the month.  The trend is a ramp early in the week and trade flat into Friday.  That is what we are seeing.  Since today was only somewhat successfull, we should see another attempt tomorrow.  Note that today's ramp happened around noon, well after the European markets closed....so no more bad news possible.  This is just a game.  

 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 17:17 | 1880261 chancee
chancee's picture

Robots hard at work on the triangle pattern.  Doesn't matter what anything else is doing.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if it fails since its all over the blogosphere.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 17:28 | 1880297 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

This sounds more like addicts hoping to score more drugs. The Fiat Addiction is taking it's toll. The withdrawal symptoms have been desperate, lately.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/10/13/fiat-addiction-update-1...

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