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Equity Market Goes Winehouse
Sometimes we just shake our heads. Other times, we just sob anxiously into our handkerchieves. This afternoon's rumor-ramp-denial-no-dump was absurdity at its very best. A 16pt rip in ES on the basis of rumor of another bigger bazooka from the IMF (courtesy of Nikkei not the FT this time as we all know what their rumors are full of) was ignored by pretty much every other asset class. We tweeted almost instantly that the denial would be forthcoming in 10 minutes and sure enough it was. But wondrously, what goes up, does not come down as ES gave back a measly 5pts leaving it very far bereft of broad risk asset's perspective of value.
We use CONTEXT here to show the divergence from risk assets in general but we note that TSYs, EUR, even commodities hardly budged on this rip higher in ES until it had well and truly gone ballistic. As is clear from the chart below, TSYs were not impressed at all (no selling and risk rotation there), DXY (driven mainly by EURUSD obviously) didn't budge initially and even when it did, hardly got enthusiastic, and ES which tore higher hardly gave any back on the denial from the IMF.
Credit indices (which seemed thin all day and were just being reracked by dealers in our opinion) did follow suit but HYG did not. We also note that around the time the rumor hit HYG and JNK were being pretty aggressively sold (majorly underperforming) and given our previous perspectives of the support we believe the ETFs have on the HY secondary bond market, why are we not surprised someone tried the stick-save rumor.
Unsurprisingly, financials benefited most from the rumor and again unsurprisngly gave almost none of their gains back into the close after the official denial...
As for the rumors, first ZH predicted the original one (granted we miscalculated that now even the Japanese media has become a sellout whore to the highest bidder) at around 2:40 pm:
And then the denial at 3:49:
Our tweet says it all...
We assume this will be called 'resilience'...we have a slightly different term for it...
Peter Tchir, of TF Market Advisors, offered a short-and-sweet perspective on this incessant rumor and its folly:
I do not believe that the IMF can create a new plan above its existing unallocated money without new commitments from its members. The EU is effectively out. The US will struggle to approve anything. China, Russia, and Brazil are not necessarily in position to increase their commitments as they all have domestic problems. Japan and the UK just keep hoping the bond vigilantes continue to leave them alone.
The IMF may borrow from someone, but not to get leverage but because their members are reluctant to fund existing commitments! The IMF is going to need money for existing plans. Countries aren't going to be happy to issue bonds so that they can give the IMF money.
This is all circular and that circularity is coming back to haunt those people desperately trying to come up with new ways to extend and pretend.
How much has France committed to but not paid for? Has anyone added up their unfounded liabilities to EFSF, IMF, EU, EIB, Dexia? I'm guessing the number is meaningful and that I have missed potential commitments.
Charts: Bloomberg
(h/t John Lohman for the title)
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The equity crash is going to be epic
-Sheitner
Agree. As long as we can print and there's a breathe in Big Ben's or Obama or Geitner, they will not allow equities to dump. If you haven't got the message by now over these last few years, there's no hope for you at this point.
Strongly disagree. The world equities market is bigger than those 3 clowns you mentioned - no matter how big their printing press is.
I think we need to test both equitie and Michelle Obama for HGH use. They are freakishly too strong right now!
Arugula to Mish is like spinach to Popeye. The end robust physical result appears to be identical.
The collapse will come in banking, then it will spread through everything else.
Once again, ZH proves to be the best news source on the planet. Now, if only the HFT Algos would begin following ZH on Twitter...Maybe the S&P would revert to fair value.
Fair value? You mean like mark-to-market? There is no money to be made in fair value. Haven't you figured that out yet? This is not a market, it is a casino at an insane asylum. Anyone still dealing in paper is an idiot.
at least jpm not exposed to PIIGS
the world wide interweb sez so.
They invested in GIIPS instead it says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-07/jpmorgan-has-about-100-billion-...
That's one way to hide potential losses.....from spell checkers anyways
hilarity ensues; Bloomberg quotes Demon, "We only have this much" (waves tiny little violin) Demon knows how to add everything to make balance sheet look big, and subtract everything he has made a deal he never has to pay.
Since Daemon has given us a number, it is probably what they are actually leveraged, so 25X? What is a few T between idiots.
They try to make me go to rehab I say a-noo noo noo
Help RON PAUL push over $1MM today to run ads in Iowa and New Hampshire
She was a great musician.... If only the long retards had any talent aside from their sick equity-at-whatever-multiple-whatever-the-macro-context....If you are a PM stuck with a mandate forced to own stock, move around the rules, scratch your head, use some shorts, create synthetic USD debasement trade at least try to be creative !
To donate, visit rickperry.com. Bwa hahaha.
HYG and JNK were being dumped when today's miracle, 9th iteration of the IMF to bailout Europe bullshit was announced. Probably not disconnected.
Rarely is. Hy cash never followed CDs or hyg - Dunbar longs about to be punished
the equity markets will get Sandusky on anyone still "invested"
We're deep in full retard territory now.
They are working hard to bring in the last of the short bus crowd not already in the market. Light volume ramp.
The markets are building up a tolerance for Hopium. They now require a daily fix in order to keep the ponzi going. Can't wait until the hopium is cut off and the markets begin going through major withdrawals.
Poor Amy.
Either there will be an overnight rumor of good results for tomorrow's meeting or vice-versa.
Whichever it is, the HFT machines will dump or buy the volatility 100 times faster than anyone else.
Volatility is making them $$$, completely devoid of reality, facts, or fundamentals.
Stock Market represents the illusion of confidence in this mercantilist/fascist gov't. Can't let that baby go down!!!
The whoremasters of Wall Street must get quite a kick out of all this. There definitely are two sets of rules in this world, and the elite are on the winning side... for now.
This is worth watching again. This scene is eerily prophetic.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ko9eMLn0qSk
Douglas flubbed his line. It's not "Greed is Good!". It's "Fraud is Good!".
I believe the "Greed is Good!" line was based upon a similar comment in a speech by Ivan Boesky. It was a catchy quote in the film.
Wall Street is Fraud Street.
It was back when wall street raped and pillaged without zero interest loans from the fed. Evil? Maybe. Funded by us? Not back then
The only think coming from the EU Summit will be Sarkozy after getting a dry German handy from Merkel.
Which is why, when the crash comes, it's going to be bigger than anyone anticipates.
It shows where the algos and the PPT have their focus.
Absurdity at its best says it all.
DavidC
Money for nothing and the (rumor) tips are free.
What consist the context index?
It'd be hilarious if my short-positions weren't getting hammered.
these fucking rumors have cost me so many thousands the last year i can hardly stand it...
Buy guns and ammo.
Roger that....
The thing is, what this crap does is to create a gigantic air pocket under the market, because there are no real-live, human beings driving these stocks up. All it does is make a crash more likely.
Who cares about rumors? They don't matter. PPT was hard at work today keeping silver down, and the market up. Good job government!
libertarian86.blogspot.com
I agree. Silver coins for me.
Equitie is about to double top or breakout. Let's analyze....
Normally given the fact that we are deep in what will be known as the Greatest Depression I would assume a double top, but the Central Banks of the world are once again using the Federal Reserve's emergencie lending facilitie like there is no tomorrow (there isn't), so Fiat could get crushed as the race to the bottom could intensify.
Add wars, and rumors of wars, and oil and PMs could get bid, further crushing the Fiat Ponzi. There is a chance however that all of this is put on pause for the financiers love to buy low. Add the bond market is quite large and a drop in USTs and Munis could end the system itself.
Policie makers are between a rock and a hard place. They're best bet is to keep the market moving sideways, but something has to give sometime. Anyone's guess is as good as anyone elses.
QE3 must have commenced without our knowledge. If the FED could inject trillions of dollars without notice they can obviously do what ever they want whenever they want. As time continues the markets might go up and down within a range but they will never go down-down. A down-down market means the 1% has lost control.
Secret loans scare me
time to sell SPY calls.....
redonkulous.
Why do none of you ever ? that all this currency destruction is intentional. If you listen to planners, what do they do? they plan and what they are planning for is one world gov't. whether they succeed or not they are trying. what better way to take away countries sovereignty that to collapse and bailout economies only to have other make you countries financial choices for you. this is atlas shrugged. even though atlas shrugged in 09 the fed is doing everything it can to keep their phony crony capitalism and ponzi scheme afloat. which was created by progressives who gave us a progressive income tax which is the 2nd pillar of communism. what's the first? abolish private propery. How better to get rid of private property in america than to force banks to give home loans to people who cant afford them only for them to be forclosed upon and nobody knows who owns whose mortgages and the banks who used to own them are now owned by the Government Sponsored Enterprise known as Fannie Mae. BTW the gov't under BJ Clinton forced banks to make loans to poor people. that is not an accident. WTFU
This whole thing is a joke. Complete joke.
How anybody involved in the markets has not figured this out yet is beyond me. Anybody still doing robotrading should shut down the computer, collect their cash and go buy physical PMs while waiting for all this nonsense to collapse.
You know you're living in 1984 when you expect the Euro to rise after the ECB finally decides to print or when UST go up after the US is downgraded by S&P.
Gold /silver should be so much higher right now as they are the only true asset with any integrity left.
End rant
Please spare us the Amy Winehouse analogies,and the Vincent Van Gough analogies and any artist analogies, Artists and bankers, not fucking happening, whats next ? Jim Morrison as Hedge fund trader symbol?
Elvis left the building, so did Amy, so did Renee Magrit and Charley Parker
To put the names of these people alongside the names of those in the
FINANCE SECTOR IS AN INSULT.
Artists are a bit mental because unlike sheeple they can see the FILTH?
Just sayin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FND9eDp4nE&feature=related
Dont put artists names next to the names of Treasonous shitbag scum. please, I object strongly.
It's Vincent van Gogh, not Gough. It's Rene Magritte, not Renee Magrit, and it's Charlie Parker not Charley Parker. If you're going to draw on artistic analogies at least check your spelling!
DavidC
It is Miller high life, not Miller light, but you understud my point in the maleable English language ?
WTF Nigga? this ain't France.
Nope.
Refudiate all you want, but homage to individuals includes knowing and spelling their names correctly.
Oh, and fuck you, it is Gough, phoneticaly, I can not wait until i get to BBQ the fatty scullcaps of your obese ilk.
kiss my ass, David Ceedy mo fo.
Oh dear, we don't like to be corrected, do we? It's malleable, not maleable, understood, not understud, skullcap, not scullcap, etc, even spell checking picks these up.
Incidentally, I'm not obese, I'm English.
DavidC
Er, I guess he would also consider it a bad time to mention that the Dutch phonemic is Van 'Gok', huh?
minosgal,
I thought I'd maybe gone far enough without bringing that up as well!
DavidC
Thats funny, because im Scots ,Irish and grew up in England and you are nothing but a dog poo, known by it;s fruit.
I would not bother correcting your Wannabe idiocy but it pleases me to do so, so A. The English language is Maleable.It can be wound as clay, unlike Frankish or Chino,
So your grandaddy was English?Your assumptions are based on US assumptions about the English,
Did you ever peel potatoes in a Yorkshire chip shop for a living,No Paki,
English is more than a fucking passport, you low life shoe bomber, and Im a mere multi generational implant of closely related Isrealite tribes, what are you? A Pakistan tick?
A Commie used condom, a slime of dog cum on a workingmans boot, or just a run of the mill New Hampshire,basement living douche bag,
spellcheck that bitch,looking forward to meeting you.
You are it! a representation of the cancerous thought within the realm, it will end badly for you, piano wire, go long.
I'm not going to respond to any of your comments after this, suffice it to say that I am half Scottish (not Scots as you write), the possessive form of it is its (not it's or, as you wrote, it;s), etc etc.
If you want to correct any of my grammar or spelling then please do so, I'm happy to learn. If you can't (note the correct use of the apostrophe) contribute anything of value then please stop indulging in ungrammatical, incorrectly spelled, personal insults.
You will, of course, already have noted that the standard of language and level of grammar used by Tyler et al, is extremely high - I would imagine that the Flesch Reading Ease is lower and the Flesch Kincaid Grade Level is higher, a good aspiration as far as I'm concerned.
You will note that I have not personally insulted you. I request that you grant me a similar respect. Either way, this is my last word here.
DavidC
Just a thought, but if Euroland gets bailed out, surely this will be bearish for the Euro, hence bullish for the Dollar? Dollar up, stocks down?
DavidC
Yes. So QE in us to offset that strength. Scary but possible
This may be how EU officials and financial reporters supplement their incomes.
At 2:00 pm you buy a bunch of call options, release some wild ECB bailout rumor at 3:00 pm, and sell your calls just before the close for a tidy profit. Easy money!
Why not? It's legal for congressmen!
Oh, ZH playa's, you're missing the snark.
Amy was a well brought up money'd Jewess1 whose career was highly managed, apart from the boyfriend bit (some trash from Lincolnshire, UK) and the drugs: which would have been fine, but she couldn't hold it together to make the money on her last tour (and embarrassingly danced / sung badly at the "launch" of her 13 yr old niece's inauguration).
Anyone who says that "drugs necessarily lead to destruction" hasn't paid enough attention to Keith these last 40 years: drugs are fine, if you keep your shit together, and don't get burnt out by the system...
She was well aware of the game
Pretty much rule it as a suicide, due to inability to be inauthentic.
Oh, the markets? Yeah... there's some drugged up players all wanting to do the right thing, and having to lie through their teeth. Sooner or later, one will break down and give up playing the game.
Her last tour was eastern Europe !!! Russian mob, she failed big time and woke up dead one day, where is the mystery, a lot of people in Tajikistan
and Moscow lost money, so she woke up dead.
She was OFFED ever so quietly as a warning.
And there was I thinking that Murdoch had her killed to deflect attention from his UK problems.
Same deal as Jackson - if you can't perform anymore, then... *snip*. And it sure as shit ain't the venues that are calling the shots on artists ~~ small fries compared to global profits. Or need I point out the rise in sales that both artists achieved on death? 'Tis a common strategy to "dump n pump".
Blaming this on the Russian mob is rather like blaming vegitarians for Hitler: top tip ~ ticket sales already happened, you can lawyer yourself out of repayment in Russia. Plus, who the fuck cares about a shitty little $10mil, when you're posting profits in the billions? Only her handlers make that money...
Please dude, know of what thy speak, she did 11 engagements in eastern Europe tour she fucked up badly and could not perform,
Who rents stadiums? not me, not you.
She was an artist and could not do it.
People lost money,big money, she woke up dead.
no mystery but a great loss, the gangstas still got the respect and we lost a great artist, check out the VARIOUS autopsies.
A little 562x7 in your beer and you just die, mysteriously,
THEY Off'd Amy, Kurt Kobain, Jim Morrison, Marc Bolan, Sid Vicious,Keith Moon,Mamma Kass,.
Mamma Kass and Keith Moon died in the same room ?
Google that shit.
Big money dudes are in the process of learning what billions on the outside already know:
-- -- When yr broke you are broke -- --
It's tough ... there is nothing left to do but pull yr pockets inside out. Right now it's the Eurodudes that are broke. Next up is Japanese and Chinese, they can both borrow endlessly in their own currencies. Looks like the Americans will be the last ones standing.
Will they learn anything, these Americans?
You kiddin'?
This market deserves to be sent to hell. Bull and bears with tears of frustration. Again a sell at the close. Same pattern. June 2011 high is never going to be reached. A slight rally yr end, then anyone going long will be decimated.
2012 will be hell
page 16 is the synopsis
http://www.occ.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/trading/derivatives/dq211.pdf
but - it's all hedged....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OFMkCeP6ok
Tony Bennett & Amy Winehouse - Body And Soul
What?? Oh, I thought you meant it died from an overdose. Of hopium.
Everyone is flummoxed on the behavior of the market because we haven't seen this much unexplained wierd activity. When the SPX is going to crack the money is there to hold it up. We've seen it in spades this week. FWIW here is my guess at what is going on...
IMF, ECB, FED, and everyone else responsible for the worlds money knows that there is going to be an event soon and I mean very soon. MF Global got everyones attention and Europe and the Euro is toast. This meeting is NOT a group of world economic leaders getting together to arrange financing and establish agreements. It is an emergency meeting of world leaders to figure out how they are going to manage this impending Black Swan. It cannot be prevented and they know it. The market is on pins and needles, hedge funds are looking at huge losses this year, MF Global, etc and there is little fundamental economic activity to support these levels, the nice holiday rallies etc.. As Kevin Haggerty is fond of re-quoting, "Markets don't move. They are moved." Unfortunately, the whole world is broke and the best remedy is to let the crash do it's business and be a market, lie in ruins for a time and somehow rebuild a market of 2 sides again, no bots, no freakin QE infinity experiments and a market with ton of accountability. John Q may be stupid but when this baby cracks and can't be fixed they're gonna be stupid with cash (maybe)
the market will always be broken from here on out. Technology will ensure that the elite will always take advantage of the masses from here on out. Even after a crash. Honesty and integrity do not compute.