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Erik Townsend: Expect a US Price Shock as Black Swans Come Home to Roost

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Erik Townsend: Expect a US Price Shock as Black Swans Come Home to Roost

American investor (and longtime member) Erik Townsend has spent the past several years living internationally, with an eye to which countries may be good alternatives if economic crisis and/or Peak Oil start to materially impact life in the US. 

His main observation as an expat? Through its misguided policies, the US has been exporting inflation to the rest of the world, raising prices all over the globe (as an example, he cites a $57 chicken pot pie from the menu at a 'working class' restaurant in Australia). 

This inflation is affecting the rest of the world harshly, but is not yet being felt in the US due to our ability to export it as the issuer of the world's reserve currency. Our immunity will not last forever though, and when it ends, a massive upwards spike in prices is going to hit US markets.

On the Global Economy

As far as I can tell, this whole economy is being propped up by stimulus and money printing, really since 2009. And I think that what is going on is we have forgotten that we are literally changing the—I do not know if you want to call it changing the terminology or changing the paradigm—but what is going on here is, we used to use words like “solution” fairly accurately. Now as we are just creating these Band-Aid fixes to temporarily put symptoms of problems at bay.


We are calling those solutions, and we are actually behaving -- and when I say “we”, I mean collectively market participants -- are behaving now as if the ECB printing money in order to buy some more Greek bonds and put a bid under that market was a solution to the European sovereign debt crisis. And it is obviously nonsense. The ECB printing money just dilutes the value of the Euro and causes more reason in the long term for people to flee away from making investments in Euro-denominated sovereign debt. So it does not solve anything.


But we have gotten to the point where we are so overwhelmed that the market is thinking in terms of these Band-Aid patches as being actual solutions to problems. And I think as long as that is the case, we are going to continue to apply these Band-Aid patches, which are things like printing more money, until it all comes to a head. When it comes to a head and how it comes to a head, I do not think anybody is smart enough to predict accurately.


At some point, though, we are going to get to a point where we cannot handle any more printed money and I think that the black swans that have been leaving the market alone for several years are going to come in force.

 On The Market's Willfull Blindness

I do not think that we have ever seen a larger basket of major macro structural risks that everybody is aware of. It is not like nobody sees these things. But we have just somehow put them all on the back burner. Do not worry about China. Do not worry about Europe blowing up. Do not worry about Iran. Do not worry about the carry trade unwind in Japan that you have just written about recently. Do not worry about Peak Oil. Do not worry about the domino effect of China and Japan going down, taking out other economies that depend on them.


It is all fine. The LEIs are looking up. And we just seem to be in this cyclical trading mindset


that it is going to continue to last until something breaks. And I think that when something breaks, it is going to break big.

On The China Wildcard

I think China has quite a bit of pull here. In that as QE3 happens—and I am convinced it is going to happen sometime this year, I do not know when—it is going to export so much inflation to China that it is going to be almost intolerable for them.


And I think that we are forgetting that if China says, “Okay, guys, we have had enough of this. If you do any more QE-ing we are going to dump the US Treasury bonds that we are holding and we are going to use the money to save our own economy.” If we see that kind of reaction from China, it really could put a monkey wrench into the plans of the central banks to inflate this all away.


I think that whether it is that mechanism or another one, at some point we are going to get to a hard wall here where you cannot just print money forever without the unintended consequences coming back and biting you.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Ben Davies (runtime 51m:56s):

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Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:38 | 2218802 tempo
tempo's picture

Caution...Germany just reported 1.7% decline in retail sales M/M!!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:07 | 2218848 flacon
flacon's picture

m/m is too short a time frame, imho. There are reports out now that say silver has crashed since m/m sales are down 83% since January. We just had the second biggest sales month for US Silver eagles in January in the history of mankind, and now February is only the fourth largest sales for February, and they are saying that silver bauble has popped.... which of course is total rubbish. 


Doom and gloom...


Look at the real numbers here, you will find that although February was not nearly as "on fire" as January, just go back a few years and see just how far silver has come! 

US Mint

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:24 | 2218899 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Remember- No two data points show a trend.

3 hotties, however, is best served with a bong.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:29 | 2218911 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Looking forward to the day when US homes are deconstructed for their underlying materials,

according to that day is coming soon.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:57 | 2218961 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

that day has already arrived my friend

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 00:08 | 2219080 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

PERU is still rocking and rolling.  Whatever slowdowns in exports (to China, etc.) may have happened still have had no obvious signs on their economy.  I will be down there in less than two weeks and will report in.

Our bearing import company there had it best two month start ever.  Our Korean pieces for cars & trucks (as replacement parts) are selling very well.

Peruvian (at least in Lima) real estate has been in a huge bubble for years now...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 02:42 | 2219287 Michael
Michael's picture

I'm at the top of the food chain. I'm a precision diamond insert tooling maker. Our company is going gangbusters right now. I can only attribute the increase in business to the war being hyped against Iran. If that war doesn't happen, expect a pullback.

OT, this is a neat video;

Reality Check: The Fiat Dollar is the real reason for high gas prices

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 03:16 | 2219307 Michael
Michael's picture

What Breitbart was saying is that our animal has not been completely vetted.

People really should take a closer look at the candidate and have them completely vetted before putting them in such a high position of power for our country.

Breitbart: I Have Obama College Films


Sat, 03/03/2012 - 03:25 | 2219314 Michael
Michael's picture

It's now "Sector Warfare". Private Sector vs Public Sector.

When the government employees become too hostile toward the American people, the American people will answer the government employees with 300 million personal firearms in the? hands of the American people. That's why the 2nd Amendment was put in the US Constitution.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 07:34 | 2219408 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Got that right!  I might even start tomorrow with California "Board of Equalization" (think about that name for second).  Those fuckers owe about $45k in fuel tax refunds and they're nickle and diming me over nickles and butt-fuckin' dimes!

Support the Constitution, shoot a government worker.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 11:23 | 2219566 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Look at what will soon be here, true as it maybe there are a lot of tax evaders all over the world. When countries get pushed to the limits, look out. I believe in paying my "fair share", if not, then we would be a 3rd world country. Lets make it "fair", I would like the option of a flat tax rate, and not have to go through this "Bullshit" every year to do my tax return. I want to pay it and be done, then I know I'm done, and our Government knows how much they have to "spend". Hell they could almost do away with 3/4 of the IRS.

Anyway, here is a short read on Spanish tax evaders. It will be coming this way next.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:07 | 2219951 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

With over 7k lines in the current tax code, it would put a lot of cpa's and tax attorney's out of business overnite if we went to a flat tax.  Your intention is good and many people agree with your thinking including myself, however the reality is it just won;t happen.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 21:42 | 2220671 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

I am not sure which is more assinine....

Your stupid comment about shooting a government worker - As if some average government worker has anything to do with the state of the economy...or that you are getting nickel'd and dimed" .

Or...the fact that you would post something so openly threatening and inciting of violence on a webpage.

(HEY...Wait a goddamn minute here...all this bitching you are doing about the "gubmint' not paying you....does this mean YOU are getting paid by the government...waiting to get your hands on some of that government money...aye?) Are you another one of those  "I hate the gov't....cuz I don't get enough from it" hypocrites?  ... hahahaha

If you really feel that way and want to resort ti MAY want to consider keeping that shit that to yourself. 



Sun, 03/04/2012 - 00:26 | 2220979 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Actually, those are prepaid taxes.  We paid them upfront and are trying to get refunds back for non-highway use.  The State of California is supposed to use those taxes specifically for building and maintaining the highways.  They have rolled in into the general fund and roads have decayed.  It's another theft of public funds.


Sat, 03/03/2012 - 08:35 | 2219441 Hey Assholes
Hey Assholes's picture

I prefer the "productive sector" verses the "parasite sector".

Murray Rothbard RIP.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:47 | 2220301 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

When has the government backed down from people with guns? Answer: Never.

When has the government backed down from people with votes? Answer: All the time.

Bring back democracy and the government will bow down to 10,000 men, or 1000 women, properly organized.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 06:17 | 2223416 vato poco
vato poco's picture

"Never backed down from people with guns"? Really? Well, let's see.....libya, egypt, tunisia, romania, china in 1949, russia in 1917......

"Always backed down from people with votes"? Really? Well, let's see....syria, iran last year, china in 1989, venezueala, nicaragua, russia every year from 1917-1993 except once, I see where putin just got "re-elected" again.....

A most foolish comment.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 12:02 | 2219607 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Another OT, Susan Lindauer, second american person indicted with the Patriot Act who was under indictment for 5 years without trial because as a CIA asset she tried to contact two senators (Sen. McCain and Lott) to give them information that 9/11 was an inside job. She finally gets to speak out about her information on this tape.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 12:02 | 2219608 TrulyStupid
TrulyStupid's picture

The fact is that Breitbart revealed himself to be another attack loonie whose credibility became so impaired due to his own ethical deficiencies that he was virtually unemployable. Trying to resurect the glory days of his inluence (and income) by regurgitating "the Obama is the Other"  was a futile last stab at right wing glory.

Bush was never properly vetted and the thrust of all the right wing hacks is to this day is to keep his history of substance abuse, his ties to Saudi Arabia and Bin Laden, and his general unsuitability well buried.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 12:03 | 2219609 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Freedom is always on topic.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 10:45 | 2219533 pslater
pslater's picture

Michael, that was an awesome video on the fiat dollar vs. oil prices.  Thanks!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 00:32 | 2219117 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

$57 for an Aussie chicken? I just paid 12 bucks today for a whole rotisserie with 2 sides. It must be going towards their cameras and security personnel . I went there a few years ago hoping to find some liberty, sorry mates but the place felt like a fckng penitentiary. I expect it’s coming to the US soon.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 03:05 | 2219299 youngman
youngman's picture used to be a Penol Colony....and it still is...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 03:06 | 2219300 Precious
Precious's picture

The chicken is $57.  The lap dance, however, is free.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 11:31 | 2219578 Stares straight...
Stares straight ahead's picture

That is some Nasty Pot PIE!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 11:43 | 2219544 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

A country's gun laws tell you a lot about the place.  The Aussies were almost entirely emasculated several years ago in this respect. When the 2nd Amendment goes, you're totally done for.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:13 | 2219821 mliu_01
mliu_01's picture

ET is an idiot. Though he sounds like he know what he is talking about. ET is like Dillinger, both have a big mouth and tiny brain.

I have one advice for these two idiots. Next time, if you don't want be shocked by 57 bucks chicken pie. Try to pay it with the silver coins. You will be amazed how much cheap it went. fools. I know you two idiots said you can't eat gold. Sure, then go ahead shove that 57 buck chick pie down your pie hole while you still can afford it.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:14 | 2219823 mliu_01
mliu_01's picture


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 01:56 | 2221115 LikeClockwork
LikeClockwork's picture

As an inmate, I would like to know where this pot pie sells. I call BS. Some of us openly welcome the Police State and vote for the Greens.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 23:41 | 2220901 Red Raspberry
Red Raspberry's picture

Indeed they strip the copper out of them around me.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 00:05 | 2219073 deflator
deflator's picture

 The condominium complex that I live in was constructed primarily with cedar lumber. Cedar was abundant here in 1970. 2x4's, 2x6's and 2x10s 20' long. Just the 20' 2x10 floor joists and ceiling joists would bring nearly as much as the selling price of a building. It would cost 5 million dollars to rebuild one building which has 4 units. Each unit is selling for less than 65k.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 13:32 | 2219752 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Many U.S. barns have succumbed due to the value of their wood in the growing green/repurposing trend.

Old homes that are too costly to convert to modern 'R' value insulation and electrical standards hold significant value in architectural features (especially hand-carved pieces and mantles), copper and lead pipes, cut stone, and wood.

The more central banks overprint, the more people will look for "real" value beyond gold and stocks.

I caught the PBS Amish special this week and it struck me that their lifestyle skipped the entire ramp-up since the Fed was created. Very little need for oil, no bussing, no leverage, no unemployment, no hunger, no underfunded pensions, very rare obesity, no student loans, and no wars.

Their overweighting in ag and timber land, while escaping much food and energy inflation, has helped them outperform.  

Their "think locally, act locally" approach has freed them from most of the world's major problems. No wonder some of us "English" are making more changes toward their lifestyle.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 19:14 | 2220446 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

self-sufficiency, self-reliance, support of community - these will not be tolerated!!

"AMERICA, sleep well. After a year of surveillance, an undercover operation, and a pre-dawn raid by gun-toting U.S. marshals, the country is safe from an Amish farmer. Dan Allgyer’s crime? Selling unpasteurized milk to a food co-op in the Washington area.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 11:34 | 2219579 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture


Bad taste to tout your website here.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 08:27 | 2219440 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Here's a video on Warren Buffett and the circumstances that surrounded him at the time he sold his Silver.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 11:40 | 2219584 rqb1
rqb1's picture

thanks, i wanted to know what happened to warren's ag.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:20 | 2219857 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

Awesome video!!!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 12:34 | 2219623 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

The key to this saga is what is brought and up at aprox. 40:00 minutes of this video. Perfectly expressed there, is what will, and is, being done. The Fed is taking on all this debt, to be extinguished, with a key stroke on a computer - Later. Simple and easy done. That is why none of these doom and gloom scenarios postulated will never be realized. That is the beauty of the fiat system. In reality there is no difference in a nugget of gold, a piece of paper, or a LED character on a computer screen. They only symbolize that which is only emotional in character, and what the participants accept, either willingly or willfully, to represent that emotionality.


Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:00 | 2219796 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

I'm avoiding any asset the Fed can wipe out with a keystroke.

You can be part of the bag-holder re-set. I'll sit the bench.

If this live Keynesian experiment ends up being successful (I don't think it will) we will only get more of it.

In fact, if you are a country like Greece, and fiat is proven as a valuable tool, they will want the ability to print themselves. Why negotiate with 16 other nations if fiat is proven to be as real as its digital creation? 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:42 | 2220158 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

Face the reality. Modern man has, at this evolutionary juncture, all of his basic needs fulfilled and met. As long as that is continually met, neither will it matter to him, the methodology that is being used to satisfy those very needs. The herd  ("bagholders") extinct is stronger now that it ever has been. A 100 years ago none of the things we are forced fed, by the powers that be, would of been accepted, but now we accept, and for the majority, are quite grateful for it. Man on the whole is a happy jolly fat-assed couch potato and there will be few willing to get off that couch to fight the "good fight" for the right for you to hold an asset that they supposedly can't manipulate, which you and I know, they can anyway.

A line from Midnight Express comes to mind - Your a bad machine who who doesn't know he's a bad machine. It's back factory for you for re-tuning ....

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 11:41 | 2219587 Robslob
Robslob's picture



IGNORE the eCONomy...the markets are the only place for $10 Trillion dollars worth of printed fiatcos to go...


The world will burn while the Elitest bastards print their wealth while destroying real people and economies worldwide in synchronicity...

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:39 | 2218803 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Yes. But when?

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:48 | 2218827 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

When Turkey meets Swan.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:39 | 2218804 disabledvet
Sat, 03/03/2012 - 04:58 | 2219361 StychoKiller
Sat, 03/03/2012 - 09:51 | 2219491 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I did see a Chevy Volt on the highway for the first time. Nice looking car actually. Of course i was still waiting for this moment:

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:40 | 2218806 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

It is amazing how long this BS tirade has continued. The system holds together as the working classes are slowly destroyed. We are going to witness an oil shock quickly followed by devastating deflation when defaults kick in.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:52 | 2218833 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And the fiat currency will hyperinflate.  Value in everything except money (PMs), oil, water, and food will skyrocket as everything else plummets. 

The capstone of the Fiat Ponzi will crack and the arch of power will crumble.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:12 | 2218872 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the EU is a CURRENCY union...not a "gold union." the gold standard is what cemented the English currency union and the British Pound...for over 400 years i believe. it's the only "glue" that works with these crazy for in the USA since "we all came from the same place and kept moving in the same direction" once we all went bankrupt...and we always did...and still do. there has never been a currency union of the size and complexity of the EU ever in history. Once it flies apart...and it will fly apart...all that can be said is "total mayhem." you don't want to be anywhere near that thing when "it" goes off. "credit" is an interesting subject and never delved deeply enough here. In the USA for centuries "you needed a letter of introduction" first! zero percent credit card offers would truly AMAZE them! needless to say "the concept of inflation" was simply anathema to our "forefathers" who were always speculating wildly in real estate and then demanding...but failing to get...some "holy hand grenade of a bail out". thank God times have changed!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:19 | 2218885 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Halalujah!  Halalujah! Somebody give me a Halalujah! 

And so it was written ... The capstone of the Fiat Ponzi will crack and the arch of power will crumble.

Almost sounds Biblical.

Amazing how long it's gone on with one engine and a broken rudder.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 00:06 | 2219076 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture


And Amen to Brother Lennon Hendrix!

For our Brother truly sees the light...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 12:12 | 2219614 viahj
viahj's picture

and most of the lifeboats are already launched and gone

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 12:45 | 2219678 Matt
Matt's picture

Value in everything except money (PMs), oil, water, and food will skyrocket as everything else plummets.

So, what you are saying is, the price of plasma TVs and iPads will decline 90 percent, and the price of food and fuel will increase 1002 percent, and so we will be right on target with 2 percent inflation? Ben really has this figured out, doesn't he?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 00:36 | 2219118 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I'm ready for that swan and I am more than pissed that he's taken so long to get here.

Medieval Cookery: Dressed Swan

The bird was presented upright on its nest, the head held erect by a rod or skewer thrust through the mouth, down the throat into the breast. The swan was presented garlanded and crowned, on a silver or gold stand, with its wings erect, neck arched backwards, head erect. The instructions are as follows:

"Kutte a Swan in the rove of the mouthe toward the brayne enlonge, and lete him blede, and kepe the blode for chawdewyn; or elles knytte a knot on his nek, And so late his nekke breke; then skald him. Drawe him and rost him even as thou doest goce in all pyntes, and serue him forth with chawd-wyne."

Chawdron was a special sauce for swans. It was made of the bird's own guts, cut small and boiled in broth with its blood and vinegar and strong spices. It looked blackish and was served hot.

Swans may not be the most easily accessible food for the modern lifestyle (unless you happen to have a few in your local park pond, but then there's the inconvenience of catching them under cover of darkness). The following recipes have ingredients more readily available at your average supermarket.


Sat, 03/03/2012 - 10:18 | 2219520 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

Followed by food riots, as 46 million people find that Food stamps won't cover a mchappy meal.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 12:58 | 2219703 Matt
Matt's picture

I'm betting that as long as Wal-Mart accepts food stamps and USD, there won't be a collapse or riots.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:06 | 2220083 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

As long as Walmart -has- food to sell. Remember that everything they sell is imported. Which countries were accepting Weimar dollars during their hyperinflation? Zimbabwe? Argentina? Uncle Sam can load a hundred trillion SNAPbucks into everyone's accounts, but if he doesn't redeem those to walmart's account for something they can trade for food, the store shelves are empty in 3 days or less.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:40 | 2218809 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Somebody in the Administration is probably trying right now to figure out how exporting inflation can get counted in the balance of trade.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:44 | 2218817 batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

Or increase the BLS employment numbers.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:54 | 2218836 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Inflation devalues the dollar.  A devalued dollar raises asset prices.  Raised asset prices increase the balance of trade.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:30 | 2218913 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I am dumber for having read that.


Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:17 | 2218966 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I can't believe I am getting junked for stating something so obvious.  When the perceived value of a currency goes down, it does not buy as much, meaning prices rise.  As prices rise the goods have more value, therefore raising more capital.  So the nominal trade rises.  It's fucking economics 101 and it makes perfect sense.  Is it a smart policy to devalue the currency?  No, and I never wrote that.  I just responded to the person wondering if we could increase exports by increasing inflation, and that is exactly what Neo Keynesian policy does.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 00:46 | 2219137 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"As prices rise the goods have more value, therefore raising more capital."

When both teams (USA vs China) are devaluating simultaneously then it doesnt work.  AND, since China is pegged to us is a defacto tie.  Otherwise who are you really talking about?  Our trading with Zimbabwa...cause so far it's only been for inflationary advice.

Oh, and the value isnt "perceived".  When more dollars chase the same goods it's "actual" value that is going down...if it really had any to begin with.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 03:33 | 2219319 ctlaltDEL
ctlaltDEL's picture

'As prices rise the goods have more value'

What you meant to say was:

The value remains the same but it takes more paper money to buy it.

Price does not equal value.


Sat, 03/03/2012 - 09:58 | 2219501 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

and "price" everywhere and always is the name of the game. the theory of "you gotta pay for that" always must meet the reality of "how much?" and of course "it ain't New York if you're not answering with 'if you have to ask how much then you don't have enough.'" As it turned out "the government had enough." so to quote Australia in World War II..."we look to America now." that's EVERYONE btw. go ahead...kill those soldiers. go ahead...torture those vets. see what happens to ya'.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:54 | 2219060 bluebare
bluebare's picture

And somebody in Afghanistan is probably trying right now to figure out how exporting an act of terrorism can seriously unbalance that trade.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 11:12 | 2219555 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

See eye aye?

Sat, 03/10/2012 - 00:05 | 2242438 bluebare
bluebare's picture

Si.  A wise investor keeps their eye on the ball, or balls, as the case may be.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:43 | 2218814 batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

I always say the American economy is like having cancer but never feeling sick.

At what point do all these problems actually swamp our boat?

I realize globalization/China has done us in with high unemployment, and the housing crisis has caused problems.

But when do we start seeing tumors and begin vomitting?

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:48 | 2218826 Likstane
Likstane's picture

Don't talk about swamping the boat here. Very uncool!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:58 | 2218960 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

@ Batterycharged

What you will see soon is called "galloping cancer" once is triggered, it metastasizes in lightning speed. 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:01 | 2218968 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

it's already starting

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 00:12 | 2219089 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

46 million on food stamps and climbing.  You don't really need to look anywhere else.  GDP, the stock markets, unemployment, all of the rest of the numbers are so easy to manipulate... but food stamps... shit's fucked up.  Baltic Dry is another good one... nobody is shipping anything.  Wheels are coming off and all anyone is allowed to listen to, "is the recovery strong or weak"... not... "are we falling off of a cliff".

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 00:52 | 2219144 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Actually, I have to give a little credit to the Chmn...didn't he just say (in refr to Congr deficit spending) that we are "heading toward a cliff"? I believe he did.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 04:12 | 2219341 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Actually, I have to give a little credit to the Chmn...

Yeah, well you better at least charge him 29.99%.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:44 | 2219902 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

paraphrasing...but he said if we 'cut off' fiscal stimulus along with monetary stimulus.....we will do neither.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 07:42 | 2219411 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Yeah, that's how i lost all my PM'

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:16 | 2218878 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

it will be covered up, swept under the rug, ignored by the lamestream corporate media as long as there are fish to fry.

THe sypmtoms are apparent, just not discussed, they are deliberately ignored or poo-pooed as trivial. See how the current dilema is referred to always as a
"recovery" - sometimes lackluster, sometimes quiet, sometimes slow, but always a recovery, because to suggest it is not a recovery, would mean we are in the jaws of the maelstrom.

Can't have that, its bad for business, who buys new cars for the end of the world?

Look around you, if you are over 50 and unemployed, you know what's really happening. if you are under 30 and unemployed you know whats really happening. If you are one of the 50 odd million people on food stamps, you know what is really happening.

The tumors and the bleeding will be covered with "dancing with the stars" band-aids and quietly ignored or dismissed until the patient keels over dead.



Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:31 | 2219022 HD
HD's picture

Excellent post.

Unfortunately, TPTB know that I can't riot in the streets if I'm watching Maria Menounos half naked on network television.

The plutocrats know my weaknesses all too well.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:56 | 2219064 Hypersonic14
Hypersonic14's picture

Excellent post!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:57 | 2219065 Hypersonic14
Hypersonic14's picture

Excellent post!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 00:16 | 2219093 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I should have read your post before posting mine just above.  Well said.  The language of the discussion is remarkable.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 06:15 | 2219385 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Chevrolet's Volt Sales Running Low, GM Idles the Line

Electrified vehicle sales are we got that going for us. :>D

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:49 | 2218945 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Doesn't matter....  Remember, looking good is better than feeling good!


Sat, 03/03/2012 - 00:09 | 2219085 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"I always say the American economy is like having cancer but never feeling sick.

At what point do all these problems actually swamp our boat?"

It's Testicular Cancer, Bob
You feel it when your nuts fall off and you grow bitch tits...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 08:19 | 2219436 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Not that it matters, but a, ahem, friend of mine would live to know the significance of bitch tits AND a dick (remember I'm just the medium/broker in this question!  I have no problem maintaining interest in strange so long as it doesn't invole any more effort than punching a couple of holes in something paper-like.

Attention Young Guys!  Women aren't impressed by displays of humongeous cocks (Lucerne Valley, CA exempted...those women get off on their OWN humongeous cocks.  And the best bar pickup line is "Nice tooth:,

City girls are only intersted in fluff and 'livin the lifestyle.  The lifestyle these days involves about forty people...all the way from some the lowest goat roper on the planet  To the whore of the week (male, femail,



Sat, 03/03/2012 - 11:59 | 2219606 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

How about translating that post sport?  Stream of consciousness much?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 07:56 | 2219421 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

My best guess is sometime shortly after January 2013, if they can hold it together that long. I believe that one of the greatest fallacies/delusions we mostly all share is the belief that all this macro insanity exist due to the failure or stupidity of the regime. Increasingly I don't see it that way. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to 'discover' the clear pattern of malice. We do not have ( to quote a very sick man), "an economy built to last". This fact is not due to the ineptitude of those at the top (seen and unseen). We are being set up for the fall. What is coming has been long planned.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:17 | 2220339 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

"But when do we start seeing tumors and begin vomitting?"


When did the real estate market start puking? That's as good a time as any.

I almost have to laugh when I see people wondering when the shit is going to start, when they are sitting in the middle of it.

When do you think the auto industry is going to get in trouble? Do you think investors might turn against Greek bonds some day? Is it possible unemployment might rise in the future? Could the government start to run a deficit? Will state and local governments ever run out of money?

Jeez. If you want to look at what caused the present mess, and what caused the cause, you can trace it back to the rise of Keynesianism and big government in the 30s.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:49 | 2218829 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I understand the hesitance to take advice from a lunatic, however, One really should be buying tomorrow's lifestyle at today's prices wherever possible. Generators, long term storage foods, PM's, store-able fuels, land, camping gear...........and anything else of practical, tangible value that will enable oneself to provide some level of comfort, stability, and insulation from the day of reckoning that will someday unfold. Buy it and store it and profit from it.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:52 | 2218834 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

You seem to be, under good guidance to me!  A.L.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:56 | 2218838 homer8043
homer8043's picture

If this non-sense doesn't start to correct and soon, that "camping" gear will come in handy.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:36 | 2219890 twotraps
twotraps's picture

Not sure if anyone comes back to read comments the next day but I agree with you, what else are you doing?  I've been shopping for some tillable land, finding it very time consuming....the rest of the stuff just picking up along the way.  Found a great sollution to water, and working on food.  Its not lunacy, most of these'crazy purchases' can find a way into your life if nothing happens, that to me makes it worth pursuing.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:07 | 2219950 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Go get a complete health check........blood-work, urology, and a thorough follow up on any questionable results. Same thing with the dentist. This is not cheap now and it will only get worse...........if it's available at all. Read, Read, a minimum, familiarize yourself with as many "lost arts" as you can as well as food preservation techniques, defensive measures, first aid, animal husbandry, etc. Stay away from fruitcakes, provocateurs, anarchists, and any who openly promote violence against any individual, entity, or Official................that said, always remember to call it as you see it and apologize to no one. Free your mind and the rest will follow.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:00 | 2220065 twotraps
twotraps's picture

appreciate that.  the size or duration of any dislocation required to tip over the fragile networds we rely on is so small.....3 days to clear the shelves, 3 weeks to refill them...anything along the lines you are describing will truly be something to see.   thanks again.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:58 | 2218843 blindman
blindman's picture

just for fun... who is ben davies?
this no fun.
The Men Who Killed Kennedy; The Guilty Men (full)
today in usa, 2 cups of coffee $4.04, 1 gallon of regular
gasoline $4.04. 80 oz waid's honey, $32.00.
that pot pie must have been at an exclusive place with
lots of atmosphere.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:59 | 2218846 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I was reading Schiff going back and forth with Rickards over China dumping treasuries. Schiff had the mindset above. Rickards was countering that if China started dumping treasuries en masse the US had the ability to freeze their accounts and prevent them from doing so. It was an interesting exchange.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:04 | 2218855 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Which Schiff? They are both {squaring} each others [ light bulbs ].    Long XAU . Short bonds. WHAT Gives?

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:22 | 2218892 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Peter Schiff going back and forth with Rickards. His brother caught a lot of shit on here the other day. But all in all he is a good guy too.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:29 | 2218905 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Thanks for the clarity. +1 If I'm correct ? Peters brother caught shit for acting like "Little Red Riding Hood".

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:05 | 2218977 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

I don't know about his brother, but Peter is dumber than a box of rocks. Especially compared to JSKim

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:13 | 2218987 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

The little girl running through forrest "iteration".

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:43 | 2219042 LasVegasDave
LasVegasDave's picture

Still waiting for the day that Pete's Dad Irwin is celebrated as a Charlemagne for his crusade against the taxing authorities.

Big Ups Irwin, you are not forgotten

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:07 | 2218861 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Freeze what accounts. At that point it would be chaos. There would not be any accounts to freeze. They are not Libya. You think their acquiring large amounts of physical assets is not a clue that at some point they just tell us to piss off? If they dump treasuries so would everyone else. 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:24 | 2218898 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

From the interview...his words not mine.

 "The Chinese will never "dump" assets because this could cause the US to freeze their accounts. However, the Chinese will shorten the maturity structure of those assets to reduce volatility, diversify assets by reallocating new reserves towards euro and yen, increase their gold holdings, and engage in direct investment in hard assets such as mines, farmland, railroads, etc. All of these developments are happening now and the tempo will increase in future".

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:27 | 2218903 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Yes interesting as to what everyone thinks will happen. Sometimes I think using a dartboard may be more accurate.

Cheers !


Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:50 | 2219916 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

Nobody grasps the complexity of the world. No brain trust, no think tank, no collection of "wise men" can. Our most sophisticated computers cannot model all the recursion, feedback loops, and other dynamic features involved in a system the size and scale of the global economy. Prediction is impossible. We can't even model all the variables.

I have a friend who did his Ph.D in modeling the behavior of one long-chain amino acid. The computer power to do so wasn't available until very recently. The dynamics and topology was that complex. And that's just one amino acid alone.

The Phillip Drus of the modern world have all made the same mistake: thinking "society" is a unified thing, rather than an emergent property of a nearly-infinitely complex system.

Still, since the Gov't/Corporate/Central Banking complex pays real well to manipulate this "thing", you've got quite a collection of Ivy league idiot savants all hammering, sawing and boosting away at pieces of this complex system all at the same time. Since they cannot know the interconnectedness nor appreciate the knock-on effects over time, they have simply decided to do what's best for themselves in the immediate short-term, because that's what they're paid to do, and that much is predictable.

Imagine 60 mechanics working on a car: one is taking apart the transmission, one is rewiring the spark plugs, another is injecting nitrous, two more are boring out the cylinders, the other 55 are doing 55 other things, and Obama is sitting behind the wheel cranking the starter over and over again. Of course it's going to blow. A lot of it already has.

Except in reality it's infinitely worse than our car visualization, since we don't know what exactly it is we're operating on, and it's not as simple as a car.

Our civilization's epitath: Some meant well, but reasoned poorly. others meant ill, and were just as stupid. Ka-Boom!

Observe Natural Law & Laissez Faire, bitchez.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 04:24 | 2219345 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

If the US froze the Chinese accounts to prevent them from selling their treasuries, it would be like announcing to the world that the US will never let you cash anythng in to spend it.

The result would be an immediate dumping of all dollars, an amost instant destruction of the currency.

Rickards is fucking retarded.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 07:14 | 2219400 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

Rickards may simply be presenting the CIA line.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 07:32 | 2219407 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Ha, great point.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:15 | 2219972 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

China has already lightened up on treasuries with little more than trade jawboning as the consequence.

There is no need for drastic action like freezing an account. The Fed and Treasury already buy treasuries with digitally-printed dollars to cover treasury issues and redemptions that exceed market demand. 


Sat, 03/03/2012 - 10:28 | 2219523 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

What would the Chinese dump them for? Dollars? No, they will dump treasuries for real assets while they still can. That ia exactly what they are doing now.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:14 | 2218988 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

OK....who is China dumping these treasuries to? An alien? These two putzs arguing about that is asinine.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:36 | 2219033 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

China is swapping Treasurys for FIAT , then converting to Metals and Commodities. Look at the recent Yuan/usd appreciation.

  China isn't gifting Helocopter Ben.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:27 | 2220359 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

China is buying precious metals, mines, oil wells and farm land all over the world. This has been in every business publication for more than a year.

They stopped buying the 30 and 20 year treasuries. Then they stopped buying the 10 and 5. Then they only bought the 1 year and 6 month, more than a year ago they stopped buying US debt altogether. All the while cashing in the old ones as they matured and buying hard assets. Now they are no longer the #1 holder of US debt, they are #3 and shrinking.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 01:01 | 2219173 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



Rickards was countering that if China started dumping treasuries en masse the US had the ability to freeze their accounts and prevent them from doing so.

People need to understand America isn't the world bully anymore.

If China government accounts were frozen I suspect China might just retailiate in ways that would do great damage to America's financial system.

China's threats of dumping Treasuries might be why Bernanke stopped short of QE3.

But time will tell.

One thing is certain.  America keeps exporting inflation and other nations are gonna get tired of it at some point.  I'm surprised it hasn't happened already.

I also suspect when it does happen it'll happen quickly, like overnight.  Currency collapse tends to happen quickly.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 04:25 | 2219347 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture


Which is why I'll say again:

If the US froze the Chinese accounts to prevent them from selling their treasuries, it would be like announcing to the world that the US will never let you cash anythng in to spend it.

The result would be an immediate dumping of all dollars, an amost instant destruction of the currency.

Rickards is fucking retarded.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 12:29 | 2219642 infinity8
infinity8's picture

If you read his book, he clearly states that the Chinese will not "dump" USTs because they cannot due to the sheer greatness of the numbers and the mayhem that would ensue. He discusses how they can and probably will/are rotating into much shorter dated USTs.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 12:44 | 2219675 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

It has happened. But just at the little people level. That doesn't count.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 05:16 | 2219364 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

If U.S. freezes China accounts, China freezes the flow of their goods to the USA store shelves, essentials that we can't make ourselves anymore...or at least not at the prices we can pay for them.

They will show us who is really in charge now.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:01 | 2218850 victor82
victor82's picture

Hope and Change, Baby!

Everyone vote for His Oneness!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:04 | 2218852 victor82
victor82's picture

Bankster's Ball.

As opposed to "Secret Policemen's Ball".

Oh, wait...

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:03 | 2218854 TheObsoleteMan
TheObsoleteMan's picture

There is but one more rabbit that can be pulled out of their hat. Even now, they have it by the ears, ready any minute to whip it out: WAR. No, I am not talking these walk overs that the US and it's allies have been fighting for the last sixty five years, I am talking about a REAL one, as in WW3. A war of this scale would accomplish many of their goals. First, it would dramatically reduce the world's population, by as much as 2/3rds-less demand for commodities. As China would be certain to be involved, they could erase their indebtness to them. The best way to pay off your debts, is to kill the creditor. The only real question is how to limit the nuclear exchange that is inevitable. Theater nukes are a given. Pakistan, India, China, the Koreas and Japan would be toast. Russia is the wild card. Buy them off? Give them the green light to take back their former Warsaw Pact minions, minus Germany of course. Grant them other concessions as well. Hey, they signed a secret pact with Hitler back in 1939, just one week before Germany invaded Poland, so don't dismiss this as not possible.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:09 | 2218865 victor82
victor82's picture

Put nothing past the banksters and their Poodle in the White House. Or their GOP poodle, whichever they decide can get the job done for them.

A conflict with China would be protracted and would end after several years with both states exhausted and deep in debt to...the Banks.

However, the debt to the Chinese would be wiped out AND there would be a consumer-driven baby boom in both countries as soldiers returned from the Pacific to buy consumer goods and housing. Which would have to be financed by debt-peonage credit cards issued by...the Banks.

I wonder if Goldman has done a paper on this already? I'm sure the PBOC has.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 07:16 | 2219403 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

"The best way to pay off your debts, is to kill the creditor."


And what tribe acts as creditor to the rest of us?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 08:12 | 2219430 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Not to mention that by 2020, when a lot of this will play out, China is expected to have a 30 million male surplus that they will need to keep occupied with something. It will need to be a real mother of a nuclear war to stave off that onslaught, one that would unfortunately leave little of the US left to defend much less to live in.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:04 | 2218857 blindman
blindman's picture

what if the founding fathers looked for
better places to live when the existing
paradigm of the time was found wanting?
they could have traveled to new zealand too!
the thunder of it all ! $ 57.00 !!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:49 | 2218947 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

New Zealand is looking pretty good to me right now. I don't want to move anywhere but I'm getting pretty weary of making my life difficult  fighting against injustice and fraud where I see it. 45 out of my 65 years is enough time. I want to enjoy my later years if possible I'm just looking for an escape  I just need a little peace in my life.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:54 | 2218957 DosZap
DosZap's picture


New Zealand is looking pretty good to me right now

Well, you will be just in time.

They now have Mobile Euthanasia Units,yep, on wheels...............they come to you.Hope your loaded, NZ will never let you in if not.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 02:17 | 2219260 Tyranny is Love
Tyranny is Love's picture

Mobile Euthanasia Units,yep, on wheels


Total Bull Shit!


First Euthanasia is illegal in New Zealand. Secondly if you have skills or enough money (that you will invest in the country), or if your a refugee then its easy to emigrate to NZ. One of the head shed of Goldman Slaxs (Asia Division) just picked up a farm in a remote part of the country (for 1/2 price).


P.S. What does it mean when the PTB's minions are moving to the edge of the world AND asking about our firearms laws?


Also James Cameron just bought two farms in another part of New Zealand to 'move his family into' he wants them to grow up on a farm. I remember his first big film back in 1984 about mankind being almost exterminated by machines. Hunted down, put in camps and terminated. Great film I wounder who gave him the idea?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 20:39 | 2220580 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

the (big) monied almost always shit their nest and then seek pristine for their "families" - they're speshul, dontcha know!  that many of the monied are heading for the southern hemisphere is a sign o' the times - but it's really just a way to eek out their wealthy status a bit longer, find a cheap place where they can maintain their illusion of speshul, over the "3rd world" populations, giving them someone to look down on.

NZ is a beautiful country with some very cool, creative people - and a back story that includes overtaking a native peoples in the name of "missionary" and "crown" influences they are still coming to terms with. . .

hopefully they still take out the trash.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:43 | 2219044 falun bong
falun bong's picture

I thought the same thing when I left the US in 2005 (ahead of the curve). I lived there for 9 months and decided it was beautiful and peaceful but way too rainy, way too quiet, and way too isolated. So we moved to Australia. It's not perfect but it's damned close.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 08:14 | 2219431 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Typical American ... Can't be left alone with your own thoughts for more that 5 minutes.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 10:02 | 2219507 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i'm pretty sure i made it to six minutes just yesterday.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:44 | 2219046 blindman
blindman's picture

you can find that peace, not just a little but
all of it and use it in silence or in word to accomplish
that victory you spent those years in fighting.
best to you, you are not alone unless you need to be.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 00:21 | 2219102 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

That was a very eloquent reply to someone who could use the peace.  Very nice.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:06 | 2218860 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

roost schmoost

Bansters won - Populace zero



Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:02 | 2218969 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

don't get behind the wheel tonite!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:16 | 2218879 CuriousPasserby
CuriousPasserby's picture

Didn't they just figure out how to extract another 100 years of oil? And 500 years of gas which can replace oli for some uses? Peak oil is so 1970s.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 09:28 | 2219473 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

yes they did. it's called fracking. you see what we're going to do is since it cost too much to pump it out of the ground, just giong to build futur cities 2 miles under the fracking ground


Sat, 03/03/2012 - 10:05 | 2219509 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Put on a sweater and eat your peas!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:20 | 2218887 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

You are spot on, spot on. 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:22 | 2218890 Pumpkin
Pumpkin's picture

as an example, he cites a $57 chicken pot pie from the menu at a 'working class' restaurant in Australia).


WTF ever!  I have to call BS on that!  If that were the case, Sidney would be on fire!!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:33 | 2218918 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

He neglected to mention it was at the strip club at the Airport after the kitchen had closed.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 22:45 | 2218939 Praetor
Praetor's picture

Agreed. A chicken schnitzel costs ~$22 at a working man's restaurant, a chicken pot pie even less. Either he was quoting a price from a one star Michellin restaurant, the only kitchen at a mining town or misplaced the decimal point in the price.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 23:07 | 2218980 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Same feeling here Pumpkin!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 02:47 | 2219289 TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

Could be just a lunch wagon outside of a Western Australia mine.  Unskilled and unemployed were being offered $5k bonus to move to WA.  Average salary $90k.  I've heard it's a rednecks paradise over there and a great market to sell $50k trucks to the new fingernail-dirty rich.



Sat, 03/03/2012 - 02:53 | 2219296 Nassim
Nassim's picture

Here, in the real world of Melbourne, you get a complete delicious roasted chicken from Coles for A$10 (U$10.70). I just ordered 24 bottles of Coonawarra Cabernet Sauvignon for around A$140 - it was a 2-for-1 deal. The rent I pay is the same as 2 years ago. I expect house prices to drop another 5% this year. I could go on.

Just in case you have not noticed, we are in monetary deflation - even in Australia. 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 08:41 | 2219443 rats
rats's picture

I have just moved from Fiji to Australia. To show the difference between Fiji and Australia I tell them how my son's weekly salary is nearly 14 times that of his cousin or how we have free medical or how we are given the amount of average salary from government for just looking after my two other boys.

But that is not what shocks them what shocks them is the comment that I can get five number 12 chickens for ten dollars. This place is five minute drive from my house.  I have not seen a 57 dollar chicken pie as most pies from pie shops are less then five dollars.

My experience is that you can pay for expensive items or cheap ones it just depends on your perception of quality of goods and funds available. i.e 1 dollar bread compared to four dollar bread.

I have told my family, that when it hits the fan we will have to go back to Fiji and its interesting to me that a lot of people know that something is wrong but are not preparing for it. I don't know anyone else that is collecting either physical silver and gold.

This brings me to an event a few years ago that may relate to the current events. In fiji some of us are a bit superstitious. About two years ago a minister prophesized that they would be a major natural event which made a significant number of us worried. I am sure a lot of people I worked with actually believed it. This was to happen in a few months then on the day that it was to happen, nearly all the people in my Office didnt turn up to work on that day and then next day came back to work. What amazed me was how everyone who thought something would happen worked normally up to the expected of when it was to occur. There was some shortages in emergency gear at shops but nothing to extreme.

I see that around me here in Australia that a significant number of people know that something bad is about to happen but they are just actually just working normally until the event happens.



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