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ES Drops To November 2010 Swing Levels; Next Support 1155, After That: Jackson Hole 2

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For months we have been warning that the only thing that can allow QE3 to proceed is a 25% drop in the S&P. Of course, algos and their idiot Ph.D. creators would force the robots to gobble up every drop due to beyond inane mean reversion and BTFD triggers. Well, today that realization is finally dawning (as hundreds of 19 year old quants suddenly find themselves out of a job). As the chart below shows, however, the market still has a long way to go to the downside, so for all those buying here and the market will promptly soar on hopes QE3, disappointment seems guaranteed. In the meantime technicals still rule, with the ES now at November 2010 swing highs, which will likely be taken out soon, and will tumble to the December swing lows, just above 1150, after which it is rough sailing down to the 1000 level of Jackson Hole at which point the market will be begging for QE3. Of course, all this assumes that Bank of America does not blow up in the meantime, as everyone has been warning. With its CDS 18 bps wide to just under 200 bps today, unlike Ben Bernanke, we certainly can not promise that.

 

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Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:28 | 1524176 GhostTrader
GhostTrader's picture

Don't yell 'fire!' in a crowded market!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 13:04 | 1524246 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Euro Union Is DOA ...

USA: Qe3 or Bust (Depression) ...

Simple Enough.?.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 13:05 | 1524247 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Euro Union Is DOA ...

USA: Qe3 or Bust (Depression) ...

Simple Enough.?.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 15:03 | 1524387 eureka
eureka's picture

U.S. Fedration is a stinking rotten corpse - U.S. riots, U.S. civil war and U.S. break up in 3,2,1....

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:29 | 1524177 Stuart
Stuart's picture

strong correlation to stock market performance and consumer confidence.  The fed closely monitors consumer confidence for it considers it key to economic recovery... ergo....

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:01 | 1524263 trav7777
trav7777's picture

well, this /ES chart is fuckin ugly

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:36 | 1524185 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

Biggs! Biggs!  Where the hell is BIGGS?????

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:37 | 1524188 alter ego
alter ego's picture

No Q3 no more.

That will be the nail in the US Dollar"s coffin.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:37 | 1524189 alter ego
alter ego's picture

No Q3 no more.

That will be the nail in the US Dollar"s coffin.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:39 | 1524195 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Global Ponzi Casino going haywire. Again.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:39 | 1524197 Robslob
Robslob's picture

How many nails can a good coffin take for christ's sake?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:06 | 1525216 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yo, you want the zombie to get out and go brainz-munchin' or sumptin?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:39 | 1524198 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Dollar's up substantially today.  C.R.E.A.M

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:54 | 1524231 ocmsrzr
ocmsrzr's picture

dolla dolla bills ya'll

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:41 | 1524201 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

BAC at $9.11 last look, isn't that below the Paulson buy-in?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:47 | 1524208 OnTheWaterfront
OnTheWaterfront's picture

get your DOW 11K hats out bitchz

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:47 | 1524209 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture

BAC $9.11 the irony...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:47 | 1524210 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

There will be some sort of fucking ridiculous 'rally' into the close.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:48 | 1524214 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Error 503: Service Unavailable, Bitchez

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:07 | 1525220 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

DON'T cross the data streams...Arrgghh!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:48 | 1524216 oogs66
oogs66's picture

they are trying to rally it...blaming weakness on european accounts and starting to hype qe3

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:48 | 1524218 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Mini Moloch anxiously awaits Jackson Hole.

BTFDers are about to be sacrificed to Moloch by BananasBernankincide.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:50 | 1524221 narnia
narnia's picture

the crash & deteriorating conditions & expectations are going to be used to sell fiscal stimulus.  

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:51 | 1524225 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Dark Cross + 2 Hindenburgs (tossed in for 'effect') + frontrunning Jackson Hole = QE'n'...

Click here to have the formula expresse as a mathematical equation (to impress chicks at bars)...

http://www.topshareware.com/microsoft-equation-3.0/downloads/1.htm

 

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 21:07 | 1525226 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Ooo, I like a guy with big...lobes! LOL!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:52 | 1524226 Gold Man-Sacks
Gold Man-Sacks's picture

What specifically is wrong with B of A?  I mean, why is it any worse than the other TBTF bansksters?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:02 | 1524264 Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

They are based in Charlotte not NYC, that is what is wrong.  All TBTF are equal, some are just less equal than others.

That and they bought Countrywide.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 18:23 | 1524349 narnia
narnia's picture

the real marked to market balance sheets for the TBTF banks would indeed have ZEROs on each of their respective equity lines, but some have contra-liability accounts titled "guaranteed by the FDIC" greater than others.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:52 | 1524227 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Why all this BS doom and gloom? Do you have balls to
short? Short then. While Markets are drop only about 10%, some stocks are near 2008 years low and offers
high reward opp, for those, who selling high and buying low, Only Idiots are selling while Market is down 300 points, complete morons. Nothing goes down in the straight line, Market will test 200 MA resistance soon,
then you can short.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 15:06 | 1524228 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture

The controlled demo of BAC is all in the plan. TPTB made sure they had a fall back plan to finish the raping and pillaging of 'merika when they forced that whore cunt tree wide (from being gang banged so many times by mozillo and the feds) on BAC. TPTB (fed, timmay the tax evader, debt brotha, CONgress, and house of morgue/gs) all figured what if the plan doesn't work? We have to have a back up plan. The collapse of BAC provides the cover for unlimited debt ceiling hikes, unlimited printing, unlimited emergency powers, and loss of liberty to the masses all under the guise of saving the morgueage market due to BAC's exposure, not to mention their heavy exposure to merrill lynch, et al. Spot prices of PMs will be an ongoing joke as manipulation kicks in again. The premium on physical delivery will be astronomically high if physical PMs are even available at all. I think that a BAC collapse was a contingincey all along and TPTB stacked enough of their cronies inside to get the job done when it needs to be done.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:53 | 1524229 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

How's Bill Gross' short position?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 12:57 | 1524243 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Looks like a heroin addict crying for a fix.   Rolling in pain.   Intravenous QE3 needed fast!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 13:18 | 1524250 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I dance to Lotus Flower when the elite who meet to greet and beat play these games (they're predictable in direction, if not specifics):

Radiohead - Lotus Flower? - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfOa1a8hYP8

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 13:18 | 1524251 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I dance to Lotus Flower when the elite who meet to greet and beat play these games (they're predictable in direction, if not specifics):

Radiohead - Lotus Flower? - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfOa1a8hYP8

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 13:49 | 1524252 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Does zerohedge still have an IRC server or even a channel somewhere?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 13:51 | 1524253 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Tyler, you got anymore of those Dow 10,000 hats in stock?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 13:51 | 1524254 iamse7en
iamse7en's picture

Hey, I'm just about one of those 19 year olds without a job, but a tad older. Be nice to me please. Ponzinomics is making life really difficult for me.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 13:59 | 1524258 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

What the hell is Sacrilege DOING in the server room ??

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 13:59 | 1524259 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Funny how Euro tracked stocks for 2 1/2 yrs, now they have it tracking Gold and silver.....this tells me they want a gold and silver crash as the Euro plunges......dollar looks like it will be taking lead again..stocks are toast

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 13:59 | 1524260 JohnG
JohnG's picture

VIX up almost 20% wow!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:13 | 1524265 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Well. Looks like maybe another leg down in the S&P before the close. Brutal.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:15 | 1524268 eurusdog
eurusdog's picture

Does anyone else get sick to their stomach when Cramer comes on starts running his clap trap?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:29 | 1524301 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

DAMN!!!!!

I hear Johnny Cash singing AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!

WallStreet is a burning thing
And it makes a fiery ring
Bound by your wild desire
WallStreet fell into a ring of fire

WallStreet fell into a burning ring of fire
WallStreet went DOWn, DOWn, DOWn
And the flames went higher

WallStreet fell into a burning ring of fire
WallStreet went DOWn, DOWn, DOWn
And the flames got higher
And it burns, ooh it burns

https://www.gunsgrubandgold.com/forum

 

Soon, it will be the ending song for Dawn of the Dead... HAHAHAHAHAHA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0JBlUm2KMY&feature=player_embedded

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:29 | 1524308 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

down goes frazier, down goes frazier....

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:32 | 1524312 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

"....on hopes QE3, disappointment seems guaranteed."  Indeed.

As readers of fairy tales know, the number 3 is a very powerful magical number (but not always in a good way).  3 witches, 3 wishes, 3 evil step sisters, 3 little pigs...  It appears to me that QE3 will simply complete the madness.  Nothing good shall come of it.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:37 | 1524321 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

"....on hopes QE3, disappointment seems guaranteed."  Indeed.

As readers of fairy tales know, the number 3 is a very powerful magical number (but not always in a good way).  3 witches, 3 wishes, 3 evil step sisters, 3 little pigs...  It appears to me that QE3 will simply complete the madness.  Nothing good shall come of it.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:42 | 1524335 kaiten
kaiten's picture

Not only the market. Also the White House, republicans, media, public ... simply everyone will be begging Benicopter to start the printing. And he will, gladly. That´s the plan, from the very beggining, and now well underway. Just look at the panic all around.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 15:08 | 1524400 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture

Yeah but expanding the debt of the nation and unlimited printing can be more justified by TPTB with a BAC collapse.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:46 | 1667390 chinawholesaler
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