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ES Futures Retest Overnight Lows as European Credit Opens Ugly

Tyler Durden's picture




 

After a brief push back above Friday's lows, ES is back down to the early overnight lows (-17pts) just in time for the opening of Europe. Early runs on ITRX Main show +10bps at 198/200bps, XOver breaking 800bps (+35bps), and SovX +23bps to 333bps - not pretty (and worse than simply catch up to late Friday's demise). Financials continue to bear the brunt but non-financials are getting dragged out now more and more.

 

Gold and Silver are leaking sideways to lower but WTI futures have already broken below Friday's lows (as has copper). TSYs are 2-3bps lower in yield (and 2s10s30s is 2-3bps lower). The risk-basket CONTEXT implies around 1129 (with ES at 1126 for now) but things are moving fast as the JPY crosses are very jumpy. All-in-all, what Mr. Trichet we are sure would describe as stability.

 

UPDATE: 2Y EU Soverigns are generally leaking higher in yield (ITA +20bps, IRE +7bps, ESP +6bps, FRA +4bps, GER unch). PTE 2Y -33bps and GRE -98bps - but these are trading on price not yield at this point and are gappy as anything.

 

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Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:40 | 1658673 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

You're up late. Not looking good for the week. Hope reality catches up with insanity.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:43 | 1658678 been there done that
been there done that's picture

you beat me by 1 second to my first ever FIRST ZH post! and I didn't even say "BITCHEZ" anywhere!

 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:47 | 1658686 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Lol.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:54 | 1658696 Michael
Michael's picture

People please. What you will see in the near term coming days in the markets is not the big one. You will have to wait till next month for that.

Who were the last men in Congress who coined money for the US and regulated the value thereof before 1913 according to;

Article 1 - The Legislative Branch
Section 8 - Powers of Congress

http://www.usconstitution.net/xconst_A1Sec8.html

I want names.

Bueller, Bueller? Anyone?

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:02 | 1658711 been there done that
been there done that's picture

when the SP500 neckline of 1140 goes, it's 5th down time.... then yes, possible wave 2, then again, maybe we are on the verge of a BIG 3..... EW analysis by itself is not much good but it is at least a framework and a good point of reference. It seems to work better when there is emotion in the MKT and worse when the vix is way low and manilpulated. I've been kicking someone's ass lately nailing tops and bottoms. WHO is the sucker that has been writing be calls on levered bear ETFs??? hopefully some dim wit at a TBTF bank.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:12 | 1658718 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Only minutes after the open and DAX is down over 4%.

Is there a european FAZ?

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:55 | 1658752 DarkStarDog
DarkStarDog's picture

EH

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 06:04 | 1658793 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

 

 

Initial reaction- 

 

1)Sell everything

                         

 2) buy treasuries (safe Haven-yeah right)

                          

3) Panic and buy gold and silver

                          

4) Risk on, buy stocks (because they said so-Everyone's doing it! Again!)

                          

5)  Start again at 1..

 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:24 | 1658720 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Everyone will genuinely laugh at this front page article in the brilliant (/sarc) New York Times (home of the Paul 'Hither Thy Aliens' Krugman), where the on-top-of-things journalists have written an article that suggests the markets have become "erratic" and that this "new development" is causing alarm (I wonder if anyone has clued them in on HFT, dark pools, leverage, colocation, or the many ways by which The Bernank has broken all global markets?):

 

Market Swings Are Becoming New Standard
  • By LOUISE STORY and GRAHAM BOWLEY (with the sage counsel of Wall Street's Favorite Puppet Journalist - Mr. Andrew Ross-Sorkin)
THE NEW YORK TIMES (aka We Depend on Wall Street & Manhattan & All The Taxpayer Transfer Payments Received by The Privileged Constituents of Chuck Schumer For The Bulk of Our Useless, Parasitic Reader Base)

Recent stock fluctuations have caused experts to ask whether there are new forces at work in the market that make trading permanently more erratic.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:26 | 1658737 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I think they actually believe that people are "normalized" and can be "normalized".

I'm as crazy as a fucking rat in a bird cage. Something didn't work.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 06:17 | 1658808 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I like you. You're in charge now.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:32 | 1658741 Michael
Michael's picture

We Depend on Wall Street & Manhattan & All The Taxpayer Transfer Payments Received by The Privileged Constituents of Chuck Schumer For The Bulk of Our Useless, Parasitic Reader Base

And that sums up the entire federal government as well.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:41 | 1658676 been there done that
been there done that's picture

I held short over the weekend.... a total no respect move. Glad I did!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:44 | 1658681 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I did too, but felt uneasy with the big drop Friday because something usually makes the markets go full retard into Monday open.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:44 | 1658680 Who is John Galt
Who is John Galt's picture

I not only held short, I went all in on Thursday. I hope this is finally it!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:45 | 1658682 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

and DAX will "test" 5000 today.. FUT already bumping below 5030.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:25 | 1658735 chump666
chump666's picture

There is a short there...the DAX, mini futures overkill why?  The German's can't print, they hate inflation...y'know 1920's and all that.  So equities will be slaughtered in Germany, same in France.

The markets in Europe are about to get a major beatdown.  ECB can't do sh*t now. 

 

 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:46 | 1658684 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

will srs ever trade in the hundreds again?  seems appealing as the opposite of the institutional gold/silver play: tptb have supported real estate prices at an artificial level (as they have depressed p.m. prices) versus fundamentals, which are deteriorating.  thus one might get a bigger bang as the institutional effect unwinding supercharges the changing fundamentals.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:51 | 1658692 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Leveraged ETFs are tough, unless you're on top of them every day in and out stay away. The decay is massive, but if you catch the up or down draft right they're quite sweet.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:57 | 1658699 Who is John Galt
Who is John Galt's picture

I only play the markets with my IRA money, so I have no margin account. ETFs are my only choice to go short.

I am already ahead on these bets, and will liquidate at least half in the next day or 2 to lock in some gains.

All my real assets are in PMs and land, this is my casino money.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:10 | 1658717 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

You can still use options in an ira, use the Greeks and manage some risk better.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:18 | 1658724 Who is John Galt
Who is John Galt's picture

Thank you for the advice, however my etrade account isn't setup to allow me to trade options in my IRA. I will be exchanging half of my shorts to PHYS in the morning to take some winnings off the table. I will let the FAZ ride for a few more days, perhaps until Friday, then its all back into PHYS.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:34 | 1658745 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Np. It's easy to set them up. But lots of risk esp. If you're not up on them. Options would allow you to manage risk better, hedge positions, go long or short with less cap. outlay.

If you're playing risky x3 etfs why lay tie up the cap. when you're just trading in and out anyway.

Just be careful with faz, that's been a widow maker.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:58 | 1658704 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

FAZ

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:48 | 1658687 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Have fun out there maurading. I hear all of you gunning your engines from over here in the central time zone, USA. Fuck em up!!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:57 | 1658701 Michael
Michael's picture

You ain't seen nothing yet kiddo.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:50 | 1658691 Who is John Galt
Who is John Galt's picture

Gold is getting hit too. Hoping to turn my FAZ, EPV, and SKF around to PHYS if I can catch the right "2008" style moment. Wish me luck.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:59 | 1658707 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

+1... FAZ and PHYS are my only holdings currently.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:59 | 1658708 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Biotch, I'm JG. And if you have any brains, you're heding like a MF now...

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:00 | 1658710 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

PHYS has been very good to me.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:06 | 1658702 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

RoboTarder, who has a merry tag-a-long flock of sheeplefauxtrading lemmings praising his mad skills (an apparently new development), has ridden the Nikkei down from 40,000 to the present 8,700, and he and his tag-a-longs are puking up blood.

RoboTranny also went ultra-leverage long on U.S. equities in late 1999, ultra-leverage short U.S. equities in mid-2000, ultra-leverage long U.S. equities in August of 2001, ultra-leverage short on U.S. equities in 2003, ultra-leverage long U.S. equities in late 2007, ultra-leverage short U.S. equities in May of 2009, and RoboTranny now claims he's currently short on down days and long on days that pop.

He's also long and/or short paper and/or physical gold and/or long and/or short mining stocks after the fact, depending upon how it/they perform.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:24 | 1658733 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I don't usually agree with robo, but he doesn't claim that the up moves makes sense he just goes with it.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:59 | 1658706 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Dang, Glad to see I"m not the only insane person watching the crazy crash overnight...good work TD!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:02 | 1658712 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

f me...look at the Hang Seng..boom bitoeches

 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:05 | 1658714 Who is John Galt
Who is John Galt's picture

NICE!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:15 | 1658721 chump666
chump666's picture

Copper lows when you see moves like this.  AUD broke the 1.03 handle. 

bad Sh*t.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:16 | 1658723 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

FROGGY BANKS in total freefall now...down 9% plus

HOLY FLIRKINGSCHMIDT!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:18 | 1658725 Minoan
Minoan's picture

Societe Generale anyone?

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:18 | 1658727 Who is John Galt
Who is John Galt's picture

EPV is a European double short...

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:23 | 1658731 mt paul
mt paul's picture

ribbit...

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:27 | 1658732 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I want to see the Eurozone burn for the same reasons I oppose the highly planned and soon to be rolled out 'New World Order.' and not just because I enjoy seeing things burn.

The NWO is the handiwork of Satanic forces, and the Eurozone was the trial balloon that should convince anyone who harbored any skepticism that suck skepticism was well-founded.

I Germans are forced to bail out the toxic cradle-to-grave, GDP=50% government workers, we-retire-with-full-pensions-at-age-48 nation states that surround them in the EU, they and their children will be facing a situation much like pre-WWII, whereby war reparations broke their means to live anything remotely approaching a dignified existence (this opening the door for some radicalism that led to some very tragic global events).

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:30 | 1658740 Who is John Galt
Who is John Galt's picture

I want to see the whole NWO go down! We can start with the ROT SHIELDS, and work our way over to the USA for some 1776 action!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:39 | 1658747 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

I signed in T.I.S., just to give you a thumbs up....

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 06:25 | 1658818 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Tragic indeed! Now say hi to Washington DC. You know: the guys you called a "banana republic with nukes."

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:33 | 1658744 Minoan
Minoan's picture

Breaking:Tomorrow's issue of 3 month bills is suspended for a week in Greece.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:49 | 1658750 DarkStarDog
DarkStarDog's picture

BURN MUDDERPHUCKER BURN. !!!!!!!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 04:00 | 1658756 Sambo
Sambo's picture

Sept 15th 2008 Lehman filed Chapter 11 Dow fell -4.5% on that day...and exactly three years later....will it be BAC?

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 04:12 | 1658758 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

If the dollar becomes worthless, what difference will it make how high the stock market goes?  Won't that paper stuff be worthless as well, or will it be quoted in Ameros or something else?

If the currency crashes, will the rich people still be rich?

Just how broke do you have to be to be considered broke?

Just wondering.....

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 04:41 | 1658769 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

The main difference between the rich and poor is that the latter don't tend to own warehouses full of food, fuel and commodities. Fiat at zero is no more worthless than it's ever been. It's value has always been in what you could acquire by using it as a medium of exchange. Most of the acquiring is now done; a couple of thousand people have all the world's real wealth, the rest of us have iPads (actually, I don't, but...) and widescreen TVs. Oh, and LOTS of paper debt, with it's collection enforced at gunpoint.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 06:28 | 1658823 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

Now there's a job some will like. Dept collector willing to us a gun to collect it. Any of you realy men up to that?

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 04:20 | 1658759 tallen
tallen's picture

Greece 1 Year yield now at 108%, DEFAULT BITCHEZ

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 04:41 | 1658767 Who is John Galt
Who is John Galt's picture

What I don't understand is how this could NOT end in default at this point?

But, I am sure that if TPTB don't want a default to happen they will do something to manipulate things. nothing surprises me any more.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 08:56 | 1659128 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

RE-DO!!!

RULE CHANGE!!!

Cause I said so...(I don't like the score card so I can do that, right?).

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 04:37 | 1658766 Racer
Racer's picture

Don't worry the PPT gang will magically appear to push them back up again

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 05:03 | 1658774 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

...careful people...there are souls goin get burnt if they are too short on this move...just be careful. This is not the BIG one

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 05:32 | 1658782 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

You should see the CNBC fools, they look like deer in headlights. Dumbest answers to the most basic questions, such as, "how does Greece avoid default."

It's obvious that not even the airheads in skirts believe their bullshit.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 06:28 | 1658824 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

ESFS front and center. Greek default means that thing goes bye-bye.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 22:03 | 1666001 moxia19
moxia19's picture

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