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ES Opens -1% As Oil, Gold, And FX Carry Leak Lower

Tyler Durden's picture


While EURUSD had managed to clamber back into the green from a modest 25pip drop (bouncing off 1.3500), carry crosses (most specifically AUDJPY) are ebbing lower and Oil and Gold's soft opening is dragging equity futures to a dismal start. ES opened -13pts (around 1%), below its 50DMA (first time since 10/10) and at its lowest in over a month. With TSYs not open yet, ES is mildly lower than CONTEXT but we would expect the implicit shift in 2s10s30s to sync up with equity derisking.

UPDATE: ES 1201 seemed to spur some serious volume for the overnight session.



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Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:19 | 1896765 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Glad I have a few hundred calls on SDS :)

Its "transitory" that I'm exiting the paper market and acquiring physical... definately won't last forever, right?

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:06 | 1897135 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

I too strapped on my brass balls and held my SDS options over the weekend. I am gettign that tingly feeling in my toes just like when the roller coaster starts down that first big drop. Good times.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 22:19 | 1897305 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

So can anybody who's good at the technicals say where the support levels are? I'm not great at this but I don't see anything but Fibonaccis for a long way down.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 23:44 | 1897499 Napoleon
Napoleon's picture


Sun, 11/20/2011 - 23:50 | 1897509 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Always a magic number

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 00:10 | 1897546 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

one of the ones I trust for market direction...

nobody can call it right all of the time but AT seems to be on the right side of the fence most of the time.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 14:37 | 1899395 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

next support in S&P would be somewhere around 1115ish, and breaking through 1100, would be bearish. However I would guess that the move will take a break around 1100, either just above or below it unless things really crash.  I don't think we are going to spend much more time around the 1200 level, but it might be possible for it to go back up to 1200 on light volume perhaps, then reverse.  If the ECB steps up and prints all of this goes right out the window.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:18 | 1896766 Yamaha
Yamaha's picture


Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:19 | 1896767 SHEEPFUKKER

No debt reduction and gold tanks on the open.  Yeah, that makes sense. 

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:25 | 1896794 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Day to day movements now seem to be nothing but a loud noise.  This sure feels like batten down the hatch times.  Do the things you need to do and then try to feel comfortable.  Even that might not save you but it increases your odds. 

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:37 | 1896830 Darth..Putter
Darth..Putter's picture

That paper price should be more firm?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 08:04 | 1897902 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Wrong!  Think in reverse if you want to understand this Ponzi scheme.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:57 | 1897099 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Europe is a more immediate concern and all signs point to deflation.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 23:49 | 1897508 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Thats bullshit

The Euro is its own bloc. If deflation was to exist then the Euro would rise. No debtor natons currency has risen in value as its economy imploded.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:31 | 1897185 philipat
philipat's picture

Gold is being manipulated again by CB's via PD' the thin volumes of the overnight trade, where there is more bang for their fiat buck. Imagine if the demand for Dollars were to collapse and the Chinese instead store reserves in Gold?

Incidentally, not that I am a fan of the Euro, but 1.35 is actually at PPP.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 07:58 | 1897899 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

The whole country makes no sense.  Paper Gold is liquidating because no one wants Gold, they want paper US dollars. lol!!

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:19 | 1896772 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks like the record-breaking run in U.S. Treasuries is going to continue.

The "Mad Panic" into bonds is getting pretty crazy.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:23 | 1896785 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

The demand will stay because the U.S. is the strongest country in the world.  Europe should take a hint from the U.S. and fund their banks.  If they did, it would mean politicians could focus on unemployment instead of fiscal policy, which they know nothing about.  All the talk of austerity is crazy in this environment of mild inflation.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:31 | 1896804 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

Sorry, Paul, I'm not going to listen to your advice again until you at least start picking your dog's crap up off my lawn.


And have a nice jog.


Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:33 | 1896810 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

He doesn't own a dog. 

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:36 | 1896828 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

It's true.  I'm a cat person.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:55 | 1896902 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

I like cats too!


Anyway, what happens "hypothetically speaking" if/when we aren't the strongest in the world?

I would assume the dynamics change a lot.

Is the United States Federal Reserve Note still have perceived value?

Do we still stand free of corruption?

Are strong in defense or do we lash out like a child?

Are we monetarily conservative or do we spend other people's money?

Are we still the free?



Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:02 | 1896939 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

We will be free as long as Republicans do not cut spending.  If we cut spending then we will have no defense, no jobs, nothing.  As far as corruption goes, politicians will sell their books.  This is why politicians should stay out of monetary and fiscal policy.  This is why the Federal Reserve, and other central banks like the ECB, should do the right thing and generate more spending by printing more money.

And the note will always have value.  What will replace it?  The renminbi?

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:06 | 1896954 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

Okay, stop... not funny, this is just disinformation now.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:41 | 1897046 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Dr Paul Krugman

Here we go again, we are SO in Debt, we need to spend more, so we owe more debt, to get us out of debt.

Sounds just like an Obama Cabinet Member.

No defense?.

Your shitting me?, we do not need to have  one soldier off the mainland to destroy the world 1000x's over, but we cant defend ourselves?.

We are a nation of 300 million plus ( over 80 million) weapons owners, and we are packing heat by the millions, and we know how to usethem IN A BIG way,but we cannot protect ourselves?????.

Left wing liberal horseshit if ever I read it.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:15 | 1897117 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

I think we could reduce military spending, but not overnight.  Bush got us into the wars overseas, and Obama is getting us out, albeit slowly, but he is.  If we pulled out at once it could destabolize the middle east and worsen the problem.

We are in debt but think about the percentage of debt to the additional debt.  We need to increase spending, and what better way to do that than by issuing some dollars that we can use to rebuild ourselves?  Spending one trillion dollars at this point is nothing, and if we had spent more in the first place, then we would not be in this situation.  We would have lower unemployment because we would have created more jobs.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:20 | 1897165 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

> Spending one trillion dollars at this point is nothing, and if we had spent more in

> the first place, then we would not be in this situation.

Somebody's fulla shit!

A Trillion anything is a whole shitload of something - so large, in fact, that you have to use something as small as seconds to grasp the enormity of a single Trillion - and we've racked up 15 of the fuckers with more on the way:

A million seconds is 13 days.
A billion seconds is 31 years.
A trillion seconds is 31,688 years.

A million minutes ago was – 1 year, 329 days, 10 hours and 40 minutes ago.
A billion minutes ago was just after the time of Christ.

A million hours ago was in 1885.
A billion hours ago man had not yet walked on earth.

A million dollars ago was five (5) seconds ago at the U.S. Treasury.
A billion dollars ago was late yesterday afternoon at the U.S. Treasury.

A trillion dollars is so large a number that only politicians
can use the term in conversation… probably because they
seldom think about what they are really saying. I’ve read that
mathematicians do not even use the term trillion!
Here is some perspective on TRILLION:

Trillion = 1,000,000,000,000.
Western civilization has not been around a trillion seconds.
One trillion seconds ago – 31,688 years – Neanderthals stalked the plains of Europe.


Consider that most folks only earn a few thousand d0llars a year... a number too small to be in the above example.

And... your trolling style sucks. It's not even humorous.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:37 | 1897208 Stumpy
Stumpy's picture

Nice numbers. Now divide your time results by 7 billion.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:41 | 1897220 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Economics is a science of percentages.  Income has increased X amount, so spending has increased X amount, no big deal.  Increase spending by another few trillion, and in terms of the quadrillions of dollars, the percentage increase is miniscule.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 22:45 | 1897362 Vagabond
Vagabond's picture

That game only works in a world where infinite growth is possible.  Quit snorting pixie dust.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 23:56 | 1897525 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Keynesianism is economic wtchcraft.

If anything you said was right, then why did Paul Volker raise interest rates to SAVE the dollar in the 80's ?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 00:27 | 1897563 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Inflation is under 4% right now.  Why did Volcker raise rates?  Because inflation was much much higher then.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 02:39 | 1897751 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture


nixon imposed price controls at........drum roll please... 4% inflation.


Mon, 11/21/2011 - 01:05 | 1897646 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

If we pulled out at once it could destabolize the middle east and worsen the problem.

MiddleEast stability?  Show it to me... Bwahahahaha!

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:42 | 1897052 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Million_Dollar_Bonus is that you?

you old dog you...messin with all the kids like the pedophile we all know you are...

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:37 | 1896815 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Yes. But you do not sound like Paul Krugman. Prove it to us by posting "die rebel scum!" three times while changing your avatar to an imperial storm trooper.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:40 | 1896841 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

You are upset that my methods have been proven correct?

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:46 | 1896866 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I'm easier to convince if you say "if only you knew the power of the dark side." I never understood the whole "no I don't want to rule the galaxy as father and son" thing.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:04 | 1896947 chump666
chump666's picture

Well you are good at creating volatility in the market, ensuring that bond spreads are dysfunctional on moral hazard expectations.  In summary Keynesian voodoo will doom us all, major point being that oil at 90+ should take out China/France and Germany...

The only economic theory that I follow is "Sh*t happens"

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:19 | 1896975 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

There would not be dysfunctional spreads if Europe nationalized their banking system!  Look at the U.S.  We bailed out the banks, and so our bond prices remain high.  We created demand, and so could Europe if they did the right thing and funded their debt obligations.

High oil prices are transitory.  Besides, the prices are high on new foreign demand from emerging markets, as well as increased demand in developed nations. 

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:07 | 1897133 chump666
chump666's picture

I see your point.  But you better hope that China/Asia still like their interest paid in a depreciating USD.  Otherwise the bonds will be junk and you'll get a steady, but persistent sell off - which is happening now. 

Re: the bond market being broken, well everyone is now reliant on the ECB to pump liquidity into the markets, narrow spreads etc.  Y'know 100% that inflation will follow very, very quickly.  The oil price is a very good hedge against the soon-to-be-pointless EUR and the USD.  Oil buying has started pre-winter, and on EUR hedges (bond market broke).

Also on Asia, that is the worry, they go into a major slowdown (China) all hedges will be taken out i.e commodities, what may be cyclical demand will become a bid-less market...a devastating wipe-out for the world.

Check the iron ore price.  China's 2008 stimulus 'program' is going to implode

The market needs a flush out and pain is part of that, as I have said, take the pain now then later (or it gets worst).  Be stronger for it.  

No one should be bailed out.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:14 | 1897152 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

I will admit that China has been in the commodities market, so if they go out then what happens?  Prices fall.  So if China decreases demand, which it sounds lile you think will happen, then this is deflationary.  So Europe spends more money fixing their debt obligations, they strengthen their bond market, and this creates prosperity.  Then commodities find equilibrium.  I don't understand what is so hard about understanding this.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:29 | 1897180 chump666
chump666's picture

Dude I just trade in the markets.  I see chaos, that's all. There will be no equilibrium.  Just the end of a liquidity/money printing cycle. Go to Europe, go to LA, NYC, Oakland all these protests are based on the idea that everyone got gamed with   the 'spending' i.e it's helped nothing except the major players.

The debt markets will collapse eventually once the sovereigns cannot raise funds.  We can see this right now with Euro bonds, EFSF fund etc. 

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:38 | 1897204 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

OWS is concerned with the fact that not enough was been done to help the middle class.  We could help the middle class if we taxed the rich and increased government spending.  The bond market is primarily the U.S. market, which is fine.  Europe is having difficulties, so they need to learn from us and nationalize their banks.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 00:02 | 1897535 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

You are clueless

The only reason the US debt market is strong is because the US freindly world (japan S Korea, oil states)is not ready to axe the US military yet. They are working on it though. They have no choice.  Still, its funny that the Fed ended up being the worlds largest holder of the debt just to fill in some cracks along the way.

It has less then nothing to do with fundamentals, spending or any bullshit that a keynesian can dream up.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 00:21 | 1897570 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

The U.S. military is too strong to be "taken over".  The Federal Reserve is holding some debt, but all creditor nations have increased their debt holdings, because demand for U.S. debt has increased.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 02:51 | 1897756 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

The largest holder is "some" in your mind ? Its the largest holder ffs.

The Eurozone one quite large net creditor that is decreasing their US debt holdings. US debt is being used and abused as a place to sit and wait. That is why everyone is piling into the short end, closer to the exists.

There is zero funamental demand for US debt. Holding a 30 year at 3% or less while inflation is at 4% is not a very good business practice.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:41 | 1896844 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Oh God. ZH has been infected by a virus!!

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:00 | 1896926 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Paul, you need to see the doctor!

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:03 | 1896942 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

No need to worry.  I am in good health.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:06 | 1897129 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

he means a psychiatric doctor not a regular physician...


thanks for the perspective.. .when do we prepare for alien invasion?

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:17 | 1897161 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Hopefully never, but I wouldn't bet against Stephen Hawking.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 00:11 | 1897550 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Will you ever admit that keynes was wrong ? Because we already know he is.

We know.....Its not a matter of discussion.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 00:26 | 1897576 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Wrong about what?  Simply, save during good years, spend during bad.  The problem that we face now is that it is hard to see into the future, so how can we know what to do before hand?  But at least we know where we stand now, and we stand in a recession.  So what do we do?  We spend.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 03:23 | 1897663 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Keynesianism plus the Fed is like leaving a bunch of meth addicts to guard an infinite hoard of meth and telling them they can smoke just a little if they start to nod off.  Looks doable in theory.  Just like Communism.

I have known enough druggies to know a death spiral when I see one, and America is in a death spiral.

BTW, you will get your aliens right after we burn down the remains of the world financial system, but the aliens will be hippies.  Should we still try a false flag?

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:19 | 1896775 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture


Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:37 | 1896825 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Listen to this price stability:

Coming soon to a theater near you.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:21 | 1896778 tkinfo
tkinfo's picture

Our hedge fund has been long gold, but we've instituted an asymetric hedge on the short side since the PM is acting more like a commodity then a currency, taking on the characteristics we saw in 2008 when it fell by 29% peak to trough. Not fully committed, but as per usual if the hedge proves right we'll reinvest the profit from the move and increase the sign of the position until this storm passes. The Super Committee and risk of a further downgrade of US debt i believe is in play which is what is driving US Futures lower at the start of trading in Asia today.


Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:26 | 1896795 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Agreement = watered down deal = downgrade

No agreement = $1.2t automatic cuts = outlook stable

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:27 | 1896797 SHEEPFUKKER

Come to find out, paper market not all that safe as a hedge. 

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:23 | 1896786 Central Illinois
Central Illinois's picture

Hope this continues till morning open..  my puts would apprieciate it. 

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:28 | 1896799 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I have $5 that says the market will be green prior to the open.  I've seen this too many times, each time thinking "this is it", and then the mother of all stick saves suddenly changes things.  Deja vu is so familiar. 

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:37 | 1896832 Central Illinois
Central Illinois's picture

HA! no bet here.  just hope.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:39 | 1896838 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yeah...but this time, the stick save committee could only come up with a foiled terrorist plot  [24 hours stale] and "vague chatter" about war in Iran as their best distraction techniques.  I'm going to go ahead and suggest that you are wrong here...although since the entire futures market is fraudulent, why don't we assess the market 30 minutes after open...okay?

Man, B. Bernanke really needs to fire the entire PPT...and right quick...if this is the best they can do.

Should be fun with hours of specific [not vague] chatter about how the US government has FAILED AGAIN...leading up the the market open.

Good luck out there tomorrow.


Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:44 | 1896857 chump666
chump666's picture

everything comes to an end

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:57 | 1896910 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

You may be right.  I think it will indeed be in green, and just barely, by few points, so that it doesn't look weird.

Then they'll pump it during the day whenever it drops to key TA levels. Scum.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 08:53 | 1897962 Central Illinois
Central Illinois's picture

 (1193 S&P)

So...  about that $5... ;-) 


 Let see if some damn report comes out with fake data to turn it around.


Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:34 | 1896811 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Damn, futures are taking it on the chin right now. DOW futures down 87 in the first ten minutes.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:42 | 1896850 chump666
chump666's picture

The selling was on these comments:

 *Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan that the world may be entering a long-term recession.

The ECB print, which they won't but just support the EUR, Germany will KICK Greece out end week and give Italy it's marching orders.  Saying that, flat rallies till the big sell, could be early Dec.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:50 | 1896888 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Premier Wang? Figures.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:58 | 1896917 chump666
chump666's picture

and he has a small one...apparently.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:49 | 1897078 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I called to verify but the person on the other end said it was a Wang number.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:44 | 1896861 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

1260 before 1060, yo.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 19:52 | 1896894 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

How long do you think until the BoJ intervenes into the currency markets? - Yen strength must be impacting Japanese industries...there are so many potential pressure points throughout each market that at some point something structural gives way...and there is no one in a position of power that is trustworthy - all 'leadership' is compromised as they lie as easily as they breathe - a little integrity would go a long way...Time for a little Nigel Farage!

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:33 | 1897025 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

They have already intervened - formally, several times.
The real question is when will Japan peg itself to the USD?

The only alternative will be a fire sale to the Chinese, after it is too late. Ozawa and Hatoyama have been to Beijing in unofficial capacity and met with part elites....
Hey...what's that helicopter doing up there?

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:31 | 1897018 Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture

Latest print at 1205. So far nothing crazy. We'll see what those pesky BTU's do when they open in a few more hours. 1200 will be key and I wager that we bounce off that level before decisively break down. I base my "prediction" on a cooling of Italian and Spanish yields, more words of support from ECB/IMF/EU/US etc etc. The latest US econ data has been better than expected so that is keeping stocks elevated for now but at the latest hint of trouble in the USSA and 1200 will go byebye. Do recall that the tylers were repeatedly calling for a sub 50 print on the ISM but we continue to see expansionary numbers, albiet near stall speed.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 20:53 | 1897085 Mark123
Mark123's picture

How much longer do we have to put up with bankers ruling the world?  I see no point in working hard to make money they will steal from me.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:03 | 1897115 Slowpoke Rodriguez
Slowpoke Rodriguez's picture

Looks like risk off is in play big time here. All the money is pouring into "safe bonds". Not much activity in gold yet, but that's probably going to change once the sovereign debt dominoes start to fall. The wave of liquidity seeking safety should bump gold up even in a deflationary environment.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 23:26 | 1897459 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Or after the options expiry and roll starting this Tuesday

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:10 | 1897141 Reptil
Reptil's picture

Yemen stops Oil production - lack of raw material cited


Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:23 | 1897172 youngman
youngman's picture

well I came back early because I think this is the is where we end.....the EU..the Super committiee..Black gold---and its down right a joke--are you buying Italian

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:36 | 1897203 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Super committee man...where are you!?


You can ignore massive deficits in a single bound....make insignificant budget cuts far beyond the next election...accept massive bribes without a second thought!!!


You truly are super!!!!!


Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:46 | 1897236 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Shanghai opens down almost 2%. 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 09:32 | 1898030 michaelsmith_9
michaelsmith_9's picture

We are staring at a large gap open lower for equities today, and it should likely get worse throughout the day.  Momentum should continue to increase.  Here is a look at the technicals.

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