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ES Soars On Hope, QE3 (Non-Lite) Expectations, Takes Out 100 SMA

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We wish there was something tangible we could attribute the sudden surge in the E-Mini S&P contract to, but we can't. This is just the latest repeat of the hope as an upside catalyst thesis. Oh, and QE3 of course. We are confident, that unlike all previous times, the market's hope that math does not matter when bailing out insolvent countries, will be justified.

Today, it appears the 100 SMA is the self-fulfilling prophecy catalyst.

 

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Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:34 | 1796942 redpill
redpill's picture

Play it again, Sam, and up the dosage!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:41 | 1796982 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Chief like this idea: www.SouthGaRealEstateReport.com

Use worthless paper for hard assets, and let foreigners help.

I am The Chief!

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:46 | 1797017 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, of course, never mind the fact that many of these areas do not have the energy or water supplies to serve the current populations and businesses they already have.  Winning.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:48 | 1797025 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

We aren't talking about new development Einstein. Just trying to liquidate existing overhang.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:05 | 1797112 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I'm sitting tight with my leveraged Equity portfolio. Any dips are buying opportunities at this point. Yesterday's Philadelphia Fed survey confirms that the negative economic conditions are merely transitory and I'm looking forward to a VERY profitable 2012. For those of you who haven't bought your financials and retail stocks you need to hurry because this buying window will NOT last much longer.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:10 | 1797136 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Citi not really trying to feel the love today bitches!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:10 | 1797138 redpill
redpill's picture

Good advice.  You and Jim Cramer are my primary sources for investing information.  To the moon!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:30 | 1797177 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Yeah, with $1 trillion in deposits backstopping 50+ trillions in derivatives, BAC is a best buy. Cha-ching!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:34 | 1797261 i root for that...
i root for that fat jersey governor's picture

enough said about the bulls are headline driven, I kind of think it is actually the bears who do that now - hoping the headline from EU falls short. The real thing here (since we are buying stocks) is company earnings. until some big names really disappoint, I don't see why this market should break dowon in short-term.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:39 | 1797284 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"We aren't talking about new development Einstein. Just trying to liquidate existing overhang."

Doesn't really matter if you are or not fucknut.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:42 | 1796989 CPL
CPL's picture

Some of the various side effects from the different market hopium dosages include and are not limited to:

  • Dry mouth
  • Urinary retention
  • Blurred vision
  • Constipation
  • Sedation (can interfere with driving or operating machinery)
  • Sleep disruption
  • Weight gain
  • Headache
  • Nausea
  • Gastrointestinal disturbance/diarrhea
  • Abdominal pain
  • Inability to achieve an erection
  • Inability to achieve an orgasm (men and women)
  • Loss of libido
  • Agitation
  • Anxiety
  • Stroke
  • Hear attack
  • Gigantic eyeball syndrome
  • Fluffy hands.
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:45 | 1797002 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

You forgot....anal leakage!

My favorite.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:17 | 1797412 pods
pods's picture

The condition known as "Hot Dog Fingers."

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:12 | 1798800 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

You say that like it's a bad thing! :>D

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:06 | 1797117 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Just wait until the turkey rally next month. Feathers flying around everywhere. Go double long on gravy to cover those steamin mashed dog turds.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:52 | 1797328 Greenspan Shrugged
Greenspan Shrugged's picture

We're going to the one year moving average on the ES and then look out below people.  Check out the chart below.

 

http://barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ESY00&style=technical&p=WO&d=X&x=0&y=0...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:01 | 1798372 prophet
prophet's picture

There is a twenty percent move coming before the end of the year.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 13:37 | 1797426 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

moved...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:36 | 1798245 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Just dumped my BAC @6.45; bought at $5.70. It's boring; and I want the equity to support my new S&P500 short at 1234.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:05 | 1798391 prophet
prophet's picture

big up monday risk seems high, where is your stop

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:35 | 1796945 agent default
agent default's picture

Ink Bitchez!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:40 | 1796975 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Keyboard. Save the ink, and please donate to Greece.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:35 | 1796947 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

To be fair, i would NOT be short over the weekend in case something (temporary) does come from the Merkozy meetings.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:36 | 1796954 lovedr
lovedr's picture

You are wise.  There is still a little bit of road to kick the can down...but not much.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:45 | 1797004 fuu
fuu's picture

We just need to put American road crews back to work making new road sections.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:26 | 1797219 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Roads are passe we need more bullet trains...

PS. I live in California.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:47 | 1797479 Catch-22
Catch-22's picture

I can see plenty of bullets in the future... not so many trains.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:40 | 1796971 machineh
machineh's picture

Expect an epic food fight with fisticuffs at the Brussels summit.

It's the last lunch on the Titanic, with the drunk and disorderly passengers stabbing each other with butter knives.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:39 | 1796973 Aductor
Aductor's picture

You don't think Utopia is priced in at this point?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:46 | 1797011 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Definitely not utopia. The amount of firepower unleashed to run the SPX over 100 handles in such a short time frame is epic. Youll see soon enough when its time to short, when that same amount of money goes towards selling and buying OTM puts.

Buy the rumor sell the news might be in play till Monday, we shall see.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:57 | 1797072 d00daa
d00daa's picture

don't think he said that, but there is something else going on here as well.  if we gap up here, yet again, and close at highs of day, regardless of what "should" be happening, you have to respect that price action.  you don't have to like it or understand it, but you must respect it.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:42 | 1796991 jdelano
jdelano's picture

would you want to be long in the (likely) event that nothing tangible comes out of the meetings?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:46 | 1797009 SixFeetFromTheHedge
SixFeetFromTheHedge's picture

To be even fairer, anything that comes from the Merkozy meetings has already been priced in. Right now the market has already priced in a 2 Trillion euro EFSF. 

If they come to any lesser conclusion there will probably be a disappointment. :)

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:55 | 1797062 rune420
rune420's picture

Holding any position that isn't hedged for systemic risk either way is pretty much just gambling at this point, at least for the short term. The market will only do that which angers the majority of its participants at any given time, so my guess is it won't drop untill more shorts are covered. Personally I'm long a couple of US sector ETFs and short a european index, the dollar is killing me today though.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:56 | 1797071 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

I'm now officially in for a sizeable amount in FAZ. I'll let u know if i'm rollin' large or rollin' in my grave on Monday. Way too much upside for FAZ to not go in now.

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:08 | 1797132 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

My gut is that you should have given it a few more days.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:19 | 1797189 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

 

 

Doh!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:06 | 1798122 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

I will take FAS for a thousand x 100 + 3

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:35 | 1796950 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Tangible?

Bot reading headlines that Europe is fixed with no pain for anybody.

Options exp Friday momo zaniness.

That's 2 solid reasons to rally right there.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:35 | 1796951 rajc
rajc's picture

just short covering 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:47 | 1797019 maxmad
maxmad's picture

I think all the shorts have covered by now!  This is just a meltup on Inflation.  M1 and M2 are up over 40% for the year.... Nothing magical about this rally, other than your dollars are worth less or worthless!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:52 | 1797035 maxmad
maxmad's picture

This is from George Ure's site:  www.urbansurvival.com

Wonder why prices are firming and why outfits like GE are turning in whopper-sized profits?  Simple:  The Federal Reserve is orchestrating a runway money supply.  Yes, indeed, right here in the Federal Reserve's weekly H.6 money supply figures it's revealed that in the most recent three months, the annualized rate of M1 increase is 38.2 percent.  Bad?  You bet!

 

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:57 | 1797076 SDRII
SDRII's picture

But but but.....from the Fed Minutes

M2 surged in July and August, as investors and asset managers sought the relative safety and liquidity of bank deposits and other assets that make up the M2 aggregate. Notably, institutional investors, concerned about exposures of money funds to European financial institutions, shifted from prime money funds to bank deposits, and money fund managers accumulated sizable bank deposits in anticipation of potentially large redemptions by investors. In addition, retail investors evidently placed redemptions from equity and bond mutual funds into bank deposits and retail money market funds.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:35 | 1796952 Aductor
Aductor's picture

Complete and utter madness. The invisible rational Kudlowian hand at work for you!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:36 | 1796956 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

"It funny how everything is roses when you hold onto the guns....just because your winning dont mean your the lucky one..."

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:40 | 1796978 Pig Brotha
Pig Brotha's picture

A G n R quote is just about right for this fucked up Friday

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:49 | 1797028 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

didnt take long to find a connoisseur. 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:04 | 1797109 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Ben on QE

 

I used to do a little but the little wouldn't do it so the little got more and more, just keep tryin to get a little better said a little better than before......

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:09 | 1797130 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

deleted. see below

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:05 | 1797113 Pig Brotha
Pig Brotha's picture

Right back at ya -

 

The billions shift from side to side
And the wars go on with brainwashed pride
For the love of God and our human rights
And all these things are swept aside
By bloody hands time can't deny
And are washed away by your genocide
And history hides the lies of our civil wars

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:10 | 1798135 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Some men just dont get it.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:37 | 1796958 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Why wasn't there a follow up on the vote in Greece? The parliament approved the austerity bill.

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:37 | 1796959 afdestruction
afdestruction's picture

Dollar is plunging like a mofo, they've got an inverse relationship lately

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:37 | 1796962 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Bears have the weekly RSI divergent sell signal trumping the daily RSI bullish divergent signal. The bull case is off the table as of today's intra-day highs, leaving the weekly Bear signal to fulfill it's targets.. or so one might expect.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:37 | 1796965 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i hope the bernank gets a tumah.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:38 | 1796966 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

I think anything temporary will be sold off. A be all and end all fix has been being priced in the last two weeks.    

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:38 | 1796967 Iam Rich
Iam Rich's picture

Exhaustian gap.... that's what I'm clinging to!  IYR is up retardedly this am, that makes sense to me.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:39 | 1796969 Cursive
Cursive's picture

It's opex week and the MM's will be paid. Fuck the whole rigged thing.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:40 | 1796974 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

I watch and think October 2008.

Remember how the market skyrocketed into TARP.....and dumped immediately afterwards.

Btw, this morning the Germans have turned this back on the US and want IMF involvement on a preemptive basis. In other words if Geithner and Obama want this solved they are going to be on the hook for 20% of the cost.

A senior German government official on Friday cited
the so-called insurance solution and a stronger involvement of the IMF
as the two most promising proposals being discussed on the European
level to increase the firing power of the European Financial Stability
Facility (EFSF).

The insurance concept foresees that the EFSF would guarantee a
certain percentage of a bond in order to minimize the risk for private
investors, he explained.

Regarding a stronger IMF involvement, fiscally ailing Eurozone
member states could apply for precautionary financial aid not only at
the EFSF but parallel at the IMF, the official said.

“The IMF [involvement] and insurance [model] are for me currently
the two options which have the largest chances of success,” he said

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:46 | 1797012 reload
reload's picture
I dont think private investors will be buying too much Euro CDO/SiV debt.
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:40 | 1796976 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I'm sure it's just Waddell&Reed.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:40 | 1796977 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

it still failed the 1236 chart resistance so far, but if it sits above it on a 1 minute chart it should be clear to 1256.

sometimes i wonder why i bothered learning all that crap about solid earnings, how to read quarterlys, etc. and chart analysis, etc. etc.

i should have watched cramer with a terra-cotta toothed drool while wanking myself with cheese doodle stained fingers

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:45 | 1797005 jdelano
jdelano's picture

and the masterful use of imagery award for the day goes to....what is that, Andrew Jackson?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:51 | 1797048 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

no, thats hoss cartwright, but you were close

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:58 | 1797082 jdelano
jdelano's picture

it's a tiny freaking icon and my eyes suck.  gimme a break.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:10 | 1797135 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

break granted, and it is old hickory.  right now that /es resistance point bounced it down, we could go down from here and collapse into the close.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:50 | 1797038 caerus
caerus's picture

agreed...won't last imo...opex etc.  if ES manages to break and hold above that resistance from the beginning of august then we'll see

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:41 | 1796984 Foul Ole Ron
Foul Ole Ron's picture

Market isn't expecting QE3 at the moment - hasn't been enough of a market plunge and recent economic indicators haven't given the Fed the green light. QE3 might come yet but things will have to take a significant turn for the worst first.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 18:27 | 1798865 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Market plunge?  Excuse me, but the DOW closed @ 11,808.79 today.  Reality continues to be out to lunch!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:41 | 1796985 reload
reload's picture

I put it down to the whiff of printers ink - heady stuff.

Shiny and oil not so easily intoxicated today though.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:44 | 1796987 TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

Bank of America Deathwatch: Moves Risky Derivatives from Holding Company to Taxpayer-Backstopped Depository

http://tiny.cc/tpm9k 

 

Also of note ...

 

The report has the dry title FEDERAL RESERVE BANK GOVERNANCE: Opportunities Exist to Broaden Director Recruitment Efforts and Increase Transparency and is the result of an amendment to Dodd Frank by Bernie Sanders to audit the governance of the Fed. Sanders’ office published a useful list of highlights, such as:

The GAO identified 18 former and current members of the Federal Reserve’s board affiliated with banks and companies that received emergency loans from the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis including General Electric, JP Morgan Chase, and Lehman Brothers.

There are no restrictions on directors of the Federal Reserve Board from communicating concerns about their respective banks to the staff of the Federal Reserve.

Many of the Federal Reserve’s board of directors own stock or work directly for banks that are supervised and regulated by the Federal Reserve. These board members oversee the Federal Reserve’s operations including salary and personnel decisions.

Under current regulations, Fed directors who are employed by the banking industry or own stock in financial institutions can participate in decisions involving how much interest to charge to financial institutions receiving Fed loans; and the approval or disapproval of Federal Reserve credit to healthy banks and banks in “hazardous” condition.

The Federal Reserve does not publicly disclose its conflict of interest regulations or when it grants waivers to its conflict of interest regulations.

 

http://tiny.cc/ntsjs

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:42 | 1796990 Belarus
Belarus's picture

If you go back and read my posts, this is exactly what I expected this week: a huge move (actually not as much as I prediated though, which was 5-7%). But my next predication? The market will give it all back next week. This is going to be the ultimate suckers rally....

There will not be money printing in Europe--YET. Which means once the news gets digested, watch out below as the banks stumble. It will be a TARP 1 vote not passing Congress next week in Europe. 

With weak hand shorts having long left the market by the end of today, with nothing but disappointing news on the horizon, with stocks extremely overbought: I'm thinking next week could be epic. Epic! I will likely put on some big shorts on any major spikes next week. That's right, I'm expecting a big down week--but first i think we see a blow off top on the news Monday. I'll be fading it unless a bazooka comes out. 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:55 | 1797061 machineh
machineh's picture

'It will be a TARP 1 vote not passing Congress next week in Europe.'

BINGO -- perfect analogy!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:58 | 1797085 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

I mean for October to live up to it's infamous reputation, she only has one week left.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:22 | 1797202 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Don't worry, she'll suck, and suck, and suck, and suck, until you finally unload.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:32 | 1798224 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Short the S&P500 contract at the market; immediately. filled at 1234. 70/30 probability of taking profit next week. create a stop loss.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:07 | 1797122 oceanview76
oceanview76's picture

I hope you're right Belarus.  I've been getting my ass kicked on a weekly basis being short this market waiting for the Euro-cluster to implode on itself.  First Steve Liesman Greek'ed me from behind with his b.s. story on CNBC which was good for a quick rally on the Dow.  Then it was the b.s. FT article announcing the earth shattering news that the Eurozone had announced that they were committing to work together to develop a plan for a plan by a specific date that would have some details, and then the Guardian publishes another worthless article that lands with the impact of a size 12 steel-toed boot in my junk.  The whole time I sit patiently waiting and watching these b.s. equity markets melt upward on vaporous volumes while Greek burns, credit default swaps blow out, consumer confidence plummits, unemployment data stays above the 400 mark and primeX collapses.  Siiigh.  Cramer was right, I should have just dollar cost averaged, stayed in the market, chased the dividend paying stocks and hung out with the OWS for shits and giggles and I would have been much better off.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:12 | 1797151 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Conclusion: Listen to Cramer and you won't get Greek'ed from behind.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:15 | 1797164 jdelano
jdelano's picture

A system that rewards extreme stupidity--who wants to believe in that.  The shorts are the really delusional optimists I suppose.      

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:42 | 1796992 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Complete and utter horseshit to the Nth power.

Fuk you SEC and DOJ, you brainless, ball-less, toothless and corrupt p.o.s.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:17 | 1797181 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

p.o.s = point of sale ?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:43 | 1797000 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Never be SHORT ANYTHING when the Zimbabwe-esque print factory is on "Full Throttle". This global reflation is incredibly bullish for stocks (as posted here consistently without wavering since August) with my resultant mantra being this: NEVER underestimate the replacement power of equities within an inflationary spiral. Shorting stocks is like going LONG cash - cash which is getting more and more worthless each day that passes. The time to get seriously short is when the inflation rate is reported accurately north of 12% and policy talking points are "How are we to deal with inflation?" as opposed to "How do we save our banking sector?". These pricks will go into hyperinflate mode first before letting their beloved banks fail and that goes for the Sovereigns as well.

 

BUY BUY BUY...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:47 | 1797023 Belarus
Belarus's picture

BUY BUY BUY...

We'll see next week, right? Plus, we'll see if Japan hyperinflates or restructures as well, soon. I wouldn't count your chickens before they hatch. I think next week we'll see SELL, SELL, SELL!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:46 | 1797015 B-rock
B-rock's picture

If ES is above 1200, where i the insentive for QE3???  I don't get it.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:55 | 1797066 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

The incentive is rescueing the TBTF. Rumours of their crumbling assets are growing and they lead the last downturn. If that truth based negativity gains momentum due to Europe or the growing ,still, MBS debacle, its lights out.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:59 | 1797547 Catch-22
Catch-22's picture

It could be the other way around, QE3 is probably already here, explaining the surge... Why does everyone think it has to be "announced"?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:47 | 1797018 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Has anyone considered how much of a fail Operation Twist has been? How long has Op Twist been in play? Three or four weeks. Must be a huge fail if market players are all asking for QE3 already. And QE3 will fail as well. Consider this day a one day phenom more than likely because the effect of the Fed on the economy are smaller and smaller.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:47 | 1797020 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Does Bob Pisani have comments about volume?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:48 | 1797027 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

1 Someone moves the yen stronger based on ??? nothing?

2 EURUSD follows suit and dutifully moves upward.

3 ES surges on correlation with EURUSD

What's wrong with that scenario as an explanation? It's the one that came to my mind. I'll be a lot happier with the QE explanation when I see how that messed up the yen. It just seems to me that a lot more is happening under the surface. But no one asks my opinion before they do these things.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:17 | 1797179 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Well, the dead cat bounce in some key commodities has been showing some signs of faltering. So you see pretty desperate pumping there. Can´t have Goldman´s warehouse business at a loss. The other side of that coin is a weaker dollar obviously.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:49 | 1797034 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

They are forcing the ES up because they can.  The same reason a dog lick his balls.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:07 | 1797123 sabra1
sabra1's picture

there have been many a day that i wish i were a dog!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:40 | 1800032 AbuSous
AbuSous's picture

I am not sure if any body noticed but the volume on Friday the 21st during the first two minutes (9:31 and 9:32 AM ) was close to 85+ million?

My math could be wrong but that is little less one Trillion dollars. I arrived to this number by: 85M * 11,500 = 977,500,000

Who has this much money to buy?

Who ever it was, I believe their intention was to cause a short squeeze and to push the market up despite of the bad news in Europe.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:50 | 1797041 afdestruction
afdestruction's picture

Lol look at the s&p500 volume since open. A brisk fart and lingering vapors

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:50 | 1797044 antonwarnung
antonwarnung's picture

Seems to me like the ratio of melt-up days to down days has increased.  Who knows how much longer this can last?  Could we have a month or two before corporate margins begin to feel the slowdown and planned layoffs ramp up.  To me China seems to be the wildcard.  Can they paper over their mess and play pretend like the US and Eurpope.  Doesn't the melt up help Europe kick the can down the road in terms of banking solvency issues.  Just paper it over and agree to agree later.

-A

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:51 | 1797046 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

And The Fed's hints at purchasing MBS, ABS or bad loans from banks.

The Fed's balance sheet is going to be larger than the world economy soon!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:51 | 1797049 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

WoW! What a shame the stock market is. Not only is it not based on fundamentals but based totally on momentum, short squeezes and pavlovian dogs trained to sky the market on the hope of more dope.

One Fed guy says they should buy more MBS and the sheep believe him and go and try to front run the Fed. So the ruse worked perfectly. Get Gross and other big Fund maangers to buy MBS and do the Feds bidding.

What a farse. So glad I have been on the sidelines the last two weeks. I had a feeling the market was heading higher. 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:09 | 1797133 antonwarnung
antonwarnung's picture

Yeah its a farse.  I've largely been on the sidelines the last two weeks too, but if you had a feeling the market was heading higher you might have gone long.  I know I can't go long in this market either.  I really think right now what commodities and particually commodities in asia do will have a lot to say regarding what is next for US equties.

 

Higher commidities =short term bullish for equities

Lower comodities = short term bearish to neutral for US equities depending on severity of correction

IMHO

-A

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:28 | 1797208 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Yeah, just can't see myself buying on the upside. I mean I could buy Fas but do I really think the banks are healed? Of course not.

 But this market is not going to crash unless Europe crashes. And who knows when that is. Let them squeeze all of the shorts and announce some mortgage scheme next week and even have the Fed buy some more MBS. Fact of the matter is that they are running out of things to do.

If people are not re-financing with the 10 year at 1.9 percent they certainly are not going to buy with the 10 year at 1.8 percent. The people who have not refinanced by now can't because THEY DON'T HAVE JOBS. They are 90 plus days delinquent and are massively underwater. So no interest rate will help them.

Now if they think enough people will come out of the woodwork (and foreign buyers along with investors) will buy up all the cheap housing and create rentals which will raise the value of home prices thus making people less underwater is there plan. Well that won't work either because as Mark Hanson has said so many times, without the upwardly mobile buyer upgrading the housing market will stay flat for years. And even if house prices rose modestly more and more endless supply will come on the market because there are those sellers who are waiting for a better market to list their homes. Not to mention the 75 million baby boomers who are retiring and want to sell their Mc mansions as well as people wanting smaller homes with a world of stagnant or lower wages.

There are just too many issues to fix. But they will try and try...

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:55 | 1797059 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

The only safe thing left to trade is volatility, buy both ends and let the rumors fly. You can churn that play 3 times a day , the way it is going

.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:45 | 1797307 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

That's my game...Let the phony basta*ds screw themselves into the ground..

Otherwise whichever side one chooses, they go the other way..

Seen it lots...Have stored the charts, for proof..

Be safe all..

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:55 | 1797064 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Some financials like Travelers have gone straight up off the lows.

$47 to $57 in just a few days.

GDX???  Uhh, that's another story....

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:57 | 1797079 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

WTI and gold are starting to pull back, don't expect equities to keep running up unless these two turn around.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 14:28 | 1797924 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Other financials, like SunTrust, have dropped almost 4% today.  What the fuck is your point, bitch?  

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:56 | 1797070 rajc
rajc's picture

look at the COT data for ES and you will see that pros are short the most since 2008-2009 recession.  so this might be short covering by some or more??

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:57 | 1797077 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Clearly all of this is BULLISH. How the fuck are markets up? Please God, Santa and Tooth Fairy pray tell!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:03 | 1797099 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Run it up to ruin the shorts, farther to fall when the bottom drops out.  QE3 rumors fast and furious the culprit, but what of the precipitous dollar/yen drop, would that not trigger the algorithms to correct by buying.  

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:06 | 1797115 afdestruction
afdestruction's picture

Its all about the dollar at the moment, look at the 5 minute charts. Almost perfect inverse

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:05 | 1797111 adr
adr's picture

So the market is back to the end of June then. Oct 3rd was just like June 25th or so? Now we get a October 20% rally off pure hopium just like July. So that means the end of November will be like the start of August and we'll get a market crash at the end of the year.

It is amazing how orcestrated this whole thing is. Today there are all kinds of stories about Netflix, finally progress. s Netflix the perfect stock?

So iguess Netflix back to $250, $175 Lulu, CMG to $500, $1000 Apple and WTI back to $150 or more. THANKS UNCLE BEN!!!!!!!!

I'm sure the holiday shopping season will be great with $5 a gallon gas.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:06 | 1797114 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

It's the option expiration day, those who sold puts or bought calls need to get their money.

XLF calls:

13.00 XLF111022C00013000 0.10 0.05 0.09 0.10 43,933 310,371

SPY calls

124.00 SPY111022C00124000 0.37 0.29 0.36 0.37 86,904 144,585 124.00 SPY111028C00124000 1.98 0.82 1.98 2.00 10,468 3,354 125.00 SPY111022C00125000 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.07 68,957 261,664

 SPY puts: (whoever sold them are making billions)

100.00 SPY111022P00100000 0.01 0.00 N/A 0.01 529 424,190
101.00 SPY111022P00101000 0.01 0.00 N/A 0.01 2 153,770
102.00 SPY111022P00102000 0.02 0.00 N/A 0.01 1,033 161,936
103.00 SPY111022P00103000 0.01 0.00 N/A 0.01 518 72,111
104.00 SPY111022P00104000 0.01 0.00 N/A 0.01 66 165,798
105.00 SPY111022P00105000 0.01 0.00 N/A 0.01 238 358,595
106.00 SPY111022P00106000 0.01 0.00 N/A 0.01 559 205,655
107.00 SPY111022P00107000 0.01 0.00 N/A 0.01 61 279,620
108.00 SPY111022P00108000 0.01 0.00 N/A 0.01 40 172,099
109.00 SPY111022P00109000 0.01 0.00 N/A 0.01 72 174,379
110.00 SPY111022P00110000 0.01  0.01 N/A 0.01 138 343,742
111.00 SPY111022P00111000 0.01  0.03 N/A 0.01 147 171,363
112.00 SPY111022P00112000 0.01  0.01 N/A 0.01 663 245,765
113.00 SPY111022P00113000 0.01  0.02 N/A 0.01 342 235,161
113.00 SPY111028P00113000 0.23  0.26 0.24 0.25 1,561 9,398
114.00 SPY111022P00114000 0.01  0.02 N/A 0.01 150 229,292
115.00 SPY111022P00115000 0.01  0.03 N/A 0.01 1,073 293,066
116.00 SPY111022P00116000 0.01  0.03 N/A 0.01 1,037 283,707
117.00 SPY111022P00117000 0.01  0.05 N/A 0.01 922 239,210
118.00 SPY111022P00118000 0.01  0.09 N/A 0.01 4,039 253,803
119.00 SPY111022P00119000 0.01  0.17 N/A 0.01 10,861 186,205
120.00 SPY111022P00120000 0.02  0.30 0.01 0.02 43,163 204,375
121.00 SPY111022P00121000 0.04  0.56 0.03 0.04 52,955 134,424
122.00 SPY111022P00122000 0.08  0.98 0.07 0.08 78,713 124,272

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:06 | 1797119 Nucking Futs
Nucking Futs's picture

self-licking ice cream cone anyone?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:20 | 1797196 Quadlet
Quadlet's picture

Did you get that from Dana yesterday?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:28 | 1797233 Nucking Futs
Nucking Futs's picture

who is Dana?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:07 | 1797120 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

As the 2 leading actors in Shawshank Redemption said.. hope .. its a good thing.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:08 | 1797124 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I hate to be such a troll, but.....

If europe gets their act together the bull market is totally on, full speed ahead.

I would probably have a slight preference for the oligarchs and their babies on pitchforks, with the traditional pillaging and looting as a system goes through a reset, but I am a speculator and putative investor, so I try to profit from any eventuality and keep an open mind.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:29 | 1797227 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

I don't see how the "bull market is totally on" if Europe gets its act together.....First of all that's a big "IF"....secondly employment is SHIT, people that do have jobs are earning LESS, people are losing their homes and the shadow inventory is huge, some commercial RE deals are such a mess the banks are hit with a bigger liabilities then the original loan amount. We also have a goverment that nobody has any faith an confidence in....this Cancer in Confidence is spreading to the dollar as well as people just expect more QE.......  Nothing that will solve our mess will feel like EASING I assure you.  The mega corps will get Mega'er....and the mom and pops that built this country will continue to be marginalized...... So keep going to buy the latest Iphone, enjoy your TSA patdowns, and hand the lady at the door your receipt so she can search you to make sure you didn't steal anything as you visited Costco....

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:34 | 1797256 jdelano
jdelano's picture

wait a minute, wait a minute, what about the fact that earnings have completely freaking TOPPED OUT and pretty much every major beat has been a one time balance sheet juggle gain?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:08 | 1797125 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Put/call ratio closed near 1.40 yesterday, after persistent readings in the range of 1.30 - 1.50 all day.

The day before, there was an opening put/call reading of 1.72, one of the highest I've ever seen.

The 21-day MA of the put/call ratio has been pinned at the highs for weeks, as fear is huge in the market right now.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&i=p34830204053&a=217031142&r=4693

We have also seen an unprecedented 37 straight trading days with -1000 TICK readings.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TICK&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p37322057532

After that false breakdown and immediate v-bottom off the lows, I'm still convinced that a multi-month rally is now in progress.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:15 | 1797166 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Sure, suddenly all the bankrupt countries and states will buy Iphone, dell computers, HP printer, Cat bulldozers, Boeing 787, microsoft kinects, facebook accounts.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:25 | 1797218 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Why?  (Seriously...why should this market rally?)

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:41 | 1797292 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Dear Mr. Cherry,

Maybe the better question is why would it not? The market is no longer, and may never be again, an economic indicator. It is strictly a means by which the plutocrats protect and grow their wealth. The Fed's ZIRP pushes money into the market at the rate of billions per day. Equity ownership is the inflationary hedge. If you have way more wealth than your lifestyle requires (the 1%) your inflationary hedge more than compensates you for the increase in the cost of living. If you have less wealth than you need, (the 99%) you are fucked. You have to endure inflation without a hedge. You can't even count on increasing wages because every day that more people get laid off your negotiating power falls. 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:09 | 1797371 jdelano
jdelano's picture

I'm gonna ignore your presumption that I'm a nine year old retarded child and simply point out that if you were correct, then the market never would have dropped in August and would be robustly positive for the year/decade.  I agree with the theory of equity ownership as an inflationary hedge, however, mom and pop do not seem to endorse the practice, judging by the enormous outflows we have seen in recent weeks.  Prudently, mom and pop recognize when the dynamic of risk/reward is unattractive and the empirical evidence suggests that they are not participating in this rally as they are aware of the tremendous systemic flaws that are threatening to literally destroy the equitiy markets.  As the majority of them understand very little about stocks other than the risk, they tend prefer a negative real rate of return during times of extreme volatility.  That volatility shows no signs of ebbing until after a real solution for the world's solvency issues has been demonstrably enacted, and therefore you will not see mom and pop return to the market any time soon, and without them there is a very low ceiling over this mummers farce of a market.  

 

Or, in other words, I don't really appreciate your condescension, Mr. Smithy, and was hoping for a more sophisticated response from Robo as opposed to a recap of the same old pithy Bloomberg crap from you.     

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:20 | 1797422 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Right, the market has crashed by 50% twice in the last decade and its total capitalization is still 15-20% lower than at the top in 2000. It´s a matter of historical record. So, this is just another wild bear market rally in this 11-year old bear market.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 13:10 | 1797583 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

You're right. There was no call for me to be condescending. I apologise.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:20 | 1797423 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"every day that more people get laid off your negotiating power falls."

Well yes, until enough people are hungry, but your point is well taken, this could go on for a very long time.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:08 | 1797129 bxy
bxy's picture

what a fucking scam!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:10 | 1797137 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

My guru used to put a ball of mercury in his hand and make it move from one place to another.

As it moved, it got smaller and smaller until eventually it was gone, absorbed by the Organism holding it.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:17 | 1797176 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

And evaporation.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:25 | 1797214 sheeple2012
sheeple2012's picture

Speaking of guru's why is Jack Welch considered a management guru when GE is trading at same price as it was in 1996...? seems to me he's just an old greedy fool who turnied a good company into an over-leveraged and over-diversified piece of garbage

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 13:07 | 1797574 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

Maybe because this era's all about "media management" instead of actual management. Lady Twitter Facebook Gaga Mac anyone?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:31 | 1797246 Nucking Futs
Nucking Futs's picture

Cool story bro.  did he also who you how he made a volcano with baking soda and vinegar?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 13:05 | 1797565 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

No, where's the metaphor in that?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:13 | 1797157 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

This is Mickey Mouse shit !

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:17 | 1797183 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the  S&P is up b/c the banksters are bailing out europe by over-supporting the euro.  a strong euro is bullish, always, for the ES.  here, the banksters are taking some of the "risk" out of the europeon sovereign & banking "crisis" by insuring that euroz are "worth something"

the SNB's support peg to the euro was the harbinger of this bankster strategy

so, as we approach 139 EUR.USD "the bottom is in" for stocks! 

listen.  if QE III Lite is doing this well, wtf would a person as intelligent and devious as the chairsatan stop laughing long enuf to actually monetiZe anything, at this point?  we have enuf liquidity to weather the "recapitalization" or whatever the zombies are really up to

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:37 | 1797274 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

What ever happened to that ZH, Richard C. Hoaglandesque-sounding "headfake" theory from last week that the robots were being tricked into driving equities higher???

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:48 | 1797318 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i'm not sure, but perhaps the theory was only good until the french stopped their tri-colored repatriation of euroz, at which point the momomofos started shooting up FX?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:22 | 1797429 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I agree slewie and would say that the rate of euro propping will only increase.  Sort of like the yeild on Greek bonds.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 13:56 | 1797798 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

lawZof.theBong, BiCheZ!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:26 | 1797223 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

1. Options Expiration

2. (Early) End of Month "Bonus" Rally

3. Good Time To Go SHORT

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:35 | 1797266 shazbotz
shazbotz's picture

dude stop hogging the hope'ium and pass that sucker over

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:47 | 1797311 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Financial holocaust has officially begun in 2008, and their slaughtering machinery has to go into overdrive via perpetual QE.  The world will not end but be forever altered. 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:48 | 1797317 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

don't bogart that hope my friend, pass it over to me

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:50 | 1797322 economists_do_i...
economists_do_it_with_models's picture

The simple explanation is copper which is up 4-5% today.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:00 | 1797360 Tuffmug
Tuffmug's picture

Euro scum rallying on hope they can pass off the cost of the Euro bailout to the IMF (aka US, china, and the BRICS). That is the only news that came out today that could possibly be spun as positive. They are true socialists, always wanting somebody else to pay! All the foot dragging has been about them trying to get somebody else to pay!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:28 | 1797443 Quackking
Quackking's picture

No, no (you fools!) What is bullish is that the EU is about to BAN country ratings! Of course! Why didn't I think of that?  http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,792970,00.html

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:52 | 1797510 Kurion
Kurion's picture

What!!! 20% that's like 400 billion...Ahhh!!!!!!!

My American bung still hurts from Dexia And friends :-(

Quick, hide your wallet!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:54 | 1797525 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

The magnitude of this Oct. rally is such that when it started 80% of stocks traded below their 50-day MA and now it´s down to 40%. A lot of deadwood has risen along with the rest. Still, they´ve only managed to manhandle the ratio of stocks trading above the 200-day MA from 20-25%. So the 11-year old bear market is very much alive and well as its internals show well.

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 13:13 | 1797595 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

It used to be that the German stock market followed U.S. but it seems to have reversed this year as CNN astutely points out.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/21/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?section=money_...

A sign of danger? I  don´t know. Probably some sort of dysfunction as the U.S. market dwarfs its leader.

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:33 | 1800015 AbuSous
AbuSous's picture

I am not sure if any body noticed but the volume on Friday the 21st during the first two minutes (9:31 and 9:32 AM ) was close to 85+ million?

My math could be wrong but that is little less one Trillion dollars. I arrived to this number by: 85M * 11,500 = 977,500,000

Who has this much money to buy?

Who ever it was, I believe their intention was to cause a short squeeze and to push the market up despite of the bad news in Europe.

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