ETA To NEW QE: Don't Hold Your Breath Just Yet

Tyler Durden's picture

Whether one believes that Bernanke's mandate mission in life is to 'save the banking system', 'reflate asset prices', 'devalue the USD' - all of which seem to err on the side of inflation (and ultimately hyper-inflation once the trust is gone); it seems more critical to focus on the other side of the coin - deflation. Bernanke's true raison d'etre is simple: avoid debt deflation and implicitly everything he has said and studied points to the avoidance of any deflation. For this reason, BofA notes that today's chart of the day is the Break-even inflation rate in the US. This has been the most consistent - non-numeraire-based - leading indicator of Fed QE efforts. We note that the initial QE2 decision took a little longer to enact but was signaled considerably earlier (Jackson Hole) as the break-evens dropped below its NEW QE threshold. But with the levels currently 25-30bps off their threshold levels, we suggest those holding their breaths for the next Fed-induced liquigasm in stocks, should practice Pranayama.

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Harlequin001's picture

It is inevitable...

The mathematics defines it.

Luckily my  gold won't spoil or rot or default whilst I'm waiting...

Gravity is a bitch.

scatterbrains's picture

I like to visualize the printing situation like a giant leaking fish bowl with the masses of fiat using guppies cluelessly swimming about unaware of the falling water line. World central bankers are trying to pour just enough water in to keep the fishies alive. Gold is behaving like a bobber floating on the water's surface and providing a measure of how fast or slow the central bankers are pouring water in (printing). If they get lucky and get it just right, gold and silver will be flat to slightly down.(I don't think they will) Too little and down we go in a deflationary collapse.  If they misjudge and add too much, the water and guppies will spill over the edge and out onto the floor and die. Gold is your life preserver in case the CB's fuck it all up.  They are guilty of mass murder if they fail and the system collapses for having denied how important gold is to your survival.

Silver Bully's picture

According to that chart, we ought to be expecting QE3 sometime around October. That's over 5 months out. Gravity still apparently takes a bit more time.

Stoploss's picture

WTF, we drop 100 S&P points, and it's print or die already??

1215 still too high...

LawsofPhysics's picture

300 is too fucking high.  Paper is going to zero.  If you can't touch it, you don't own it.

malikai's picture

I'm placing a firm floor on the ES at $0.01. At that price, I will buy it all.

Lord Blankcheck's picture

I'd rather own  private equity then public debt.Governments always default,once people start fleaing public debt is when the Dow goes to 36k.

LawsofPhysics's picture

All paper going to zero, including private equitiy "stocks".  How do you think the revenues for these companies will look when the dollar is worthless?  You would do better to buy land for lease to future sharecroppers (something a number of corporations and banks are already doing).

SheepDog-One's picture

-100 S&P points! OMG we need fresh free monees up in here!!

These people are deludng themselves with their chomping at the bit for QE every hour, and its not going to come...at least not until WAY lower, if at all.

nantucket's picture

any statement that ends with "up in here" is taken more seriously than those without it.  i use it in company meetings all the time now and i get IMMEDIATE results

kito's picture

not until after elections, for the 1000th time i say.....and again, dont hold your breath for 2000 gold until qe3 is implemented..................funny how many people on here cant accept that.............

Floordawg's picture

It's like Homer Simpson and his microwave hotdog... "30 seconds!? But I want it now!?"

CrashisOptimistic's picture

It truly makes no sense to have folks continually betting on gold.

Gold is insignificant to society and life, and the point of that is that it CAN'T become significant.  If it did, threatening "the system", then governments globally in globaly coordination will simply tax transactions.

You can own it, but if you traffic in it, you'll be taxed on the transaction, perhaps 60%.  

It's pointless.  Governments have the power to do this.  You could never do private transactions because you would never know if your counterparty is law enforcement.

eaglefalcon's picture

Well, try to levy a 60% tax on gold transaction in countries where gold ownership is widespread and a primary mean of saving! (India and China for example). The people wouldn't be concerned about their gold, but the law enforcement would be mightily concerned about their own rear end. What happens if you do that in the US? Gold will simply flow out of the country to wherever it's not taxed.

theTribster's picture

Your right they could do that but they wouldn't unless they want a revolt. Gold has an emotional connection to the world, anything done along those lines would create some serious pushback. They added a tax to Indian Gold a couple months ago and the market basically shut down completely! They eventually relented and removed the tax of course.

I don't think the gubmint will be successfull fucking with PMs like Roosevelt did, that was a one-time opportunity because the people will not be folled again! Also, some states have already made moves to allow Gold and Silver as a form of tradable currency - this sort of restricts what the Feds can do.

Leave my Gold alone, just keep printing paper money Bernanke.

Harlequin001's picture

Yes you can, you can do it through a trust. There is absolutely nothing stopping me clearing your trades on your behalf anywhere including overseas.

No country can stop that.

To be blunt, your entire scenario is just not workable. There is no way any government can prevent it. If they stop you investing in gold, where are you going to invest? Corn? Wheat?

Inflation would shoot skyward like you wouldn't believe.

Overfed's picture

That might end up being a whole pile of straws on the camel's back.

tekhneek's picture

You also can't buy marijuana ... because it's illegal... but people seem to... have found a way around that...

 

Raynja's picture

The market is still high, but they either have to print soon or wait til after the elections.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea and look at them rush in to emergency re-pump markets every time, the muppets are going to be waiting a real long time before theyre showered with mythical free money for their losing stock portfolios, if ever.

itisthetimethisistheplace's picture

Inevitable yes, delayed...probably.

 

 

monopoly's picture

Yes, but no rush. We all know the end game. Just going to take time to get there. And when the funding crisis hits, that is when it will get interesting. Until then, same old shit. 

Floordawg's picture

and fire sale prices... BEFORE the fire.

Deep79's picture

I have been saying since Jan, we aint getting QE til SP is near 1000

 

 

paulbain's picture

Deep79 wrote:

============================

I have been saying since Jan, we aint getting QE til SP is near 1000

============================

I respectfully disagree. I think that the SP 500 index need only decline to 1250. If it falls below that point, then QE3 is practically guaranteed, except that QE3 probably will not be called "quantitative easing 3," but something else.

-- Paul D. Bain

paulbain@PObox.com

 

 

 

q99x2's picture

His mission is to give the banksters everyone's money and set the stage for a culling of the population. He is a ChairSatan.

Besides don't need the Bernank on this one we have the retail inverstor doubling down bargain hunting with a Martingale vengence after the collapse of FB

spastic_colon's picture

more whining banks asking for QE....QE is now a politcal timebomb, bernanke gets reappointed no matter who is in office, which is why the repubs have said nothing about him or the fed if you havent noticed

Floordawg's picture

Romney has stated, if he's elected Bernanke's out.

Harlequin001's picture

and do you think that will make any difference?

Floordawg's picture

None whatsoever. Other than everyone having someone else to bitch about.

BeetleBailey's picture

unless he anoints Ron Paul............armed with a flamethrower..............

Harlequin001's picture

the odds against that are bigger than the national debt...

Vince Clortho's picture

He probably wants out at this point.  Being the visible hatchet man for the CB takes its toll.  Time for someone else to turn their face into a dartboard.

LongSoupLine's picture

Yep, and besides, Goldman needs a new CEO

kito's picture

perhaps you should look at romneys top contributors...............

 

Goldman Sachs $573,080 Bank of America $398,850 JPMorgan Chase & Co $393,825 Morgan Stanley $373,850 Credit Suisse Group $317,410 Citigroup Inc $301,550
SheepDog-One's picture

Damn where did all those insolvent banking fronts get all those monees to throw around to politicians? Hmmmm.

Floordawg's picture

Please don't confuse my comment as any vote of confidence (in either candidate)... Just saying what was said.

Floordawg's picture

How low can gold, silver and oil go? Place your bets people!

HurricaneSeason's picture

The top will be:

1-ounce of gold = 4000 shares of facebook (If facebook was still on the stock exchange at the price they probably would have set it at.)

Doubleguns's picture

Up, down, up, down, up, down. Something about Debbie and Dallas.

AC_Doctor's picture

Fucker needs some fresh rope with a pretty sliding loop at the end action...

Vince Clortho's picture

Bernanke is going to be remembered as the man who brought HyperInflation to the world.

Is there a "Man of the Year" award for that?

PrinceDraxx's picture

Cover of Time Magazine and a Nobel Prize, of course.

monopoly's picture

My bet is the bottom is in for both gold and silver. Can retrace some, scare out the weak holders, but I think we continue to move higher with the usual fits and starts. And that is how I am playing it.

HD's picture

Just a quick detour - anyone know where that wiki photo was taken? That is one hell of a beautiful location (if you ignore the half naked man).

monopoly's picture

Cannot wait for the lawsuits on FB to start. Oh, that is going to be a fun time. What a crock of shit that stock is. I never logged on to face book.0 interst and I like my privacy.

My daughter does though, a lot. I asked her how much has she bought from the ads on FB. She advised, "Dad, you kidding, none of us buy anything, we just "chat and share pictures". 

LawsofPhysics's picture

Precisely, zero revenues, but hey, homeland security will know exactly where she is and who she associates with.  Why does this not make us all feel warm and fuzzy?