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Euphoria Shifts From Stocks To Commodities

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Silver and Gold remain the major outperformers year-to-date but the rest of commodities - most notably oil is catching up very fast having over taken stocks this week. It appears that the new-found flood of liquidity that we have been so passionately banging the table on for weeks, has found its way into the energy complex as European Sovereigns, European Financials, European Stocks, and US Stocks have all flattened or turned down as Crude and WTI surge. And as a hint to anyone who hasn't jumped on this tidal movement yet, one thing to note is that unlike stocks, commodities always have the risk of marginal or weak hands being shaken out via CME...margin hikes.

Year to date performance shows Crude is now outperforming US equities and closing in on Gold's great run. Silver remains the double-levered liquidity trade-d'annee.

 

But how has the flood of liquidity dooshed   sloshed around the world of global assets...

(Click chart for larger version)

It appears there have been five periods to this post LTRO love-fest with nominal values of assets.

1) Post the LTRO and through January (black dotted rectangle), markets generally tracked each other higher in a narrow liquidity and euphoria-driven range with US Stocks having a higher beta than most assets in general (as everything was floated up with the best performers being the worst performers of last year); this bullet-proof rally had just begun to fade as everyone waited for something real to confirm what was before their eyes...

 

2) As January ended and February began, the most wondrously 'adjusted' NFP print in the US re-engaged the liquidity pump and those most beaten down of last year's assets were grabbed with a vengeance once again as European Stocks, US Stocks, European Sovereigns & Financials, and Brent Crude all levitating rapidly while WTI Crude fell (as the spread rose on Middle-East tensions). European stocks were the major winner in this period as financials flew on the LTRO solution and so the liquidity sloshed into that bucket more broadly.

 

3) The impressive short-squeezing dash-for-trash 'its real coz the BLS says it is' rally continued until a week into February when European concerns reared their ugly heads with badly weaker macro data in Europe (plus a re-emergence of Greek contagion concerns as Portugal blew) dragging European credit (Sovereign and Financials) considerably weaker and European stocks sideways to modestly down. Maybe the LTRO expectations had finally run out of juice. Liquidity sloshed back into US equities (don't worry we're decoupling) and WTI Crude (decoupling and Iran) - hoorah...

 

4) This lasted til last week when credit markets really took a turn for the worse and stocks began to follow but the flood of liquidity was not to be stopped and together with some entirely confusing constantly contradictory newsflow from European leaders that all was well in Greece and that China would not suffer a hard landing every risk asset rose in value - spurred on by yet another liquidity flood from a surprise RRR cut by China (which seemed to shake the last weak shorts out as we have drifted since). However, it seems that the need for China to do this (concern that it must be bad for them to do this) along with concerns over the next LTRO and the growing stigma the market is pricing into European banks who used it seemed to slow the liquidity surge into broad equity and credit risk assets and...

 

5) The energy complex was saturated with liquidity pressures. As Iran tensions rose, the surge in Brent and WTI (and Tapis) crude prices reflects not just the sabre-rattling and supply concerns (which havent changed dramatically in a day or two) but much more simply the only thing that matters - central bank largesse. The last week has seen US and European equity and credit markets slide lower - with Europe underperforming the US (decoupling hopes again and the fact that the US is a hot and open market that will always enable that liquidity to flow more easily).

 

Meanwhile Gold and Silver have cruised comfortably higher on the growing realization that slowly but surely investors need real value protection not nominal wealth - no matter which liquidity bucket the printing press is spewing into.

The problem now - as John Burbank of Passport Capital so well described is, the oil complex won't stop until the economy's back is broken as there is nowhere for the liquidity to flow given the negative feedback loops all the central banks in the world have created.

 

With LTRO 2 already priced in, and the Fed having been handed the baton of printing by the rest of the world's central banks this weekend at the G20 meetings, we suspect the liquidity will remain pumping in Oil until the CME steps on its throat or someone disappoints a perilously over-the-top market for stocks (and slightly less so credit now as it has started to awaken from its risk slumber) with a PSI deal fail, disappointing LTRO, new record Oil, or our favorite the unknown unknown consequence.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:30 | 2194395 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Euphoria is a good thing in small doses.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:33 | 2194406 trav7777
trav7777's picture

cocaine is a helluva drug

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:36 | 2194527 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Only if it hasn't been "stepped on" too hard...........I'm just sayin'

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:36 | 2194529 Ancona
Ancona's picture

.......You know......like Greece's balls?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:16 | 2194569 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Fuck Bernanke.  I am at the Easy Tiger wearing overalls.  Drinks are on me for the next two hours.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:44 | 2194636 RobD
RobD's picture

Can I make it there in a cab from Reno? I've already had a couple of beers dammit!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:50 | 2194639 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Uncle Warren says to try NetJets.

Enjoy Austin's finest beer, sausage, pretzels, and cheese.  All free if you can get here in an hour.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:28 | 2194691 RobD
RobD's picture

mmm, sounds like a great place, though I think I will tip one from here, maybe next time :)

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:02 | 2194746 johnu1978
johnu1978's picture

Tell Uncle Warren to stop running his Gayco commercials!

 

-John
http://www.youtube.com/johnu78

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 07:22 | 2195352 vato poco
vato poco's picture

Austin's only got the worst traffic in Texas. You can't get *any*where in an hour. "Call a place a paradise, kiss it goodbye."

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 10:30 | 2195471 ndotken
ndotken's picture

herd mentality ... but the view never changes if you're in the back of the herd

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:38 | 2194532 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The drug trade has been a real money maker ever since the British Empire saw how profitable the black market opium trade was.  The money from the Golden Triangle, the Mexican drug lords, etc. where do you think they went to 'make that money clean'?  Certainly not Wall Street!  /sarcasm

Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute, "Time to Break Up the Media Monopoly"

http://www.capitalresearchinstitute.org

"As everyone knows by now, the US election cycle is in full swing.  Concerned about the economy?  The welfare of the nation?  What kind of country your grandkids will grow up in?  If you listen to the mainstream media (msm) then you 'know' the answer is to choose a political party, stick with them, and everything will work out fine...  The problem is, this couldn't be further from the truth.  The political parties no longer serve the people..."

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:51 | 2194551 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

http://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/0202/feb12fab54a8589b4b0e.jpeg

 

NYSE's Richard Grasso meeting with a commander from the FARC in Colombia. Just in case ya'll forgot. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:20 | 2194593 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Romney/Paul could run as an independent. Peanut Butter and Jelly--money/organization meets actual sanity.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:27 | 2194689 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Kill yourself.

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 10:13 | 2195453 bdc63
bdc63's picture

How about Paul/Romney .... just say'in ...

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 19:40 | 2196437 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

How about Kennedy/Johnso....

Oops.

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 07:09 | 2195344 vato poco
vato poco's picture

"Drug trade has been a real moneymaker since the Brit Empire..."

Now THAT is a very interesting notion. Especially here in the US, *especially* when one starts looking at timelines. 45 seconds of web search yields this:

1907 - Panic of '07. Morgan (essentially) essentially bails out the country's banking system, thus "saving" the country and maybe more imprtantly, Teddy Roosevelt's rep. How might a grateful nation - or its banking/political class - repay Pierpont for his wonderfulness? And maybe throw in a little sumthin' sumthin' for themselves?

1913 - Federal Reserve System created: bankers happy

1913 - 16th and 17th amendments allegedly ratified. Income tax & direct election of Senators: politicians happy.

1914 - Harrison Act passed. Opium made illegal. Street price of opium rises.

1919 - Supreme Court ok's expanded Harrison Act: and we're off to the races.

1924 - Heroin made illegal.

1932 - United States Narcotic Act. Maryjane now illegal. **Big** bucks can now be made in The Drug Trade, as in days of yore.

etc etc etc. When viewed this way, it couldn't be clearer.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:15 | 2194772 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

US Stocks have flattened or turned down. Gee, I must have missed that. My portfolio and the Dow is doing fine.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:58 | 2194469 Freddie
Freddie's picture

"liquidity has douche'd around the world.."  LOL!

Hope & Change with The Bernank and hopey Islamic douches.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:32 | 2194698 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Barry Soetoro is as much a Muslim as Urban II was a Christian.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:47 | 2194722 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Freddy's on another Friday night gas-huffing binge.

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:44 | 2194805 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Hat Tip to Ann Barnhardt
BarnhardtPatrickHenrySpeech.mp4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cup9CgSjr9g (8:03)

who...

Hat Tips... to BrutallyHonest.org

who...

Hat Tips... to Taylor Mali

who... did this...

Killing the Speech - "Modern" Kids losing Language and Confidence? - Observed/Poem by Taylor Mali
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=hnjJvzprjN0 (2:46)

~//~

Grateful Dead Touch Of Grey Video (Band In Bones)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmT6udys8Tc (4:43)

Grateful Dead - Touch of Grey
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOaXTg3nAuY (5:49)

Long Cool Woman in a Black Dress - The Hollies
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lP94PlEtsEQ (3:15)

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:31 | 2194397 TalkToLind
TalkToLind's picture

You should have stacked, Bitchez!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:33 | 2194409 yabyum
yabyum's picture

You still can stack. Buy a little each payday, befriend your local coin momger!!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:26 | 2194794 espirit
espirit's picture

Just don't stack fiat, you just never know who printed that $50 or $100 dollah bill.  First fake bonds, now fake fiatscos.

Phyzz in the hand is the only real money.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-could-pressure-north-korea-tomorrow-quit-100-094000585.html

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:01 | 2194474 SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

Seems Blythe and The Morgue weren't too happy about the euphoria in silver.

The cartel dropped 102.5 MILLION paper ounces of silver on the market in only 7 minutes this afternoon...only to see silver perform an OUTSIDE REVERSAL!!
Check out the netdania 1 minute volume/ price chart:

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2012/02/cartel-dumps-1025-million-ounces-of.html

Blythe just had an MI.... LOL

-Doc

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:39 | 2194536 s2man
s2man's picture

Thanks, Doc.  That's sweet

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:05 | 2194659 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Man, that is fantastic!  ROFL!!  Great news to end a Friday with.

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 00:04 | 2195033 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Hope they've got them spankin' new toilets, 'cuz someone's shittin' bricks!

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 13:07 | 2195446 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

A friend who has traded silver in her own account off and on for years, checked her data and saw the price movement but NOT the volume.  Could that be bad data from Netdania?  She was using Esignal and saw the max 1 minute volume at the spike low at 105.

[after sending a closeup of the chart to my friend, she saw it was spot -- her data was futures.  It is still such an extraordinary event that some confirmation would be good. There have been erroneous data feed and charts.  But if that data is good . . .  WOW!]

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:21 | 2194596 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i've always found it hilarious that people would think you could break a bank with gold. Silver on the other hand...

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:22 | 2194779 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Normally something like that will break silver back down below 30.

Now suppose they print imaginary shares over the weekend and dump 100 million paper ounces into the silver pit?

I have always said paper burn paper.... but now see Blythe for the truly enemy of Metals followed by a thought of how many imaginary ounces are ON the market?

This is going to be very interesting.

Blythe is stuck.

If they do this again, it goes either way. From my point of view I am in the money.... excepting that stupid lakeside trip we had just got back from... or I can back the truck and stack some more.

I am drifting off to sleep dreaming of $1000 per ounce or 1000 ounces of (Am a very long way from that goal...) silver. And I think that may happen someday. Why should Silver be the runt while all the others are trading in 4 figures?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:30 | 2194801 espirit
Sat, 02/25/2012 - 04:12 | 2195272 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

What's her prognosis, Doc?

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 09:10 | 2195413 buckethead
buckethead's picture

Someone BTFDs?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:32 | 2194404 Fortunes Favor
Fortunes Favor's picture

Stalking The Bear: Trouble In Transports

http://seekingalpha.com/article/391391-stalking-the-bear-trouble-in-transports

Strong Oil prices may be the culprit

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 00:05 | 2195035 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Nah.  Someone shot the Transport Unicorn.

 

Either that, or someone got a glimpse at some real numbers, for once....

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:33 | 2194407 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Crude is technically overbought, the dollar is oversold, the Iran story is overhyped, the US is considering to release some oil out of the national reserves, and Saudi Arabia is increasing supply, everybody is screaming about high gas prices. Prepare for a pullback before this rally continues. I think the same applies to PMs.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:39 | 2194422 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I read the whole thing and here is what I think:

At 78.36 I think the dollar is about 6% higher than this time last year with infinite more printing occuring

At 35.51 we are still 14 dollars lower than this time last year with infinitely more instability in currencys worldwide

At...well, housing we just saw that

At...well, we just saw the price of oil

At...well, at least I can still afford to play my Harmonica...

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:06 | 2194485 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Last year arround the risk of real supply disruptions from Libya was significantly higher than this time arround from Iran. Economic activity was higher (take for instance US energy consumtion, BDI, even the cooked GDP numbers).

The DXY has become basicly irrelevant imho, because everyone is inflating like there's no tomorrow. As the DXY is heavily EUR weighted, it's basicly a comparison between trash ($) and garbage (€). The only use I have for the DXY is to put it into relation to commodity prices and to figure out which fiat currency is currently overbought/oversold. The DXY beeing 6% higher this year arround than last year actually means that oil/gold etc. will go higher once the $ weakens further (in € terms Brent is at all time highs...). But in the short term the DXY is oversold, so I expect commodities to fall somewhat in $ terms. Additionally, WTI and Brent quite significantly are overbought. Gold, silver are close to beeing overbought.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:05 | 2194660 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Everyone is inflating like there is no tomorrow?  Ex-fucking-actly! 

Synchronized diving, bitchezzz!!!!!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:32 | 2194809 espirit
Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:44 | 2194429 Frastric
Frastric's picture

Purlease! This ain't about technicals anymore. Only three things really determine oil's price now: central bank liquidity, CME margin hikes and GDP growth (or lack of). The other factors are just noise...

But there will be some crazy volatility along the way as oil (WTI in particular) goes to $150 and beyond...

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:48 | 2194444 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Iran news have driven the price during the last months. ZH has documented this very well.

I did this too, over here (I actually started covering it even before ZH did): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?322176-Oil-and-gold-prices-set-to-soar-on-the-developing-IRAN-story&p=3639233

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 10:25 | 2195464 bdc63
bdc63's picture

I see it a bit differently.

I agree with 1). central bank liquidity and 2). CME margin hikes.

Not so much GDP ... unless there are HUGE unexpected swings that they can't figure out how to hide or lie about (in the short term at least)

But I would add

3). Iran and general middle east unrest & sabor rattling

4). Strategic Oil Reserve releases (or even just the 'discussion' of releases)

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:33 | 2194522 jomama
jomama's picture

it's a (sort of) free country!  

don't let us keep you from taking your own advice.  that is, if you really are.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:27 | 2194602 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

ignore the price of oil entirely and go long the natural gas technology play. the "Big Oil/Big Mind-martian" play is getting killed. The only people who have are "fereiners"--and we need to start playing nice now. of course "when we're killing everyone" that's not easy. maybe we can start with Vets here at home!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:37 | 2194624 nmewn
nmewn's picture

There ya go!

"ignore the price of oil entirely and go long the natural gas technology play."

I'm going long pond scum!!!

"Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Energy Department plans to invest $14 million to make transportation fuels out of algae, according to the White House.

“We could replace up to 17 percent of the oil we import for transportation with this fuel that we can grow right here in the United States,” President Barack Obama said today in Miami during a speech on energy policy."

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-23/u-s-to-invest-14-million-for-algae-biofuels-white-house-says.html

When unicorn farts just won't do anymore ;-)

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:09 | 2194662 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Heh.  Yep, I saw that one today.  And I remember back when he said if we keep our tires inflated we wouldn't even need to drill for oil.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akjXqfvLu28

That guy is just full of solutions.   What's next, burning dead people to heat my swimming pool?  Oh, wait...

 http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2012/02/24/10494749-an-insult-dead-bodies-to-heat-uk-swimming-pool

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:21 | 2194678 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I'm recommending that every one fill their car tires with helium and wear a propellor hat...

Also, tesla coils on that magical 38th parallel for free energy from the (n+3)!/n! dimension...

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:42 | 2194718 VelvetHog
VelvetHog's picture

Sorry, helicopter Benny had cornered the market on those hats.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:39 | 2194715 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Well our pinky extended elite class has always told us we should be just like europe...just give over to the darkside and think of the energy savings for the whole, maybe if they could be coaxed into leading by example ;-)

Speaking of elites, I see Michelle Antoinette just completed her sixteenth vacation in three years.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/301597/20120220/michelle-obama-s-skiing-vacation-aspen-photos.htm

That's nice. It has to be exhausting work, scheduling all those vacations.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:16 | 2194774 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Correct.  This is why she referred to being the first lady as "hell".  All those vacations, exotic white house parties, expensive messages, top shelf everything, his n hers air force one jets, arugula, and so on.  It's not that she's greedy, she's just doin her best to pass the time in hell.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:34 | 2194812 nmewn
nmewn's picture

She's doin a helluva job ;-)

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:48 | 2194833 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Ain't no wife of mine will do all that.

UGH...

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 23:06 | 2194875 nmewn
nmewn's picture

It's an incredible snub of the public trust.

On the one hand, we have to all do our part...all pull together, everyone scrimp & save & sacrifice...blah blah blah. On the other...off to the coast of Spain, the coast of Hawaii, Martha's Vineyard, Copenhagen, ski resorts.

Hell within the first month they were flying to New York for a damned dinner!!!...and then turn on a dime and speak to the plebes about corporate jets & manmade global warming...lol.

It's absolutely surreal.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:40 | 2194717 VelvetHog
VelvetHog's picture

"When unicorn farts just won't do anymore ;-)" 

 

Cheap, warm Modelo out my nose.  You made my day.  Thanks.  LOL!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:42 | 2194825 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I haven't even got into golden eagle feather plucking machines they call wind mills yet. They raised the allowable death count ratio on eagles to accomodate this new "green" policy.

Only from the minds of bureaucrats.

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 04:21 | 2195277 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

It's the eagles' fault, the windmills have the right-of-way! :>D

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 04:29 | 2195278 caerus
caerus's picture

also they fired don felder

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 07:46 | 2195365 nmewn
nmewn's picture

They always go after Eagles swinging "axes"...after all, they're defending the tree's.

He's also a Cracker from Florida, a bonus ;-)

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:33 | 2194408 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

banks using CB money like crack addicts...

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:38 | 2194420 blindman
blindman's picture

The Real Hunt Brothers Story
Posted on February 24, 2012 by maxkeiser
.
http://maxkeiser.com/2012/02/24/the-real-hunt-brothers-story/#comment-44...
.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article30620.htm#idc-cover
Let Your Life Be a Friction to Stop the Machine
This Is A Must Watch Video
A brief and crucial history of the United States
.
THE PURE AND SIMPLE TRUTH PT 3 (who are we and why are we here?) to Thrive
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WHUdK3dBEo&feature=player_embedded

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:12 | 2194495 flacon
flacon's picture

I stopped watching that propaganda video ("let your life be a friction...") when he said this: 

"There is no provision for social good in capitalist theory"

 

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:15 | 2194586 blindman
blindman's picture

oh well, world wars I and II and perhaps III will
be told as social good stories, notice the term
"told". they will not be lived as told, never are.
in capitalist theory you finance both warring parties
until such time a clear victor is identified and then
you demand reparations be paid by the loser. this
is the height of social good in theory. i say reflect
on the difference of quantitative and qualitative
concerns, there be the ultimate resolution.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:16 | 2194503 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

What a load of crap.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:39 | 2194587 blindman
blindman's picture

says who?
in the end we all get exactly what we
deserve; either that or much less,
praise be to no-thing.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:46 | 2194436 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I think you have a great arguement Tyler.  One thing is for sure, in my book though. The Australian dollar ( risk/commodity), isn't reflecting that in the currency markets. The covering via eur/aud and the anemic aud/usd trade this week, lead me to some risk aversion in the short/medium term. T-10's are under 2%, and you also mentioned that (7yr) auction this week.

  The eur/usd short covering, and LTRO hopium drove that trade today. The crosses via (eur/jpy- aud/jpy), drove the trade as well.

 I'll take the the Aussie side of the cross, vs the Yen next week. When the market softens the (aud will fall even harder than the euro), as there is more gap(risk), to fill bottom side.

 

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 07:14 | 2195349 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Interesting Yen Cross....I am short the AUD and EUR vs the USD....and short the Yen too.....methinks something's on the horizon here......like....a cliff.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:47 | 2194443 JennaChick
JennaChick's picture

Some falks are selling crude oil call options here. June 200 strike for example. Read it from Spada Capital website. Does it make sense? 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:47 | 2194832 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Ingmar (oops, I mean JennaChick) continued spamming thusly:

Some falks are selling crude oil call options here. June 200 strike for example. Read it from Spada Capital website. Does it make sense?

Do you mean Spada Capital, the Estonian spam factory associated with Armada Markets, the imitation lutefisk factory? Examine the following. Does it make sense?

Armada Markets (a division of Spada Capital and Drycleaning), an industry leader in shilling their stupid site by spamming the comments section of blogs, has entered production of their latest product: imitation ljutefisk. Their proprietary process combines recycled Estonian stray dogs, fish found floating in the harbor, and a unique blend of chemicals to produce imitation ljutefisk that seems so real, you'll swear that you're in Njorway. This is your chance to get in on the ocean floor of the investment opportunity of a lifetime.

Check it out now at armadamarkets.con !!!1!

Ask for Ingmar, the guy with dog breath that smells like seven-day-old Estonian Carp.

Examine portions of the results of whois queries for armadamarkets.com and spadacapital.com below. Does it make sense?

domain:                       armadamarkets.com
expiration_date:              0000-00-00 00:00:00
last_update:                  2011-12-04 11:40:10
admin-c-name:                 Ingmar Mattus
admin-c-organization:         Armada Markets AS
admin-c-type:                 PERSON
admin-c-address:              Tornimäe 7-71
admin-c-postcode:             10145
admin-c-city:                 Tallinn
admin-c-country:              EE
admin-c-phone:                +37255519579
admin-c-email:                info@armadamarkets.ee

Domain name: spadacapital.com

Registrant Contact:
   Spada Capital LLC
   Ingmar Mattus ()

   Fax:
   Tornimae 7
   Tallinn, Harjumaa 10145
   EE

This spam smells like ljutefjisk, Ingmar.

armadamarkets.com Ingmar Mattus rectal prolapse Spada Capital terror bomb anthrax shopping mall crop duster polonium Charles Nelson Reilly claymore mine grenade launcher lutefisk IED assassination hijack Al Qaida ricin electromagnetic pulse RPG Federal Reserve CIA Mossad Lady Gaga detonator Lemmiwinks Hezbollah Guantanamo Santorum fisting plutonium Juarez Cayman Islands nuclear trigger Cleveland Steamer ljutefisk Howard Cosell Forex Fx Trading LMAX parrot and parakeet training tape beri beri carbuncle RPG clostridium Olde Frothingslosh ebola Dimona smuggling roachclip Butthole Surfers bongwater National Reconnaissance Office Don Rickles Backstreet Boys steganography Lee van Cleef kaopectate

 

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 00:10 | 2195044 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Well, I guess I'm glad it's not Ingsoc, at least....

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:50 | 2194450 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

A small shakeout from margin hikes will be the last chance to catch this train.

This appears to be a primary impulse wave wirh perfect macro economic tail winds to give commodities a boost.

Dont miss out!

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 10:29 | 2195469 bdc63
bdc63's picture

its an election year.  they will throw everything they have at this to try and slow it down.  expect multiple margin hikes, strategic oil reserve releases, lots of threatening language about marching those evil speculators into a congressional hearing ....

they will do whatever they have to in orde to slow it down ... but to your point, they ain't gonna stop it ...

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:51 | 2194455 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Why would I want to buy something real when I can own a little piece of paper that says I own a little piece of a business? Well, ok, I don't really own it in the sense that stockholders are the last in line in the capital structure. So what I really own is a concept. Well, those concepts are actually patented and I don't own the patents. So I guess what I'm saying is I own a piece of enthusiasm: it goes up on optimism, and down on pessimism. A feeling. Backed by a paper receipt for such. Well, now that stock certificates are history, you could say that I own a virtual receipt for a piece of enthusiasm. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:45 | 2194543 s2man
s2man's picture

Yes, but you can fit lots of those pieces of paper in your safe.  The shelves in my basement are full of food and ammo, and my attic is full of toilet paper. What was I thinking?  Paper would have been sooo much easier...

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:24 | 2194788 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

1.23 a roll for 15 rolls of paper towels on sale over the weekend. One side of the room is turning into paper central with Toilet and Paper Paper...

Coffee is next. I am planning a 24 can buy at 10.00 per next week.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:52 | 2194460 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Geesh, so Nancy was right afterall?? It is those evil speculators.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:56 | 2194470 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Have faith in market fundamentalism, my friend, and always listen to your Uncle Warren. It's that kind of clean living that leads to success. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:30 | 2194611 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

explain the spread between natural gas and oil. in under one sentence. preferably one word...like..."corruption" for example.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:29 | 2194693 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Inflexible paradigms.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:09 | 2194757 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Wait...shouldn't the administration be sending the SEC after these "evil oil speculators" or sumpin? 

I vote for Wonder Woman Pelosi to lead the charge!!!

Paging Banzai on the Nana photo shop ;-) 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:55 | 2194467 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

That's reality shifting from ponzi paper flammable bullshit to the realities that govern peoples lives - tangible assets. Problem is, investment speculation is going to make us all bleed for the cost of living as a result. Go long copper, lead, silver, fuel, food, land, defenses. If you are wrong, you can cash in assets, and afford to live in the brave new world. If you are right, you are prepared to survive and to live in the brave new world. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:53 | 2194553 s2man
s2man's picture

Nice, SG.  That's the most succinct, least panicky reason for prep'ing I have read.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:04 | 2194479 adr
adr's picture

I think we all know the market is broken. You know what, Cramer, Pisani, and the rest of the bullshit brigade knows it is too. Cramer has even said so on the air. If you had them in a closed room I bet they admit to fueling the con because they believe there is no other choice.

But what are they supposed to do? Their living depends on the stupid market. Without it, where is Cramer and the other thousand talking heads going to work? They aren't qualified to flip burgers.

The con goes on because of the fortunes that have been made manipulating the stock market. Everyone in power depends on equities increasing in value to fund their lifestyle. Can you honestly say the hedge fund managers earned their money? Or government officials?

If you buy a stock and it increases in value, did you earn that value? Did you work for it? Just like winning the lottery it is nothing but a windfall. Just like the lottery the money doesn't have any value because it wasn't earned, it is usually wasted on excess. Just like a crackhead the stock market big shots don't care who they hurt to get the cash they need for their next high.

Bernanke doesn't print because it will help average Americans or help the housing market. He knows it won't. But what is he going to do, let the people who put him in power lose their fortunes and have to beg a hard working American for table scraps.

The rich would rahter die than give up the manipulated fraud that grants them fortune without labor. In the end that is the only answer. Tyranny can only be conqured through the death of the tyrant. Oil will fall t $20 a barrel when the first central banker is hung in a square, when the first hedge fund manager splats on the pavement of Fifth Ave, thrown from their highrise penthouse.

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 10:37 | 2195481 bdc63
bdc63's picture

I feel like I've heard this before ... It's dialog straight out of Dr. Zhivago, right? ...

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:18 | 2194505 alpharack
alpharack's picture

Time to scale into your gold holdings. I tell ya, this barbaric relic is going for 2500 usd.Fuck you ben bernanke. Shut up and pump in more liquidity into the ailing system and trash that crappy USD.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:22 | 2194514 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Of course here in Canada it is what we fondly call RRSP Season - every year for eons we have been brainwashed into the concept of putting our dollars into RRSP's - screw it - for the first time in some years I have taken those dollars and bought silver maples and gold maples - done with the banks and our gov't.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:44 | 2194542 itchy166
itchy166's picture

I love silver maples, and thankfully you are not a terrorist in Canada yet for buying them.  (but watch out for the American drones coming over the border.)

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:27 | 2194519 devo
devo's picture

I hope the hike the s**t out of margin requirements. I want to trade all my cash for gold.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:46 | 2194544 itchy166
itchy166's picture

Investing is getting easy.  Buy ANYTHING and you will be doing better than holding paper.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:46 | 2194546 itchy166
itchy166's picture

...except an SUV

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:59 | 2194564 s2man
s2man's picture

Yup.  The food I stocked last year is up 13%. And no counter-party risk. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:51 | 2194836 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Yeah, but you can't eat... ah.  Oops.  Never mind.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:26 | 2194603 greensnacks
greensnacks's picture

Food commodities, gold miners and a big oil polluter.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:46 | 2194545 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

All this bouncing around is caused by hyperinflation and concentrated wealth.  You can give a banker a trillion dollars.  It doesn't mean he will make the right bet.  But eventually, the real market strips him of his assets when sells low and never gives them back. The real market knows what is coming and grinds out a flawless chess match vs the checker playing banker.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:55 | 2194556 s2man
s2man's picture

I am long commodities, but I don't have to worry about margin hikes.  I buy wheat and sugar in 25lb sacks.  Rice in 50lb. ;-)

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:13 | 2194583 itchy166
itchy166's picture

Food by the pound, silver and gold by the ounce, and lead by the round...

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:25 | 2194792 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Actually 100% copper or other lead free metal, but who cares, it still makes some serious life ending holes.

And yes I have some good Lead slug or Lead hardcast for large game.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:56 | 2194652 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Don't forget yer beans!  You could use a little meat on dem bones, bub.

 

Also - and you've prolly thought this through - vitamins, meds (including "excesses" of any old prescriptions), hygiene stuff, etc.  And for "trade", cigarettes are great, because they come in singles, packs and cartons.  Just "food" for thought.  ;)

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:56 | 2194849 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Here are some more trade ideas for you.

  Black pepper.

  Cocoa.

  Cinnamon.

Do you know how people used to pay for black pepper in Europe in the middle ages?  Get a scale.  Put pepper on one side, gold on the other side.  When the scale is balanced, you paid for the pepper.

Unground pepper (peppercorns),  well sealed and stored, will last for many years.

Just sayin.

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 10:39 | 2195482 bdc63
bdc63's picture

that sounds really complicated ... can't I just buy McCormick common stock and be done with it ....

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:22 | 2194679 RobD
RobD's picture

Right on s2man, I have almost 3 tons of dry goods stored up. A mixture of wheat, rice, corn, sugar and beans, plus gallons of fats and lots of spices to make it edible. Canned meats are also in storage for the amino acids and B-12 not found in beans.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:58 | 2194853 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

How do you do long-term storage of fats?

I don't have a good way, other than in a freezer.  ( Or in my body, goddammit. )

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 10:06 | 2195448 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Natural coconut oil is good for about 3 years, un-refrigerated.  It is also extremely healthy food.  Found these folks about a year ago--great service, great quality:  tropicaltraditions.com

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 10:54 | 2195493 RobD
RobD's picture

That is the problem with fat(long term storage). For vegetable oil you have to rotate them out as they will go rancid but like above some of the solid fats will last longer but you will still need to rotate them out or use them up.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:34 | 2194702 VelvetHog
VelvetHog's picture

IF YOU SEE SOMETHING, SAY SOMETHING.

You ain't one o' them tearorists is ya?   JK

 

How do you store it to keep the rodentia out?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:49 | 2194726 RobD
RobD's picture

I put the dry goods in 6 gallon Mylar bags(about 33lbs of goods) and add a oxygen absorber and shoot some co2 in to move out the air and then heat seal it. Then I put it in a 50 gallon plastic or steel barrel. Add in a desiccant box(not in the beans as they may get to dry) to obsorb any moister that may get in the barrel and the food should store for at least 20 years.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:58 | 2194561 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

I give my mother shit everytime I see her for not warning me about Banksters when I was a child.

They BumFuck me everyday now.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:00 | 2194566 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

I hate when they do that - and they smile.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:02 | 2194574 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Is that Euphoria or Panic?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:10 | 2194581 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

Bernanke and all his friends print themselves money for nothing and then use it to drive up the price of  commodities. Then common folk pay for it twice, first by paying higher prices at the pump and in the supermarket. Then they pay for it a second time because they're brainwashed into thinking that they're paying off some imaginary "national debt" when in actually its just a bunch of bankers with unlimited credit on a spending spree. Nice scam

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:38 | 2194820 espirit
Sat, 02/25/2012 - 08:40 | 2195392 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

Actually, there isn't a country in the world that doesn't counterfeit the all mighty dollar. That's why Ben is out printing them. We got a case of the hyperinflationz

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:24 | 2194598 non_anon
non_anon's picture

rope-a-dope

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:43 | 2194635 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

When can we start killing our hereditary rulers, the financial oligarchs?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:51 | 2194642 Timmay
Timmay's picture

This helps Iran, doesn 't it? Russia too.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:11 | 2194671 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea I dont really think its all coming up roses for the Israel/US camp.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:09 | 2194667 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

There is no exchange for good old fashioned arable land. And you want to say "liquidity doesn't flow there"? Just ask Ted Turner. That's the FIRST place it flows to from "the big money" if there's an inflation tsunami suddenly rolling in. Needless to say "there's more of that in the USA than anywhere else on earth." We'll even throw the roads and bridges in for free...

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:13 | 2194675 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Just one small point: gold is NOT a commodity.

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 23:02 | 2194863 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

But the king of Saudi Arabia has a commode made of it....

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:17 | 2194676 Robslob
Robslob's picture

 

 

Somebody please remind me again what happened in 2008...was is stocks that sold off first or commodities?

What went up in 2008?

Did that mean gold was on sale? >sarc>

Bottom line when the S hits the F all bets are off and everything is going down...but it will all be relative to what is physically available:

Food, gas, gold, silver, ammo, water...?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:03 | 2194748 surf0766
surf0766's picture

IN Spring 2008 the dollar fell and continued to fall causing oil to go up. I am not sure at which point in early 2008 when oil and the dow began to move in opposite directions. I do recall that by the height of gas prices ( Around April) that everyone saw the disconnect. I can't comment on gold at that time. We saw the disconnect earlier this week with oil and the Dow but in a much smaller way. Somehow QE3 is underway. Question to the size of the move in M2

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:41 | 2194712 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Commodities indeed.  Oil at any margin must be bought to keep the economy moving.  I think that's pretty well understood.

This PressTV interview is worth watching.  I found it be be quite insightful.

'Ban on Iran oil shakes Obama admin'

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/228422.html

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:40 | 2194714 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Bernanks tradition shall kick in.


Korn- Counting on Me 

Fuck you Central Planners!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:51 | 2194729 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Huh.  This is wierd.

Regulators this afternoon closed Little Falls-based Home Savings of America, including two branches in California. No financial institution could be found to take it over, so depositors will have to wait for a check from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which was appointed receiver. Loan customers should continue to make payments as usual, the FDIC said in a press release.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:26 | 2194795 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Checks that will take up to 10 years if ever right?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:55 | 2194736 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I have to laugh.(under my breath) About my Mother and CASH!

  Never hand a SCORNED woman a wad  of cash, or a credit card! I dare anyone to " OPPOSE" my factual thoughts!

   Signed, Clint Eastwood

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:56 | 2194738 surf0766
surf0766's picture

QE3 underway

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:07 | 2194755 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

AUGUST. Just after the Strategic Petroleum ( RELEASE} 125bbl.

 Sort of   "- l -"    UNICORN!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:28 | 2194797 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I shit a marble and have a hernia every time I hear of the SOR Releases....

I want them to start digging out new limestone caverns around the USA and FILL them damn things WITH MORE Reserve goddamn it.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:07 | 2194756 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

is there anything to this?

While industrial silver demand from emerging markets was strong in 2011, Walter de Wet, strategist in London for South African bullion and investment bank Standard Bank, warns that China's new demand for silver "is not very strong at the moment," highlighting a sharp decline in Shanghai premiums -- over and above the London price, which acts as the world benchmark -- down from as much as $5 per ounce last summer to below 50 cents in February.

Standard Bank argues that Chinese warehouses currently hold enough silver to meet the country's industrial demand for 15 months. That surplus has risen sharply from 12 months' worth in 2011

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:17 | 2194777 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Oh, Gold is a commoditiy now. How interesting. No one knows what the price of oil will be in 90 days. NO one. don't be seduced by conversation. There are reality based analysis to the effect that prices may decline rather than increase. Once again; no one knows.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:30 | 2194802 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

No one eh?

My check book this very week.

Sunday gas. 3.36 gallon. Monday pm 3.45 gallon. Wed 3.51 gallon. Tonight 3.70 gallon and that DOES NOT include GOLD. Just silver.

Both coasts report 5+ in spots and one or two in Florida is over 6.00

I expect 10+ cents each 24 hours here in the south until War breaks out or until hurricane season starts.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:31 | 2194808 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

unknownunknownconsequenceconsequence

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:54 | 2194844 Fortunes Favor
Fortunes Favor's picture

Oil is running and transports are feeling the pain...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/391391-stalking-the-bear-trouble-in-transports

Stalking The Bear: Trouble In Transports

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 23:09 | 2194879 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Retail Cocktail/ 46 other uses for petroleum.  Lipstick/ nylons) Nightclubs. AirCraft cano[pies(  sr-71 > SIX MACH?

     Scram Jets and all ?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 23:35 | 2194955 connda
connda's picture

With Nancy (Botox) Pelosi and other politicos banging the drum against the evil speculators of oil futures, I find it interesting that the CME has not jacked up maintenance margins 2 or 3 times like the do with precious metals.....

...oh shit!  Never mind...my bad.  I forgot that this is a rigged market also. Who benefits?  Hummm?

 

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 00:13 | 2195029 Demogorgon
Demogorgon's picture

2008 all over again. Indices soaring? Check. Energy climbing? Check. And let's add some fuel to the fire that we didn't in '08...infinate liquidity! I'm sure it will all work out. Thanks Ben!

The FIAT bubble business cycle is compressing. How many FIAT currencies in history have won the fight against the inevitable failure of FIAT and deflated their currency in order to save it? Oh, that's right, none. Glad we've learned from our mistakes.

 

I hope the sarcasm comes across. Never quite sure with the internet...

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 00:53 | 2195123 plata pura
plata pura's picture

Water be the commodity that no other can wear its jock; void of contestation.

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 01:08 | 2195143 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Darn Tyler! That exponential FLOW. is Simplistic! < BLaST>

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 01:12 | 2195151 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Sunday open. GAP close. ASIA has been disrespectful

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 02:26 | 2195215 caerus
caerus's picture

so they lowered margins...raid or not someone tried to dump a lot of paper ag on friday

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 11:19 | 2195519 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Beware the ides of March.

Obumma and Netalot meet early in month.

12th  PSI cutoff.

14th.BLS jobs report where seasonal adjustment drops out.

15th Ceridian index print.

20th Greek default CDS trigger.

22/23 Israel attacks Iran.

CDS counterparties use Force Majeure clause to avoid paying.

Bank runs everywhere.

Somewhere in between ,margin increase drops PMs 20% and hot money dumpa

equities and swoops into PMs.Market collapses.

Perfect cascade scenario !

 

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 17:36 | 2196224 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

I can't  wait for the all-in call from the gold and oil pumpers to start next week.

Just like 2008 I'm gonna make another million shorting you dipshits. BTW thanks for buying my 1526 gold last week. Nice tidy profit. You see - the bloggers around here were right beihind me selling. They just won't tell you.

Use your goddamned head this time.

 

No  silly rabbit contrary to what Cramer says $200 dollar oil is not normal and further, 3000 dollar gold is also not normal. 3000 gold is your momma and wife getting eaten by NY zombies. And since the zionists like their mommas and are scared shitless of their wives they will not let it happen.

 

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 22:11 | 2196726 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Make sure you do a Youtube video of your bad old self blowing your already empty of brain cells head off when the margin calls start tsunami - ing your ass flat out the morning after. Go short, go all in, margin your ass to the stratosphere, and go to hell in your own hand basket. This ain't no 2008, and AIG was a fart in a windstorm compared to all of the unsecured government, bank, derivatives, CDFS's, hedge fund, and other assorted fake margin paper bullshit debt currently polluting the world financial system, much less just what is in the good 'ole USA. And, this time, there is no public money back stop available to do liar loans to the Too Big To Fail's. Yet, you are acting like a big turd blowing your own horn, as you reach for the rope tied to the toilet handle, yanking on it for a good flush. Sayonara, dickwad.

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