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EUR breaks July Lows as GRE/PTE CDS Surge
Despite some positive macro data (FRA) this morning, peripheral country bond yields (and CDS) continue to rise unwaveringly towards the endgame where European leaders are forced to actually do something as opposed to paper over gaping cracks with piecemeal solutions that are seen through by market participants within hours of release.
Greece 5Y CDS rose 210bps to 3235bps (running equiv.)
Portugal 5Y CDS rose 50bps to 1110bps.
Perhaps more worryingly Germany 5Y CDS rose 3bps to 81bps as we see similar risk transfer transmissions as were evident during the US (private to public) crisis three years ago.
EUR just broke through the mid-July lows of 1.3837, taking it back to mid-March lows.
Chart: Bloomberg
S&P futures are at the day session lows (just shy of the post-Obama lows for now) but the real pain for now remains in Europe with Main +3.5 to 177bps, XOver +11.5 to 727.5bps, SENFIN +9 to 272bps, and SUBFIN +16 to 489.5bps. It seems that sticking to 'the plan' is not working out for Messrs. Barroso, Van Rompuy, and Trichet.
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the real problem with the global economy is that bad broken shit hasn't been allowed to fail, but instead the risk has been transferred up the food chain to the sovereigns.
and with this latest round of broken windows (paul krugman, and the rest of the "destruction raises aggregate demand" crew will be pleased) it looks like we're gonna keep supporting the failed and failing.
FUCK 'EM.
http://azizonomics.com/2011/09/09/why-obama-is-failing/
And wtf is happening with the last safe haven, namely GOLD?
Down from 1870 to 1824, so -2.5% in 30 min?
This smells of the greatest manipulation ever seen...
We get fluctuations, but given where gold was ten years ago, and where it is now the manipulators with their paper shorts are failing epically.
Technicals not following.....may be in danger of bigger fall ahead...::
http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-divergence.html
yes, they want to make believe the sheeple that the price of gold builds a huge head & shoulder formation
and the sheeple get scared
but not the wolves
Betting odds on Greek hard default before the end of Autumn?
I see a hard default for Greece. Greece returning to the Drachma or some new currency. Big haircuts worldwide for banks holding Greek debt = major disruption in all markets world wide as ripples spread quickly...
Timing? Thats always the fly in the ointment. Depends on how long it takes citizens/pols of the stronger European Soverigns to recognize that the PIIGS problems can take down every economy in Europe, given the opportunity.
Greece should have been expelled from the EU as soon as it became common knowledge that Goldman Sucks helped Greece hide their true debts through off balance sheet SIVs... but that would have meant a return to moral hazard and common sense.
Maybe Greece defaults this fall... How much longer can the charade continue when Greece is forced to pay almost 100% for one year funding? Anything above 8% for one year money is usually fatal... ask any good businessman.
<quote>Greece should have been expelled from the EU as soon as it became common knowledge that Goldman Sucks helped Greece hide their true debts through off balance sheet SIVs</quote>
Can you please point me to something that supports this statement?
I tried a quick google to help but there is too much to sort through. This site broke the news though, so it is here in the archives.
It is true for Italy as well. If the EU had known about the debt they would have never been allowed to join the union. The whole thing is premised on a fraud in the first place (that they were fiscally qualified to join). If I was any of these other leaders I would demand that anyone who joined under false pretenses be thrown out. Of course, that could be everyone!!!
As someone yesterday already posted; it is FORBIDDEN for any country to exit the monetary union according to the Treaty of Lisbon.
That means they're planning to resolve the debt inhouse somehow. Instead of a default exactly this will cause civil war, the opposite of what UBS said.
Give me Liberty, or give me Death!
'Frobidden'??? Well, it was also 'forbidden' for any EU member to run a deficit of more than 3% of GDP... How is that working out?
what bullshit. the treaty of lisbon states exactly how a country can leave the european union.
its difficult but possible.
but people like you spreading this lie, and its a dangerous lie, are agents of disinformation.
better start reading and stop reposting bullshit you overheard somewhere in the "internetz"
<quote>Greece should have been expelled from the EU as soon as it became common knowledge that Goldman Sucks helped Greece hide their true debts through off balance sheet SIVs</quote>
Can you please point me to something that supports this statement?
Yeah, I can provide you with 13,700 'somethings' cause thats how many hits I got on a Google search of 'Goldman Sachs provides Greece with means to hide it's debt'... Are you incapble of a Google search? I don't know how long you have been reading ZH but the GS involvement in hiding Greek debt was covered thoroughly bt Tyler Durden/ZH.
Here is the first on the list... from Der Spiegel and translated...
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,676634,00.html
just add the B like Belgium to the PIIGS and then we shortly have the BPIIGS-mess
... under this circumstances, SOCGEN and France are most likely the next pawns to fall into the abyss
Winning!
Let me guess... you're a regular at tigerdroppings?
tigerlair.. i am an old fart.
droppings is for the college kids.
Droppings seems to attract the dumbest posters;ie, ignorant of all things related to money, finance, economics, of any site I have run across.
I go there to check recruiting, scores, and recently info about change in conference members.
Impressive D vs Oregon.
Anybody who doesn’t use stops is going to be out of business at some point. It’s not if; it’s when.
http://www.entendance.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=783&p=19216#p19216
You're up early Tyler!
Tyler never sleeps! Tyleeeeeeer Tyleeeeeeeeer!
Lagarde! More like Latard. Welcome Greece to the IMF.
SocGen getting hammered. Pretty close to 2009 lows now...
Swiss franc, baby! Pegged!
carry trade bitchezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz shit on gold, more to get in EURCHF longs.
You did just say you were an old fart, I shouldn't do this, but...you did drop that line at fight club.
This makes you wonder just what a Swiss franc is:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegging_%28sexual_practice%29
Euro/Dollar cross getting hammered...and, LBMA opens with another gold takedown attempt...Doomed to failure of course.
Swiss must be insane to strap their currency, thus their future, to the Euro. Horsesbreath might turn out to be the worst thing to happen to the Swiss since cheap digital watches.
Watching the metals takedown, I'm struck by the sheer arrogance of these bankrupt, collusive assholes. The desperation is palpable, yet they seem blinded to the realization that they've lost the high ground and they're willing to take the entire fucking world down with them. Sociopaths of the first order.
The losers can try to take the 'entire' world down with them... But commodities/gold ownership will save some for recapitalization after the train wreck.
Be right, sit tight.
agree
You said strapped, guess I'll post this to you too!
Pegging your currency:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegging_%28sexual_practice%29
And Gold plunged $31 or so in 5 minutes :-)
Yeah, gold plunged down... then it plunged back up... lol
yeh 31 down 11 up in 10 minutes. whow that must be no brainer somebody is putting pressure on gold.
But check this chart.
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/francgoldresistancesept1.gif
Here is your gold mate.
http://www.screencast.com/t/xY2C1emVv
BTFD
Already did at the begining of the month and was cheaper before the takedown. Paid £1170 Today £1150 + 4% = £1196. Come on paper bugs is that all you got?
You can throw those charts out the window... When the Fed and every other central bank in the world is intervening in every market in the world charts are useless... and can be worse than useless if they cost a speculator money.
Why would you use a chart when the Fed has so few options left?
Until then you can still use them. I bet the market can remain longer unrealistic than your account can hold. Can't remember who said such a thing in the past. Just watch the charts man.
And down 11 again in 5 minutes. going to be fun now with the gold bugs.
buy buy buy.... :D
Nouriel?
He does look bullish...
I agree completely - charts are not very useful - and worse than useless if the bad guys deliberately paint them - e.g the recent attempt to create an appearance of a double-top at 1920 ish.
and it's going to keep bouncing upward.... until the wheels come off the pram then it'll really plunge (upward). Of course it really doesn't do much of anything but sit there against the relative value of a given currency. Cool.... may I have some more please?
What a feeble attempt by tptb, pathetic. Their scrawly attempts are so obvious. Our hands are strong as we hold the physical. They are doomed to fail. How does the song go, oh yeah, WE SHALL NOT WE SHALL NOT BE MOVED, WE SHALL NOT WE SHALL NOT BE MOVED. WHO ARE YA WHO ARE YA!
Hong Kong closes and GOLD get absolutely bombed. Swissy stuck?
Didn't tyler posted last week or so that they're going to raise margin between 09-13th sept?
gotcha. Thanks. Let's see how short lived....or not... this move becomes.
I am hoping that margins get raised to 100%. Get rid of the paper gold market entirely... it's useless.
Besides, everytime margins are raised and gold drops a few bucks the Asians, Indians, Mid Easterners are coming in buying with both hands. Very stupid strategy for the West.
Looks to me that TPTB are desperately trying to clear the 50 trillion of gold dervatives thru intimidation of the market. Make it risky enough that only they are left. Its amazing what free money and absolute power can do. Will it shake out physical holders? No way. Phz holders will sell into the market only when all paper dies and the value of the real metal backs everything on earth.
"European leaders are forced to actually do something ...."
Tyler, sorry but Silvio get much more interesting things in mind than Euro right now:
http://www.dagospia.com/rubrica-3/politica/1-dopo-ruby-unaltra-marocchina-imane-fadil-va-dalla-boccassini-e-squarcia-il-velo-29507.htm#Scene_1
Another raid on gold/silver is underway. Down nearly $60 from $1,887/oz and $1.20 from $42.82/oz.
BTFD.
Paper... Gold is down about $36 since the LBMA opened... You need not inflate your 'facts'... See site...
http://finviz.com/forex.ashx
Sov CDS 5yr ITALY 446-456 +21 SPAIN 390-399 +7
It's all good...
China gonna take you down, India gonna take you down, Russia gonna take you down. The wealth is leaving the U.S. and West Europe. Night Night see you in 100 years!
Not to worry, they are holding the futures and not letting them fall much so as not to panic anyone into selling
Still, 30 hours rise whiped within 30 minutes. Great investment.
'SPILL ON AISLE 3'... they are calling you hungry boy. lol
Yo Hungry Boy, they need you in the lobby!
Go suck Bens little one, drone!
I know you get a hard one when gold rises 4 bucks in an hour but trust me, Gold is going DOWN! and DOWN BIG TIME! I rather have 30 buck moves in an hour and trade in that direction than $4 bucks an hour. So what's it going to be? Margin call or rather let go for now till dust settles? Anther option is of course the idea what Tyler posted few days back. Those put options.
Go and get a passport
Go and get a passport
hungry boy... member for 13 weeks... all in all, just another troll in the wall.
THis is meth man's new avatar...
'It' must work at CNBC or sommit
Swiss peg, what an eye opener. Intuitively I always knew it could happen, but to see your net worth cut by 9% or so by some fat banker pressing a computer key, and in what everyone thought was a "safe" currency, the Franc. If this didn't wake up the masses, only massive failure and capitulation will, and by then, too late.
After the peg, immediately fired off a new round of fresh checks, more gold to be purchased shortly, so happy to have a nice stash already, sure does help one sleep at night.
F these markets, F these central bankers, so F-ing sick of market "interventions" day after day after day. I think back to before the 2008-2009 crash, and there wasn't nearly as much headline news about central bank "interventions" as there is now, across the globe. System totally broken, we all know it.
We new it was coming but I did'nt think it would still be more expensive than on the 31st of August! Guess you can't keep a good thing down!!!!
Note to self. U.S. equity market correlations to the EUR only apply when the market is going up.
Same applies to bond markets. This is all going to end one day in the near future with an Emergency Broadcasting Message.
Poor Benny Boy... He wants a weaker dollar but the rest of world is not cooperating...
This chart has Ben running for the Malox...
Notice that the dollar is all the way on the left side of the chart below... stronger than all else this morning.
Whatcha gonna do Benny? You hammer on gold and all else goes up! Whackamole? Mish was right... dollar and gold moving inversely most days. lol
http://finviz.com/forex.ashx
Snidley, Thank You for your post. I haven't been a member long, but I've read ZH for a while. I own real estate and Physical.So I'm in till the end. I threw the paper in the trash along time ago. I enjoy your post, keep fighting!!!
HungarianBoy
BTFD
Come and check out how Mainland Chinese tourists are buying gold here in hong kong if you have a passport. plates of the shiny things.
Btw, it's wedding season.
"Btw, it's wedding season."
Is there a bag limit?
Caught that trend line did you Tylers? The Euro bounces arround like the Cable trade now and then. Short covering for G-10 and Friday?