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EUR Opens Lower As Bailout Disenchantment Returns
Following another weekend of consistently disappointing news on the latest and greatest bailout front, where the #1 question of just who funds the €560 billion EFSF hole remains unanswered, it is not surprising that the EURUSD has entered the pre-market session modestly lower. If China continues to posture as it has over the last 48 hours, expect this to trend lower as Asia wakes up, with the only possible saving grace the fear that weak-hand residual EUR shorts, which as noted on Friday remain at stubbornly high levels, may cover on any slide.
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Collapse on, bitchez!
for fuck's sake, it opened a measly 6 pips lower
But no China to the rescue.... All last weeks gains to be given back
EUR/USD to retrace to $1.34
Do you think that would also retrace gold back to 1600's?
Perhaps lower.
Think: Who does it benefit for us to have:
A) Extreme volatility
B) People scared to own & hold gold?
ummm, people long VIX and short GC?
;)
apparently not
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/vix-futures-collapse-as-bets-di...
I bought heavily into VIX 2x ETFs on Friday -
Lookin good right about now!
But it isn't just a matter of 1:1 EUR/USD. The Dollar has oil and silver as head winds. Gold will get caught in the storm, but the Central Banks will continue to leverage it to fund the Fiat Ponzi. It is a matter of timing in the short run, but in the long run all fiat will fail.
Agree.
I just think gold will go both much lower before it goes much, much higher than anybody dreams.
Sad to see some people voted me down. Guess they can't stomach even a little drawdown.
'I just think gold will go both much lower before it goes much, much higher than anybody dreams.'
Care to put your puts where your mouth is? I mean, since the next big move is down. Thought so.
STFU
Why don't you shut the fuck up. That would be a stupid trade, it's safer to just accumulate phyzz on the way down and up. idjit
dup
isn't it obvious that they agreed on certain limits for currencies to fluctuate?
It's been like that for 3 years already. Just wait for Euro to hit 1.3 and you will get printing news from US and we get new cycle started.
Gold will get caught up in the shitstorm. It will probably move to the mid $1600s this week. Silver will test $33. Oil will test $85.
I am short and SAF hope so . . .
I agree. ZeroHedge seems to push the wrong trade: EURUSD is not going to collapse as long as ECB won't print money (not in the cards for at least 2011). In fact, Euro could well strengthen, making the Eurozone life very painful, as the cost competitiveness is weak when the rest of the world prints freely (UK and US, and by currency pairing also a bunch of other countries such as China).
The Euro strenght, not weakness, is the true failure of the Eurozone.
Once again, actually reading articles, instead of making broad sweeping, and wrong, generalizations, is fundamental:
Citi On Whether Europe Can Ruin The World; Or How To Use An Insolvent Continent As An Excuse For Global Printing
Then again, anything said with conviction, does sound convincing.
I did read the article. It concluded that "Policymakers in the US, UK and elsewhere are using the euro crisis as cover to ease policy"
Now, answer me, what happens to Euro when all those other policymakers print money, but ECB doesn't?
Be cool, Tyler(s), don't ruin your mystique.
it needs to be supported by the swiss franc?
Elvis Costello Live - Welcome to the Working Week - YouTube
Will that be the ECB before or after the Eurozone falls apart? And will that be based on a market pricing in a 50 bps cut by the pre-collapse ECB in December? Lastly, have French liquidating banks stopped repatriating EURs?
Looks like I am making friends... I agree that on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for euro drops to zero. I do hope Euro breaks up to national currencies.
1) If Greek Bailout II goes through with -50% Private Sector cut, that is quite deflationary measure: Eurozone gets tens of billions Euro bonds out the system, so even less Euros in the circulation. Ought to strengthen Euro, I guess.
2) I never understood that argument about Euro repatriation, so cannot comment on that. I guess you sell USD assets to buy Euro to do that. What does that do again to currency rate?
It is possible that European companies are moving their overseas $ into €(repatriation) but that only suggests an acceleration in the currency wars. From a game theory perspective, it really would surprise me if the Europeans are telling China to buy Euros or they(Europe) are going to start dumping the $.
agree on game theory - note how the Japanese reacted when China started to buy their bonds
foreigners holding your currency bons weakens your sovereign debt position
'foreigners holding your currency bons weakens your sovereign debt position'
Absolutely. To an extent you are at the mercy of your creditors. What's the one currency all sovereigns in the world are loaded up on?
Gold. True sovereigns, that is.
Weakens position but could stregthen currency (which is bad for the economy in currency war world we live in)
and Prague wants to have a vote on "getting out." Spain's truly the "big one." There's nothing to prevent that country from just leaving. Their banking sytstem seems to be okay. The rest of Europe wants to "shove these policies down Spain's throat?" REALLY? Well...say hello to the Anglo-Saxon dog! well...he's more of a puppy, really. still...he has potential. "he hunts" as they say. Needless to say Italy's banking system is in complete disarray...
It means you should repeatedly attempt to pick a top in the euro because like, man Europe is a mess and stuff and may print eventually so might as well start shorting now.
And if you're already short, STAY SHORT! Annnnyyy day now... yep, any day now. OOH eur/usd opened down maybe this is it double down!!
You and every other retired, fixed income, grandma think the Euro is going to collapse. What if Greece pulls out and goes to the Drachma? The Drachma would be the weakest of all currencie, and the Euro would strengthen due to alieviating itself from a country with a huge debt/gdp.
In the long run the EUR/USD will continue to seesaw, and the only benefit will be real assets.
greece's big sister italy would take over! isn't that so?
I know what I wrote is stupid enough to fly as a normal comment around here, but be sure it was heavy on the sarcasm.
Just go long EUR and have smile and a STFU...
Dont worry. the headline grabbed some people..then reality sets in when you actually look at the bloomberg and see that 6 pips is laughable,..LOL, but, those scary headlines here grabbed a few readers im sure
I agree its not much of a move lower, but who cares its all just BS anyway. Until the entire scam falls apart, its just more pump and dump stocks, manipulate currencies and metals.
There sits the Euro, with everything thats gone on all year up till now with a collapsed Europe and news that China isnt stepping up to help, still just sits at 1.41, USD at 76....nothings changed and all is obviously well!
Problem is, suddenly it wont be, someones got to pay here and pay up big.
Let the rumor-off begin!
where is the next insulin shot coming from.
Insulin? Thats pure Bolivian Hopium!
Time to soak some easy money off last week's crop of 'investors.'
In a recent interview Soros was explaining that the euro could have a surprising force due to the liquidity crisis with european banks halting credit to emerging markets (Soros said european banks lend more than all the other ones to emerging countries). I don't know whether this is one of the reasons of Eur resilience or not. If true this could continue until their needs of money lasts.
this is Soros' interview I was talking about:
http://youtu.be/rhlOqO-HeQs
absolutely. "this is funding currency." it's BIG. "follow the yields." the ECB has already told the world: they will blow up all their countries to have that euro. Who are we to argue with that? Can't wait to see the MF Global "rescue plan."
Soros is genius
why would anyone listen to a guy who's got front row center seats in hell!
Bailout rumor fatigue sets in..
serioulsy, headlines need to be subject to edit
9 pips as per graph is hardly a headline worth noting. Hit me that headline when we open lower 200 pips.
losing credibility here, and those who snort these types of healdines like free coke off some whores asshole, WAKE UP !!!
did it not open lower? saved me the time of checking another site for the open.
Would this headline satisfy: "EUR opens higher, contrary to reality"
the trollz have been feisty
try to keep these shitheadz focused, tyler
i'm going for a bike ride b4 the $10K (prizes, not buy-in, L0L) N/L hold-em tourney
Yes.
Headlines that only make sense on a 1 min chart are good for...
Actually, they're good for nothing.
Correct. In an HFT-driven market the only thing that matters is the nanominute chart.
Reference: Scientific Proof That High Frequency Trading Induces Adverse Changes In Market Microstructure And Dynamics, And Puts Market Fairness Under Question
Incredible article. Much appreciated.
Agree.
...But you changed the subject.
Headlines like the one on this article are sensational, misleading and do not help ZH's credibility.
I wish you guys would simply own up when you fuck up (instead of engaging in debating techniques). Y'all need an ombudsman like blood.
Ask ZH about his 300 dollar per barrel oil trade. You never hear about oil on this site anymore. LOL.
No more " peak oil " sensationalized headlines.
To be fair, there are likely 8 or more Tyler Durdens running ZH.
But still, that call was at best horribly, horribly early. I can see $300/bbl oil when gold is at $50k, but not before then.
Is the EURUSD down now?
TOUCHÉ
"EUR: still there, still misunderstood."
"Comparison of FX reserves and gold backing EUR, GBP, USD & CHF"
Gold backing the EUR is very different than gold backing the individual European countries' central banks. In other words, gold backing the DEM is much higher than the gold backing the EUR. For some reason many are confused by this. Incidentally, considering Europe's banking system is several orders of magnitude larger than America's this is perfectly expected.
< = US has 0 tonnes of gold
< = US has 8133.5 tonnes of gold
and the US has germany's gold!
And germany has the US's and the IMF's gold is US's and germanies and frances gold.
Everything from 1 to 5 is fractionally reserved fluff gold. Everything below that except for swiss is real hard gold.
US has >11 tonnes of gold, when you figure in OCG (Other Countries Gold).
Possession is 9/10th of the law, bichez!!!
Well I dont see the country of the Vatican on the list.
so I would guess 75% of the gold is held there.. The stole enoughf of the russian czars
Thanks, honored by the response, no sarc.
You see? Officially, the ECB has little gold.
But the second tier continental CBs have together The Biggest Pile Ever for a non-reserve-currency dedicated to relative stabeeleetee.
And some willingness to shrink the banks a bit.
And a semi-reasonable trade balance.
And some willingness to shrink deficits (even to have brawls in parliament about them, hehehe).
And a higher then ZIRP environment to start with.
And a higher "resistance" to higher rates.
And some thoughts about ending the influence of the MegaBanks.
And a different attitude to defaults, bank nationalisations, a different legal environment more useful to sovereign interest policy changes.
And, and, and... USD and GBP will lead, EUR and CHF will follow, IMHO, and might decouple in a lucky moment, with a mad rush to let's say 25% or something of the same insanity level.
Ah, I forgot: more experience with really high inflation (which IMO precedes any serious currency sickness) and for Pete's sake a lot of FX reserves of the WRC.
"Quick! We need another rumor to turn this thing around"
Half of europe is in vacation mode on monday and thursday. So don't expect to much to happen.
Tuesday too (All Saints Day)
Might's well just take the rest of the fucking week of while we're at it, too. Oh.... maybe get a weeks holiday in Athens?
this analogs COOOL........
http://slopeofhope.com/2011/10/revisiting-the-1937-1942-analog.html
wow!! impressive graph!
long and short
agreed, following zerohedge headlines would of cost you a shite load of money over the last month!
the powers (china & US) will continue to prop the eur as it suits their interests
Only a sucker will trade any blog's headlines.
Yep, extract the data, do your own math, then place you bets. Same as it ever was. By low sell high.
I did during that ramp up right before the cliff drop on the indices during the summer. Man that made me some good dough ! Thanks Tyler! You idiots were doing the same thing calling out Tyler then. Man if I could have only seen your ugly faces when the bear calvary came through.
there's a British Pound(ing) in there too.
Right, Maikai
And sometimes, it feels like, 'only a sucker will trade---------' is enough to write om
If you want to short the Euro, do it against the GBP:
1) There are large bear positions in the GBP, like the EUR, so you are not fighting market positioning, which is clearly an issue with EUR_USD.
2) Markets are worried about the impact of UK QE2 on GBP. This is nonsense. It is not US QE2, which was a proper liquidity outpouring that crushed the USD. In UK QE2, the BoE will buy some gilts and the Treasury will sell loads - there will be no impact on growth or GBP.
3) Markets are worried about UK growth and the rhetoric is very negative. However, the facts tell a different story. The Citi economic surprises index is zooming upwards, showing that most data are actually coming in ahead of economists forecasts.
GBP bears are lazy and complacent.
Just out of curiosity, is the U.K. a net inporter or exporter of energy and food?
Having lived in the UK, I can safely say that things which might be "et" is a whole different world than "food". The Brits may hate the rest of Europe (truism) but without them they'd still be boiling perfectly delectable roasts of beef and filling "bangers" 75% meal, dirt and wood shavings. Now beer from the good olde days, that was a whole nother story.
So they're self sufficient since Man Can Live By Beer Alone.
this has been well-documented by margaret mead
Related to WW2 & rationing, an entire generation grew up eating crap. It's started improving recently though.
"is the U.K. a net inporter or exporter of energy and food?"
Since 1900, and so is Japan.
Any chance you might clarify your answer somewhat?
Obviously you don't live, visit or do business in the UK, otherwise you might have been reluctant to put your stupidity on full display by talking about those "economic surprises index zooming afterwards"
It's a fact asshole. You are the thick one; you were incapable of copying a phrase from my text without introducing 2 grammatical errors.
De Ja Vu - Euro opens lower on Sunday only to rally that rest of the week (on hopium)....I'm sick of watching this movie
The US are fantatrading it while the EU and UK take an extra hour off over the weekend
I'm amis, they took, what, 35 years to make a european union, the euro.
But they f'tt it up in under 10 years?
So, what's the plan?
How about this headline
"EUR flat, reality sets in"
I'm expecting sideways action this week, then we go even higher for the year end happy holidays print.
+1 for the backwards cystal ball reading...
interpetation....
exspect high volatility with major stock and bond markets ending lower...
see, he does make sense, if the ZH'ers do and exspect the opposite of what robo predicts...
ROBO, YOUR THE BEST.....
Oh, NOW I shoud be shorting it...?
Currencies are not for me I think.
gold is money. nothing else. let these "mighty institutions" trade their "currencies." debt is "currency of the King." Throwing "debt" under the bus is a perilous thing. In America they're called "exchanges" and "they trade these things."
Benya Da men won't let eruo to drop too much, otherwise he will have to drop dollar even much harder. not an easy thing to do.
EUR/USD showing a bullish market
http://www.livetradingnews.com/eur-usd-chart-is-showing-a-bullish-market...
Hey, guys, settle down! Everything's OK. Tomorrow we can all start (restart) playing with CNBS's play money again!
Basically the entire year seems to have been a waste of time. 'Things' are obviously much worse, Europe is effectively bankrupt with the Chinese saviours saying they wont be handing out free money, and it makes no difference in anything. Stocks, currencies, commodities, all about where they were 10 months ago. Huge WTF and a waste of time.
aren't we due for a "hopes of QE3" round seventeen?
Octobers mega meltup about to roll over into a Nov sell off. Europe's shock and awe is over. The 'new' shock will set in as Europeans realize they have been gamed (again) by France and Germany. Europe's/social backlash will kick into gear, timed perfectly for the coming winter. Love that oil price, can see the strikes in France and Germany now. China? How many 'coincidental' events can one observe to know China is a c-hair away from a major economic collapse? We continue counting.
An intermarket analysis shows that we may be very near to a significant turn in the markets. After another possible push in "risk on", the bears are looking to gain control with a strong "risk off" move for the longer term. Here is a look at the ES, DX, and GC. http://bit.ly/tckY8L
USD is slightly bid.
I'm flat after the opening bounce in gbp/aud. Tyler is correct. The Euro has one last gasp left in it. RBA tomorrow and China PMI.
How can the EFSF sell bonds on a strong currency? Keep up the GREAT work Tylers!
Update: Don't forget the unspoken qe-3 bullshit meeting next week! I can't wait to see how the " Hall of Umbrella Corp. pulls that zombie rabbit out of it's proverbial rectum!"