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EUR Pops As EFSF Issues 3-Month Payday Loans Then Promptly Tumbles On News Greek Lenders Fail To Reach Deal, Lethal Grenade Attack In Belgium

Tyler Durden's picture




Following a series of modestly successful debt auctions out of Europe, primarily in Spain and Greece, the morning capped its positive tone after the EFSF managed to sell €2 billion of 3 month deals: an event to which the EURUSD popped by 40 pips as apparently investors do not expect the EFSF to go insolvent in 91 days. However, the positive mood was quickly wiped out after Reuters reported minutes ago that private bondholders have concluded talks in Athens without reaching a deal, which confirms that that very basis of the July 21 deal, not to mention its October revision, the NPV "trim" of Greek notional bonds, is and continues to be elusive, which means that Europe's banks are certainly unable to still take even a 50% haircut, despite all protestations to the opposite namely that everyone has cut their Greek exposure. In other words, Europe's banks have, once again, lied to everyone. And rounding up the sour note of the morning is the breaking out of Liege, Belgium where one or more attackers are said to have thrown Grenades at a bus stop, with at least 2 people confirmed dead and 10 wounded. Unfortunately, the deadly anger is spreading ever closer to the core of Europe.

Le Soir with more on the deadly attack:

Two people were killed and at least a dozen were injured in the heart of Liège, according to a first assessment. Several people have hurled grenades and fired into the crowd. Follow the live situation

 

An individual of forty years has launched several explosive devices in the direction of a bus shelter, located on the Place Saint-Lambert, where many people were present.

 

Four explosions were then heard and gunfire.

 

An initial assessment, interim reports of two deaths and a dozen injured.

 

One of the authors of the attack committed suicide.

 

Place Saint-Lambert was closed

As for the EFSF sale, here is Peter Tchir with his explanation:

The market popped after the EFSF announced completion of a sale of just under 2 billion euro of 91 day bills.  The good news I guess is that it came at the ultra low yield of 0.22%.

Why are they doing 91 day bills for EFSF?  The point of EFSF is to address the liquidity part of the European sovereign debt problem.  The EFSF does absolutely nothing to address solvency issues, but it can help with liquidity and rolling over existing debt.  But what is the point of 91 day EFSF paper? 

The "bazooka" version of EFSF was meant to be long dated with leverage.  Leverage doesn't seem to work, but what happened to long dated?  The EFSF should be borrowing long term in order to provide financing for weak countries.  This is merely adding to the roll risk problem.  Now with whatever sovereign debt that needs to be rolled, Europe will have to roll EFSF paper. 

If downgrades are coming (and it seems like Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are moving in that direction), why would you not try to lock in more money at longer terms now? 

The market can rally on this news, but it is a blatant attempt to try and make something sound positive, when the reality it is yet another bad decision, in a long line of bad decisions, relating to EFSF.  If they had raised 10 billion of 5 year money at 2.2% (France's yield) I would be more excited that they are doing the right thing longer term.  This is just for show and in the end is going to add to the liquidity problem, rather than addressing it.

The ECB "unlimited" 3 year money seems to be having some effect.  Curves are steepening, but in a weird way.  Italian 2 year yields are 26 bps better, the 5 year is unchanged, and the 10 year is 10 bps HIGHER.  I would not have guess that with the 2 year 26 bps better, the 10 year would actually be worse.  That is a strange move and is likely distorted by the "unlimited" 3 year money.

Spain also came with short paper (1 year and 18 month).  More respectable than the 91 days but again, sticking to that the 3 year and in theme. 

Europe, and the EFSF in particular, should be locking in longer term financing, not going for the easy short term roll.  It is not a solution to their solvency problems, and is not helping the liquidity problems.

Maybe we rally more as investors get excited about a possible Fed Holiday Season present, but don't view the EFSF auction as much of anything (other than a sign that they really don't know what they are doing).




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Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:28 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

To what end this ruse? NOTHING is being done to IMPROVE the situation.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

No end, but seems to me people are having a "BANG" up time out there.  Why the unbridled grenades at a bus stop?  Sirously though, one would think the violence would be more directed at the source, not ancillary nuances such as socialized busing.  Lord. 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:48 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Just as profits are private and losses are socialized, pleasure is private and violence is socialized. We've just ridden into perdition.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 12:19 | Link to Comment FifthSense
FifthSense's picture

The trick is to push the people as far as possible and keep them right at the edge of cracking, that's when politicians are able to achieve the most and gain their glory.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:30 | Link to Comment AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

"In other words, Europe's banks have, once again, lied to everyone." - no shit, you don't say? that's a surprise...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:34 | Link to Comment gojam
gojam's picture

Personally, I think it's wrong to imply that the attack in Liege is anything other than a another looney at this stage.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:37 | Link to Comment Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Several people have hurled grenades and fired into the crowd

At the least that would be several loonies.

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:38 | Link to Comment gojam
gojam's picture

"breaking out of Liege, Belgium where a lone attacker is said to have thrown Grenades at a bus stop, with at least 2 people confirmed dead and 10 wounded"

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:40 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

but at a bus stop?  wouldn't ied's under chauffeured limos of banksters and eurocrats be more appropriate, if harder to execute (pun)?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Right.  Banksters and kleptocrats don't ride buses.

New Video game lets you torture and kill banksters - http://maxkeiser.com/2011/12/11/new-video-game-lets-you-kill-and-torture-bankers-how-cool-is-that/ *Product not yet rated - SEC too busy fiddling their diddles to tranny porn.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 11:55 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Euro-peons are mindless idiots who are not able to think and understand who is really fucking them over. Instead of directing their anger towards their royal families, politicians and bankers, they are about to initiate yet another genocide against minorities, as this latest bus stop attack proves.
Same as they did 70 years ago.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:43 | Link to Comment achmachat
achmachat's picture

it was three people who hurled grenades, and one of them shot himself in the head right after the attack.

these things look very real all of a sudden when they happen close to where you live :-(

edit: police just arrested the second shooter, and the third one is still on the loose.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:51 | Link to Comment gojam
gojam's picture

Fair enough if i'm wrong, I was going by the story above which said "lone attacker."

Just seen a Sky news update which didn't say there was more than one attacker only that there was "atleast" one attacker

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:54 | Link to Comment achmachat
achmachat's picture

never said you're wrong. this is a developing story and i just happen to be closer to the source. that's why i was sharing it here.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:02 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

To both, if you reread it looks like it was an inconsistency in the first print that has been corrected.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:04 | Link to Comment gojam
gojam's picture

Thanks MsCreant.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:16 | Link to Comment achmachat
achmachat's picture

update: apparently they didn't use grenades but the explosives were thunderflashes

the casualties were from kalashnikov fire.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 11:06 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Are thunderflashes the same as flashbangs?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:01 | Link to Comment XitSam
XitSam's picture

How many times have you known the media to be wrong hours, even days, after the event?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:33 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

There are really two stories in there. The auctions and grenade attack would seem to me unrelated.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

three stories: "...the EURUSD popped by 40 pips..."

I'm still trying to traduce "popped". I pop, you pop? Is Tyler whacking it?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Europe is fixed again!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:54 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

As in neutered?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:35 | Link to Comment Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

 which confirms that that very basis of the July 21 deal, not to mention its October revision, the NPV "trim" of Greek notional bonds, is and continues to be elusive, which means that Europe's banks are certainly unable to still take even a 50% haircut, despite all protestations to the opposite namely that everyone has cut their Greek exposure.

And could this be why the latest EU "deal" guarantees that bondholders will be made whole from here on in.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:41 | Link to Comment Minoan
Minoan's picture

Some bondholders are notorious vulture funds.

http://tinyurl.com/8yzm3tf

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:36 | Link to Comment blabam
blabam's picture

Public transport sucks.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:35 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

That is about as good as I can figure also.

"Hey, lets get some guns and grenades and go kill poor people."

"OK, I'm in."

"Me too! Can I kill myself after?" "Sure"

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:39 | Link to Comment LeZinc
LeZinc's picture

Decency and sensationalism, may result in a quite unpalatable outcome when the two are separated. I enjoy some sensationalism in the morning, but not this kind, when a bombing of a bus stop and an economic news are commingled.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:57 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Corzine hacked ZH!!!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:04 | Link to Comment AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

Keynesians do not see any difference there. blood is good for growth...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:05 | Link to Comment XitSam
XitSam's picture

I enjoy some eggs in the morning, but not this kind, when a yolks of an over easy and an order of hash browns are commingled.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:50 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

"price tag" (combining economic crimes with actual bloodshed):  

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/world/middleeast/radical-jewish-settle...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:43 | Link to Comment slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Agree....if he had thrown in inside a bank or a government / eu finance  ministry then maybe, but otherwise it just looks like a loon....

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:48 | Link to Comment AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

maybe there was a banker on the bus??

 

 

 

sorry, my fault: The 1% do not ride buses!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:51 | Link to Comment El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Why do they always kill the poor and innocent? Even in auto accidents, its the drunk driver that survives.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:54 | Link to Comment AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

true, especially when the drunk is driving his bugatti through pedestrian area...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:53 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

the drunks (and some children) do not resist the momentum and roll with the punches better?

god is testing the faith of believers?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:27 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Speaking of which... the news coverage of that (grenade thrown inside a bank or gov't office) would be far less, I suspect, than something that gets linked to either racial or religious causes.  The guy who flew the plane into the IRS building... that whole event was in and out of the collective consciousness in about 24 hours.  The shoe bomber or the underwear bomber, not so much.  My perception, anyway... maybe I just see what I want to see.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:53 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Roll, roll, roll your debt

Gently down the stream

Warily, warily, warily, warily

Interest is obscene

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 08:57 | Link to Comment Bagger
Bagger's picture

Could any of this be related to Higgs Boson?

Nah - didn't think so.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:00 | Link to Comment el-kalif
el-kalif's picture

City council via fr paper Le Monde said attack was linked to an evasion attempt, ie no apparent link with mightly wave of anarchists-claimed letters reported recently

http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2011/12/13/fusillade-meurtriere-a-liege-en-belgique_1618002_3214.html

La mairie de Liège a déclaré au Nouvel Observateur que trois hommes seraient intervenus pour tenter de faire évader une personne du palais de justice, situé sur la place.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:05 | Link to Comment AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

DSK? i thought he was running around freely anyway...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:01 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

What have you done, SuddenDebt?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:04 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

His avatar will be used against him in a court of law!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:06 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

to all future grenade tossers, please leave the innocent alone, direct your projectile at bankers and politicians only! be a hero!!!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Grenades in the hands of civilians? How could this ever happen?!  They are illegal after all.  tsk tsk  /sarc off

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:08 | Link to Comment george1982
george1982's picture

yawn!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:08 | Link to Comment jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Wonder how long before the domestic terrorists OWS groups get their hands on some nades?  They seem to be fond of following after their mates across the pond.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:10 | Link to Comment TomB
TomB's picture

Still nothing but rumors but according to some reports escaped convicts are involved in the attack.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Apostle of Unknown
Apostle of Unknown's picture

Other gossip: that it's related to revenge for Pakistani family that was convicted last week by Belgian courts for the honour killing of their daughter.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

^^^this. the religion of pieces.

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:16 | Link to Comment DarkestPhoenix
DarkestPhoenix's picture

Of course, Kyle Bass predicted this will all happen, and the REAL Greek default will occur next Monday....beginning at 12:00 through 16:00, (specific prediction at 14:30).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V3kpKzd-Yw

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:52 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

thx for link

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:19 | Link to Comment george1982
george1982's picture

The european civil war has commenced!!

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:02 | Link to Comment Nikola Tesla
Nikola Tesla's picture

A European civil war is called a World War.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment moncon
moncon's picture

Daily Telegraph:

"The Karachi Post in Pakistan claimed that the attack was linked to a sentence in an honour killing case"

"The attack comes a day after a Belgian court sentenced four members of a Pakistani family to prison for the murder of their law student daughter and sister in the country's first "honour killing" trial."

Not sure what this has to do with anything else...

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment Fred123
Fred123's picture

What a surprise.....muslims. Europe is now infested with millions of these useless, ignorant, tribal barbarians with no way out. I guess the Jews from the 40's are getting quite a grin from this.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

infested. perfect word usage. +1

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 09:47 | Link to Comment warezdog
warezdog's picture

No deal in Athens, really? I'm totally shocked!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:54 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Hold judgement for now I guess.  Still developing story.  But it will be interesting to see who and why the attack was executed....

Tempting to come to conclusions... just hope it isn't what some may think it is.

 

Society in the west is more fragile than we think.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 12:06 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Belgium is unstable anyway - when it's not Marc Dutroux procuring little girls for politicians, it is politicians hiring hitmen to liquidate opponents of helicopter deals - remember the murder of Andre Cools and the Augusta A109 scandal when Willy Claes was jailed ?  Belgium is a powder keg

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 11:13 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Has anyone spotted Nigel Farage?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 11:14 | Link to Comment americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Well Jeez - if you're gonna toss a grenade at something why a bus stop full of working folks? Why not a Mercedes with a few GS suits onboard? Kinda like the guy flying his airplane into the basement of an IRS building and killing a janitor. Just plain stupid.

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