EUR Shorts Hit New Record

Tyler Durden's picture

Another week, another record bet on EUR currency collapse: this even in a countertrend week, when the EURUSD actually soared by over 300 pips. In other words, not only did shorts not cover, as some have suggested, they doubled down on losing positions, in the process bringing total net non-commercial spec contracts to -160K from -155K the week prior. As a result, should the EUR snap over the psychological barrier of 1.300 which it almost did in the overnight session by 15 or so pips, or should the CME hike EUR margins, we may promptly see a move in the pair comparable to the 300 pip surge experienced when the expanded QE1 was announced on March 18, 2009.

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blu's picture

Why do the EUR shorts hate our freedoms?

Peter K's picture

EURO shorts love freedom. Down with EuroFascism!

I can't believe I just wrote that:)

Spitzer's picture

Fundametally, the US dollar is way more fucked but people have to learn the hard way.

Is there anyone on this planet who doesnt think the dollar is the best of the worst ?

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

If A then B is a logical fallacy, but yes, investors lack logic of epic proportions.

American34's picture

Why are gold and silver moving so differently today? Silver way up, gold barely up???

francis_sawyer's picture

Cause Euro:Gold is the tether... & the Au/Ag ratio is above 50...

tmosley's picture

Someone unplugged the random number generator hooked up to gold, and inverted a sign on the one plugged into silver.

JW n FL's picture

 

 

Global Financial Market Regulation

http://www.bis.org/review/r120120b.pdf

Andreas Dombret: Global financial market regulation – need for a

coordinated implementation and a global level playing field

Speech by Dr Andreas Dombret, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche

Bundesbank, at a seminar of the European Ideas Network and centre-right Think Tanks and

Political Foundations in Europe “Long-term growth – organizing the stability and

attractiveness of European financial markets”, Berlin, 20 January 2012.

 

The Monkey's picture

Re-leveraging sentiment on. Silver/gold ratio still reflects investor risk preference until bitcoin kills PMs as PM's killed seashells and buffalo hide.

pirea's picture

most of investors are not thinkers, they run with the herd

The Monkey's picture

Pretty much everyone thinks the dollar is fucked. If you think we're anywhere near a sentiment extreme with respect to the dollar, you're smoking crack. Very few believe the recent rally in the dollar is anything more than a countertrend blip.

Spitzer's picture

Pretty much everyone thinks the dollar is fucked

Wrong. Everyone, including most gold bugs go on TV and say bullshit like  " the dollar is the best crack shack on the block"  or "the dollar is the best horse in the glue factory"

Everyone thinks the dollar is best

clones2's picture

Euro squeeze, dollar drops... US Equities should rally...

The Monkey's picture

"Should" being the keyword.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

This is simply a flight to safety. Investors are finally waking up to the fact that the dollar is the ONLY true safehaven that can protect you and your family during financial turmoil.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Fiat currencie has no intrinsic value, and using your logic, PMs would have such value as investors have gone into them with much more money than anything else over the course of the decade.

ozziindaus's picture

$'s have no more intrinsic value than your title or bank statement does. I'll take it even further, since it's likely you get paid dollars at your job, then your life has no intrinsic value either. You know there is something called convertibility. Money does not have to be something tangible. Even cave men knew that.

The Monkey's picture

The notion of precious metals as a store of value. Sea shells were once a store of value. More recently, real estate has been a store of value.

Things change. Some of us don't give a shit about a yellow metal that you cannot eat and the government can (and has) confiscated at will.

I'm a buyer of silver at $3.00 / oz. There are few uses for gold, so I'm not a buyer period.

mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Tell you what, MDB, I'll swap you all my available dollars for all of your precious metals - Au, Ag, and Pb - at today's fair market value.  That should make you all tingly...like Chris Matthews' leg.  :D

anarchitect's picture

I gave you down votes at first but have since come to appreciate your humor.

francis_sawyer's picture

that the dollar is the ONLY true safehaven that can protect you and your family during financial turmoil

Can you please give me the BTU value of the dollar so I can make a proper assessment?

The Monkey's picture

The BTU value of an equivilent trade, on any given day.

resurger's picture

how about you wipe your ass with your $100 bills?

The trend is your friend's picture

anyone have any input on the 8,000,000 trade in the GLD 162 strike call option for Mar.?

The Monkey's picture

Since PMs have been ruuning with risk on, most of the time, I would be cautious. Sentiment in the US stock market is nearing an extreme.

MarkTwainsMustache's picture

Could this not be real-money hedging?  Would explain the strong stomachs as they are likely benefiting from actual euro-cash flows on the other side of the trade.

flyr1710's picture

which is why the euro is going down to 1.20..seriously...follow the euro shorts

CvlDobd's picture

Fucking Christ! Did you read what Tyler just wrote?

Silver shorts are low. Long SLV might be a good short term paper place to be when this euro squeeze gets underway.

ShankyS's picture

Can you feel the SQUEEEEEEZE coming? Friggin manipulated centrally planned BS will wipe the floor with the shorts. 

mktsrmanipulated's picture

really hows my short from 1.385 doin?

ShankyS's picture

Bravo, but you are possibly just about out of time for this portion of the fall. Much worse to come as I have 116 target. They need to clear the decks first IMHO.  

http://tinypic.com/r/35k349c/5 

Gubbmint Cheese's picture

not sure how it will happen.. but shorts of all shapes and sizes usually end up getting burned.. fundamentals be damned. This will probably turn out no different.

the only thing that works is trading like a naive moron... (robo?)

 

Spitzer's picture

fundamentals be dammed ?

Euro is a net creditor

Euro has no trade deficit

Euro is chinas biggest trading partner

Euro has the most gold in the world (10,000 tons)

 

LawsofPhysics's picture

Like your moniker, a few credible links would be helpful Mr. Spitzer.

The Monkey's picture

Euro is in the early stages of a massive recession and whatever geopolitical surprises follow in it's wake. ZIRP, austerity and Euro weakness is on the way, regardless how much of a short covering rally can be extracted short-term.

mktsrmanipulated's picture

so play simpley put play eur vs aud

 

dcb's picture

the headline logic is flawed. I closed out my shorts when we hit the weekly high. (the majority of them), I turned around and bought the euro on thos dips, making another chart Y did buy the dat before yesterday, but then didn't sell, put new stop losse in and I'l buy . the euro positions I bought before, have stop losses in them, so no matter which way the market breaks I 'll make money.

Dr. Engali's picture

There is one heck of a squeeze coming. Too many people on that side of the trade.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Bearing is very happy that he does not trade foreign currencies, would have lost his internal parts in an implosion...

Actually not QUITE true: I do have a 500 euro note.  Fun fact: if the serial number starts with the letter "X", it is a German one.

mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Well, if the CME's gonna hike EUR margins, they might as well hike the PM margins to pull back the fat gains Au and Ag keep registering.  They can't smack down the EUR and risk decoupling with the narrative, can they?

rumblefish's picture

if TPTB can break these shorts. whould that be a case to push the us equities 'market' higher?  short covering rally, dollar down, DOW to the moon? 

 

Big Swinging Richard's picture

In the near-term yes.  However, given that Germany is the least of the worst in the Eurozone, and that they are totally dependent upon exports, a soaring EUR/USD is not exactly what Germany is hoping for.  There will be a coordinated devaluation once all the shorts capitulate.

AccreditedEYE's picture

Can we say "convergence" boys & girls?  

glock19's picture

Lots of specs, but lots of natural hedges on sales of European assets that companies don't want to be stuck with when the Eurozone collapses.

junkyardjack's picture

I might hop on the Long end for the squeeze.  The manipulated markets are going to push higher to try to stop people out.  

navy62802's picture

While I'm not in the FX trade, I wouldn't short the Euro. Not because I think it's strong, but because I have faith that Europe's leaders will prolong this charade as long as humanly possible. I think they can put on a show for at least another year.

LawsofPhysics's picture

As long as the power stays on and the oil and natural gas keep flowing, you may be correct.

GaryNeville's picture

Market melt up explained...

FED bails out the EUR via currency swaps...

Bots linked to EUR/USD go into auto buy as EUR strengthens...

Market marches on... 0.5% a day.. We'll be at 16,000 DOW in no time.....

Remember every1.. Its all priced in!