This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Euro Is Dead
The 'tragedy of the commons' or 'free-rider' dilemma of game theoretical cocktail parties is a great framework for considering the current tug-of-war between individual sovereign fiscal actions among the European Union and the over-arching monetary policy of the ECB. If the ECB is dovish and too many states decide to suckle on the teat of liquidity - as opposed to fiscally 'behave' - then everyone loses (as we see currently evolving). The lack of any Nash (stable and dominant) equilibrium among the European nations and their hoped-for benefactor is becoming increasingly problematic for both trading and business investment.
Nomura's Global Macro Strategy group tackle the problem that is now abundantly clear the euro area as currently constructed is not stable and so it will have to change (hence, the Euro is dead!). The direction of travel is being set out by northern European politicians and is worth noting – more Union not less. But two points are critical to note; first that the new euro area may be so different from the one the current members signed up to as to make a process of voluntary re-application for euro stage II necessary to determine future membership, and second that any new variable geometry euro will take a long period of time to set up. How then to cover the intervening period?
Kevin Gaynor, of Nomura, goes on to point out that while the market and global political pressure for the ECB to act as the bridge is now very loud indeed, many feel this option is not likely now. Kevin then sets up the framework for considering how the Euro will change and potentially emerge:
Game theory offers a route for thinking about these issues in a fruitful but parsimonious way. We can simplify this complex situation into a repeated “game” between the ECB and the fiscal authorities of the euro area. Each player can choose one of two strategies in this game, setting up four outcomes. The table below sets out the situation.
The fiscal authorities can behave or cheat. “Behaving” means instituting and sticking with substantial fiscal and regulatory adjustment. “Cheating” means avoiding that outcome.
The monetary authority can be hawkish, which in this context I take to mean no QE or dovish, offering full support for announced fiscal programmes that are aimed at guaranteeing future solvency.
Now the critical part is to consider how the actions of each party (ECB or sovereign nation) are dominant (or best) for themselves (or overall) and how that can lead to the free-rider (or unintended consequences) problems we have often discussed:
Let’s think about the pay-offs in each box. Behaving on the part of fiscal authorities leaves the ECB deciding whether to support or not. If the ECB takes a hawkish stance then the economy does badly and inflation falls below target – this is not a good pay-off for the ECB and makes the fiscal adjustment harder for the fiscal authority, and so hence I score it -1, -2 for the ECB and governments respectively.
However, if the ECB is dovish in this fiscal scenario then the economy, while doing badly owing to the fiscal tightening, does better than under the hawkish strategy, and so in this context I score it 0,0. This is the best combination of strategies available overall.
Now consider the “cheat on the fiscal stabilisation” strategy. If the fiscal authorities cheat and the monetary authorities go hawkish they both lose. Let’s call this the “leave the euro” box. The ECB doesn’t want the euro to break up, nor individual (or at least “important”) members to leave – its credibility would be lost and its independence could be put at risk. Similarly, we assume most governments would consider “exit” as a fairly substantial negative (we can debate this point of course since some would argue exiting would lead to better medium-term economic outcomes). I score this box as -2, -3 then.
Finally, we have the fiscal cheat and dovish ECB outcome. This is by far the best for the government and the worst for the ECB since its monetary credibility would be considered to be severely eroded in this outcome leading to free-rider problems whereby other governments start to renege as well. You may or may not agree with the scores, but it is how they rank that really matters in any event.
The question then is, is there a stable solution to the game? And the answer, in my view, is no. If the ECB unilaterally decides to go dovish then the fiscal authority is better off cheating which leaves the ECB worse off than if it had remained hawkish. Therefore, it doesn’t have a “dominant” strategy. Equally, there is no dominant strategy for the fiscal authority independent of what the ECB does.
But the game does have some important things to tell us. First, the ECB doesn’t want to drop into the break-up scenario and so it engages in tentative QE, better known as the SMP. It wants to keep the game alive, in other words. This is akin to the sort of signalling one expects in this sort of repeated game – rather like the USSR and the US at the height of the cold war. Taking the analogy further one tends to see proxy battles being fought in these scenarios – in which case Greece is our cold war Vietnam whereas Italy is the Cuban missile crisis.
How then to move forward? If the ECB is dovish then it invites a free-rider - we-can-ignore fiscal restraints attitude from the sovereigns BUT if the ECB is hawkish it crushes growth expectations and further exaggerates the potential downward spiral austerity-facing nations believe credibility will save them from.
Credible pre-commitment on the part of the fiscal authority is required in order for the ECB to decisively move to the dove camp. Fiscal tightening and regulatory reform are necessary but not sufficient conditions for the move to the behave/dove camp, in our view. Given it’s a repeated game, good behaviour should be rewarded but only in a marginal and reversible fashion.
That leaves markets facing an asymmetric risk/reward pay-off for the simple reason that the fiscal policies being undertaken are multi-year, painful, difficult to execute and conditional on stable political follow through. A virtuous circle where governments learn about the revealed preference of the central bank is entirely possible but would take time and would offer continual bouts of risk aversion on every opposition speech. Moreover, if the authorities look like they will not be a member of euro stage II then the central bank’s commitment should be expected to erode.
The other alternatives are more creative but, we think, entirely plausible. That is to make the cost of cheating much higher or remove the option entirely. In other words you make the behave strategy the dominant one under any ECB strategy. This could be achieved in three ways.
Option one is to ask an external body to take over fiscal powers – most obviously the IMF – in other words give up fiscal independence in the same way these countries have given up monetary independence.
Option two is to give up fiscal independence domestically by setting up a temporary but powerful independent fiscal policy making group (the supposed technocrat approach we are being told is occurring currently) – an option that has been discussed in academic literature before.
Neither of these options are particularly palatable and would be seen as a significant loss of sovereignty.
The final option is make the cost of exit higher in a credible manner. Beefing up contract law on debt wouldn’t help since default would still be possible since the debt is owed. Instead, it would be better to take an asset out. The most obvious one is FX and gold reserves. On the most recent IMF data, Italy, for example, has 78 million fine troy ounces of gold on its central bank balance sheet and around USD35bn of hard currency reserves. In contrast, Italy’s contribution to the ECB’s reserves is around EUR7.1bn. It remains anachronistic that the single currency area still has such an extensive system of national central banks (around 48,000 employees vs 19,000 at the Fed) and the bulk of currency and gold reserves held at the national level. Indeed, taken more broadly the region has around USD607bn of gold reserves at current valuations and USD204bn of hard currency reserves.
Thus, one option for making exit seem even less palatable is to not just withdraw and provide monetary support depending on behaviour but to ask for the national reserves to be pledged to a European authority to be held in escrow. Euro exit or losses for the ECB from support, or indeed financial sector losses from future backsliding could then be paid out of the lost reserves. This would no doubt be hugely unpopular and possibly illegal given central bank independence, but the point is of course that the reserves would not be lost if good behaviour is followed.
These options are highly unusual and politically dangerous, and so are only likely to be used in extremis. Instead, the real situation is likely to continue flopping back and forth between hawk/cheat and dove/behave boxes. Leaving aside whether the game is stable, we must ask whether that outcome is economically stable. And that depends on the fundamentals. A worsening growth environment, tightening private sector financial conditions and balance sheet deleveraging suggest that the short- to medium-term outlook is not conducive to the sort of reforms being promulgated. Moreover, a key component of the adjustment is supply-side reform; by its very nature this is about reducing the price of goods and services at any given level of supply. As such buying time for the fiscal adjustment to take place will be harder not easier.
Right now the onus is on new governments setting out their plans, for which the ECB is signalling its pleasure. But the next round of the game will likely be between the populations and the fiscal authorities, with the skew being toward weaker growth and higher unemployment.
And most poigniantly from the perspective of a Euro that stands relatively strong versus many other global fiat currencies - yet whose core faces not just the highest aggregate credit risk of any block but turmoil so potentially binary in nature that - as the title suggests - the euro as we know it now is indeed already dead and simply, slowly morphing to something else:
Without credible pre-commitment on the part of either the ECB or the fiscal authorities, the game framework indicates either a loss of independence for the ECB under substantial political pressure to shift unilaterally to the dove camp or EFSF/IMF assistance and the pooling of fiscal risks against the backdrop of a political agenda for a new euro area.
Perhaps given our earlier discussion of the EFSF's need to buy its bonds and the proximity of an election cycle (given the implicit US-Bailout that an IMF save would mean), we are more likely to see the ECB fold'em...though this week's schizophrenic EURUSD price action is impossible to know what is being priced in.
»
- 28159 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
All of those thinkers existed in a world of limitless growth potential. What if we've reached limits, would their ideas still be as valid today?
As-is, no, their ideas would probably not all be valid today. But I really doubt that they saw their world as having limitless growth potential, as we perceive them to have, now, in hindsight. I'm quite willing to bet they saw the world as being pretty dark at the time...
*sigh* ... always with "the rules" :-/
Whatever happened to the concepts of individual sovereignty, freedom of association, contract between individuals, small (local) government, local cultures and customs,....?
We've now had nearly 2 centuries of the steady and progressive expansion of statism and central planning and look where it has ended: an imminent global super-state under the control of a small politburo of bankers and priests!
Talk about continuously beating one's head against a brick wall and expecting it not to hurt next time....
When you deal with third world bureaucrats and they keep telling you to do this and do that, without ever allowing you to achieve your objective, it means they want a pay off.
That describes beaurocrats in the first- and second-world as well. Just the payoff currency is different - some want dough, others power - but there is no real difference as both prop up the charade and will collapse together.
The notion of some NWO that is universally understood by the complex (with their secret handshake) I think is overcooked. I suspect there are a number of distinct "NWOs" residing in the separate minds of the narcissists. Problem is that each one's view (which has him/her at the top) requires the others' to fail. So to me this is an elaborate dance of competing intentions to undermine one another. Offense will give way to defense, and that's when it will get ugly.
My (cryptic) 2 cents.
ok.
...say what?
ok.
....
...say what?
ok.
....
Trying to appear intelligent ..by using a lot of words ..saying almost nothing pisses me off .. Its waste of my time ! I listened to the common people on the streets of Italy yesterday . What i heard from their mouth was one unanimous statement : We are in deep trouble ... AND ... we need to change !
THAT bodes WELL !
The Italians are a proud people ... and can work HARD . The same goes for most european people . Furthermore ..Europe ... COMBINED .. is the wealthiest area of this world ( believe it or not ) . It also has the most advanced infrastructure . the biggest number of highly educated people , the most gold and a lot of many more " MOSTS " ... when push comes to show . And we are the ENVY ..of many !
We are also culturally and historically the RICHEST place on earth for the last 1000 Years . With endless bloody wars between ourselves . A multitude of different beautiful languages and traditions . Geographically blessed and ranging from the Arctic to the Sub-tropics .Most of it more CLEAN than the majority of other places of this size in the World . Throw in our immidiate neighbours ( Russia and Turkey , who culturally and historically are more European ..than they are not ) and there is NOTHING we need from the rest of the World .
We truly and rightfully are the ENVY ... of MANY .
SO ... dont count EUROPE out ..yet ... Folks !
Ah so...... and on the recent Best Places to live......you all came where????
Get off yourself Cobber, stop playing with your plonker...!
According to Bloomberg the best places to live in 2010:
So yes... it's Europe. It's where all rich Americans live too by the way, they are just kinda hush hush about it...
Perhaps you didn't need or want it, but we exported inflation to all your shores and into all your pints so you are now ready to relive some of that enriching history of yours.... The Dark Ages
Nice summary, and so true. America suffers from the cultural depravity and ignorance of her people, even though it is true that we have great universities and graduate schools. However, in science and engineering, if you visit a top flight department, you will see that people who appear to be American actually have foreign accents.
Our education system for average people resembles our potholed roads. I regard the sorry state of this country as just deserts for genocide of native peoples, warmongering, domination of poor countries, and slavery and discrimination. Karma. And we certainly don't seem to be heading in a good direction now with the corruption we have in high places. We are bankrupt both morally and economically. There are good people for sure in this country, but they are victims, or soon to be victims.
What you say is painful to hear, speaking as an American. At the risk of sounding like the rube I am, what we do have that the Europeans lack, is an active religious life, perverted though it is in many respects. Most Europeans have turned their backs completely on their religious heritage--a kind of cultural disconnect that leads to private despair and anomie (and a burgeoning market for psychological services and psychotropic drugs).
With a new low standard of living and an active religious life, life in America has a chance of offering hope, once again, to the oppressed. Rich people suck.
Said well. But for that to survive, local change in taxes need to be faught. One such action is the non partisan move in PA to push the burden of school taxes from property taxes to the Marcellus shale balance sheet. Even if it gets priced in, it'll make alternatives relatively cheaper. Then at least you have them and the schools fight about yearly increases, etc
As I have said before, people who don't even engage locally on taxes and budget concerns yet talk extensively about national and global taxation are just a bunch of wanker assclowns
Europeans haven't turned their backs on their religious heritage. They treasure their religious institutions, which are some of the most magnificent on earth. It is the dogma they have turned away from and good riddance to that. They have more experience with the horrors of those dogmas than Americans have.
"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful." -Lucius Annaeus Seneca (4?BCE - 61CE)
"History does not record anywhere at any time a religion that has any rational basis. Religion is a crutch for people not strong enough to stand up to the unknown without help. But, like dandruff, most people do have a religion and spend time and money on it and seem to derive considerable pleasure from fiddling with it." -Robert Heinlein "Time Enough for Love"
“Religion has convinced people that there’s an invisible man…living in the sky, who watches everything you do every minute of every day. And the invisible man has a list of ten specific things he doesn’t want you to do. And if you do any of these things, he will send you to a special place, of burning and fire and smoke and torture and anguish for you to live forever, and suffer and burn and scream until the end of time. But he loves you. He loves you and he needs money.” — George Carlin
You anti-religionists just take it for granted that you are so wise and that people who subscribe to religious feelings or ideas are like children believing in Santa Claus. But I'll bet I and many other religious people are much more intellectually sophisticated on practically all levels than you are, if your comment reflects the tenor of your thinking. You are like a cow trying to understand calculus. So just go on being arrogant.
pineyard.
Well said. Live long!
Probably why the target was placed on Europe early in the game.
Gotta get you worried about your "finances" as we (US) go beat on Iran.
The Euro is dead!
Long live the Burro!
What, you're going to use something other than Euros or Dollars as money?
We can destroy both fiat currencies but you will still not use anything else as money. Why would you elect back into office traitors who betray the very same US Constitution that they swore to uphold otherwise? The Constitution and the two Monetary Acts that are still the law of the land establish that only coins made of precious metals can be used as money in the US of A. The law is on your side but you are against the law! How can you use lawful money when you are against it?
If the Euro is a failure, is that a necessary and sufficient cause to warrant that you will not use it as money? You could probably even use what comes out of my backside as money if you thought you could turn a profit by doing so. Because you're full of the stuff already. Who doesn't love free money anyway?
This is what you want, this is what you get. And what you deserve.
You think you're going to come after us? We'll put your slaves' asses in your place soon. You're going to be begging for your food and for your life. We'll teach you what freedom means. You'll learn quickly. And we'll make you pay for your lesson in gold. Not silver.
The Euro has been dead for some time now...
All we've been witnessing was the Euro-Financial equivalent of Weekend At Bernies...
Euro dead!? The FED has been monetising the bad debt of the US government for years & still the US dollar has some marginal utility left in it, even if it is the biggest credit bubble in history. I wouldn't write off the Euro so easily.
And that is the game matrix that should analyzed: ECB vs the Fed. Zero sum game with few strategies:
1. monetize and save TBTFs, finance sovereign deficits;
2. pursue the austerity, but save TBTFs, selectively default on sovereign obligations;
3. allow sovereign default(s) / bankrupt and restructure TBTFs;
4. bash the opponent to divert attention from internal weakness.
Both ponzi schemes will reserve to a combination of the above strategies except, unless it's unavoidable, for the third one. Whoever pursues 3rd this strategy first - loses. Winner retains / takes prize of the reserve currency for a little while longer. Fed has bigger guns and media coverage, winning so far. Both are dead on a long enough timeline.
The EU can survive without reserve currency status a little easier than the US, smaller trade deficit.
About to hit the fan in Portland...
http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2011/11/occupy_portland_evi...
Occupy Portland: Eviction deadline approaches at downtown parks
Thousands of people and police gathered in downtown Portland as the city's deadline approached to clear Occupy Portland campers from two parks where tents sprung up five weeks ago.
Mayor Sam Adams and other city leaders say they're worried about the safety and health of Occupy supporters in the parks, where at least four people have overdosed from drugs and a man was arrested and accused of throwing a Molotov cocktail at the World Trade Center nearby.
As clergy members and others gathered, holding candles and urging calm, another group chanted: "Hell no, we won't go."
The entire fucking globe is searching for a tipping point... let's hope the tipping point is not the loss of decent lives of the populace, but instead an expose of the fraud being perpetrated by the financiers.
We really are the 99.99% and we need to stick together regardless of our differences, the same as the European Union... for the same fucking reason too. We gain nothing by playing the mind games of the oligarchs, because we are not and never will be one of the oligarchs... they have guaranteed that. Only success in this world comes from insiders who are already complicit. The rest is just a show.
Let's hope everyone realizes before the tipping point is breached, because you do not want to be on the wrong side of history this time. The People United Will Never Be Defeated. There are enough united peoples that the oligarchs are doomed. As are those who side with the oligarchs hoping for scraps. We play for keeps, and this time, we need to protect each other. The people of the world and this country need to support those OWS brethren in Portland, as they're temporarily at the front line in the battle. You either support the OWS members (by becoming one) or you condemn all of us to enslavement and poverty. It's really that simple.
Fuck the Euro / Dollar / Yawn. You have no choice.
I don't support OWS, I'm not part of OWS or any mass movement, and no one speaks for me. I don't need to ask government for privileges; I just take them. I don't need a state, I don't need OWS, I don't need money, and I don't need any one to take care of my security or well being. Regardless how benevolent your rulers may or may not be once the currency goes all of the conveniences of a system is kaput.
"You either support the OWS members (by becoming one) or you condemn all of us to enslavement and poverty"
You already have that and you've condemned yourselves to it via dependence. You can blame me and people like me all you want but it won't change anything or convince me to partake in any of your societal endeavours or utopia building. Just you and your ilk stay away from my resources that I've secured and all is well.
You can think all that "I don't need anyone but me" bullshit if you like, but unless you are wizard or alchemist, there isn't anything you've attained that didn't require someone elses help in some way. If you think attempting to get the agencies responsible for catching and punishing fraud and corruption are "utopian ideals", I really have to wonder about your ability to reason.
My opinion on this matter is this. When you participate in a society, no matter how big or small, you need to form consensus. You might want to try to dictate everything, but eventually, someone will just dictate to you. To imagine there is no society and only individuals, is self deception, because people of similar agenda will coalesce and form an opposition stronger than your individualism can overcome. There is no way in hell Libertarianism can ever succeed in this world, because we have already gone well past that point... we rely on communal resources to live and we don't appear to be eliminating them, but who knows.
Unless you grow everything, build everything, don't need to go anywhere, don't need another person to agree with you, then you are a social being. If you drive, buy a gun, use a road, call a friend, sell something, then you are a social being. As a social being, you also need to maintain the viability of the society's ability to provide for your needs. In the mean time, you need to negotiate needs, with others whose needs may differ. What you are basically saying is that you played the game while it benefited you, you collected the resources you needed while acting as a social being, and now want to segregate yourself from society, with your collected resources in tact. I can only promise you that I will not come to you for your belongings, but I cannot speak for anyone else who may feel they want it more than you want it.
Don't worry, in the world I see approaching, no one will care whether you have a wad, stash or hoarde, because it will be worthless. And I realize you may be referring to materials, land, resources, whatever. The tricky part is the transitionary period where there is not enough but there is greater demand.
Yup. It's the journey, not the destination. Falls in line with the saying about best laid plans...
So you move along and keep the message. Direct combat with the opposition loaded in your face is tactical suicide for losers. Grow up.
Continue your protests by means of boycott, non compliance and Not participate in anything you believe is evil.
The euro is dead and yet it trades 1EUR=1,37$, ......that means the dollar is ...... OMG!
A corpse, a shadow puppet, a joke, less than dead, more than dead, 6 feet under? Debt? The real source of the problems plaguing the globe?
By the way, English is such a fucking weird language... who the fuck came up with the rules? Raise / Raze, There / Their, To / Too, Gain / Game, Shallow / Shadow, Deceive / Believe ... come on... WHY?
it's an awesome language, f*cking technical, like maths,has a flow...constantly evolving.
anyways, the market is so topped it's eye bleeding. The Italians better get their sh*t together. you gotta choice. Allow the awful greedy c*ck sucking banks of France and Germany squeeze the life out Italian people, or you send a massive f*ck you by defaulting on the debt, go to zero. Reset. You will slam Wall Street into the gutter, make that French worm crawl on his knees, and the Germans will deal with Merkel.
C'mon Europe end this f*cking con job once and for all.
The ones with the printing press lose later but surely.
In fiat currency up is down and down is up and everything goes around and around so inflation = good. If the euro were to inflate itself to parity with the dollar it'd temporarily patch up this banking crisis until it needed to be inflated some more. Just because the euro exchanges higher than the dollar doesn't mean it's in better shape and it just means that it exchanges for more dollars which has little meaning unless you exchange currency.
He's dead Jim.
So lets allow gold to find it's true value!
The true value is in the person holding whatever crap they happen to be holding. Preferably a tool of some sort. I do own G / S, but I remember to keep it in its place... it serves me, i do not serve it.
The EU is dead. Prime the two economist (Italy/Greece) 'leaders' ( one a former ECB banker...that is beyond a joke) now attempt to surgically cut Italy and Greece from the 'union'. They will make an utter meal of it, no doubt, as Europe goes into winter and oil inflation takes out France and Germany...it is going to be total chaos. Bets on the Italian 10yr heads back to 7% next week.
I know its really hard to figure this out, but here's a hint: g--d
More color: http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2011/html/sp110615.en.html
Another hint - the revaulaution account.
Conceptual exercise: the weakening of the euro would in fact increase the revaluation account, no? This is because the revalaution account tracks MTM changes to its assets, like g--d.
They even list this g--d 1st on their balance sheet. (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GrsEiwP5iIw/To0hGo9lJ3I/AAAAAAAAB5Q/7-FHsX5cQf...). It appears they think its awful important, no?
The Euro is dead?
The Euro won't die till America and China tells it to die.
You guys never understand the full plot.
I wish I could bask in your ignorance. I'd be happier.
http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com
carrot = all the shiny things currency can buy.
stick = fear of not having currency to buy the food and shelter.
Grudging respect for the scheme.
First law of survival: Money is a means to an end. The end is to buy all the food and guns that you need to survive:) I heard it said.......
I would suggest another option to consider as the priority solution:
How do the unelected bureaucrats of the EU remain in presidence of EU affairs, a priori, despite all and any cost?
Here I believe you will find the prophesy of affairs du jour.
Ho hum
The EU needs some patriots like Americas Jared Lee Loughner.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Lee_Loughner
We need more congressional vegetables.
As for the Euro dying, I personally believe that the collpase of the EU vs. the collpase of the US is about 50:50 in time with the US shilling the earlier collpase of the EU for the sake of its own survival.
Ho hum
The problem with the Euro dying is much the same as the problem with the Soviet Union collapsing- it places the US in un-checked control. With the Euro gone it'll be easier to implement a world-wide currency (credit system), which is the only logical outcome for the path that this suicide train is on.
Someone posted this link in another thread here on ZH (many thanks, and I'm sorry I cannot give you proper attributions), and I think that it's perhaps the best description of the macro around:
http://www.swarmusa.com/vb4/content.php/291-Renaissance-2-0
I'm not convinced of the potential effectiveness of his "solutions;" but then again ,I don't tend to like "solutions," as nothing is permanent. But... as far as they go, his do a pretty good job of linking.
P < P + I
In his videos he also points out what I've been harping on, BIG = FAIL!
Seer, i liked your comment a while ago about growing your own food becoming a sign of rebellion.
Very true.
http://www.shitefood.co.uk/
Duke, I don't see it so much as being rebellious as I see it as being the RIGHT thing to do. If we focus on the fundamentals then all the circus shit will have nowhere to reside, it'll shrivel up and die.
But... from the viewpoint of the status quo (TPTB) it's a total affront to their control/power.
When the dust has settled, no matter which way things turn out (though, however, I'm fairly confident the path that we'll eventually find ourselves walking) we'll STILL be faced with declining resources.
Get busy living, or get busy dying (the current system)...
I'm happy to report that my ("my" includes my wonderful partner/wife!) layers are now starting to produce (initial start up), and have already been able to provide some (sell) to others: quail have been producing for a while now.
Egads! Shitefood! My first trip to Manila I took a picture of a plate of Spam in a fast-food cafeteria/eatery (located in Makati [talk about contrasts, Makati and the surrounding areas (where my wife is from)]).
Egads! Shitefood, indeed!! bookmarked for those days when only a good laugh will do. . . can't get more Brit than that site.
one lasting memory I have of food horrors, years ago hanging with a group of friends in Glasgow Scotland, my first visit "up" to see them, hitting the chippie after the pubs closed - I wasn't wanting most of what was on the menu, and tried ordering the "pizza supper" - supper being anything plus chips - I watched the chippie take from the freezer a 6" circle of dough painted red with some tomato sauce, a few token sprinkles of grated "cheese" stuck on top. . . and dropped it into the bubbling chip fat!! after a minute or so he pulled it out, threw it on top of a paper tray of chips, doused it in salt 'n' vineager, wrapped it all in paper and voila! dinner.
not. my friends pished themselves, and it's a great memory, nonetheless.
thanks BigDuke & Seer - happy to be growing or raising virtually all my food now - if only I could make a pint of Boddingtons.
Becoming biodynamic, networking talent obviates the need for currency intermediates as principal in gaining satisfaction. Support your local work-lovers. Ony one-on-one works; don't waste all our time with large group syndicated barter.. All are born to lose, since Love needs constant and refreshing reinforcement and more importantly, eye contact. Sorry, corporate zombies; you are so done draining my blood.
I kinda like the trappings of modern life though ... who would make computers and maintain the internet in your one on one bartering utopia.
Food is the ultimate control. It always has been. Of course with systemic pesticides, GMOs and other "fruits" it has moved to a whole new level. And its global. Whether its killing the honeybees that pollinate what we eat, causing unprecedented cancer, destroying our water and soil, or simply blowing us up to 300 pounds on a substance less nutrient than cardboard, it affects us at levels that will never be reached by our financial medium of exchange. The healthier we are, the clearer we think. The better we fight and protect.
The US was the logical leader in GoodTtimes ! The US will be the default leader in Bad Times ! With Europe ckecked and the Briic a Braac's not ready for Prime Time.....who else ? Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Just What Is Tour
I really like the Harvard elite and the 'leaders' that they produce.
BIG FUCKING FAIL. Please fucking warn me when you post crap like this so as not to waste my time.
I gave you 3 theoretical negative votes for this.
I agree that this whole EURO SNAFU is about the USD hegemony. The Europeans don't like it because they are saddled with the US military presence running on 66 years. The non Europeans don't like it because they don't like the idea having to be elected every 4 odd years and being held accountable by the Prols. And the US loony left doesn't like it because it basically can't win an election. And when it does, it demonstrates to the rest of the US electorate about how insane the left actually is. The OBAMANATION is a good case in point. So therefore, all these mental gymnastics about benevolent dictatorships and ruling by committee. But at the end of the day, it's the same situation that has been faced by tyrant throughout the course of history. But one thing is certain, like Edward Gibbon noticed, that history teaches us that progress is being made. And that progress is always going to be for more freedom rather than less. Or to make a long story short, the EUROcrats and their fellow travelers are on the wrong side of history:)
The Obamanation is a closet neoconman.
The Euro is .... a dead parrot:)
Dead parrot:
http://youtu.be/4vuW6tQ0218
Paraphrasing:
EURO Owner: Look, I took the liberty of examining that EURO, and I discovered that the only reason that it was sitting at 1.3750 in the first place was that it was nailed there by the Big Panada and the Big Bear. (Laugh track)
Shop Clark (Clerk for you septics): Of course it had been nailed there, otherwise it would have muscled up to those barschart highs at 1.6000 and BOOM. (Laugh track)
EURO Owner: Look matey, this EURO wouldn't boom if I put 4000 volts Goldman recommendation through it....
You get the drift... :)
They are more than on there way to starve you into servitude one acount at a time. One layer at a time of capital is being mopped up and as warned left destitute. I will leave that to those who have read these truths we hold are self evident even at that event. Your status is no man and gained from tuition. Between the bickering of so called party's it have been this way before we all were concieved in Liberty. Preaching to the choir and focusing on preacher's only you will never change. The seal is in the forehead as we all know. With that said the attributes will just have to run to the logical conclusions we have been warned about. They will run to the middle and seek shelter. Seek them out and unmask the fallacy's as only ZH and free people of the letter must do. The only fear they have is independant minds moving to local effect of economy. We all reap what we sow to local growth Markets. If you need there food to survive find another way. Finding the right thing to do is never easy. Sorry to convey the obvious and good luck removing the parasites in your life.
They're there waiting for your shoes, you're supposed to put them by their door.
your lack of grammar makes your post un-readable.
TheEuro is dead ! Short live the Dollar ! Long live the PMs ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Fiat Farce Fiasco
Well Marketwatch haven't changed there figures and still have the Euro /$1US at
0.6928 -0.6827 down 49% Maybe they are letting the cat of the bag and opened the wrong envelop at the wrong time.Look at the bid/ask in the table below.
EURUSD bid = 0.01 ask = 1.375
So now we are witnessing a war between the European Central Bank and sovereign nations.
With the overthrows of the democratically elected G Pap and Silvio, and the installation of the ECB Gaulitiers L Pap and Monti, I think it is pretty obvious who is winning at this point. It is also safe to say that the European model is nothing more than a benevolent dictatorship (run by committee) in disguise. And they call that progress.
Gresham's Law applied on a sovereign basis.
Push weak sovereigns out of the way and rush to dynamic productive ones.
Where's Governor Corpswine speeding off to now? You can be sure thte uber-police are close by with free cover. Our Robin Hoods can't be trusted not to broker Sherwood Forest for the King of the Blues.
Game theory to "prove" the Tragedy of the Commons? I guess the author needed to put out something asinine to throw people off the scent. Folks, this was a book written in 2009 by Austrian economists Phillip Bagus called "the Tragedy of the Euro".
http://mises.org/resources/6045
Worth the read. And it's free
Well stated,Catullus.
... " Each player can choose one of two strategies in this game, setting up four outcomes. ...
...“Behaving” means instituting and sticking with substantial fiscal and regulatory adjustment. “Cheating” means avoiding that outcome. ...
WARNING: author does not understand Game Theory or deliberately misrepresents it. The above demonstrates limits of action, whereas Game Theory has no such limits. Its only limit is to accomplish a defined purpose despite any supposed limits of action.
There's a much simpler way to explain what's happening in the EU.
The Euro idea was promoted as a way to simplify trade among Euro nations. It was just a cover story. The true purpose of the Euro was a way for bankers to make money loaning wealth of productive responsible nations to unproductive irresponsible nations.
Debt is how bankers make money and gain control over people.
Bankers have gained control over unproductive irresponsible Euro nations like Greece via debt and have gained control over productive responsible nations like Germany via guarantees to make good on the debt if debtor nations default.
The debt has reached a point of unsustainability, Germany is starting to crawfish on its guarantees, and bankers are doing everything in their power to prevent this debt game from collapsing. It's a ponzi scheme in every sense, and bankers are doing everything in their power to keep the ponzi scheme going.
If this debt ponzi scheme collapses, bankers suffer enormous losses (not covered by CDS after all) and they lose control of Europe. It's that simple.
It appears bankers can operate massive continent-wide ponzi schemes and national governments look the other way.
Why? Because national govenrments benefit from that massive ponzi scheme. They can borrow wealth from their citizens and citizens of other nations.
It's stealing actually, because it will never be paid back.
Fiat paper currencies are the vehicle bankers use to borrow (steal) wealth from citizens and loan it (give it) to those thieving national governments.
Of course the same thing is happening here In America.
By the way, silver is almost 1:1 correlation with EURUSD now.
"The Euro Is Dead"
Bull crap.
Oh yeah,..Rome "burned" a long time ago, well it's still around with their fines wines, pastas' and soccer. Viva Italia!
Italy was good before the euro. Rome and the rest of Italia will be alive long after the death of the euro. The Italians don't need euros. Their tomatoes will grow without the euro.
*I consider the free rider to be the financial sector, not the people. they have no voice in the process.
THe Euro is dead...long live the Euro - 1.40 next target- BTFD ZH perma bears- this site has gone down the toilet of conitous bull biating and apocylpse preaching - ITS THE BRAVE NEW WORLD - 2+2=5 ....EDSF remonitezises its own bogus guaranteed shite and its working...until it doesn't !!!
The Euro is not dead, its actually an abortion
It's not a question of the euro being dead. The real question is, when will the can become too dented and mangled to kick?
Urrgh, The Tragedy of the Commons. Don't you think that practicing cowherds would be more attuned to the dangers of overgrazing than some dickweed in a university? It should be called the Tragedy of the Undead Malthusian Slippery Slope Fallacy.
Scratch that, it this case it should be the Tragedy of University Dickweeds Formulating Economic Policy.
E L Bernays* lamenting the good old days, when " '...Dumb Jack received a salary of twenty-five dollars per week, and got a half a thursday off every two weeks.' But that's before got a social consciouss."
*Master of propaganda for mind-control. [lived to 104, died 1995] Quoted in 1991 interview at http://home.bway.net/drstu/chapter.html
Another one from the Peanut Factory bites the dust.
Henry D. Owen, 91, Dies; Shaped Global Fiscal Order
Under Obama Care, we must begin to evaluate whether these Trilateral Commission individuals are suited to carry on further serf financed medical subsidies. Unhealthy Trilateral Commission deadwood must be thoroughly reviewed for cost benefit analysis.
http://www.trilateral.org/
LOL
I haven't seen any comments on the real story here. Gold! First Libya next Italy, Spain, and Greece.
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the? political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”~Joseph Goebbels
.
Saturday, November 12, 2011
The Real Reason Why .....
http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2011/11/real-reason-why-war-is-...
You know how I'm sure they're finished out there?
The carts.
They're using carts to move their wounded and the supplies.
propaganda
Euro may 'die' one day. All currencies do eventually. But right now, in this point and time, hope will drive Euro flux in the current channel. Doomsday is always in the future...
Does this mean my Phils denominated in Euro will have more numismatic value when its gone?
zombies don't need currency so Euro death non-issue.
So the Euro is dead. Can the dollar be far behind?
Europe should save herself while there’s still time. Why would the sovereign nations of Europe relinquish their statehood to an international banker cabal as the American states have given up their statehood to the money changers at the Federal Reserve?
Greenspan has made clear the plot by the bankers to use paper money and big government to destroy the independence of western civilization. Says Greenspan: Deficit spending is simply nothing more than a “scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth.” And universal power.
W. Cleon Skousen in his book The Naked Capitalist points out that no small group, of course, can wield such gigantic power unless people in all walks of life are “in on the take” and willing to knuckle down to the ruthless bosses behind the scenes. Says Skousen, the network has succeeded in building its power structure by using tremendous quantities of money to manipulate, intimidate, and influence on a worldwide basis.
A review of Dr. Carroll Quigley’s book Tragedy and Hope shows that the control rests in “the financial dynasties of Europe and America who have exercised political control through the formation of international financial combines.
“These monopoly money dynasties learned the elementary lesson that all governments must have sources of revenue from which to borrow in times of emergency. By providing such funds, the international bankers can make both kings and democratic leaders subservient to their will.”
Quigley names who they are—and how they keep their immense wealth from the public by keeping their firms unincorporated, usually partnerships, offering no shares, no reports, and usually no advertising…
Dr. Ron Paul calls it the tyranny of paper money…
Somebody posted the url for a great film the other day on offshore tax havens used by first class London banks to launder money. The film revealed that there is at least $20 trillion in these offshore accounts. This is something we should all be aware of in thinking about how the illuminati conceal their wealth. The schemes for laundering money and concealing wealth are so intricate that it is impossible to trace the money and there is no hope of recovering the money. The suggestion was to go to the third world countries where many of the west's top corporations earn their dirty money and force them to open their books before the money is sent off to the City in London to be made untraceable. $20 trillion in stolen money in these accounts, and probably more than that.
FYI - 60 Minutes is going to do a piece tonight on the fact folks in Congress can insider trade legally - about to blow up to the mainstream. Video of the topic friday from CNBC - quite disgusting,
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/11/video-cnbc-delves-deeper-into-fact.html
EFSF is just stage 1
For the real transfer of power there has to be a little more instability so that the ESM (due to be launched in mid-2013) can be in total control.
How does the ESM work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism
the details: http://consilium.europa.eu/media/1216793/esm%20treaty%20en.pdf
or for the 2.0 generation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNa5k0KCVbw
The game theory above is generally sound and presents a number of possible, if not likely, scenarios. The main problem I have with it is that while it allows, heavily, for the moral hazard of the borrower, it does not allow for any moral hazard on the part of the lender. This is understandable as the proposed game model matches the global financial markets as currently structured.
By basing the global financial system on debt derivatives, moral hazard has been displaced from a necessarily shared balance between borrower and lender. The presumption on the part of those purchasing derivatives is that, being AAA rated, they contain no risk, and thus offer no moral hazard to the lender. Obviously this type of system cannot but fail as it does not reflect reality. Just like there's no free lunch, there's no such thing as profit potential without risk.
The US will detonate a crude but working nuclear device in the middle east soon enough and claim it was Iran. This will prompt a retalitory strike by USA and its allies leading to another 5-10 TRILLION in US debt increase. Just watch.
omit
Let the system crash and burn. So why is the ECB going to prolong this mess? This makes no sense.
libertarian86.blogspot.com
In my view, perhaps the most important passage in the "Euro is Dead" article is, “the ECB has become a weapon of political (de)stabilization.” Frighteningly, this passage connects up with a passage from a Mike Whitney CounterPunch article:
“The ECB refuses to use the tools that are available to it because its overall policy objectives are already being achieved. Internal devaluation and belt-tightening are the path to privatization, fewer social services, and cheaper labor, exactly what the bankers want.” [Mike Whitney, "Europe's Crash Landing," CounterPunch, http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/11/11/europes-crash-landing/]
Whitney seems less insightful, presuming the bankers' can achieve "privatization, fewer social services, and cheaper labor," while still retaining political and social order. As Durden seems to imply, this is a wholly problematic assumption. What is more likely is at least most contemporary parties in power being thrown out in coming elections, and at most a more violent overthrow of European governments. This leaves the financial future of the world, frankly, in serious doubt. Neo-liberalism has been experimented with at least once before on the Eurpoean continent. It did not end well for Lewis XVI or Marie Antoinette. Indeed, "heads may roll" over the incompetence of the ECB.
Nice post. I enjoyed reading it.
In my opinion, all the recent negativity in the press regarding the European debt crisis has created a tremendous buying opportunity for US stocks.
The Invetrics system just gave a long term "Buy" signal as of the close of 11/11/11 with a new DJIA target of 13,500! You heard it here first.
admin,
http://invetrics.com
Sorry, that was a typo. I meant to say 15,500 which is about 27.6% higher!
admin
http://invetrics.com
Looks like we are moving higher today! The Invetrics long term Buy signal of 11/11/11 will likely get confirmed!
admin
http://invetrics.com
make you cheap bridesmaid dresses far more attractive. Any time you opt for white party dresses for juniors, you are able to easily entice the people eyes.Do you have interest wedding dresses in white get together dresses for juniors? If that's the case, please stop by our on the internet store.cheap hoemcoming dresses We supply you white celebration