Euro, Futures Rise Overnight Despite Greek Two Year Bonds Soaring To Record High 46.38%
If we crossed through some spacetime vortex that brought us back in time just two short months ago, to July of this year, today's confirmation that the second Greek bailout has now failed, following the Finnish finance minister's comments that the country will defy Germany and will not give in to demands to abandon its deal for Greek collateral, which in turn has sent the Greek 2 year bond bidless, its yield up 227 bps to an all time record 46.38%, would have been enough to send the futures and the EURUSD plunging. Not today. Instead, the EURUSD soared to a high of 1.4475 overnight, on two things that indicate no marginal improvement in the situation, but no deterioration either, namely: that the ECB continued to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, pushing their spreads to Bunds tighter on the day, and since tighter is the opposite of wider, the market can safely stick its head under the sand. A just as big factor was that borrowing under the ECB's overnight lending facility plunged to a one week low of €42 million after hitting a recent high of €2,822 million yesterday as noted. And with the WSJ noticing this development just a little late (as last week), the contraction, nevermind that another surge in borrowing is coming shortly, has been the big risk on sign for European markets, which in turn have pushed US futures higher, even as the market is getting increasingly nervous that Bernanke could very well disappoint significantly tomorrow. As usual, keep an eye on Libor, OIS spreads, and all other liquidity metrics, which indicate that despite the contraction in the overnight borrowing with the ECB, Europe's liquidity is far from normal.
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