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Euro Sovereign CDS Rerack: Germany Hits Record; Belgium Imploding

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Two months ago we said core European default risk is about to surge on risk transfer fears. This morning German CDS just hit a record. Yesterday, and on Friday, we said Belgium CDS is about to be monkeyhammered. Sure enough, Belgium is the worst performed of all European sovereigns, +18 on the day and soaring and threatens to go offerless as we type on imminent Dexia nationalization fears. And there's your alpha for the day.

                                5Y               10Y          5/10's                           

    ITALY              468/478  +3      444/458      -30/-10                           
    SPAIN             373/383  0       346/362      -30/-10                           
    PORTUGAL     1100/1140 +15     835/905     -280/-220                           
    IRELAND         680/720  0       500/570     -195/-135                          
    GREECE            59/63   0        60/64      -0.5/2.5
    WAFFLED        273/283  +18     268/282       -8/2                             
    FRANCE         185/191  +3    199.5/205.5     12/17                             
    AUSTRIA        171/179  +5    188.5/196.5     15/20                             
    UK                  96/100  +3    112.5/117.5     15/19                          
    GERMANY      117/121  +5    136.5/141.5     17/21

Index levels:

    XO 853/859 +16                          
    MAIN 205/207 +5 
    Sen Fin 280/285 +7 sub 532/545 0

 

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Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:24 | 1732635 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Halp us, Sudden Debt and me are from Europe and the BONDZILLA HAS FOUND THE VIAGRA PILLS!!

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:33 | 1732653 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

EdF, what is the world on the street regarding Spain? The weakest link is not in the news, at all. Even though it's right up there on the list.

Why? Curious, no?

ORI

 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:39 | 1732667 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Spain is seven weeks from a government shift so even in Rumorville it´s pretty pointless to try to make statements about the future. Spain is also actually trying the ECB window dressing austerity measures with varying reuslts.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:44 | 1732681 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Thanks SwedishC. Just curious, why the overtly sexual avaatar? Just curious.

ORI

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:46 | 1732691 The Swedish Chef
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People keep messing with those softcore titty avatars so I thought I´d raise the bar to a European standard. By the way, it´s actually a .gif ending with a nice (prolly faked) squirt....

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:55 | 1732710 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hah, how Swedish of you. Gif is not working, perhaps just as well! :-)

ORI

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 12:56 | 1733597 JLee2027
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Nothing prolly about it.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:40 | 1732674 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Ever since Italy started widening over Spain (5yr CDS) ITA has been more in the focus than the latter. Spain can potentially be bailed out, a la Ireland. Italy, cant. Also lots of arb in here with the basis as fucked as it is btw bonds and CDS. Bonds being manipulated and bought by ECB, CDS not as much.

Hence the shift.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:45 | 1732685 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Italy and spain, both clearly having some "Catholic" blessing on them, clearly. Thanks for the response ZP.

ORI

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 13:01 | 1733618 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

The governments who have bankrupted themselves are Catholics? Please explain

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:58 | 1732720 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Spain manufacturing PMI hit 27-month low today @ 43,7. Roughly same level as Greece!!!

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:39 | 1732665 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Even worse, you are about to get Dexia-ed, another bailout that will saddle you and yours with huge amounts of debt. The  european body politic is watching Dexia helplessly,  as the blood squirts out of this headless monstrosity, waiting  for its inevitable demise.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:26 | 1732643 Pretorian
Pretorian's picture

Belgium doesnt have government for the last few years, they cant agree who will run the country. Its a strange they are rated AAA lol.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:32 | 1732657 Fate
Fate's picture

Not strange at all.  Governments are irrelevant to the SICs (Sociopaths-in-Charge).  Governments do not set policy.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:34 | 1732660 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Dexia sets policy with leverage of 250:1

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:55 | 1732711 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

I am sure if you dig deeper...you will definately find GS in there somewhere...advising, consulting etc...to the Belgium policy makers...

 

 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:44 | 1732683 GoldBricker
GoldBricker's picture

Don't worry, all parties will agree to the bailout pronto when they get their orders from their real bosses. This goes by the name of "bi-partisan cooperation", or something like that, in the U.S., but it's the same everywhere that isn't Iceland.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:55 | 1732713 Mister Ponzi
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If I remember correctly, the Belgian rating is Aa1/AA+ at Moody's/S&P.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:33 | 1732652 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

CDS says we want the D-mark back, Eurobonds are a distant past.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:40 | 1732672 Minoan
Minoan's picture

Germany has a great trade surplus and record low unempoyment.The mark will strengthen so much that all their expensive products,will become unreachable.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:47 | 1732693 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Remains to be seen although your point is the logically correct one. Perhaps, one day, we'll enter a non-fiat world where having a strong currency will be an asset to a sovereign until then...

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:38 | 1732666 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Since TPTB are buying "assets" all over the place ... who are these counterparties?  Buffet? Soros?  PIMCO?  The Squid?  Surely ... don't call me Shirely ... this is a lose lose situation.  The house is playing against itself.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:41 | 1732677 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Germany's in no immediate trouble until the CDS curve gets inverted a la PIIGS

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:46 | 1732692 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Anyone seen RobotTroll and his Dow 15K preDICKtions?

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:49 | 1732702 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

"WAFFLED"

LOL.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:35 | 1732801 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

After the collapse, we can say "TOASTED"

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:54 | 1732709 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

I still say Germany is going to pop up and leave the euro after they give their last 200B to the vacuum fund. 'Here's your 200B, now piss off.' Or something like that.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:56 | 1732714 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

With ECB monetizing Spanish and Italian bonds both reversed their losses early today. Now even Belgium's bonds have turned and are outright tighter than Friday's close.

ECB has basically destroyed all and any price discovery in european sovereign bond "markets" and i'll hold my breath how long the manipulated illusion can be contained.

 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:57 | 1732717 TheLooza
TheLooza's picture

Um.  I think I'm going to monkey hammer every fucking thing I see today, because that phrase...that phrase...just does it for me.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:58 | 1732718 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Tick Tock, Tick Tock, Tick Tock.... you get my drift:)

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:59 | 1732721 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The premise of "more countries equals a stronger euro" was flawed from the outset. Germany can't bail out the entire euro-zone. It would have been a more stable economy with just Germany, France, and the Nordic states (ex iceland). Greece and Italy have always had problems managing a currency.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:35 | 1732795 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

 

The waffles are on fire!

The eu is like a rowing race
Except germany is the only one rowing
The french is the cox telling everyone else what to do but noones listening 
And the rest are smoking cigarettes.

 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:56 | 1732855 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Pity about Belgium. Such a lovely country. Such friendly people. And the food ... to die for. Oh well.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:33 | 1733020 ZeeGerman
ZeeGerman's picture

sarcasm at its finest?

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:45 | 1733064 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Thank you ZG

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 15:46 | 1766916 karmete
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