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Euro Sovereign CDS Rerack: Germany Hits Record; Belgium Imploding
Two months ago we said core European default risk is about to surge on risk transfer fears. This morning German CDS just hit a record. Yesterday, and on Friday, we said Belgium CDS is about to be monkeyhammered. Sure enough, Belgium is the worst performed of all European sovereigns, +18 on the day and soaring and threatens to go offerless as we type on imminent Dexia nationalization fears. And there's your alpha for the day.
5Y 10Y 5/10's
ITALY 468/478 +3 444/458 -30/-10
SPAIN 373/383 0 346/362 -30/-10
PORTUGAL 1100/1140 +15 835/905 -280/-220
IRELAND 680/720 0 500/570 -195/-135
GREECE 59/63 0 60/64 -0.5/2.5
WAFFLED 273/283 +18 268/282 -8/2
FRANCE 185/191 +3 199.5/205.5 12/17
AUSTRIA 171/179 +5 188.5/196.5 15/20
UK 96/100 +3 112.5/117.5 15/19
GERMANY 117/121 +5 136.5/141.5 17/21
Index levels:
XO 853/859 +16
MAIN 205/207 +5
Sen Fin 280/285 +7 sub 532/545 0
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Halp us, Sudden Debt and me are from Europe and the BONDZILLA HAS FOUND THE VIAGRA PILLS!!
EdF, what is the world on the street regarding Spain? The weakest link is not in the news, at all. Even though it's right up there on the list.
Why? Curious, no?
ORI
Spain is seven weeks from a government shift so even in Rumorville it´s pretty pointless to try to make statements about the future. Spain is also actually trying the ECB window dressing austerity measures with varying reuslts.
Thanks SwedishC. Just curious, why the overtly sexual avaatar? Just curious.
ORI
People keep messing with those softcore titty avatars so I thought I´d raise the bar to a European standard. By the way, it´s actually a .gif ending with a nice (prolly faked) squirt....
Hah, how Swedish of you. Gif is not working, perhaps just as well! :-)
ORI
Nothing prolly about it.
Ever since Italy started widening over Spain (5yr CDS) ITA has been more in the focus than the latter. Spain can potentially be bailed out, a la Ireland. Italy, cant. Also lots of arb in here with the basis as fucked as it is btw bonds and CDS. Bonds being manipulated and bought by ECB, CDS not as much.
Hence the shift.
Italy and spain, both clearly having some "Catholic" blessing on them, clearly. Thanks for the response ZP.
ORI
The governments who have bankrupted themselves are Catholics? Please explain
Spain manufacturing PMI hit 27-month low today @ 43,7. Roughly same level as Greece!!!
Even worse, you are about to get Dexia-ed, another bailout that will saddle you and yours with huge amounts of debt. The european body politic is watching Dexia helplessly, as the blood squirts out of this headless monstrosity, waiting for its inevitable demise.
Belgium doesnt have government for the last few years, they cant agree who will run the country. Its a strange they are rated AAA lol.
Not strange at all. Governments are irrelevant to the SICs (Sociopaths-in-Charge). Governments do not set policy.
Dexia sets policy with leverage of 250:1
I am sure if you dig deeper...you will definately find GS in there somewhere...advising, consulting etc...to the Belgium policy makers...
Don't worry, all parties will agree to the bailout pronto when they get their orders from their real bosses. This goes by the name of "bi-partisan cooperation", or something like that, in the U.S., but it's the same everywhere that isn't Iceland.
If I remember correctly, the Belgian rating is Aa1/AA+ at Moody's/S&P.
CDS says we want the D-mark back, Eurobonds are a distant past.
Germany has a great trade surplus and record low unempoyment.The mark will strengthen so much that all their expensive products,will become unreachable.
Remains to be seen although your point is the logically correct one. Perhaps, one day, we'll enter a non-fiat world where having a strong currency will be an asset to a sovereign until then...
Since TPTB are buying "assets" all over the place ... who are these counterparties? Buffet? Soros? PIMCO? The Squid? Surely ... don't call me Shirely ... this is a lose lose situation. The house is playing against itself.
Germany's in no immediate trouble until the CDS curve gets inverted a la PIIGS
Anyone seen RobotTroll and his Dow 15K preDICKtions?
"WAFFLED"
LOL.
After the collapse, we can say "TOASTED"
I still say Germany is going to pop up and leave the euro after they give their last 200B to the vacuum fund. 'Here's your 200B, now piss off.' Or something like that.
With ECB monetizing Spanish and Italian bonds both reversed their losses early today. Now even Belgium's bonds have turned and are outright tighter than Friday's close.
ECB has basically destroyed all and any price discovery in european sovereign bond "markets" and i'll hold my breath how long the manipulated illusion can be contained.
Um. I think I'm going to monkey hammer every fucking thing I see today, because that phrase...that phrase...just does it for me.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock, Tick Tock.... you get my drift:)
The premise of "more countries equals a stronger euro" was flawed from the outset. Germany can't bail out the entire euro-zone. It would have been a more stable economy with just Germany, France, and the Nordic states (ex iceland). Greece and Italy have always had problems managing a currency.
The waffles are on fire!
The eu is like a rowing race
Except germany is the only one rowing
The french is the cox telling everyone else what to do but noones listening
And the rest are smoking cigarettes.
Pity about Belgium. Such a lovely country. Such friendly people. And the food ... to die for. Oh well.
sarcasm at its finest?
Thank you ZG
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