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Europe: "The Flaw"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We have posted various extracts from this piece from Credit Suisse previously. We will post from it again, because, to loosely paraphrase Lewis Black, it bears reposting... especially in the context of the latest and greatest Greek "bailout" (of Europe's bankers), which incidentally, will achieve nothing and merely bring the country one step closer to a military coup and/or civil war.

The flaw

The market is essentially proceeding on the assumption, as we see it, that banks’ capital requirements can be met organically, through earnings and deleveraging. We want to be very careful about leaning too hard on this; we have insisted for a long time that the banking system needs to shrink, and that the capital markets would grow to match. But this is not a short-term process and cannot be, if it is to remain orderly.

 The 2011 consensus range of bank capital requirements was € 100bn to €400bn; the log. average, €200bn, always seemed like a sensible estimate to us. The market is proceeding on the assumption that the need has all but gone away; many estimates now centre on €50bn. Such numbers strike us as ridiculous; the Greek banks alone are absorbing that (see above) and Anglo-Irish absorbed €30bn. This is (yet) another of those cases where a number is small until it is needed, at which point it grows.

But the market has made these moves in thinking despite our long asserting the premise that liquidity cannot cure a solvency issue, and it is liquidity that has been the big change.

What’s happened?

Partly, “the paradox of thrift”. Each bank individually can credibly plan to delever, but collectively the system cannot. But even if the inherent contradiction is recognised, it is hard to act on immediately.

Debt is no cure for debt. What it can do is prevent a self-fuelling Fisher-style debt-deflation and it is clear that the LTRO has at least to some extent achieved that. And it can buy time such that, if the basic business model is restored, solvency can be earned. But we are not sure the business model has been restored; far from it. Here again, our caution and outright mistrust needs to be tempered, and at least patient. But the apparent widespread notion that the LTRO is a game-changer simply does not wash in our view, because of our premise. Game-saver (no Fisher); yes. Game-extender, which makes it a potential gamechanger [Let’s torture a football analogy. If you are down at full time, injury time at least give you a chance, but cannot guarantee a win, unless for a potentially infinite period of your choice. Not every game can be France England 13 June 2004; 0-1 at full time, 2-1 after injury time as Zinedane Zidane proved that football is a game of two halves and two minutes. But every game has an exante chance to do this; even Germany-England, 1 September 2001, which is the rough equivalent of the situation facing the European banking system, in our view; 5-1 at full time with approximately four minutes added.]; yes. Outright game-changer; no.

So what’s the flaw?

The flaw is that, even in 2012, we retain respect for markets. Unfettered, they are not the tool of choice for resolving the current situation but we see it as essential to work with them and harness their power, rather than against them, as we discussed in Twelve  Steps.

In Greece it is now clear that the process of avoiding a credit event for the past 21 months has been ruinously expensive. Frustrate the markets (again, individuals making rational, fiduciary decisions, not some conspiracy pursuing an agenda) and they will find a way around the frustration, in our view; in the meantime, costs will increase due to the inefficiencies created, as has happened in Greece.

The result that we now expect in the European banking system is in our view rather beautiful.

The Basel Accords have a patchy track record – to put it at its most generous – and the EBA has almost no track record at all and as we see it, even less credibility in the eyes of the market. The market is fickle (and in this situation self-fuelling, so it must be tempered; indeed it has been by the LTRO), so it cannot even trust its own estimates (as stated above, they are all over the map). But it cannot be frustrated in seeking comfort on such an important issue as restoring trust in the biggest banking system in the world, in our view.

In the banking system just as in Greece, the rescue funds are coming in at a senior level. There are therefore two kinds of bank; those with the market’s full confidence, which will be able to fund at a “senior” but partially subordinated level, and which can repay everything without question [Or, are seen as being able to even at sub level. Either they take advantage of the very attractive ECB funding on offer or issue covered bonds, for example, with no risk or entering the self-fuelling subordination loop.] and those who cannot. The price of time to the latter is ever-further subordination in a  self-fuelling circle. Over time, the market will empirically, and with efficient pricing, weigh the liability side of the balance sheet versus the asset side, less haircuts (so haircuts become the de-facto capital requirement), tranche by tranche, maturity by maturity, and see what happens. If there is any insolvency in the European banking system, it will eventually appear, independent of Basel or EBA requirements (which may still becoming binding, of course). But it is hard to see how it appears before some time has elapsed. In this environment, competition for retail deposits, of which the European banking system is chronically short, largely because of its size, will become ever more intense.

Inevitably, due to the mark-to-market nature of repo, the banking system is now even more sensitive to mark-to-market, further baking volatility into the cake. This reinforces our idea that the ultimate arbiter of bank capitalization is the senior unsecured market.

We suspect that organic earnings retention cannot be the solution. According to ECB data, the aggregate post-tax profits of the banks of all EU27 countries were €46.8bn in H1 2011, more than 100% accounted for by large banks (medium-sized banks lost $1.8bn). This pattern has been persistent since the unusual 2008 year (see Exhibit 2).

It is impossible to extract trends from this table, but it clearly does not invalidate a hypothesis that weaker banks (where by definition capital needs are concentrated) might take a long time to earn the requisite capital. Even if capital needs were heterogeneously distributed, which they are not, a period of weak profitability and capital needs at the upper end of the spectrum would suggest a long period. And during that period, we salami-slice balance sheets. Watch your fingers.

 

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Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:12 | 2149961 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

inflate it away.. bonds still pricing worry - http://hedge.ly/wLJT3k

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:17 | 2150052 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What isn't pricing worry.  Gold at all time (nominal) highs (good enough to trick people into thinking it is in a bubble) silver testing its nominal high just a short year ago, oil back at highs but on limited US demand, mass curruption at city, county, state, and federal levels, the human race more concerned with dying hollywood stars than they are with the real heavens and more interested in faux presidential races instead of understanding the Dialectic they have been boxed into.

Even those who are not ignorant shhrug off the fact the the word fiat by definition means "not real".  We will pretend our way into the future and let bygones be bygones!  Who needs history! 

What's on the tube?

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:19 | 2150056 Hulk
Hulk's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJSgZYUnQn0

 

There's a sale at Pennys!!!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:28 | 2150080 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Or SHLD.  Should we buy SLHD?  It's a recovery afterall!

I am surprised that one of our faux trolls haven't caught on that bulls are touting a recovery beyond imagine.  You would think Robo or Hamy would be writing such.  I guess even the trolls aren't as stupid as Liz Ann Sonders.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:55 | 2150116 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Off TOPIC! FYI for the Family.

 

So far this year, at least 180 drugs that are crucial for treating childhood leukemia, breast and colon cancer, infections and other diseases have been declared in short supply — a record number.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46351047/ns/health-the_new_york_times/

 

How much money will Wall Street save if they can rid America of these Genetically Inferior or Genetically Defective Children?

If they are not cured? They don’t grow up and have children and spread the disease. And long term, Exponential Growth of the Genetically Defective.. that would need to be treated.. in inflated dollars! Instead of a straight drop down profit!

 

WAIT!!!

 

You think that there could Never be a concerted effort against We the People.. to that scope and scale? LOL!! FOOL(s)!!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compulsory_sterilization

 

180 Drugs to keep alive.. Genetically Defective People who would then Procreate! To spread these expensive diseases too!

 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! That would never happen! Just like the We the People would NEVER! Pay Wall Street to keep us enslaved in debt.. and then pay them the interest.. to keep us that much more enslaved!! We the People are FARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR! To aware of what’s going on to allow anything like these things to happen!

 

Bill gates promotes population control on CNN

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syHdzFVaSz8

and for all of you that said he slipped that one time he said Population Control @ TED! Are Fucking Stupid! Not Ignorant!!

Only the Genetically Weak or defective will die from the Vaccines’! LOL!!

Bill Gates EXPOSED Progressive?! Wants Population Control Through Vaccines "something I love"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNyo0Gu7064

 

here is the obligatory Rockefeller clip. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClqUcScwnn8

 

but far more important.. here is the MAN! Telling you why.. and the math that you can back check yourself.. You can repeat the outcome with very simple numbers that NO ONE CAN REASONABLY doubt.

Dr Albert Barlett Clip on The Exponential Function

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uec0F_onVA

 

you sheep should kill each other.. and “We the Rich and Ubber Entitled Lucky Sperm Club Blue Bloods” can come in and strip you of your gun rights.. because all you do is kill each other..

it would be for your own protection!

And then rule you.. peacefully and profitably.. as possible!

“We the Rich and Ubber Entitled Lucky Sperm Club Blue Bloods” of course reserve the right to kill you off.. I mean allow you to kill each other off and then save you again from yourselves.. the whole time being the hero’s that we have programmed you to need!

 

Please stay tuned to the heavy rotation of ugly facts and how it was ALL the Jews Fault! As the will be the catalyst!

Once again, “We the Rich and Ubber Entitled Lucky Sperm Club Blue Bloods” could Not! do it without your consistent ignorance!

 

Now get out there and Kill each other!

 

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:02 | 2150126 johnu1978
johnu1978's picture

The whole global financial system is "FLAWED!".

 

-John
Teaser
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYdWz1WjzYI&feature=player_embedded

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:10 | 2150205 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

This seems like an awfully long winded way of saying that the flaw in Europes plan is that the banks are insolvent. Like we didn't know that.

I'm sure it's come as a revelation to many that smaller banks will have more difficulty in 'earning' their way back to solvency than bigger banks that have access to taxpayer cash.

Whoopy shit, I feel enlightened already, or did I miss something...

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:07 | 2150292 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

So, they need to do what we do here. Give the banks ZERO interest dollars (theoretically to keep the system liquid).

The banks buy govt. bonds with interest.

 The banks make that money, the govt. gets it's debt bought.....badda bing, badda boom, everybodys happy.....well, at least, everyone that counts.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 03:55 | 2150448 prains
prains's picture

Too Broke To Bank

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:33 | 2150221 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

The system's not broken, it's "FIXED!".

Was just researching on the possibility of a military coup in Greece and decided to take a peak at ZH for a news update.  Low and behold, this post is at the top. Go figure.

Here's some articles on the topic:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/12/greece-cant-take-any-more?newsfeed=true

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2011/10/26/the-real-greek-solution-a-military-coup/

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/241915/20111102/greece-papandreou-eu-bailout-military-officers-coup.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_military_junta_of_1967%E2%80%931974

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 08:52 | 2150575 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

I'm sorta counting on Turkey moving in some troops, just to maintain order, of course.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 10:04 | 2150620 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Off topic

That's what I was going to say.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:25 | 2150068 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

But Whiteny Houston just died. Show some respect.

IIII-EE-IIIIIIIIIIIIII...WI-HIL...AH-UH-ALWAYS.... LUH-UHVE... YAH-OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:33 | 2150088 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Really?  Was it Bobby B or the cocaine that got her?

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:23 | 2150129 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

And to think Keith Richards chronologically could have been her father.   Party on Whitney.  Party on Warren.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ibe85f_Tqw&feature=g-vrec&context=G2de33...

 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 14:57 | 2151098 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Long live Keith Richards.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:20 | 2150145 Hulk
Hulk's picture

SHe really did take the big dirt nap. Looks like drugs and alcohol, what a waste...

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:28 | 2150154 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Needs updating, or is perhaps timeless.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2cijNKu9qceed

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 07:27 | 2150525 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

Those that can get pass mouthing tabloid headlines should read the following. Scroll down about half way and read about Houston's programming.

http://mindcontrolblackassassins.wordpress.com/2010/12/28/mind-rape-of-t...

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 16:52 | 2151325 donsluck
donsluck's picture

whatever

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 08:56 | 2150577 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Crack is whack!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:41 | 2150166 entropos
entropos's picture

GOODBYE BRITTANY HOUSTON WE WILL ALWAYS MISS YOU THANK YOU FOR YOUR WORK WITH THE ORPHANS 

http://i.imgur.com/6Ygyz.jpg 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:16 | 2150208 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Great picture of her. I will always remember her when she had straight blonde hair and she and Bobby were still in love. I bet Bobby is taking it hard.

http://bit.ly/yMuTWe

 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:35 | 2150232 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Here is a great picture of her and Bobby.  I will never forget.

 

http://fc05.deviantart.net/fs50/i/2009/271/b/c/Michael_Jackson_by_Hongmi...

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:46 | 2150106 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

http://www.math.osu.edu/~conrad.44/lang/lvfieri.html

"fiat lux", MLH...as they say in Latin.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 08:12 | 2150548 max2205
max2205's picture

3 rd year on the Fed bull market going for 4.... Higher highs and lower lows

Get over it. Next leg up will be awesome but be nimble

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:38 | 2150096 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

What a pile of gibberish this was! The football analogies are terrible too, anything to do with the French deserves to be beaten with a stick!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:13 | 2149962 Hulk
Hulk's picture

OK, here's the fucking deal: I'll give anyone, who can place me in suspended animation and then wake me the fuck up when this shit is said and done,one million post apocaliptic bucks...

This shit is like watching "lost" or having a lifetime of sex with no orgasm ...

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:24 | 2149981 damage
damage's picture

I'll pay two million!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:44 | 2150001 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture
Europe: "The Flaw" = The Eurozone is a NWO test tube baby & it's not working... THAT's the flaw... Good night & God bless...
Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:53 | 2150016 Jason T
Jason T's picture

We're all waiting for the Great Pumpkin.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiSIQzwIPzQ

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:12 | 2150042 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

having a lifetime of sex with no orgasm ...  In the future you will wake up in that is not an issue:  2 min video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Isrd7E5nzIQ

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:24 | 2150066 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I appreciate you bringing my nightmares into semi reality...

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:35 | 2150091 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Heh!  Just think of sex with no orgasm like running on the treadmill.  You don't get anywhere but it's still cardio...

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:39 | 2150097 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"I think we should have had sex, but there weren't enough people"

I hate when that happens.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:44 | 2150105 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Thats why I rototill my garden with a shovel (after burning it off) I get a workout with something to show...

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:11 | 2150043 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Tyler, here is something I found on ekathimerini comments, although I can vouch for all the data. Its a good read from a Greek citizen perspective.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_10/02/2012_427197

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 07:47 | 2150538 fiddy pence haf...
fiddy pence haff pound's picture

the future is tantric

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:16 | 2149969 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"The result that we now expect in the European banking system is in our view rather beautiful."

Eh?

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:31 | 2149991 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Watch your fingers.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:52 | 2150013 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

I want that cake recipie...

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:17 | 2149971 CatoTheElder
CatoTheElder's picture

It is indeed a lot like "Lost". Shit keeps getting wierder and wierder, and we're finally going to learn that all the characters are, in fact, dead.  I suppose, however, a cross between "Lost" and a zombie flick would be closer to the mark.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:20 | 2150060 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Is that how LOST ended?  They were dead the whole time!  Shit....

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:26 | 2150071 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Thats why they never had no orgasms. Dead folks don't have orgasms...

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:31 | 2150084 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Noted

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 16:58 | 2151334 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Unfortunatly, Lost being a bunch of people in purgatory is like a dream episode in a series. Totally worthless and manipulative, Here viewers are trying to figure it all out and it turns out, after YEARS, there really is NO STORY! But, TV is a waste of time anyways.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:22 | 2149976 Gunga
Gunga's picture

.There's a time when the operation of the machine becomes so odious—makes you so sick at heart—that you can't take part. You can't even passively take part. And you've got to put your bodies upon the gears and upon the wheels, upon the levers, upon all the apparatus, and you've got to make it stop. And you've got to indicate to the people who run it, to the people who own it, that unless you're free, the machine will be prevented from working at all."

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:42 | 2150168 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Who dat say dat?

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:57 | 2150355 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Mario Savio -- 1964

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:32 | 2149987 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

How gentlemanly to think this is a matter of bankers just needing some advice or more regulation on capital requirements and other prudent banking practices. Not a thought to the possibility that moral hazard, fraud, and criminality are rampant in the banking system. And that maybe, just maybe, we need balls-to-the-walls prosecutions of the bankstas and their aiders and abettors in government.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nPEgV1oqX0

 

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:50 | 2149999 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Criminality would apply in an arena governed by the Rule of Law.  Since there are 2 sets of law books (minimum), one for you and for the elites, there is no criminality since business-as-usual defines the event. Can you really  expect to be saved from disaster if the bureaucrats, politicians, Royals, Wall Streeters and other Fascists are held to the same level of accountability as little people? How could they do God's Work and save the world in such a confined environment?

Besides, at the end of the day it's all YOUR fault. You trusted people you shouldn't have trusted. You elected people you shouldn't have elected. You tried to live your own life when you should have been vigilant and become a Community Organizer. Just because hindsight is 20-20 and you now know of the crimes YOU committed and can clearly admit that your ignorance is no excuse it won't get you any mercy. You have been condemned to a life sentence and will have to obtain a lobotomy immdiately if you want any relief.

 

 

 Crime and bad lives are the measure of a State's failure, all crime in the end is the crime of the community.
H. G. Wells


Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:38 | 2149995 pjeshka.com
pjeshka.com's picture

weak

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:39 | 2149996 navy62802
navy62802's picture

I'm just going to wait for that March 20th bond payment to come due. As it stands now, March 20th is the only hard deadline that exists. Everything else is just bullshit.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:39 | 2150098 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

On March 20th they will get a bridge loan.

yada yada yada

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:42 | 2150169 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Probably. But as it stands, 20 March is the only hard deadline. Everything else is just BS. Either they come to a solution to pay for those bonds or they don't. That's the end of the story.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:40 | 2149997 ekm
ekm's picture

"...which incidentally, will achieve nothing and merely bring the country one step closer to a military coup and/or civil war..."

Finally it's being understood. Greece's importance has got nothing to do with finance. If what ZH finally uttered above comes true, the MILITARY DEFENCE of Europe will get weaker.

If ones read a short version of greek history as of 2nd world war, it gets really clear that USA and Europe literally PAY Greece to use its territory for defence purpose.

- Civil war 1949 - USA/UK vs USSR

- Military Junta - USA/Europe fully backed

- End of Junta and start of democracy FULLY FINANCED by USA/Europe up until now.

People, Greece is too important for European Defence. Just chekc Google maps as to the very important geographical location. Check island of Crete where one of the most important military bases in the world is located.

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Souda_Bay

Gents, Banks vs Greece. Banks will lose. No chance. And that's right. Screw the banks.

Full disclosure: I am not greek, nor am I of greek descent.


Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:50 | 2150108 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Turkey looks more strategically significant to me...

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:15 | 2150139 ekm
ekm's picture

Correct. But people are not reliable, particularly now.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:35 | 2150158 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

If Greece collapses and decides to rebuild on its own Turkey will DEFINATELY question the wisdom of trying to cozy up to the dying empire that is the EU/USSA and may decide to try and build alliances with Russians and or Persians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffer_state

 

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:58 | 2150184 ekm
ekm's picture

Theoretically it could happen. Quite a long shot.

Just keep the Russians out. Have you noticed what's happening in Chechnya?

What I'm talking about is CURRENT PRACTICAL PROBABILITY. This where Greece wins over bankers. And they've known that all along. That's why they've wasted all monies they received on pensions at 55 and government work.

There is an implicit guarantee of bailing out the banks? Yes.

But, there is an implicit guarantee of financially keeping greece afloat in exchange for territorial military control that US, UK and others have over Greece.

 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:02 | 2150189 ekm
ekm's picture

Greece could never have afforded all goodies since after the civil war in 1949 unless given by US, UK and Europe for so many years.

REMINDER: EUROSTAT KNEW GREECE COOKED THE BOOKS.

There is bail out and there is BAIL OUT.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:21 | 2150218 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I'm not predicting anything, I am pointing out the importance of Greece to Europe UK and the USSA. 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:48 | 2150256 ekm
ekm's picture

United Socialist States of America????

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:35 | 2150339 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Nyet...Soviet haha

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:56 | 2150354 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Greece may be as important as you say.  Turkey has cooled its jets and has told the UN to not sanction Iran.  Both are major chokepoints.

Yet so are Iran and Israel.  The chokepoints are getting the most pressure from abroad, which tells me something big is cooking.

Now that we have considered the geo-politicvs, the PM charts look ripe for a breakout.  I like the charts, and think the breakout will happen in 2-3 weeks.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 03:12 | 2150413 zipfish
zipfish's picture

They aren't important yet but maybe could be if they engineer the situation.  Greece has long lived of subsidy by powers with an agenda, be it the British boxing in the Ottomans or the Americans keeping the commies out.  As it is they aren't important enough any more to anybody.

If they were smart the Greeks would make moves to become a Chinese satellite state, allowing the Chinese to put naval and air bases in the Mediterranean.  This would move Greece up the priority list for the Americans and Europeans, either that or they could just actually take the Chinese cash after all.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 08:03 | 2150545 fiddy pence haf...
fiddy pence haff pound's picture

Nice idea. Chinese bases on the Med.

However, if you look at history, any time the Russkies

tried to get a foothold in the Med, the US or UK stepped in.

On Cyprus, it led to the assassination attempt on Makarios

that gave Turkey the green light to invade.

Cyprus put Russian S300 missiles in the silo and the US got them moved.

That's why the EU has no choice but to allow the UK to keep 2 bases on Cyprus.

That's one reason why the mnimonio specifically states (if you agree to follow its dictates)

that Greece cannot seek help from any other country. Greece has been 'protected'

by its pimp, the EU.

You see, the Greeks have already thought of it, but are not allowed, ever!

BTW, Chinese governments don't think like the US. They don't want their soldiers

scaring or occupying. They buy ports and such things. Business. They've already bought into Greece.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 15:01 | 2151105 ekm
ekm's picture

Correct. All correct.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 09:45 | 2150599 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

you forgot Fascist

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 02:11 | 2150368 delacroix
delacroix's picture

didn't russia already loan cyprus a large sum? if greece loses cyprus, turkey, is first in line.(covert military action, just like iran, been goin on, and then there is the offshore oil and gas discoveries, in adjacent waters.)

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 08:06 | 2150546 fiddy pence haf...
fiddy pence haff pound's picture

Greece doesn't own Cyprus. It would be nice if those

two could cooperate more, but they don't. They'll

defend each other, militarily, but what's that worth?

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 07:54 | 2150540 fiddy pence haf...
fiddy pence haff pound's picture

lemme clarify two things.

Bailing out the government of Greece doesn't mean that the people will

not starve. Unless you think that will bring a revolution, which IMO it won't.

 

Turkey is also important but has recently shown itself hard to control.

 

I think the lock has been put on Greece so that any an all oil found under

the sea will go to US and UK oil companies. I'll bet they're waiting for Greece

to sign it over and then they'll let Greece out of jail.

 

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:48 | 2150007 non_anon
non_anon's picture

has it been that long already?

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:50 | 2150009 CreativeDestructor
CreativeDestructor's picture

LTRO = Long Term Rectal Ordeal

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:51 | 2150012 ekm
ekm's picture

"Inevitably, due to the mark-to-market nature of repo, the banking system is now even more sensitive to mark-to-market, further baking volatility into the cake. This reinforces our idea that the ultimate arbiter of bank capitalization is the senior unsecured market."

As soon as mark-to-market panic sets in, Lehman will look just triffle.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:55 | 2150020 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Blah, Blah, Blah.

Greece is gunna get the boot, but only after having served as a very public example of what can happen to those who fail to capitulate. Capiche? You will not want to be "like greece".

Portugal will be fine.

Italy is the real bitch. Italy will be the next Greece. It will be very bad and eventually, you will not want to be "like Italy".

Ireland will fuck the whole thing up and end the game.

On to Japan.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:46 | 2150031 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Greece is gunna get the boot, but only after having served as a very public example of what can happen to those who fail to capitulate. Capiche? You will not want to be "like greece".

It's all about teamwork and enthusiasms...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-sV-O2-jCY

EDIT: Warning, Graphic Violence - scene from The Untouchables

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:01 | 2150028 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i liked this one:

Each bank individually can credibly plan to delever, but collectively the system cannot.

so you can flush, but it's just gonna end up in the garage...?

or if you're lucky, the yard or the street, or maybe the school playground?

call now for our free brochure:  "12 Steps To Harnessing The Power Of Utter Bullshit"

here comes belushi w/ a slamiSlicer, BiCheZ!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:31 | 2150083 Hulk
Hulk's picture

The grass is always greener over the septic tank...but the ground is always mushy...

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:59 | 2150121 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

here's one from the "learn from the mistake!" file, hulk:

don't forget to tell the guy driving the cement mixer where the septic tank is!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:08 | 2150130 Hulk
Hulk's picture

LOL !!! Problem is, thats the only place without trees !!!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:37 | 2150163 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

here's to another hand-mixed bunker!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:05 | 2150030 The Watchman
The Watchman's picture

"The Flaw" - coming soon to a theater near you.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:11 | 2150045 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

What? There might eventually be an end to taxpayer funding of these criminal institutions and their central banker funds?  Sacre bleu, and say it aint so.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:23 | 2150064 monopoly
monopoly's picture

How do the German people put up with the destruction of what they have built up over so many years to keep the banks solvent?

And how do the Greek people allow their govt. to rape them, destroy all they have left so the bankers get paid? I just do not get it. Where are the people. 

What am I saying. We have the same problems here and not one "march of millions" on Washington. We are just as bad. The only difference, The Insane Asylum run by the Bernank keeps firing weapons of mass destruction, more debt.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:27 | 2150075 NERVEAGENTVX
NERVEAGENTVX's picture

"The flaw" (long story short) privatizing the profits for the banking cartel is no problem when things are good. When things turn south...how do you socialize the losses for taxpayers in 17 different countries with 17 different political systems? (I think it's 17 right?)

The banks have no problem lapping the gravy from the punch bowl, but when that gravy turns to piss, how do you get taxpayers in 17 different countries to line up and swallow their "fair" portion of the piss. So the punch bowl is ready to be filled with gravy (the toil and product of human labor) again?

At least that's the way I see it.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:27 | 2150077 onlooker
onlooker's picture

Very fun/educational article to read Tyler. plus 4 minutes and cheers mate

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:28 | 2150078 The4thStooge
The4thStooge's picture

Slow news day huh?

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:40 | 2150100 Hulk
Hulk's picture

The system is presently in "Groundhog day" mode. Whats a Durden to do ???

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:02 | 2150125 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

keep drinking tyler!

L0L!!!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:52 | 2150112 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

We are currently in the eye, but if you look out the window you will notice the wall.  Please feel free to get out your camera and take some pictures.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:28 | 2150079 Royal Fleming
Royal Fleming's picture

I realize most traders are or try to emotionless. Trade the market or chart thats in front of you. But irregardless of those thoughts and practices. You are watching the death of a way of life. By real people and real children. I trade forex , I follow more news and read more from outside the country than I do inside the US.What I see is a practice experiment for what this country will be seeing soon. Trade your stupid stocks, trade your govt manipulated markets. But try to show a little empathy for the greek people as a whole..the majority of them are scared and had nothing to do with all this bullshit they are being forced to endure.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 09:07 | 2150580 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Can we just get this straight once and for all:

Irregardless is not a word. It's regardless.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:31 | 2150082 booboo
booboo's picture

"It's beautiful"

that's what that stripper said in the movie Independence Day right before the big space ship vaporized her sweet ass.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:37 | 2150095 booboo
booboo's picture

"It's beautiful"

that's what that stripper said in the movie Independence Day right before the big space ship vaporized her sweet ass.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:14 | 2150137 hairball48
hairball48's picture

"the majority of them are scared and had nothing to do with all this bullshit they are being forced to endure."

 

The same could be said for the "sheeple" here in the good old USA.

The Greek people got the government they deserved...and so have we Americans gotten the shitty government we deserve. And our turn to pay the price for our inattention to government is coming, and coming soon.

I hear hurricanes a blowing.
I know the end is coming soon.
I fear rivers over flowing.
I hear the voice of rage and ruin.

 

from CCR's  Bad Moon Rising CCR

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 10:06 | 2150622 trilliontroll
trilliontroll's picture

HISTORIC SPEECHES

THEODORE ROOSEVELT
The New Nationalism
August 31, 1910

"

...

Of that generation of men to whom we owe so much, the man to whom we owe most is, of course, Lincoln. Part of our debt to him is because he forecast our present struggle and saw the way out. He said:

"I hold that while man exists it is his duty to improve not only his own condition, but to assist in ameliorating mankind."

And again:

"Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration."

If that remark was original with me, I should be even more strongly denounced as a Communist agitator than I shall be anyhow. It is Lincoln's. I am only quoting it; and that is one side; that is the side the capitalist should hear. Now, let the working man hear his side.

"Capital has its rights, which are as worthy of protection as any other rights.... Nor should this lead to a war upon the owners of property. Property is the fruit of labor; . . . property is desirable; is a positive good in the world."

And then comes a thoroughly Lincolnlike sentence:

"Let not him who is houseless pull down the house of another, but let him work diligently and build one for himself, thus by example assuring that his own shall be safe from violence when built."

... "

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:18 | 2150141 chindit13
chindit13's picture

As Yogi Berra says, when you come to a fork in the road, take it.

European banks (and US banks) are at this fork.  One side is credit risk.  The other is funding risk.

If they take on more credit risk, they might add to the already unmanageable (without government assistance) levels of bad debt that now threaten their capital base.  If they take on more funding risk, that is, adding new low-yielding long term assets in a ZIRP world, they risk mismatches as they try to continue funding these assets in a world of rising rates (at some points rates might rise again).  Take one path, they die.  Take the other path, they die.

Might as well just stick the fork in this one.  It's done.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:19 | 2150142 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Solution : fuck the banks. Send them all into bankruptcy. See who's still alive after you put everything on their balance sheets and mark-everything-to-market.

The failed banks go under. All those who ran them are banned forever to work for any bank/government/financial institution. All the failed banks are investigated for fraud.

All the people who did business with those banks have their loans renegociated if not outright forgiven since most of them (80%+) are frauds.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:59 | 2150185 ekm
ekm's picture

So be it.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 04:44 | 2150470 Olympia
Olympia's picture

Loan sharks knew that if they took the dollars printing machines under their control they could suffocate the world ...they could initially suffocate USA and after taking the USA from the Americans, they could move and suffocate the whole world and take the countries from their people.

FED printed cheap money and loansharking multiplied this money in an unnatural way within the American economy boarders and they discarded them abroad so that they did not threaten USA. USA became the first state in the world with artificial “breathing”...

It cannot be possible but just in the USA for only the last year, more than one million houses were seized. It cannot be impossible but the New World has returned to tents and shelters ..has returned to the ages of Columbus. It cannot be possible that we allow to a few loan sharks looting the toils and the assets of people...

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html

------------------------

Global Debt Crisis

Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:21 | 2150146 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

This thought piece goes way out on a limb.

Bank deposit runs can negatively effect insolvent banks!  Wow!

 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:59 | 2150275 knukles
knukles's picture

WHAT!?!?!?!?!?!

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:18 | 2150312 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

There is such a thing as insolvent banks?

Next thing you know, they'll be telling me the unicorn tied up in the back yard doesn't actually shit skittles!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:22 | 2150148 Moon Pie
Moon Pie's picture

enuf said:

.....

The palace of mirrors
Where dog soldiers are reflected,
The endless road and the wailing of chimes,
The empty rooms where her memory is protected,
Where the angels' voices whisper to the souls of previous times.

She wakes him up
Forty-eight hours later, the sun is breaking
Near broken chains, mountain laurel and rolling rocks.
She's begging to know what measures he now will be taken.
He's pulling her down and she's clutching on to his long golden locks.

Gentleman, he said,
I don't need your organization, I've shined your shoes,
I've moved your mountains and marked your cards
But Eden is burning, either brace yourself for elimination
Or else your hearts must have the courage for the changing of the guards.

Peace will come
With tranquility and splendor on the wheels of fire
But will bring us no reward when her false idols fall
And cruel death surrenders with its pale ghost retreating
Between the King and the Queen of Swords.

- Bob Dylan

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:34 | 2150162 The4thStooge
The4thStooge's picture

<!-- @page { margin: 0.79in } P { margin-bottom: 0.08in } -->

There's no earthly way of knowing,

Which direction we are going.

There's no knowing where we're rowing,

Or which way the river's flowing.

Is it raining? Is it snowing?

Is a hurricane a blowing?

-Willy Wonka

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:48 | 2150172 slewie the pi-rat
Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:01 | 2150188 Moon Pie
Moon Pie's picture

Good Shiznatz, STP-R.

Danke.  Hadn't chanced that ditty in awhile.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:54 | 2150268 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

<+danke2danko&mrZ+>

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:56 | 2150181 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Too many stupid assholes. What else is new?

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:00 | 2150187 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Look, we're living in a freekin' utopia. And it's recovering too. Faster than expected. 

 

So stop complaining and resume the position. The only change is from now on you buy your own lube. 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:08 | 2150201 ekm
ekm's picture

This is what's going to happen. March 20 or not March 20.

As soon as Greece is close to PERCEIVED CHAOS (define chaos any way you want), they will default and who ever holds greek bonds will die.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:09 | 2150203 ekm
ekm's picture

Clue: PERCEIVED CHAOS

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:10 | 2150206 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Buy Greece on any Dips. Ooooops. I shouldn't have said that. 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:17 | 2150209 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The Euro flaw is actually it's stength: the implied threat of metastasis is mighty powerful and can win friends and influence people. Especially people with printing presses. 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:22 | 2150213 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

Fiction is the coin of the realm! Think about it.

The US $ is sound,

An American football player is an "Athlete", on par with a Rugby player or Soccer player ? (a REFEREE in a world class soccer game covers 20 miles, running, on average, during a game).No other game on Earth has the players wearing helmets and body armour, how many of those guys would last 5 minutes without the armour?(Excluding of course Ice Hockey and Jousting).An American football player works half the game as he is Offence or Defence, spends half his time chit- chatting and fondling and spends the rest of the game taking orders from "Coach", a fat chomo who never made it as a football player but talks a good line of bullshit.

The Police "Serve and Protect, under OATH, to protect our rights, never giving thought to Local Revenue or padding their Retirement accounts, and they are patriotic Christian types".

The District Attorney is Out for Justice?

Your Attorney or Public Defender is looking out for your best interest?

Your Financial Advisor, Stock Broker, Trust Fund Manager, 401k, Hedge Fund manager, Priest, Rabbi, Butcher or Auto-Tech are looking out for your best interest? Rarely.

(Enter "The King has no clothes" analogy here).

The Hooker wants you to come hard, your wife loves you and your kids think you are awesome?

FIAT CULTURE, the spawn of Fiat Money.

And the biggest money makers around are Video Games,Movies, T.V.Elections, and your Congress/Senate Actor who is looking out for YOU? by sending jobs to China?

FIAT MONEY IS FIAT CULTURE. A Lie, bull, a ghost, an illusion.

 

 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:24 | 2150220 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

a soccer/football referee would be on average between 5 to 10 kms a match.  20 miles in 90 minutes would be on pace to run a world record for the marathon :)

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:55 | 2150271 ekm
ekm's picture

Are you from Europe?

Soccer and finance are my addictions by finance has taken primacy recently, seeing what's happening.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:29 | 2150331 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

originally from the other side of the mersey river, now a Canadian.  I still play local 1st division, if it wasn't for football I would lose my mind.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:37 | 2150341 ekm
ekm's picture

I had to look up Mersey River. It seems like you're English, only integrated but never assimilated.

I am in Toronto. Time difference kills me. Though, I see mostly Seria A.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 02:22 | 2150385 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

my dad lived in Milan so I check in on Internazionale Milan results, but Liverpool FC is my team.  I thought for sure you'd be olimpiakos

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 14:31 | 2151069 ekm
ekm's picture

I grew up in Albania following Juve of Platini. Die hard Juve ever since. 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:57 | 2150274 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

I expect that you are right, I got the numbers many moons ago (Pre- Internet)

Does this detract from my point? We are drowning in Horse shit.

The Military is protecting us from Foreign enemies?

Department of Homeland Security is feeling up your Grandmother for rocket launchers.

The DOJ seeks Justice? Thieves will be apprehended on Wall Street not just Wall-Mart?

Scyooooooz me!

We are living in a Pool of Lies where NO Man knows if he is coming or going, I will only say that Karl Marx did not know about the internet, the Mayans, the cycle of 5200 years that repeats in the geological record, a doomed character, the jig is up, watch the Sun, you have Google.

 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:33 | 2150334 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

no issues with your point, but this was soccer so I had to speak up and it was meant in good fun

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 02:03 | 2150362 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

American footballl can not be played without the pads or else it would be rugby.  A RB (running back) getting tackled is the equivelent to someone getting hit by a car moving 20 mph.  A RB carries the ball 20 times per game.  Try getting hit 20 times w/o wearing pads.

If you don't know the sport, don't talk about it.  And people who talk trash on football players for wearing pads do not understand the sport.  So you guys need to shutup and find a meme that fits your agenda.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 02:30 | 2150389 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

NFL players a very tough yes no arguements from me.  I prefer NCAA football though for the emotion, but I have a family and a small business so I don't watch a lot any more due to competing interests. ND in the Big House, Bama at Death Valley or SC up in Autzen are great sporting spectacles

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 04:10 | 2150454 prains
prains's picture

The point is padded football is a stupid sport and other collision sports easily exceed 20 sustained hits per game without pads. The sport you refer to is in fact easy to understand as the players get to stand around for half the playing time and talk about it. Everybody gets the picture.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 04:13 | 2150455 prains
prains's picture

Not a relevant meme I agree, but NFL is the epitome of what blows in American culture. Roids, Ra Ra, and look at me.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 04:42 | 2150468 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Good thing not many people watch hockey.

It's almost as addicting as curling, but a hell of a lot better workout than most sports.  And hurts a lot more, too.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:00 | 2150278 ekm
ekm's picture

US$ is not completely fiat. It's not backed by gold or silver, but it's backed by.....STEEL.

It's backed by submarines, military ships, B92S, F18 etc. In exchange for the US$ to be a world currency, the US is the only policeman in the world. Somebody has to pay for this and the NATO allies and other allies DO PAY by not spending in military but by buying US protection vis buying US Treasuries.

Expand your knowledge, people, finance is not just about money. Think deeper.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 10:29 | 2150650 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

The laws of institutions expanded:

The schools make you dumb

The church makes you evil

The bank makes you poor

The hospital makes you sick

The government makes you unsafe

Etc etc etcetera

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:28 | 2150224 chindit13
chindit13's picture

In theory, all banks can delever at the same time.  In theory, when rates eventually rise, all long term assets yielding 3% can be funded with positive margin via hedging.  In theory everyone can hedge his equity portfolio by the "insurance" of short S&P futures.

All these theories require is another side to the trade.  Where are we going to find that?

Oh, I forgot!  These are economic theories, espoused by people with PhDs in Economics, and symbol-ridden formulas to go along with them (perhaps if they paid a licensing fee to the owners of all these thetas and psis and sigmas we wouldn't be having this crisis?).......so.....

First:  assume infinite liquidity.  I guess this is where central banks make economists honest men, by providing said infinite liquidity.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:20 | 2150318 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

Dear Mr Chindit 13,

Does Infinite Liquidity mean the same thing as 'No Product Whatsoever'?

I have been perousing the economical world for some time and can only gather from my experience that 'LIQUIDITY' Fictional or other wise seems to translate into the English Phrase 'Fiction Agreed Upon by 1/10 of 1%.?

If you can explain to me how the production of Nothing can be translated into the foundation of a global economy, i would be in your debt as I have no PHD either.

I mock ye not, Sir,as I believe we think some what alike, but expound on this if ye will, how fiction and promises become hope?

What Man would prefer lies for his living, than truth, or Meat for his childrens plate when false-hood puts ghost fish next to imaginery Cabbage.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:46 | 2150349 chindit13
chindit13's picture

I wouldn't say no product whatsoever.  I would say it's a product of the imagination, a very fertile imagination at that.

I suspect you are well aware I was mocking economists, whose theories always rest on assumptions that simple do not exist in the real world.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 02:11 | 2150373 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

Thank you, Mr Chindit 13, I knew we would agree that a Dollar or Pound or Euro is agreed upon fiction, my original point being that Fiction is the coin of the Realm, Therefore Fiction is the Currency? I can not see how it would not work if we all agree, Fiction, the Global $, one $ gets you a pound of rice in Paris or Calcut (ta).

Fiction is the product now, or war will be? It would work for a little while, (Little) being the key word.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 10:34 | 2150655 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Convention is the coin of the Realm, Custom it's King and Judge.
Though they change and shift...This creates the feeling of fiction.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:32 | 2150227 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Now I know why I didn't read the other posts.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:42 | 2150244 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

why is that then?

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 02:53 | 2150402 Kevlar Akubra
Kevlar Akubra's picture

There's a lady who knows, all that glitters is gold

And she's buying a stairway to heaven

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 03:11 | 2150411 Peter K
Peter K's picture

While on the subject of flawws.....

 

But, but, but.... the reason that the European bankers are getting bailed out is because they lent money to the European sovereigns. And the European sovereigns spent all the money operating the European socialist welfare state. And when the European sovereigns maxed out on their borrowing, their politicians created the Euro so that those same sovereigns could borrow more money and at cheaper rates because the Germans would guarentee the whole lot (implicit co-signatories). And now, we find out that the Germans woun't gurentee the whole lot, and that Euroland is more broke than it was before the Euro was created.

And who is to bame for this mess? Why, the bankers of course. W inning T he F uture !

So why not burn the bankers at the stake instead of bailing them out?

Well, because if the bankers were burned at the stake, the politicians would not have anyone who would lend them money.

It's just that simple.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 03:18 | 2150420 newengland
newengland's picture

The Greek military command was fired some months ago. Prescient of the politicians serving banksters to get rid of the real Opposition?

Silly them. That command structure is now free on the streets, well able to organise the amateurs.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 04:41 | 2150467 Olympia
Olympia's picture

Germans are proved to be the easy solution to breach Europe’s door. Whoever wishes to “set foot” on Europe and demolish it, the only thing he has to do is to “fool” the Germans. For a second time in less than fifty years, Europe’s idiots become the victims of foreigners and they serve their interests at the expense of Europe …it is for the second time that they take money from foreigners and they turn against their European “brothers” under their lenders’ orders …it is for the second time that the family’s fool takes “candies” from the “#r” of the neighbourhood in exchange to get him into the “bedroom” where the younger “siblings” sleep …In the “bedroom” which is common today due to the European Union...

Germany handed all the European countries over to the Jewish loan sharks, by naively believing that this way they would let Germany free. Germany put the European family at the “target” of the “markets” and it is collecting profits every time one of its members gets “executed”. The loan sharks who pretend to be the “hunters” are shooting safely in the European “hen house” because Germany has managed to “raise walls around” Europe. One after the other, Europeans are destroyed so that Merkel can pay the stupid and artificial German debts to the loan sharks. 

As in all previous instances, once again its “fairy tale” is extremely misleading. Nazi Germany who used to destroy Europe in the name of the Greek ideals, does the same thing today. The surrendered, corrupting, competitive after receiving subsidies and extremely anti-European Germany pretends to be the unrivalled European power that fights for the European unity and against the corruption. This country that took advantage of the unification to serve its national interests, requires from the other countries to sell themselves out in the name of this unification. This country that even today keeps corrupting anyone around it, it threatens the corrupted ones. It “vomited” over a whole continent and now it is looking for the “spot” on its victims to punish them.

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/germany-disgrace-of-europe.htm...
-----------------

Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 08:37 | 2150567 fiddy pence haf...
fiddy pence haff pound's picture

Hey, Olympia, chill out.

It's as if the only thing that the powerful want is to control

big, powerful stupid countries for them to do their bidding.

It's all a big chess game.

The problem I have is that Germany seems to be enjoying

Greece's suffering and calling them lazy on top of it.

That's the stuff of racist hatred. THAT sells newspapers, but

people should really be learning from one another, instead of stirring

hatred, because they're coming to get all of us.

The worst thing is that Germans don't seem to understand they're

being manipulated by their government, at least not the ones who write on ZH.

The banks are taking over the world. No other way to see this stuff.

The Brussels pencil-necks are just their 'Swiss guard.'

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 08:31 | 2150563 fiddy pence haf...
fiddy pence haff pound's picture

to newengland:

the Greek army is f*cking hopeless, I assure you. Even with all the arms

that France and Germany are forcing on Greece, they're hopeless. If the

US hadn't been behind the junta of 67-74, they wouldn't have left their barracks.

if they had, they would've lost their way looking for Athens.

The police are starting to make noises about occupiers and stuff. That may be something

to watch.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 03:20 | 2150421 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

The flaw is that, even in 2012, we retain respect for markets. Unfettered, they are not the tool of choice for resolving the current situation but we see it as essential to work with them and harness their power, rather than against them, as we discussed in Twelve  Steps.

**************

The market is exactly what we need resolve the current crises-

The market and only the market knows how to resolve the current crises because it is always right-it is never wrong and it never loses-ever-

Random and irrational in the eyes of those who cannot or refuse listen to its constant telegraphing-of its intentions--to us-

The market is our friend and it knows exactly what to do-

We all stand in its awesome shadow-quibbling with our irrelevant emotions-always somewhere between greed and fear-

The market was here and looked at this little blip in time 10,000 years ago and discounted everything and today it is 10,000 years ahead of us-doing what it always does-"pricing" the future-

 

 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 03:31 | 2150433 newengland
newengland's picture

jimmy,

I wish it was still true, but it's not. The 'market' has been corrupted, and true price discovery is no longer possible in real time, due to the manipulation by governments, and the central bank cartel; their lawyers, their mark to model fraud et cetera.

See MFGlobal for how to steal with impunity. Where is Jon Corzine these days? Still hunting for his castle hideaway in France?

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 03:42 | 2150442 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

I wish it was still true, but it's not. The 'market' has been corrupted, and true price discovery is no longer possible in real time, due to the manipulation by governments

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Today you're right but in the end-the market will blow away anyone or anything that stands in its path-

To believe that a backroom full of greedy grey faced old men can contol this beast forever is a fatal error-

The market has not ever and will not ever be denied-

 

 

 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 12:12 | 2150832 falak pema
falak pema's picture

so the market is GOD... who understands all and doesn't give a shit about the human predicament and our subjective collective needs. And you would have us kneeling to this perfect deity, replacing older deity, and say to it : we believe in your new universal law, Oh, lord of universe. All knowing, all forseeing and totally rational.

Something tells me I've been here before. Something tells me that like before, there are invisible hands behind the curtain, in the shade of the DIKTAT, anonymous and unknown but all the more potent, doing what the Pharoahs and Popes did of old.

Only difference they have learnt the lessons of Machiavelli, they stay unseen behind the scenes, and all cry "the end justifies the means!"

Play on invisible markets!

We will have subjectively initiated and "humanly impulsed", not HFt algo triggered, markets the day we have democracy applied to finance; and all Oligarchy play, dominant position action and planning,  totally banished in everyday acts by regulation and transparent ongoing surveillance. Now that is Utopia with humans of our current mind set. 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 12:34 | 2150875 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Play on invisible markets!

We will have subjectively initiated and "humanly impulsed", not HFt algo triggered, markets the day we have democracy applied to finance; and all Oligarchy play, dominant position action and planning,  totally banished in everyday acts by regulation and transparent ongoing surveillance. Now that is Utopia with humans of our current mind set.

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Haha--what a juvenile understanding of the market you have-

Don't associate the "tiny" stock markets and the few elite bankers of the world with what i said-they are only one almost irrelevant piece of the puzzle-

You need to do some study of human behaviour and the secrets of mass psychology-

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