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As Europe Goes (Deep In Recession), So Does Half The World's Trade

Tyler Durden's picture


Following the Fed's somewhat downbeat perspective on growth, confidence in investors' minds that the US can decouple has been temporarily jilted back to reality. It is of course no surprise and as the World Bank points out half of the world's approximately $15 trillion trade in goods and services involves Europe. So the next time some talking head uses the word decoupling (ignoring 8.5 sigma Dallas Fed prints for the statistical folly that they are), perhaps pointing them to the facts of explicit (US-Europe) and implicit (Europe-Asia-US) trade flow impact of a deepening European recession/depression will reign in their exuberance.


From The World Bank: Golden Growth

An increasingly vigorous flow of goods, services, and finance over the last five decades has fueled European growth. Europe’s economies are the most open in the world. Before the global crisis of 2008–09, half of the world’s approximately $15 trillion trade in goods and services involved Europe (figure 2). Two-thirds of it was among the 45 countries discussed in this report. Financial flows have been equally vigorous. In 2007, for example, annual FDI in Europe exceeded $1 trillion. Big and growing trade and financial links facilitated by the single market form the core of the European convergence machine.


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Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:57 | 2109681 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

BDI at 702... is there a problem, Captain?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:58 | 2109686 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Different day, same shit.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:02 | 2109707 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Same shit, different day

About three million different ways

It's hard to love you and it's difficult to say

And how do you expect for me to let you come and stay

With that agenda?!

-The Pharcyde - Agenda

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:15 | 2109766 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture




The rise and fall, the last great empire

The sound of the whole world caught on fire

The ruthless struggle, the desperate gamble

The game that left the whole world in shambles


Grandmaster Flash.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:23 | 2109793 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Funny how it will be the great MCs that got the last wise word in for music....

KRS-ONE interview with ALex Jones:

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:12 | 2110038 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Nothing like conversing with the 85 IQ crowd.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:30 | 2110106 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Nothing like conversing with the holier than thou crowd.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 17:12 | 2110885 TheGameIsRigged
TheGameIsRigged's picture

Nothing like being out of touch with the reality of the world....and your small place in it.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:17 | 2110062 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

You're not kiddin. Here's more

The cheats, the lies, the alibis
And the foolish attempt to conquer the skies
Lost in space, and what is it worth, huh?
The president just forgot about Earth
Spending multi billions, and maybe even trillions
The cost of weapons ran into zillions
There’s gold in the street, and diamonds under feet
And the children in Africa don’t even eat

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:43 | 2110345 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

"Old business" ozzii

Thanks for your comment on NTN vs. INA yesterday, how NTN is moppin' 'em up in N America re needle bearings.

I know more about the PERUVIAN than ours here...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 15:24 | 2110460 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

No probs man. NTN make a great bearing. Excellent seals (700 kPa peak), top rated grease (-55 to 155 deg C) and very cost effective. I've literally used 10's of millions of them and never a problem. I've also had a lot of experience with INA but recently a Diesel application in Europe started to see some major problems. Can't say any more. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:11 | 2110253 nyse
nyse's picture

People hate The Pharcyde around here, huh?  

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:14 | 2109760 mattu13048
mattu13048's picture

Armada Markets predicted that EURUSD will reach 1.0000 this year and probably lower as eurozone will collapse and cease to exist. Game over.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:17 | 2109769 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

they're wrong - the Bernank won't give up that easily!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:40 | 2109853 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

nice repeating of the current dogma from Armada Markets - only hilarious that you mention this in a post where the global trade of goods (as in goodies, like physical gold for the bugs) and services is shown in such an euro-centric view.

what shall I say? EURUSD at 1.0000 would solve a lot of problems - for the eurozone. which has all in all a debt to GDP ratio of 85%, a small trade surplus (including oil imports), a relatively small and declining budget deficit and a mixed economy with (gasp) some industrial base.

autarchy might be in the books for the US in some distant future, but the eurozone trades nevertheless - has to

a "collapse"? how? Greece breaking out? Germany breaking out? it never ceases to amaze me how much misunderstanding a currency union causes for people who are outside it... nobody wants out, even Iceland (yes, of banking fame - you would expect them to be a bit sceptical, eh?) is talking about getting in.

EURUSD has the component of USD in it, the IOUs that every central bank of the world (except the FED) has on it's asset side - in great quantities. think about it. we are not yet at the stage where the news word cloud is dominated by "FX reserves".

nah, 1.000 might come, but I expect 1.425 in a few months, first. good to be hedged either way, though.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:35 | 2110126 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The "Euro" is the beta project for the NWO (in terms of the ultimate goal of a one world currency)... Whatever happens, they won't let it die that easy (especially in the context of a prominent political election cycle year combined with a numerological "mystical" year like 2012)...

If the Euro IS going to die, they need a Plan B... I have serious doubts as to whether there is a Plan B formulated yet...

Therefore... I highly doubt the "collapse" will happen just yet... 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:49 | 2110359 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

They've always got a Plan B, as it is timeless.

Break more shit to increase dependence.

As for Plan A, it's timeless as well.

Lie, cheat and steal.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:59 | 2109690 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

With China?  No!

You know, it's just that their real estate collapsed 40% last week, and while that was happening, gold buying soared an equal amount.  Nothing to worry about over there, where they hide the data like all other fascist states.  Move along....

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:07 | 2109729 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You mean building empty cities won't lead to economic prosperity?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:07 | 2109734 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It might if the Japanese ever realize they are being radiated to death and should leave their island Nation stat.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:17 | 2109771 moskov
moskov's picture

Don't know why you always compare Japan with China?

Japan is a island state. That's all.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:25 | 2109803 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Huh what?  Japan is being radiated and if I was in that area I would leave pronto.  I am surprised they stay.  Maybe they will figure it out when they all have cancer.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:33 | 2109841 moskov
moskov's picture

The funny part is that it was the US government muted the International backlash on Japanese government's handling on Fukushima. And they are still leaking radioactive water into the International Sea and IAEA is simply raising the alert bar in oder to calm the public from the hidden truth which is getting worse day by day.

So much hypocrisies going on from your socalled International Community

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:41 | 2109892 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The international community will remain silent as long as the cash flow keeps coming their way.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:18 | 2110269 fourchan
fourchan's picture

china is fucked x 1,300,000,000

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:44 | 2110348 sushi
sushi's picture

The international community will remain silent until they finsih turning Iran's mountains into glass. Then they will suddenly "discover" the perilious amounts of radiation being put out by Fukushima and loudly call for Nippon to stop polluting the planet. And then the news will be over and the latest re-run of Survivor will start and nobody will pay never mind. Pass the dip.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:23 | 2109795 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Those city's sure will help when the people start revolting. Once you promise a bunch of poor people free places to live the love of state comes roaring back!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:01 | 2109702 redpill
redpill's picture

"Fifteen degrees down plane."

"Fifteen degrees down, aye!"

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:10 | 2109742 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

And yet tomorrow is election day so the PPT will be out in force this afternoon and tonight. Don't short anything until after tomorrow morning's early sucker rally ends around 10AM.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:11 | 2109747 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

"You arrogant ass. You've killed us !"

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:21 | 2109787 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

"Bernake acted stupidly"

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:40 | 2109887 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Shome things here don't react well to bazookas.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:37 | 2110134 redpill
redpill's picture

Central Bankers don't take a dump, son, without a plan

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:31 | 2110316 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

LOL....that's brilliant !!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:56 | 2109962 midtowng
midtowng's picture

It's OK. I'm sure our world leaders would tell us if something was wrong. </snark>

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:57 | 2109683 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Europe is balls deep in depression, bitchez!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:09 | 2109737 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Bad analogy.....

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:28 | 2109819 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Fine.  Depression is balls deep in Europe.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:19 | 2110070 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

What I was gettin' at is, typically when one is balls deep, a guy is pretty far from being depressed....

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:32 | 2110115 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Thus why I switched the analogy.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:01 | 2109692 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

We need to talk...'s about your 'growth' problems.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:08 | 2109698 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

In a fiat world eCONomy built on infinite growth with finite resources there is only one outcome that is dependable, when goods and services stop crossing boarders, troops will.  Same as it ever was.  Junk away morons.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:48 | 2110358 Matt
Matt's picture


Soon time to go long AAC, Raytheon, Haliburton.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:01 | 2109701 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

OT : That cocksucker Santorum is saying that medical malpractices lawsuits should be capped at $250k...what a corporate shill.

Yeah I'm sure if let's say you have a tumor in your left leg and your doctor comes drunk and he ends up cutting your right leg, you'll do just fine with $250k right?

Or if your doctor fucks up and your kid end up brain damaged, I'm sure $250k will be enough uh?

Santorum is total scum, protecting his corporate friends like a good little whore.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:04 | 2109716 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

STFU moron.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:20 | 2109781 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

You are just jealous of my bunny ears.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:05 | 2109719 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Actually he is right.  Compensatory damages should not be capped but punative damages should as the malpractice insurance covers it and that cost is passed on to us.  Either that or take malpractice off the table for punative but then doctors wouldnt work at all.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:05 | 2109723 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Oh yeah, and STFU Moron.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:10 | 2109744 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

No worries, I have a gut feeling that moving forward any potential malpractice or personal injury cases are going to start being "settled out of court" the old fashion way.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:05 | 2109722 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Yeah, who's looking out for the lawyers?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:12 | 2109749 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah because all the doctors in the world are drunk. I know plenty of fine physicians who are leaving the business because they can't afford the malpractice insurance, and the have never been sued.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:22 | 2109788 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And? Shouldn't prevent victims from being paid when they get screwed.

Blame malpractice insurers, not victims.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:24 | 2109794 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

It *is* all about money, after all.


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:38 | 2109870 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

When the "victims" er... lawyers... sue the insurance companies for punative damages in the hundreds of millions of dollars ,then that affects all physicians. By the way I don't see you complaining because the scum sucking lawyers take the majoirty of the payout.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:58 | 2109975 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Good on'ya.

Let's make the top penality for malpractice suits the permanent revocation of a physician's license with no monetary compensation to the victim. I'm sure lawyers would support that.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:04 | 2109999 Putty
Putty's picture

Well, the world needs ditch diggers, too

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:25 | 2109804 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

Lolmao: spoken like a true lawyer..seems the pols never limit what lawyers can earn on medical cases..wonder why when they can cut fees to MD's by 40% see cardiologists and medicare.

save the children (i mean the lawyers)

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:59 | 2109979 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Lawyers should get paid for their service, but the victim should get most of the money.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:38 | 2109873 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I don't expect the legal system to 'fix' all of life's woes for me. On a long enough time line I know my survival rate is zero. In your your examples I went to the doctor with cancer in my leg or with a kid in bad enough shape that I was willing to let them cut into his/her head for God's sake, a negative outcomes was a always a possibility. Yes I would be pissed if life happened and an incompetent flawed human made my existence worse, but I went to school with a lot of pre-meds, I would not be surprised. My apologies to all you ethical hard working doctors out there but as a group you are a mix of flawed humans.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 22:37 | 2111621 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture


     The Bill of No Rights -- Courtesy of Lewis W. Napper

We, the sensible of the United States, in an attempt to help everyone get along, restore some semblance of justice, avoid any more riots, keep our nation safe, promote positive behavior and secure the blessings of debt-free liberty to ourselves and our great-great-great grandchildren, hereby try one more time to ordain and establish some common sense guidelines for the terminally whiny, guilt-ridden delusional, and other liberal, commie, pinko bed-wetters.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that a whole lot of people were confused by the Bill of Rights and are so dim that they require a Bill of No Rights.



You do not have the right to be free from harm. If you stick a screwdriver in your eye, learn to be more careful, do not expect the tool manufacturer to make you and all of your relatives independently wealthy.


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:59 | 2110214 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Which one of them isn't a corporate shill.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:01 | 2109705 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Decoupling, I love it, what a joke. If history teaches us anything, you know when Euro blows apart, BAC will be in the middle of it somehow. Those guys are the gang who can not shoot straight. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:06 | 2109726 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Those with the most derivative exposure will be.  Who would that be again....let's see....oh, JPM!  Ironic how Jaime has been talkin' 'em down so much lately.  Not like AIG's CEO before they collapsed, or Bear, or Lehman, and on and on. 

Lady Gaga would eat these guys for lunch....

P-p-p poker face p-p poker face

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:20 | 2109783 battle axe
battle axe's picture

And they are perfectly hedged...BAWHAAAAAA HAAAAAA. Can Jamie say "BOOM"...But again I will say BAC will take it up the ASS somehow and/or CITI Corp. Those two Companies always shoot themselves in the foot. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:04 | 2109712 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Look at the width of the flow from the middle east to Asia and you see clearly how moving off of the dollar for the oil trade is THE war game going on.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:06 | 2109728 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:07 | 2109733 edmondantes
edmondantes's picture

do you mean "rein in their exuberance"


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:09 | 2109738 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture
Robert Shiller: A Housing Bottom? What Are They Thinking?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:19 | 2109777 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

And now the ECB is taking on more debt than ever with LTRO, they are gonna have to hire America's professional number fudgers in the quarters to come to spin that one nice for the zombies

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:20 | 2109782 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Baltic Dry index?

What does the mustard seed skittles and unicorns crowd say about that being down 66% in the past year?

I know, volatility and "historically at normal levels".

Where have I heard that before?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:22 | 2109789 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Decoupling will be the ebb tide exposing all those hidden derivative shoals....since we are all discussing the BDI, a maritime analogy appeared to be in line....


We have no idea where the derivative mines are buried nor how many, nor how big....but I'd bet we are soon to find out.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:23 | 2109796 forexer
forexer's picture

Currency Wars...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:23 | 2109797 Screwball
Screwball's picture

Europe closed

Hal 9000 on

The 10:30-11:00 meltup begins.  This prick will be green by 4.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:24 | 2109802 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

yup groundhog day again.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:43 | 2109901 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

no doubt

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:24 | 2109801 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Don't worry by the looks of the Nasdq decoupling is alive and well. #booyah.

Must be the postive rumors coming from "sources" on the PORTUGAL PSI deal. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:27 | 2109815 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Pitch down divergent...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:38 | 2109871 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Capital Controls followed by Import Controls and Russian entry into the EEA should provide Europe with a sustainable fortress

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:42 | 2109899 taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

Which raises the obvious question:


Why is so much of Apple's growth coming from the European market? Do Europeans not realize that they're broke?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:47 | 2109915 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

BLODGET: A lot of people have just called the bottom in the housing market in the United States, and there's been some okay data recently. Is that your take? That finally housing prices are bottoming?

SHILLER: When people phrase is that way, they say 'we've reached the bottom.' That suggests that we have the expectation of a major turning point right now. But I don't see that.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:54 | 2109952 michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

The weakness in the Baltic Dry Index appears to be strongly coupled to the problems in the world economy.  Today's ZH article on the BDI is indicative of a correlation.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:02 | 2109980 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

at times that these I'm reminded of a passage from Matt Brook's World War Z, in it is an interview with a former Fed big shot talking about how, despite all the facts, data and information available, despite the fact that our closest ally, Israel, announced to the world they were instating a nation wide voluntary quarantine and closing of their boarders, despite the the fake vaccines that the FDA knew wouldn't be effective, despite the deployment of alpha teams to contain early outbreaks in the US that were quickly becoming overwhelmed, despite all of it, they still couldn't take the actions necessary to stop the cotangent from nearly wiping out the entire country.

about how they all could read the writing on the wall, they knew what it was and what was coming next, they even had plan, worked out by the brightest and best to keep America free of large scale infection, they just couldn't execute it, the problem, the cotangent had grown to large to quickly and the opportunity to contain the situation had went by the boards. the reason being is because people in power were disbelieving such a thing could happen, or they looked to capitalize on it, or hide it or somehow twist it to their own benefit or simply did not want to be inconvenienced by it. reality bias played a major role, in their own delusional little world there could not possibly exist anything that could disrupt their lives to that magnitude, therefore there was no need for anything to be done beyond an politically convenient, proportional response. of course by the time it became evident something more was needed, it was already to late.

I see that exact thing happening in the EU and Washington DC now, here in the real world, everybody sees the writing on the wall, everybody knows the rapidly approaching light at the end of the tunnel is not friendly. there are plans being floated at least once a month to deal with the debt contagion, we hear a lot about fence wringing and decoupling. yet we also see the inept, greedy, self interested squabbling, the clashing ideals and interests, the lack of any coherent action to head off the impending disaster. super congress failed, that's ok, just raise the debt limit another trillion, an entire nations debt turned to junk, that's ok too just have a CB buy up their bonds. wall street looking to have a bad day, send in the plunge protection team. none of it meant to seriously deal with the monster that is at the door and staring us right in the face.

to bad more of our public servants didn't take the time to read WWZ, you can learn a lot from a zombie apocalypse.          

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:07 | 2110240 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

WWZ, the movie is coming out soon. I think Brad Pitt has the lead and it does not follow the book much. Brooks sold the studio the rights and washed his hands of it.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:09 | 2110249 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Eurozone has no Nuke count worth talking about,  has no hegemony but has economic reality; it needs a hard knock to wake up and assume own destiny; outside pax americana. Let the FED carry its own dead weight, if the US banks want to play financial war all round. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 15:06 | 2110399 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

no one could have seen this coming...

...who could have known? 


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 15:09 | 2110408 mraptor
mraptor's picture

Did you guys notice also that Europe has the biggest trade with its own region ..

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 16:10 | 2110547 onebir
onebir's picture

Double post. Oops.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 16:02 | 2110598 onebir
onebir's picture

Trade generally gets counted as trade where it crosses national borders. So regions with smaller countries (eg Europe) can appear to have disproportionately large amounts of trade.

There are also reporting/statistical biases. In Europe national customs agencies needed to set up systems to record cross-border trade as a side-effect of tax collection. Even though duties on EU-internal trade were dropped years back, I think the systems to record it were more or less preserved. I don't think there are (many?) taxes on internal trade in the US (&/ other geographically/economically large countries like China, India, Japan etc). So the systems for capturing it are likely much less well developed.

So comparing how important intraregional trade is in different regions is... tricky.

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