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Is Europe The Grinch That Stole Thanksgiving?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In case you were wracking your brain for the last time it seemed so dismal in the equity markets during such a thankful and rejoiceful week, well its at least 10 years ago! This week's displeasing  equity move is the worst of the last 10 years - beating 2008 to the downside which managed a late recovery. 2002 had the best performance and just in case someone tries to sell you on the recovery this week, the average performance from 11/18 to 11/24 over the past 10 years has been a rather lackluster -0.2% - admittedly better than the -3.8% the S&P is currently looking at.

The last ten years are dominated by 2008's massive volatility and 2002's suprious outperformance. But on average (as seen below) we were in sync until Tuesday when the wheels started to fall off thanks to our European colleagues - Thanks Europeans!

Perhaps it is an appropriate time to give thanks in our own sardonic manner to those most to blame for where we are.

Perhaps - Happy Thanksgiving ECB?

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:23 | 1908119 pmcgoohan
pmcgoohan's picture

How about some word on this eurobond rumour

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:03 | 1908313 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I have to admit I’m quite disengaged with the equity markets. I’ve been trying to catch falling knives to no abide, especially in the retail and financial sectors on which I am very bullish long-term. It’s times like these that separate the seasoned professionals from the common investor. This is a test of courage, integrity and faith in the greatness of America. I will continue to buy, because I just KNOW that I will be rewarded in the long run for my perseverance and loyalty to the Obama revolution.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:03 | 1908319 spankthebernank
spankthebernank's picture

Fuck...another perfectly good screen ruined!!!!!!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:15 | 1908375 fuu
fuu's picture

You should call imsaul0968, he'll set you up.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:21 | 1908407 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Gobble-gobble. Happy Turkey Day to all!

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 05:34 | 1910073 ThatThatcher
ThatThatcher's picture

Maybe wait until we've formed a bottom..........because it's going to get a whole lot worse

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:46 | 1908247 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Eurobond has been re-branded to stability bond.

And last i checked the German Consitutional Court said NO WAY.

So rumors abound. But the inital step would require most of the 17 Countries involved to hold referendums to aprove the Treaty changes necessary to move this process to step 1.

Then at some point a year of eighteen months from now the German Consitutional Court would have their say.

Don't let facts get in the way of a good rumor.

From the Guardian:

Yanis Varoufakis, professor of Economics at Athens University, says that Barroso's proposals for eurobonds have one flawing flaw -- they require "treaty changes that will never come on stream before the eurozone has collapsed".

Varoufakis continues:

They insist on the notion of eurobonds backed by member-states (jointly and severally guaranteed by national treasuries); a notion that is not only in contravention of the Lisbon Treaty but also financially problematic as the interest rates these bonds will incur will be some weighted average of Germany and the periphery (rates, that is, which are too high for Germany and not low enough for periphery)

 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:49 | 1908256 Chuck Bone
Chuck Bone's picture

The Eurobond is 10 sizes too small.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:03 | 1908317 pmcgoohan
pmcgoohan's picture

Thanks guys. I was too late though. Got whipsawed out and didnt get back in short before the EOD collapse. Shouldve stuck to my guns after being short for so long.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:08 | 1908338 e-man
e-man's picture

Wow, looks like the markets slid into second face first.  Friday opening should be interesting.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 21:37 | 1909109 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

It was just a rumor nothing more to stop the onslaught.  Germany won't even back this, because these bonds have to be backed by a percentage or full amount of real money and who is going to put this money out there.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:37 | 1909353 covert
covert's picture

europe is doomed.

http://expose2.wordpress.com

 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:23 | 1908123 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Federal Reserve, bitchez!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:23 | 1908124 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

I think it's pronounced "Gingrinch".

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:28 | 1908149 magpie
magpie's picture

sounds so 1996.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:31 | 1908175 jomama
Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:53 | 1908214 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Yeah, that was before the "Reagan revolution is over", pro amnesty, only on his 2nd wife, do something about global warming, in favor of healthcare mandate Newt.  I liked him then.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:29 | 1908125 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

Charlie don't surf and Euro don't do capitalism and they don't do Thanksgiving.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:24 | 1908133 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Sorry, I caused this.  Went long yesterday.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:25 | 1908134 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

I give thanks to the idiocy and hubris displayed by the financial system and all their cronies as they will soon enough drown in their own mess with no one left to bail anyone out and we finally bring these asshole overlords to justice.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:29 | 1908152 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Thanks Europe! I have been almost 100% in shorts on financials and the euro. Cashing out now. Thanks.

Oh, and that late day rumor about eurobonds... LMAO.. WEAK. I don't even cover on rumors like this anymore. Pathetic.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:29 | 1908160 Curtis LeMay
Curtis LeMay's picture

 

 

Europeans turn to US junk bonds to renew loans

FT

November 23, 2011 7:27 pm

Banks in Europe are turning to the US junk bond market, loan investors and so-called “mezzanine” fund providers to offload European bridge loans before the end of the year, but may still be forced to swallow losses on several high-profile deals.

One London-based leveraged loan fund manager said: “There has been a lot of progress on the bridge loan overhang, but this will still be a bonus destroyer for a lot of people, and perhaps a career shortener for some.”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2cd89dc8-15e7-11e1-8db8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1eYucsnG9

They must be fucking desperate. Clearly, the well has run dry in euroland...

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:06 | 1908331 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

Ben has done a "good" job. 

Soon, all the EU will use American dollars for their currency.  All that political posturing a few years ago about the EU becoming the big boy in the world and setting the course of global politics is going up in smoke.  The great EU navigators are headed for the rocks.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:30 | 1908164 DutchR
DutchR's picture

No thanksgiving in Europe, sorry...

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:30 | 1908165 jomama
jomama's picture

the Gingrich that stole Christmas?

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:31 | 1908170 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

BofA hits new low 5.11. uh oh. but hey, they go ex-dividend 11/30. other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the show?

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:32 | 1908180 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Looks like fresh spam right out of the can  & chicken of the sea with all the fixings!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:34 | 1908191 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

*OT BUT IMPORTANT*

PMI just filed for bankruptcy protection, one the largest private mortgage insurers.

This matters because many institutions can't hold mortgages without the (largely theoretical) protection of mortgage insurance.

More carnage in MBS securities.  Happy Turkey Day!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:39 | 1908209 youngman
youngman's picture

There are going to be alot of New York Boys on their computers tomorrow and they won´t be watching the Macy´s Day Parade....they will be watching and trading Europe.....its goiing to be two exciting days when the big guy is not playing the game...or Reffing the game...breaking up the fights...

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:44 | 1908237 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Perfect day to hint at QE3 or have the ECB buy a ton of bonds.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:43 | 1908234 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

And in related good news...  The Civil War Redux is on like donkey kong....

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/illinois-republican-wants-chicago-are...

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:45 | 1908242 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Oh, but there is still Friday!  With nobody around there could be a nice short covering rally.

 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:54 | 1908274 CORNGUY
CORNGUY's picture

With trade desks everywhere operating with skeleton crews..........yea, we could get a good sized move on black Friday.   

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:54 | 1908272 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

speaking of bidless closes...

both sides of the pond? 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:17 | 1908378 fuu
fuu's picture

The remaining money is thankful it still exists and took off early. The only good long is a weekend.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 16:55 | 1908280 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

I'm thankful for leveraged ETF's; TVIX, TZA, SQQQ and SDS.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:00 | 1908305 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

That was an epic close.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:02 | 1908316 Odin
Odin's picture

Yeah seriously, felt like whiping it out and masterbating when it blew past -200...

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:00 | 1908308 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Not a Grinch that stole Thanksgiving, but they'll probably steal Xmas.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:04 | 1908323 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Newt GingGRINCH

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:04 | 1908325 danielvisionvic...
danielvisionvictory@yahoo.com's picture

Tyler, If you have time check this one out.
Energy Shock: How Peak Oil Will Change Your Life http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5wSHSvIMro 13 minute micro doc, without a doubt my best one ever.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:05 | 1908326 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Brutal last 15 minutes for the DJIA:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#symbol=^dji;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

I guess vacuum tubes don't feel good about things before the holiday tomorrow...

 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:06 | 1908329 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Wall Street get 4 times more money than the U.S. Military.. The U.S. Military is running how many wars? But Wall Street get 4 TIMES MORE TAX DOLLARS!

WAKE UP!

Poor People.. Social Security.. Un-Employment Benefits..

If you take ALL! the social services of America.. and add them up.. it equals 7% - 8%.. in this economy.. so 3% - 5% in a strong economy.. of GDP.. We in America.. Regardless of what the Tax Rate is supposed to be.. can NOT! collect over 8% in taxes??

The Tax Loop Holes??

Never mind, You dumb fucking sheep dont want to know the truth! you want to re-enforce your own ignorance.. now go google something until you find someone who agrees with your ignorance.. dont pick up a calculator and figure out this shit for yourself.

 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:09 | 1908337 Note to self
Note to self's picture

Oh Fuck - you sound like my wife's cousin at the Xgiving dinner table.  Have another glass of wine . . . . 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:24 | 1908408 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

You wife's cousin doesnt have silver ealges for scalps.. I do.

I dont have all 315,000 yet.. but I am saving up.. and with the coming crash in the markets (due to contagion) I plan on picking up some more silver eagles at a discount! YIPPIE!

 

The Top 0.1% Of The Nation Earn Half Of All Capital Gains

By Robert Lenzner | Forbes – 10 hrs ago

 

Capital gains are the key ingredient of income disparity in the US-- and the force behind the winner takes all mantra of our economic system. If you want  even out earning power in the U.S, you have to raise the 15% capital gains tax.

Income and wealth disparities  become even more  absurd  if we look at the top 0.1% of the nation's earners-- rather than the more common 1%. The top 0.1%--  about 315,000 individuals out of 315 million--  are making about half of all capital gains on the sale of shares or property after 1 year; and these capital gains make up 60% of the income made by the Forbes 400.

It's crystal clear that the Bush  tax reduction on capital gains and dividend income in 2003 was the cutting edge policy that has created the immense increase in  net worth of corporate executives, Wall St. professionals  and other entrepreneurs.

The reduction in the tax  from 20% to 15%  continued the step-by-step tradition  of cutting this tax to create more wealth.  It had first been reduced from 35% in 1978 at a time of stock market and economic stagnation  to 28% .  Again 1981, at the start of the Reagan era, it was reduced again  to 20%-- raised back to 28% in 1987, on the eve of the October 19 232% crash in the market. In 1997 Clinton agreed to reduce it back to 20%, which move was an inducement for the explosion of hedge funds and private equity firms-- the most "rapidly rising cohort within the top 1 per cent."

Make no mistake; the battle that is to be fought over  the coming attempt to reverse this reduction in capital gains  will be bloody and intense. The facts are clear according to the Congressional Budget Office  more than 80%  of the increase in income inequality was the result of an increase in the share of household income from capital gains. In fact, you can go so far as to claim that "Capital Gains income is the most unevenly distributed-- and volatile-- source of household  income," according to Laura D'Andrea Tyson,  University of California  business professor and former chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Clinton.

No wonder the super wealthy plutocrats  obtained the largest share of national income-- 25% of the nation's wealth- greater than any other  industrial nation in the  the period of 1979 to 2005. Make no mistake; after unemployment-- this disparity between the 1%-- 3 million-- or the 0.1%-- the 300,000-- and the other  312 million citizens of the U.S. has become the major theme of the Occupy Wall Street movement-- and an important national debate.

I commend you to the late Justice Louis Brandeis warning to the nation that " We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the  hands of a few, but we can't have both." We have to make up our minds to restore a higher, fairer  capital gains tax to the wealthiest investor class-- or ultimately face increased social unrest.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/top-0-1-nation-earn-half-capital-gains-172647859.html

 

 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:37 | 1908339 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Yep, we all covered our Shorts for the Holiday weekend.  Looks like there was no resistance to the downside.

Tried to buy today for the end of day ramp.  Did not work.  But at least I got out even.  Will Try again on Friday with low volume.  At least with cashing out every day the money in my account is mine and not at risk in the Market.

Well, live to play another day.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:11 | 1908344 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Well it sure stole Harrisburg, PA's thanksgiving as a federal judge called their bankruptcy illegal.

In today's ponzi world, especially with no Glass-Steagall, you cannot default, nor declare bankruptcy.   Not for students getting a worthless ponzi monetary education either.

The fraudulent debt must be paid, and reality must be suspended in order to do it.

Happy Thanksgiving, even to the imploding, fascist eurotechnocrats.  Our ancestors left that shitshow to build something better, but then we decided to import your shitshow monetarism like a cheap chinese good.  

Glass-Steagall

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:27 | 1908433 Kali
Kali's picture

Ha!  What a joke!   Can't squeeze blood from a stone!  Got a flyer abouta meeting of local small biz people.  Planning to put up a united front to not pay our taxes.  Figuring even if we get socked with fees, threatened with jail and have to eventually give in, we are not just gonna let them take it from us without a fight.  I was surprised when I found out about it, I was thinking of doing it myself anyway. Hmmmm.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:13 | 1908363 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Uploaded by on Nov 23, 2011

Alarms over the Euro's future are sounding in the heart of Europe. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso warned the single currency could collapse unless governments are more economically integrated. Eurocrats are currently pitted against Germany, as Chancellor Angela Merkel has once again rejected the idea of collective borrowing for the region.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0MD2NnlSiI&feature=g-all&context=G14e58ALTs1X7wARAA

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 17:17 | 1908380 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Nice close today!!! 

Likely there will be a nice rumor or two, and most stocks oversold so primed for a bounce.  The next leg down could be really really interesting.....still, we can always bomb the hell out of some Arabs for a distraction (God bless our freedom bombs).  If I were China I would be getting really upset about the obvious grab for middle east oil reserves.  Is it a good idea to abuse your largest creditor?

China must be looking at the world and wondering if maintaining the status quo is really worth it any more.  And if you can't keep your people and factories busy exporting then the obvious solution is a scramble to lock in critical raw materials and a military build up.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 19:51 | 1908885 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Germany wants the EU members to have a good Tanksgiving. You must pay up you Eurozone losers or ve are going to be sending in our Tanks.

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 04:14 | 1909979 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

USD selling pressure continues and the prospect of an equity xmas rally and EURUSD bullish spike returns.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!