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Europe Has Its Parti Quebecois Moment

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Europe Has Its Parti Quebecois Moment

I have said and written that I expect to see more nationalism come into play as the crisis continues.  I may have been a bit early, but we are seeing growing signs of it, with Marine le Pen’s strong showing in yesterday’s French election being the most obvious example.  The Dutch Parliament’s failure to approve “austerity” is another sign of growing skepticism of a one size fits all Euro solution.

In Canada, the Parti Quebecois always did better in tough economic times.  When times are good, people like to hang out, talk about vacations, what they bought, which was the best Habs team of all time, and why the current version of Les Canadiens is underachieving.  In tough times, people are eager to hear why the problems are someone else’s fault.  Good times are always a direct result of one’s own actions; whereas, bad times tend to be blamed on someone or something else.  Now they can talk a bit about how things would be better if those someone’s or something’s would change, before moving on to the best Habs player of all time, and what the current team should change to be like the old teams.

Away from the election results, more economic data came out of Europe, and it is all bad.  PMI missed.  Spain is clearly in a recession.  Bank stocks are getting hammered.  The S&P futures are sitting just above 1,360.  We tested the 1,358 level last week and had a strong bounce.  The week before saw one sell-off get as low as 1,355 before bouncing.  I think the combination of weak data, strange votes, and the realization that the firewall has no immediate impact will weigh on the market and we will break through and trade below 1,350 before we see another round of support.

AAPL is definitely a wildcard.  It is the cheapest it has been in 40 days.  Yes, that is the problem.  The sell-off has been dramatic, but after a parabolic move higher, we are only back to prices last seen on March 14th.  It was at $455 on February 1st.  I will be watching this closely as it is so big in the indices that it could be the catalyst for a bounce, or the trigger for a bigger sell-off towards the 100 day moving average.

CDS indices are weak across the board.  In Europe, MAIN is at 148.5, 5 wider on the day, and bid/offer spread is increasing as liquidity evaporates again.  IG18 is relatively strong, only 2 bps wider at 102, but with fair value being at least 105, there is some room for this index to move wider.  I think Europe was just scared to push futures below that 1,360 support, and if we break that this morning, IG can quickly move to 104 bid.  If HYG or JNK opens anywhere within a ¼ or possibly a ½ point of Friday’s close, it is a good sale, as they are overbought, trading at a premium to NAV, and this latest round of weakness in Europe will put pressure on all the credit markets.

French bond yields are actually a little better on the day (somewhat surprising to me given the election results, but I guess they still capture some “flight to quality” bid, but they are not as strong as German bunds.  Italian and Spanish 10 year bonds are both weak, hitting yields of 5.71% (+6 bps) and 5.96% (+3 bps) respectively. They have bounced off the lows, but I think we will see a capitulation move lower with Italy getting to 6.25% and Spain to 6.5% before any serious ECB intervention occurs.

Buy the dip has worked well, almost too well, so I am not going to do that.  I believe we break this support level and see one more significant

 

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Mon, 04/23/2012 - 07:46 | 2366254 Arthor Bearing
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Go black and gold!

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 07:53 | 2366265 maxmad
maxmad's picture

or silver!

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:01 | 2366274 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I've got all that sfuff but............WTF!

 

.......when did this become an issue?

 

The Dutch Parliament’s failure to approve “austerity”

 

Don't the Dutch have tulips?

 

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:04 | 2366280 Sudden Debt
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Don't the Dutch have tulips?

and fried meatballs.... and that's about their entire economy...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:14 | 2366315 battle axe
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Also didn't the dutch have a little problem with tulips a few hundred years ago? Perhaps history repeats itself on a grander scale...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:18 | 2366326 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Also didn't the dutch have a little problem with tulips....

 

Yeah....but they totally fixed it.....just like Euroland has.

 

 

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:15 | 2366320 oogs66
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that's better than belgium with waffles, chocolates, and the center of the "eu government"...fried meatballs will be here long after the "eu government is gone"

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 07:54 | 2366262 q99x2
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All these Obama ads gives me the feeling I'm looking down the double barrels of a terrorist's shotgun. Kind of spooky.

That blue and red symbol looks NWO. Notice that it is not an American flag. Maybe it is Indonesian.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 07:55 | 2366266 EcoFlow
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10 years ago LePen reached the second round. This time it did not happened. Surely not an example of rising nationalism in France at least. And when we put it into the context of the current crisis, this is rather not a so big score.

 

And this also let about 80% of voters in favour of the EU and the euro.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:15 | 2366316 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

True dat.

It's because Sarkozy is dividing the right wing vote...  Without Sarkozy, LePen would be with the most votes.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:02 | 2366276 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

What?

- Iran announces blockade of Strait of Hormuz and claims U.S. is complying

http://www.worldnewstribune.com/2012/04/22/iran-announces-blockade-of-st...

- Israel ready to strike Iran, Lebanon, Gaza if ordered, says military chief

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/04/22/209486.html

- Iran Takes Preparatory Measures to Defend Islands in Persian Gulf

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8101300781

- US Carrier George HW Bush just deployed into the Atlantic.

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/navy_legacy_hr.asp?id=146

- George Zimmerman was released around midnight Sunday from a county jail on $150,000 bail as he awaits his second-degree murder trial for fatally shooting Trayvon Martin

- Feds eye retirement-fund tax to cut $16 trillion-plus deficit

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/plunder_CrD9s6MElVsEIJj2IVgHuK#ixz...

- Senate-Passed Bill Would Mandate Black Boxes in Cars, Plus More

http://thenewamerican.com/usnews/congress/11574-senate-passed-bill-would...

- N. Korea Threatens South with Special Military Action

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/N-Korea-Threatens-South-with-Sp...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:23 | 2366332 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Nothing in the news about Jon Corzine?

 

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:04 | 2366278 Global Hunter
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le troisieme etoile...dah turd star

numero vingt-six...number twenty six

Mats Naslund 

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:08 | 2366285 bank guy in Brussels
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The Québec independence movement vote in the 1990s was only 1% off of approving separation from Canada - and many Québécois at the time felt that the vote was manipulated and rigged by the dominant Anglos who are more than 70% of Canada.

However, in the end it was more that the demands and desires of the Quebeckers for autonomy and their rights were mostly fulfilled, and the memories of getting run over and dominated by the Anglos fading, that since 2000 have quieted the impulses of separatism, in favour of accepting a place within Canada as a multi-lingual, dual-culture nation.

The great René Lévesque and his Parti Québécois did peacefully achieve great things for a region that had been unfairly treated for a long time before ... people don't remember so much now, that in the 1960s there were actually murders and kidnappings in Canada, and an airline hijacking to Cuba, associated with radical groups back then like the Front de Libération du Québec.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:10 | 2366291 lolmao500
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The Québec independence movement vote in the 1990s was only 1% off of approving separation from Canada - and many Québécois at the time felt that the vote was manipulated and rigged by the dominant Anglos who are more than 70% of Canada.

It was. They pulled every trick in the book. Illegal immigrants voting, calling people so they go vote at the wrong place, spent much more than allowed in campaign laws... etc... The elite didn't want Quebec to break up Canada.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:15 | 2366323 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Quebec would never survive alone as an independant sovereign. How do filthy sovereigntists not understand this? Do they think they can get by on their production of poutine alone?

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:42 | 2366363 lolmao500
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Money isn't everything in the world dude...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 09:52 | 2366555 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Indeed, and yet ironic that Qc seems to be the FIRST province always asking the rest of Canada for extra subsidies and tax-breaks, not to mention the social security "culture" of many proud proud (unemployed) quebekers. 

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 16:41 | 2368331 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Yeah, the resolutions were always:

would you like to have an independent Quebec

and not

Would you be willing to separate from canada, give up billions of subsidies and assume a chunk of the national debt that was used to fund project in quebec?

it might never have gotten so close if reality was at play

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:57 | 2366390 SoNH80
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The historical context of the separatist movement was a sense of being dominated, and suffocated, by the British Empire and Montreal Anglo-Saxon business elites that looked down their noses at the majority culture/language/ethnic group of Quebec in the 19th-early 20th century.  Starting with the founding of Hydro Quebec in the 1940s, the Francophones have taken more control over their own affairs, and now are at a point where they view Canadian federalism pragmatically ($$$-- Alberta, etc.).  That could change in the future... but memories of 17 constipated Mac-whoevers running the province like a feudal fief are fading....

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 09:16 | 2366440 sgmsg
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That's why since more 200 years, Brits are pumping cash from Quebec to develop rest of Canada.

You are a Britt or a dumb ass French

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 09:30 | 2366483 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

WAT

Are you seriously implying Qc is paying for other CAD provinces?

LEAST INFORMED RESPONSE EVER. I have nothing more to say to you, i am neither a quebeker seperatist nor British, but i can tell you must be an inbred sonofabitch.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 09:43 | 2366496 sgmsg
sgmsg's picture

Lol

Thanks Brits to subsidize Quebec to stay in Canada.

Obviously, you never open an history book. Did you ever open anyelse book?

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 09:50 | 2366550 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

I have no idea what you're trying to convey as your english is grade-school (that means ecole maternelle, you pepper) worthy so im afraid it's quite impossible to have a discussion with you. Here, this should help you on your progression to high-school level english: http://translate.google.com/

 

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 09:56 | 2366569 sgmsg
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Vous êtes fluent dans les deux langues...

Mdr

J'y crois pas, je parle à un vrai Elvis Gratton.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 09:37 | 2366497 sgmsg
sgmsg's picture

Does youre name is Elvis Gratton ?

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 09:46 | 2366423 sgmsg
sgmsg's picture

Encore en plein déni de la réalité.

Faire l'indépendance sans 80-90% des francophones est d'une stupidité sans nom. Est-ce que votre idole est Parizeau? Le dictateur et sa cage à homard. Le quérulent qui a sacrifié la carrièrre politique de sa femme pour ne pas faire face à sa lacheté d'avoir d'abord monté Bouchard, lui avoir donné le total contrôle du référendum à un fédéraliste qui travaille maintenant pour Desmarais via les gaz de schiste, et finalement lui avoir cédé le pouvoir à la tête du Québec.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:11 | 2366299 Ted Baker
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SP500 AT 800 BY YEAR END WITH BANKS AND APPLE THE WORST PERFORMERS....

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:12 | 2366305 Crash N. Burn
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 Ah the petty Quebecers party, dumber than a box of rocks, with almost as much character. Bigotry gone mainstream. Right now the little dimwits are more concerned with the language players, coaches, and the GM speaks than whether they have any talent (or can win):

 

Language Flap Damages Canadiens Brand
Mon, 04/23/2012 - 08:14 | 2366309 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yeah right now, retards are running it...

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 09:17 | 2366451 oddjob
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Its OK to be a racist and a bigot when you are French, everybody already expects that.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 10:23 | 2366685 lolmao500
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Now who's a bigot and a racist?

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 10:38 | 2366763 oddjob
oddjob's picture

si la chaussure s'adapte.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 14:12 | 2367728 JOYFUL
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Lafleur&Orr...

Giants lived amongst us, not all so long ago.

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