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Europe Opening A Little Shaky - And No ECB To The Rescue Yet With BTPs
With EURUSD trading back to overnight lows at 1.3740 (100pips off its overnight highs), BTPs just opened 8bps wider to Bunds at +465bps. Gold is clinging to $1770 as Silver, Oil, and Copper drop notably thanks to USD strength. S&P futures are 16pts off overnight highs now having retraced almost 75% of friday's late swing higher. US TSY yields are compressing but relatively parallel for now and in line with Bunds. With Goldman and SocGen now calling for an EU recession in the next 2 quarters and Goldman suggesting short XOver credit, the situation is rapidly spiraling.
5Y to 10Y BTPs are all in the 6.4-6.5% yield now as 30Y BTPs just broke 7%. We would expect JEF to suffer more on Monday morning as the ITA 2s10s curve flattened 18bps so far this more and from their exposures, they are positioned for a curve steepener - ouch! No ECB buying yet either!!
Credit markets are not happy either with XOver +25bps, Main +5bps, SENFIN +11bps, and SovX +9bps
After initially trading very rich to broad risk assets (CONTEXT), it is clear that ES is starting to gather pace and lead risk-off (this can be tracked here in real-time - delayed 30mins for non-subscribers).
FX markets are also starting to get active and CHF is losing ground rapidly against the USD. Gold continues to hold up as the rest of the commodities and PM complex loses ground.
As we post all these trends are extending and ES is dropping notably.
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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Good mornin' Tylers! You're up and about early.
I'm really starting to enjoy monday mornings' volatility. Fun day ahead of us.
Forget Greece. Spitaly, bitchez!
Already out of date. ES just magically erased all losses in 20 minutes.
bots trading lower USD
as far as I can tell this is the only explanation of the melt-up on otherwise fairly dismal news
following the deflated, but still bouncing ball.
a little shaky?
Buyer's remorse.
Hi Tyler, how works this Context Model???
On Bloomberg right now, the Dax reads -100%/0. Surely that's an error...but a foreboding one.
Nice DBK GY short this morning :-)))
looks like the death wobble of the last three months is finally nearing its breakdown. daily 20+ point swings means you're heading for a crash, regardless of the current direction of the wobble.
They're all hedged, what crash? ;)
I better get some rest, don't want to oversleep and miss the Rule 48 tomorrow.
Danish Krone is pegged to the euro and before 1999 it was pegged to the D-Mark.Just in case...
Merkel, Sarkozy Have Lost Credibility
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020455420457702222236775604...
*GREEK TWO-YEAR NOTE YIELDS CLIMB TO EURO-ERA RECORD 107.32%
*GREEK TWO-YEAR NOTE YIELD ADVANCES 935 BASIS POINTS TO 107.32%
And this is interesting...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/06/greek-eurozone-exit-drachma-comeback
No ECB yet? There is sweet FA the ecb can do about this. Come on i come to Zero Hedge to get the the partial truth at least, not the same euro propaganda as one gets at the FT from that wank Joseph Coterill.
Seems quite ominous but I have no idea what this means. Translation anyone?
Per Joe Brown: ECB buying Italian & Spanish Debt in the 10 years via the Securities Market Program (SMP)
DOOM...
Berlusconi to resign. Good. Lets put a Fed friendly ex-central banker in every political post in Europe. Then sit back and watch bond yields continue to explode as the perma-dim markets finally cotton on that it makes no difference who is in power when you are presiding over inevitable systemic collapse.
Shuffling the persons inthe deck chairs on the Euro-Titanic seems to buy momentary relief so that's why it is being done. The politicians who are willing to do the banks bidding and avoid writedowns will replace those who do not do the banks bidding.
An excellent write-up with good points, We have been a lurker right here for quite a while but hope to become much more engaged in the future.
new ford / new peugeot
FDIC loan loss sharing details are a total taxpayer ripoff to big money types and billionaires like Soros, Dell, GS execs. Look up OneWest Bank started by those guys. FDIC sold them a portfolio at up to 50% discount and the FDIC backs up to 90% of losses, not based on what OneWest paid, but the ORIGINAL amount of loans. OneWest makes more money not working out any loans and letting them foreclose and cashing in from the FDIC.
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