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European Bank Run Full Frontal
Update: due to popular request, the definition of EAP5 is as follows: "EAP5 are Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland", less politically correctly known as the PIIGS. See here.
This chart from Credit Suisse cuts through all the propaganda BS like a hot knife through butter.
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Priced in.
I wonder what the Europeans are going to do with the money they withdraw?
Looks like the US tax payer is going to have to foot the bill to hammer down the price of gold and silver!
The problem with hammering down things that really are money is that anyone can store them indefinately in their closet. That is pretty much why they are money and not commodities like TV noobs try to tell you. It is really hard to shake someone out of something they can self store at zero cost until Hell freezes over.
Unless you do it with the threat of large fines and prison time (ie at the end of a gun) - like FDR.
That actually didn't work when they tried it. It was a pretty well documented failure from what I have read.
I think FDR pilfered the large, publicly known private hoards of PMs.
Quite a few gold coins remained in private hands, widely distributed. They have been passed down through the generations, right up to the present day.
No one was successfully charged with gold possession under FDR. Once case was brought against a prominent, flagrant, in-your-face holder (held at a bank, no less) but that case did not result in confiscation. Lots of idiots turned in gold, though.
a breakdown of that chart separating the 5 would be really helpful
Quinvarius hit the nail on the head (again):
1. I can't be shaken out of a position I intend to hold until retirement, and I am not about to retire tomorrow.
2. More importantly, interest rates are zero, and real inflation is running at 7%+, so there's no opportunity penalty for holding gold and silver right now
3. Gold and silver are outperforming everything else.
4. PMs have no counterparty risk.
So hammer away Boyz.
People used to believe that about Free Speech and Guns. It's amazing how much can be taking away by political edict...
Precious metals aren't money, but neither are central bank notes. Money is a contract for the exchange of capital. As such, money is an abstract like equity. Precious metals serve as the physical representation of money contracts, and they can be very good ones because they are hard to counterfeit, and their limited supply provides a natural check (a pricing mechanisms) that require people to contemplate if the contract they are about to engage in is really worth it or not. This is one of the pros of precious metals as the physical representation of money contracts, it puts a natural check on gov from taxation via inflation. Of course the con is that an economy can grow faster than the production of precious metals, thus the natural impediment of a limited supply could hamper the growth of an economy by hampering the number of money contracts. This is one of the reasons money should be private. When it is, then innovation would occur to allow the physical representations of money contracts to expand concomitantly with capital creation as money grows. In other words the only way for money to be infinite is when it is private.
slow ahead, mr hoopah
they put it back inthe ECB in most cases, corporates have been directly banking with the ECB since 2011 august and earlier for the bigger ones
amit
check out the crisis at http://advantages.us a daily summary answers for the Euro without the clutter of conflicting data and reports..
http://advantages.us/?s=European+Banks+Debt+Crisis
European logic to be deployed:
Flip the chart over...problem solved.
I need a reference; according to the World Bank, the EAP5 countries are: Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam,
and the Philippines.
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEASTASIAPACIFIC/Resources/226262-1...
That lower line needs some Cialis™ to counteract the effects of Defaulta™
Its just half-time in the soccer game that is the EU.
Which is actually like, two-thirds time. Goddammit can't they do anything straight?!?!!
"a deal is near" is the rumor.......
Good one. In the event that wasn't /sarc, I have a question. How does one price in a global financial collapse precipitated by bank runs in the Pigs? If it were priced in, gold and silver would be 12-20 times higher in price already.
Management of Perception Economics prevents any of this from being priced in. It's a teetering house of cards ignored by sheep raised on normalcy bias.
Vaporized
And...poof......it's gone!
not gone, just people getting ready to buy Facebook stock!
This chart reminds me when in the Godfather Michael sees his first wife for the first time. Full frontal!
Except this chart ain't an Italian beaut.
eh, more greek than italian
That's what my bank account looks like too...but mines because of my wife.
And if you've been married longer than 2 or 3 years, it's also what your sex life looks like...............
you mean "sex life with your wife".
Great Sanford & Son banter...
Donna (about to marry Fred): Grady, isn't ti about time you got remarried?
Grady: What!!! And give up sex again?
Thats supposed to be everyones bank account because the used the cash to buy Gold and Silver that they keep at home.
[Oprah voice] You get an upvote, you get an upvote, everybody gets an upvote!!!!
Is she Greek?
LOL!! That was funny no matter who you are rofl
priced in + moved from periphery to the core
run, burn, collapse....
There will be a day when reality catches up!
Today would be OK.
I just said yesterday that if I had to deal in Euros...
Tired of pre-game...
micro fractional reserve banking...
You must not be pre-gaming hard enough. Try bourbon next time.
Of all the thousands upon thousands of words printed on ZH about the EU, this one simple chart frightens me the most.
Don't be frightened...Lary Fink of Blackrock just said we should be 100% "all-in with equities".
No joke...you can't make this shit up.
Did he say whether those equities should be triple leveraged inverse ETFs or not?
How about reverse "triple LINDY'ed"?
Watch out for the "Santorum" when doing the" Triple Lindy".
Paradox of thrift meets liquidity trap. Not really a problem since it's only digital fiat money.
Mario "Havenstein" Draghi will handout free bits & bytes for the PFIIGS.
Paradox implies a logically flawed statement where the outcome is contradictaroy. It is often seen when the underlying system or understanding is in error.
"Paradox of thrift" is not a paradox, merely an indication of the flaws of an underlying monetary system reliant on FRB.
I think it is the best bit of propoganda the banksters have ever put out!!!!!
I think the reason we don't have severe inflation in the western countries yet is that too much money gets piled up at the 1%. As Hugh Hendry said more or less, we shouldn't worry about inflation as there won't be wage growth taking place in the foreseeable future. In the long run I think we will have severe inflation, but for the moment it's contained, in parts because of the paradox of thrift.
As Ferguson describes in "When money dies", during Weimar hyperinflation there were constant shortages of money everywhere which led the Reichsbank to print more and more without solving the underlying problems, making everything worse in the long run. But in the short run, banks, institutions, municipalities, local governements, businessmen, they all were short on money. I think that's exactly what we are about to experience.
Read that book again. It's very good. But you didn't see the author explaining how inflation can be subdued by the 1% getting richer. That's utterly rediculous. Your are letting your hatred for those who are more successful than yourself get in the way.
I don't feel hatred for anyone. I just try to make sense of the bizarro world we live in, how come M2 goes straight up for a while yet there's no severe inflation (so far).
The idea that the money gets locked at the 1% is the best explanation so far.
The money does not spread through the economy evenly. We saw housing inflation, food, oil, gold/silver. The inflation is all around you. It's just not evenly distributed. Wages always lag price increases when too much money is created. You can be absolutely certain wages will get their turn.
Money does not get "trapped". The 1% have far less dollars as a percentage of net worth. They are smart enough not to hold cash. Cash is for the middle class. Real assets and stock ownership is where the wealthy park their wealth.
Act like the wealthy and you will become one of them. It worked for me. :)
There is some sort of contradiction in your post, how can we not be worried about inflation!
Do you know when the rich is FUCKED? When there is a recession and everything is de-leveraged. If you have little cash, you can buy shit loads of thing's for pennies.. You might lose your job, so as many people, but the economy re-set's and poise it self back for growth.
the average person is fucked when there is inflation, It's the trap that the rich prepare to fuck the average Joe!
Rich people do not have cash?
Middle class US citizen speaking, for sure.
Littleenglander,
I can't believe nobody gave you a green for that little gem. Re: "Paradox of Thrift" LE's meaning was something like this:
The paradox is only a paradox to self deluded fools who refuse to admit they are wrong. When something threatens a belief system like Keynesian Economics, it gets labelled a paradox by the temple priests.
From the periphery to the mattress. Fixed it.
FBI will call people owning matresses, terrorists.
http://www.infowars.com/fbi-paying-cash-for-a-cup-of-coffee-a-potential-indicator-of-terrorist-activity/
"When Sealys are banned, only criminals will own Sealys."
When Gold is banned, only criminals will own Gold.
We are sliding into a world where everyone wants more rules, more controls, and failure to abide slips you into a category of individuals that are criminals. It is so easy to accidentally fall prey to the tightening noose of "indicators". I'm certain that posting on ZH has us all flagged at this stage. Our rights are being stripped away, along with our ability to earn a living.
If you mow your lawn, and find a car, you might be a terrorist.
If you often borrow a 'chaw' of tobacco from your wife, you might be a terrorist.
If you let your twelve-year-old daughter smoke at the dinner table in front of her kids, you might be a terrorist.
i think you mean slewie's kids, there L0L
pass the bisquits, please
this string is about "priced in", which is great here
at zH, we've been getting this tyleresque elegance since that divergence began; L0L!!! how could people not undertand this? even magazines cover this stuff!
stuff like this is why tyler is of the opinion that "the die is cast" for a lehman-like scenario, rosie, in the EU. is there a rescue angel? maybe not exactly, but is the SNB the "lender of last resort" for the EU and has it already done a matterhorn of "re-financing" thru devaluation and support?
now, between the ECB, the SNB and the FUK-ing XYZ, there may be enuf traction and muscle to pull the whole fuker outa the ditch
who knows?
but maybe they can also get enough of a grip on it so they can dismantle it in the lightning and and gale-wind squalls enuf to get it the hell out there b/c there's a flash flood a-comin down the mountain and the dam might fail in hooverville, too!
I wonder what the percentages are when comparing people who are shoving wads of cash into their mattresses as opposed to purchasing precious metals?
Good question. The chart shows that the F+G deposits are higher than the decline in EAP5. European PM demand is high, but on the same order as the rest of the world. I'm going to guess not much of either.
Three waves down! Next Is five waves up to new heights?
wildly bullish news for stocks
It's true, I think this is what fuels some of the stock market's illogical euphoria. That's a lot of money and despite the comments about mattresses it needs to be placed somewhere. Long term how much do you trust money to stick around when it was yanked from one place because it didn't seem safe. A bit of a threat and it's yanked again. Pffft!
Move your bank account from a TBTF to a credit union NOW
Bank holidays/runs are a-coming here, and re-hypothecation is a bitch. FDIC is already bankrupt. Can you be without cash or a functioning ATM for a month?
I moved to a credit union years ago, would not consider any bank at all.
Yes. You couldn't?
Why would credit unions be immune to bank runs? They arguably could be more vulnerable.
Good question. I've been wondering the same thing. Why are credit unions any less suceptible to bank runs and/or system-wide financial/banking collapse than any of the TBTF banks?
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that they're probably not 100x leveraged to the gills on sovereign debt and CDSs and run by money-grubbing assholes. For the most part.
^^^this. the customers know they are in a better position there.
On the other hand, they are less geographically diverse so more susceptible to swings in local business cycles. Also, like any other banks, they have most of their assets tied up in mortgages and consumer debt. Plus, not having direct access to the discount window, less likely to be bailed out by the FED. I'm not saying I wouldn't use one to pay the bills but they certainly are not a panacea.
Another question is how much paper they keep on hand. A small credit union may not actually have that much cash in the tills and or in the vault so even a small run could wipe them out. I have a neighbor who is the manager of a credit union and the next time I see him I may ask him what would happen if there was a run on the banks.
I'm good. Have about $60K in cash, mostly $20's buried in various locations
Watchout for termites and soggy soil...and cash sniffing dogs
better check again.
Not until after "they" convert all 401/IRA's to annuities (July 1st?) Can you say "bye-bye"?
BTW, all of my real money is stored in tubes (which fell out of my boat last fishing trip).
Cossack please elaborate on that if you would not mind.
Come on, like all of us he was drunk at the time of the boating trip and can't remember where all that stuff went. It was all euros, though. He's no terrorist PM stacker, I'm sure.
It's crazy. All you dumb bastards around here taking your PMs on fishing trips! What the hell? And then you're surprised when a rogue wave comes and washes it overboard? Shoulda kept it somewhere safe like with a trusted financial institution!
Incredible shame, all that wealth just vaporized...
turning euro's into gold and silver FULL FRONTAL while it's still possible!!
you can thank me for telling you to hold on to your gold later.
Nothing to see here ... move along. Don't buy gold ... <sarcoff>
Vaporized indeed.
Mattress FTW.
Looks like deposits are moving out of Germany+France as well. So where are they going?! Gold and USD?
Gold = Yes
USD = Used as toilet paper rolls
I won't use fiat to wipe my ass. Fiat is too damn dirty.
you fucked me up with that comment
+1
What will it be used for when the value = 0?
i need ANSWER!
It depends on whether the notes are freshly printed or not. Fresh and crisp, it might look nice as wall paper to remind us never to fall for that shit again. Used, well, I might use it to keep the fire burning or poisoning myself.
lol
I will use it as rat's poison! Thank's for sharing Silver
You're welcome my friend. lol You might be able to poison some rats, but I am sure most rats won't eat that shit. We could stack it away and use it 50 years from now to start the next round of the "paper gimmick" or global fiat Ponzi scheme... only the next time we must try to be on the issuing side and make sure it only gets issued to our enemies. In fact, I think when the perpetrators get arrested for this round's shit, they should be forced to live off fiat and nothing but damn fiat.
Just save them for awhile. They'll be collectors items one day. "Come here, Jimmy, let me tell you about the country I used to live in.... It was called the United States. It was a great place until bankers and politicians collaborated to rape and pillage the country until it was dissolved. It was a very sad day. Well, except for watching those responsible pay for their crimes. And unlike what they had done to the country, their punishment was very quick. The speed of gravity, to be precise."
You're right. Zimbabwean Dollars are worth more outside Zimbabwe than inside, provided that the notes have not seen much circulation... and may justice come at the speed of gravity indeed as you indicate my friend.
i was just thinking Zimbo Silver ...
check the latest troll above ..
thank you for understanding rats
we don't ask for much, but fiat? Hahaha!
we're much too intelligent, preferring the funkyCheeseTM ...
...say, yeah!
If you use $100 bills you may end up with a contact high.
Yes, But you use fiat to buy toilet paper instead. Go figure. However, The paper that is used in money does have a tendency to make your ass bleed. Very painful indeed
Are you writing out of experience my friend? :-)
Im just saying. We need money to buy toilet paper. Correct?
Louis,
10 years from now the Cross of ZWD/USD will be 1/30,000
The Zimbo's will occupy NY and the Rest of the US
This is the Reversal of Fortune
take a look here
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/i...
I understand what you're saying my friend. It is indeed true that we're exchanging fiat for toilet paper. I was just curious about the bleeding bit... whether you're writing out of experience or not. :-)
(page 2)
"...
Why, then, did Japan and three of the other summit nations--Britain, France and West Germany--agree to help the United States devalue the dollar at all?
U.S. Pressure
"The U.S. held them up at the barrel of a gun," said Lewis E. Lehrman, head of Citizens for America, a White House-sponsored lobbying group for conservative causes. "They knew that if they didn't accept Baker's plan, Congress was on the verge of approving the most protectionist legislation since Smoot-Hawley," the high-tariff bill passed in 1930 that helped to prolong and deepen the Great Depression.
"
link : http://articles.latimes.com/1986-05-04/news/mn-3687_1_economic-policy/
Bingo.
The Force is strong with this one.
But but but...
No surprises.
What's EAP5?
Good question - I don't know but if I had to guess then EAP5 might be a polite term for PIIGS
Personally I like "Profligate Idiots" better.
Would like to know myself. I would guess, based on the chart, Euro Area Piigs 5 countries: Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland.
Also, what is "6m flow"?
6 month flow.....probably.
Ah, thanks. Seems simple once someone tells me.
100% guaranteed priced in, and any other surprises too. Just incase you try to be funny
How do you make a Bank Run ? Tickle it underneath it's Teller....
The rate of outflow has nearly reached escape velocity and is poised to surpass the inflow peak of 200 billion set in 2007.
Turn chart upside down to see what stocks have done. Bernake: "scoreboard!"
Gawd! We took out a bit of cash 6 months ago; in the sd box and in 'the mattress' it went. But when this thing hits America, Katy-bar-the-door.
Current US equities rally explained. This is the balck swan. Cash first bodies next. A US immigration wave that hasnt been seen in 100 years
I've been told there's a lot of vacant apartments in China...
that chart makes me physically ill
Who could blame people for not wanting to keep their fiat money in the bank.
Next to no interest being paid and they are running the risk of having withdraw limits put in place or having it seized altogether.
It's very much a one sided affair, so screw them,
I figured that one out long ago. The only reasn to have a bank account is to pay the bills and have a credit card for traveling. It makes no sense to park your money there.
So we have reached a consensus gentlemen,
Long safes and mattresses
People taking their money out of the bank are considered 'sovereign', and will be audited.
We can stem the tide of outflows if we're willing to declare anyone that withdraws more then $50 per day a terrorist... easy fix
/sarc or not
Is EAP5 PIIGS or some other group of countries? Im guessing Europe Area Periphery 5 is the acronym?
I pulled my money out and bought myself a new set of goggles and fins, now I go catch me a fish.
... and hopefully teach others to do the same or start a monopoly.
I pulled my money out and bought myself a new juice press and some fruit trees, a shed full of gardening tools and good quality work boots.
Confetti plus physical feels real good here.0 stocks. Market peaks? No idea if it is today, next week or next month. But it will. And I am in port, safe from the ensuing storm. Tired of stocks and all the decoupling crap. Don't believe it. May leave some on the table, but no problem, when the storm hits we are anchored, no matter what.
No volume markets always scare me.
Ben is going to force the money into your hands whether you like it or not. Ponies for everybody dammit.
had to do it-Iron Maiden's "Run to the Hills" revisited
bankster came across the sea
he brought us pain and austerity
he killed our jobs killed our creed
took our money for his own need
we fought him hard, we fought him well
out on wall street we gave him hell
but the feds cracked down, we had to flee
oh will we ever be set free?
running to my local bank branch, blowing off the stop sings
going to close my account before it's to late
bankman says I have to come back after they close
I tell him no I want what's mine
he calls the cops, like a stab in the back
boys in blue with mace, the cowards attack
run from the bank , get your cash out
run from the bank, get your cash out
central bank soldier in blue in the jobless streets
repressing those who speak out
scanning the travelers, groping the children
the only good serfs are tame
selling them austerity and taking their gold
enslaving the young and destroying the old
run from the bank, get your cash out
run to the hills, run for your life.
Great and well said.
I was thinking of this song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySO-gryuO-c
Keep on posting personel works of art,ART IS OUR
STRONGEST DEFENCE AND BEST WEAPON AGAINST
TYRANIE.
MR BANZAI is a great example for all of us.
That was great! I think we can leave Maiden's 666 The Number of the Beast the way it is to suit banksters.
That blue line looks remarkably similar to the line for the employment figure (millions) for the EAP5 - falling off a cliff comes to mind!!
Oh well suck it up and keep in line citizens of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy! You should be grateful Goldman Sachs is here to pillage and plunder your countries. The EURO's good for you remember!
Is "EAP 5" (Euro Area Periphery one assumes) just a euphemism for PIIGS?...or a different group of countries?
Got an American ex-pat friend living in Eastern Europe that hasnt used any bank there (or here) in ten years; cashes his checks (Euros), and literally stuffs his money in tool box under a false bottom and takes out what he needs when he needs it. Considering the cost of living in his country and his rather frugal metropolitan living (aside from drinking and rent), he has managed to put away a pretty tidy stack of fiat in his quest to 'hide out from what's going down in the US'.
For two years I have been trying to pursuade him to hedge his bets at least a little- i.e buy some physical PMs. We chat daily on Greece, Euro debt, NDAA, etc., yet he STILL just SITS on his fiat. His logic is that compared to USD, the Euro will rebound and be less screwed in the long run than the Greenback. Can anyone please recommend an article that might convey the irrationality of not holding at least some PMs given the current EuroMadness?
and BTW- silver, bitchez!
How about:
The History Of Europe In The 20th Century ??
How anybody can trust a bank from any region is beyond me.
If I'm Greek or Italian or Portugese or fill-in-the-blank I'm going to first hoard Euros, then possibly get my hand on US dollars and, if possible, convert at least some portion of my "savings" to gold or silver or land or something that won't depreciate.
That chart is friggin' scary, even the German/French portion is nosediving.
Bankers and politicians are here to serve us [the common perception, glacially changing] on a platter [the true perception, gaining hold]...
Bankers and politicians are here to serve us [the common perception, glacially changing] on a platter [the true perception, gaining hold]...
I would be interested to know exactly what EAP5 represents please ZH? I am guessing maybe Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy?
Thanks.
CITI, RISING RISKS OF GREEK EXIT FROM EURO
http://www.scribd.com/doc/80922058/Citi-Rising-Risks-of-Greek-Euro-Area-...
PP
I keep my fiat in the credit union, ours is sound as that goes. Better than a bank anyway, they are much more friendly and don't waste money on commercials. So I use my fiat (what little I have) to buy commodities that I can hold as long as I can. Damn I just realized I have a couple of matresses not in use, a matress hoarder, who knew, hmm, reckon that could just put me on big sis' list. Oh well, when the SHTF I wonder how many of big sis' thugs will be prepared ?
Full frontal nude banksters...