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European CDS Ban Sends 1 Year Greek Bond Yield To 188%
Well, it is not just the CDS ban, the fact that Greece is now done is also a modest factor, but since nobody can short Greek default risk unhedged, the only option is to short the bonds. As they did today en masse. Greek 1 Year bonds: the most liquid proxy for default in the absence of 1 Year CDS, closed at 183%, after hitting an all time high of 188%, following yesterday's 173% close. To all those who bought 1 Year Greek bonds when yields hit 100% a month ago because "they just couldn't possibly drop any more, and you would double your money in one year guaranteed", condolences for the 50% loss. We are certain that a new batch of bottom callers will emerge, this time calling for doubling your money in six months.... Then three.. Then one and a half... etc... Until finally Zeno's paradox catches up and you either double your money overnight or you lose it all.
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Greece paying vig daily yet?
Is Greece warm during the winter. If they get kicked out of Euro, it would be a cheap place to visit.
Not warmer than FL; plus, I'm on the water.
I'm a Greek debt buyer. What could possibly go wrong. GREAT YIELDS!!!
Trichet, while handing back the keys to the ECB, was rumored to be humming: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fehw0Dq0Jpo
Greece is on the water too, especially if you go to their hundreds of islands that they own. Greece cannot possibly pay back anything that they are being lent. It would be better to put them out of their misery and allow some type of orderly withdrawal from the EU and essentially the Euro. And yes Greece will be cheap for awhile.
I'm rich, BITCHEZ!!!
way to go, t_k!
unhhh,...those aren't BAC puts. you know that, right?
nobody died, i hope!
lolz. shwing! some ladies should distract you from reality for 30 seconds..
http://hedge.ly/gFWVSm
That's plain cruel.
Why don't most women look like that!
Half are Libtards.
Will I make a lot of greek children with her?
Too low yield... I'm not buying it.
I'll have to add some of these to my SoCal munis.... diversification is good!
Honestly. I'd like for someone to explain to me how this is not bullish.
Yeppers. Greece gets to claim the spread blow-out as income, right?
Hahaha! Like it. But come on, are the Greek's really as corrupt, conniving, deceitful and manipulative as the Wall Street con merchants? On second thoughts.....
yep! greece can buy its paper back at a huge profit, now!
let's book that, danno!
this is a tranche-enabler as shorting greek debt lends new life to the ol' aegean empire, myn_h!
austerity has snapped their recessionary slingshot of hope skyward in a long shot of deadly default leading to that balance sheet bonanza fromerly known as income. surely the greeks will use this windfall to buy the missing german gold...
...stay tooned...
Hey Slewie, they don't even have to buy it back, they can just do that bookkeeping mark to market trick (when it works for 'em, of course) that who was it... BoA did? Where because the price of their bonds went down, they can recognize that decline as a profit.
(making soft whining sound)
And in the case of Greece, use the illusory accounting only not for real profit to offset some more of the not disclosed for real debt hidden in their stinkie jockstraps over on the island of Shankeritapuss.
...if such a plan were workable wouldn't the Squid have figured it out for a hefty fee by now...?? +1 for outside the box diabolical thinking nonetheless.
Where kin ah git me some of them greek bonds?
Don't worry about it. You'll be paying for them one way or another. I just know that some junior jerkoff is loading them into my 401k fund right now. Go get 'em, Fidelity.
You can't the ECB are buying everthing or not.
I just hope our old friend Leo Quislingasskiss has held onto all the Greek government bonds that he admitted purchasing and which he so actively promoted here earlier; moreover, I hope he has even bought more in the interim. Have fun scribbling with your crayons on all that paper, little leo --- it will soon never be good for much else.
Didn't Leo croak on FSLR?
If we're lucky.
He's still celebrating his long position in NBG which is now at a hearty $.54. There is a decimal point after that dollar sign. =)
I think there is some old saying about a fool and his money ....
Sadly, I have been that fool at times. It is not fun.
It sounded like Leo was having fun doing what he was doing, and he provided you with free content. He has multiple sclerosis so the hate just seems misguided.
Whether he has multiple sclerosis or not, hating someone he doesn't even know outside of an anonymous blog because he has a different opinion is pathetic.
My opinion is, he was a dangerous statist who preyed on peoples emotions while counseling people on how best to invest their wages & savings. At the same time admitting to seeing two or three shrinks.
Akak was right for calling him out and took a lot of heat for doing it by those emotionally attached to Leo's "story".
Thanks nmewn.
To be honest, I found interacting with leo exceedingly distasteful, but his many venal, shamelessly amoral and utterly blinkered defenses of the corrupt and criminal financial and monetary powers-that-be --- on THIS site of all sites --- simply screamed for intelligent and principled response. It was to ZeroHedge's discredit that he was even given a forum for his specious statist propaganda and for his puerile and insulting comments.
It needs to be said & stood on when someone takes it upon themself to right a clear wrong.
Actually, I think it is to ZH's credit that he was allowed to spew his garbage. He got blasted and rightly so. Leo was a statist shill of the first order who would not look at every angle and repeatedly refused to respond to clear evidence when presented...he was what he claimed others were.
A wolf.
It falls to a shephard to protect the flock, now some of the sheep know what a wolf can look like ;-)
Good points.
Although I would not put too many of the posters here in the category of "sheep".
Baaaaaahhhhhhhh
(bending over, spreading cheeks for udder zeitgeist enjoyment)
(wiping the blood from my nose)...lol.
Not at all, that was directed at others, the unseen, unheard.
I always think about the ones that don't comment...the ones who may be just passing through trying to form an opinion on this mess we find ourselves in or are just too timid to comment.
The ZH commenters are some of the best there is because we are not all traders & stock/bond junkies...you got professionals in every field there is in here. And no one can be a professional at everything.
Its a marvelous place and I think when someone is clearly off the reservation or out of their mind (like Leo) its policed up...as it should be.
I disagree with the it being a discredit to ZH that he was given a venue. He was given a chance to speak, he spoke, fight club beat the shit out of him for it, and he left. Good, bad, or ugly it was emergent.
Hear here.
Should we not condone Onkel Jagoff's Sicherheitsdienst amongst us, neither should we become.
Does the Gostak distim the doshes?
He was offering his "informed" commentary, take it or leave it. Hopefully you left it.
No reason to hate somebody though. He added some color to the joint.
Indeed he did.
And that color was brown.
In big, sloppy piles and smears.
I had tons of people telling me that I was crazy not to buy real estate in 2006. If I had followed their advice, which was very very pushy, would I have the right to hate them? I know ZH'ers didn't fall for such shit but a lot of people did fall for Leo'esque advice in the real estate field. Something tells me that family reunions in 2011 are not so familial for a lot of bagholders.
I understand what you are saying. If he is full of it, call him on it. But the instant he said "buy Greek bonds", his credibility was over. And he's gone... feels like speaking ill of the dead.
But hating somebody...I don't have that much hate in me, and I'm real cool with that.
I've been conditioned that, when it comes to money at least, not to take it personal. Taking it personal kills you. Shrug it off and move on having learned something painful.
Personally, I have no problem whatsover speaking ill of the dead --- not of the evil dead, anyway.
Death, like illness or physical handicaps, does not absolve one of their sins, or at least should not absolve them.
Seriously, what did he ever do that classifies in your mind as evil?
Quite simply, he repeatedly, nay, incessantly condoned, abetted and advocated surrender to the evil sociopaths who are robbing us blind and driving our economy and our very civilization into the ground. If that is not reason enough for hate, what is? Are not the active, willful and knowing enablers of evil not as bad as those they enable?
That is the trouble with wimpish, politically-correct, morally bankrupt Western society today: too many are afraid to call EVIL for what it is, or to even acknowledge that it exists in the first place. I am not afraid to judge, nor to condemn when it is called for.
The demon that possessed Regan in The Exorcist... evil.
Hitler... evil.
Stalin... evil.
Pol Pot... evil.
Charles Manson... evil.
Child molesters... evil.
The Anthony chick... evil.
Leo... not even close.
If you can't see the difference, then I really don't think you are emotionally equipped for a happy life, man.
Strawman argument.
There are certainly gradations of evil, and just because leo did not send millions to their deaths, nor (physically) torture anybody, does not mean that he was and is not evil. I say that he is evil, absolutely and without hesitation, just as our corrupt and neofeudal debt-based financial system, and those behind it, are evil; just as Bush and Cheney, in launching an unnecessary and criminal war by invading Iraq were evil; just as Ben Bernanke and his actions to deprive tens of millions of their savings via suppressed interest rates and currency depreciation in the support of that criminal financial system is evil; just as all the willing corporate-media shills who knowingly defend the actions of the criminal power elite by parroting pro-Establishment propaganda and fearmongering are evil; just as all the paid mercenaries (aka policemen) who physically and brutishly attack and suppress the growing public desire to openly protest the financial and monetary crimes committed against them are evil.
Evil wears many masks; just because leo's is not among the very worst takes nothing away from its fundamentally malicious and sociopathic character.
That you call them evil says to me that you have no idea what is going on in the world, or has gone on for thousands of years.
More to the point, you have no idea the quantity and magnitude of suffering that has gone on in the last 60 years, in parts of the world you have never heard of, and certainly don't give a shit about, so you and your fellow Americans can buy cheap gasoline, food and modern conveniences.
And still it goes on. Your heroic troops have got heroin production back on track, addicting millions to save the US treasury. Iraqis and Afghanis have been slaughtered in their thousands to protect your access to oil and your worldwide petrodollar tax.
Those 'evil' sociopaths have done so much for you to make your life easier, and yet you rail against them because they shared in the profit?
Your "logic" escapes me.
You present the logical fallacy that merely because I am addressing ONE particular manifestation of evil in the world, that I am blind to all others. I assure you, I am not.
In fact, if you were more well-read, you would have long ago noticed that many of those who are most vociferous in denouncing "the evil sociopaths who are robbing us blind and driving our economy and our very civilization into the ground" have ALSO been the very same voices who have similarly denounced the mainstream, bipartisan, neo-imperialistic US foreign policy of militaristic interventionism around the world.
When you sober up, please return to make a cogent argument.
I guess you are one of those who has ridden a bicycle and grown their own food their whole life. I didn't know the Amish used the internet, but there you go, learn something every day.
What jm said. MS may not be a reason to forgive, but I have some empathy for him. Some people here are cold.
If I am going to pity leo for anything, it is for being a Canadian and an unrepentant statist. But I repeat myself.
And in this case, we got even less than we paid for.
Frankly, I don't give a fuck about leo having multiple sclerosis, cancer, or penile disfunction --- no disease or handicap absolves one from being a disingenuous, specious and arrogant asshole, nor from being a craven collaborationist who supports and defends the financial and monetary Establishment in every one of its many perverse manifestations.
What the fuck is a samoflange?
I have no clue --- care to enlighten us?
From what post or comment did you pull that word?
I'll take a shot:
Samoflange: noun. The sphincter of a japanese feudal warrior....
Nice!
Or perhaps, it is a Gaelic name:
Samuel, son of Flange. a.k.a Sam O'Flange
Stalin had a gimpy arm and a pock-marked face. Does that mean the millions of people he ordered to be executed should say, "hey, no problem, bro, I can't hold it against you, you have a physical limitation"? Just checking to see how far this PC bullshit goes on ZH.
MS cuts him slack how, exactly? And where did the 'h8' come from? Your mind?
Miss his shill posts; gave great insight into the dumbfuk perspective. Like RT.
Yep, both "shill" and "dumbfuck" pretty much sum up our dear, former little leo.
He has multiple sclerosis so the hate just seems misguided.
I don't see where MS matters. He takes a position. It stands or falls on it's own merit.
I usually try to avoid ad hominem attack, attacking the position not the person. But when Leo (or anyone else) starts doing it, he's fair game for it. Then there are times when people display a clear agenda above and beyond a specific position. Like trolls for example. They get nailed at the personal level.
But .... but ...... but ..........
What about Solar Power?
Surely that can help Leo.
Quick! Bring back the cds!
Price of Souvlaki is going up...
Most of the news on this blog are very negative ( regardless that is the reality). Can we have some nice spin off's?
Remember Men in tides? You have to tell us about our death with the smile and in the nice way. Like:
... hehe, we all going to get fucked ... hehe.. how funny.. so cool.............. and you have to let people know the good news... like , soon we all will be put out of misery by our Jesus and his promised change in the pocket.
I got that COSTCO box of Vagisil you asked for.
Just waitin' on an address...
1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Washington, DC.
Send express.
Thanks for that...I found a TOTUS in a ditch next to an empty slurpee cup today and was wondering what to do with it.
cheap brand, can you get me one from sam's club?
You just replied to yourself.
Is that a Democratic or a Republican thing?
Have you any idea just how disgusting your mind is?
Las Vegas is nothing compare to this shit!
Totally. I have lost enough. Time to sit it out for awhile.
At least Vegas comps for the amount of my losses.
I would have been put up in a suite for a month with round the clock blowjobs from super models for what I have lost. And still it was far less than I would be out if I had bought into the real estate bubble. I guess I am a lucky one. Plus my losses are tax deductible.
When are they going to raise that pathetic $3,000 per year writeoff?
I'm more afraid of when carry overs are disallowed.
I didn't give you a "Green" for that.
What the fuck is happening to ZH?
If I wanted to give you a Green I can't.
How can you win dealing with criminal counterparties?
No counterparties. Physical PMs all the way.
i found some. a guy named g. papadontdomelikethat sold 'em to me. such a nice man.
how does one short greek 1 year bonds anyhow?
one might call one's short greek broker, and ask?
+ holy mother of....
Buy or sell Civil War?
it is sickening to ban people wearing shorts..
Been to the Eyetalian Riviera, have you?
Dude... so many years ago like about forever, when I was a young lad living in Europa, we'd gone from the UK to the southernly parts for several vacations and the absolute fucking best was the Canary Islands. Because we were the only non-Europeans there, all the old geezers had their 70 year younger neices on their arms (thought that they would all be dead by the morn of heart/stroke LOL...stroke...neve mind) and the only things to do there were... drink, lay on the beach, drink, eat, drink, lay on the beach some more, drink, set something on fire, yell in some make believe language at small childern until they cried, drink, pass out, come to, drink, pain killers & Ativan to take the edge off, drink, start over...
Now, well versed in the ways of the world, a man of character and honor, fully committed to maintaining order within any society into which I am inserted, to porperly cause havoc and mayhem, I am a firm believer in "When in Rome, do as the Romans." But fuck it, I was in the Canary Islands, so we had to adapt a little.
So I got a hold of the skimpiest string bananna hanger I could, some ourageously oversized flip flops, a humongoliod straw hat and wore an old yellow wife beater with a circle on the front with the number 13 in the center that around the outside said "Hail Mary's Catholic Acadmey for Young Men.
Yup, and there wuz lots of niked wimen thar.
Glad you reminded me of that.
I think that we also threw a couch off of the hotel balcony in the middle of the night and got lost in shrubrey another time. The hotel shrubrey. Or something. Kinda like riding through midnight on the Hiawatha Limited.
It's working! If it wasn't for the ban, it would be much worse! /economist reasoning
Greece should get some department credit cards....only 30% interest on those suckers.
Just think how well dressed they could be!
So the Bonds will all rise and blow the system up?
LMAO.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228354.500-revealed--the-capital...
Interesting. Thx
Great study - explains a lot...
What a good bargain.
Where will it stop?
$10 says it breaks 200% next week, then hits 300% before months end.
I hope my wife enjoys them. She's getting Greek bonds for Christmas. I'm sure to get laid for that one.
There better be some diamond jewelry sprinkled in among those bonds, or you are sure to get laid low.
So if you're the buyer, then who pays you the extra 88% in yield?
I don't understand....
I believe it is part of the 'buy-and-die', errr 'hold' strategy.
I think the 1 year has a 5% coupon IIRC?. So if you pay ~ .36 cents on dollar to get 105 in a year your return would be 188%.
i'm not dead:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXibX5I0ZBU&feature=related
Prove it.
Yipes!
So one year greek debt trading at 42. Stop sensationalizing. If they default you have a downside of 12 and at 50 pct haircut an upside of 8. Not so bad. Finally this problem will be put to rest with all the fallout from the bankruptcy to come but saying that the yield is 188 % is irrelevant at this point. It does not mean anything. All that matters is how far from recovery the bonds are. The curve is trading flat.
Why 12 points downside? 20% Insurance (if applied to Greece as well) gives 22 points downside?
I think they are way past the 50% haircut, more like 100% now.
Yes, Greece is a totally dysfunctional debt market, any bonds under 10yr now moving into default ranges (yields). Merkel and Suckscockzy are 100% mismanaging the whole situation, if the market could wipe out Greece get them to default, punish Italy and maybe save Spain , yeah 1-2yrs of pain and the EZ may just come out stronger. But, short sighted losers are setting up a total market chaos. Volatility is going to get more insane
I gave you a green for the excellent use of "Suckscockzy". Well played. If you could somehow have worked in something that refered to him felching Merkel then I would have given you 10 votes.
hahahaha...
-1 for making me look up the word "felching".
-100 for making me learn the meaning of the word "felching".
-100,000,000 for using the phrase "felching Merkel", and for planting that unspeakably vile image in my mind.
;-)
nice attempt at misdirection you stupid fuck. the point of the article is that without cds to express a short position against sovereign debt, shorting the debt directly is the only option, which is still happening en masse given the continued rise in yields.
the point was not potential trade probabilities or the yield curve. but you already knew that.
Nice attempt at not understanding shit!!! Oh really if you can't trade CDS you mean the only way to short is by shorting the bond? You don't say!!! Wow ... you know so MUCH!!!! You must be the inventor of CDS to understand it so well. Oh and people are doing it en masse ... oh really..
Shorting en "masse" the two year greek bond at a price of 42 is retarded. Even Argentina's recovery was 30 cents on the dollar and that place sits 6,000 miles away from the nearest major population center. The point you buffoon is that its costing you 62 points to short greece for 1 year. 58 to par + 4 pct coupon to make 10 15 points if it defaults. Nice trading strategy you have there. So lets assume that you are not as retarded as you seem and think the bonds are worth 50 recovery. You still have to pay coupon until filing. Figure 3 more months. so 1 pt + the appreciation from 42 to recovery or 8 pts + the 1 for coupon a total of 9 points. To make what? The POINT is what is recovery value not what the retarded CDS is trading at or that you now have to trade bonds rather than CDS and furthermore the next point is that now you are subject to a buy in which you were not subject to before. None of the buffoons lending out the bonds would be that smart but it would be a thing of beauty to see.
This yield is for tomorrow's maturity, right?
At these rates, even Madoff could make money for his "investors." Until it implodes and the FBI hauls him in . . . .
Thank you, ZH, for providing a good laugh day in and day out. Can we call the process of doubling down as "Greek roulette"?
Where do I send my €25.00 in to?
The Hudson River
Those DUMB ASS! european morons You can't short CDS's you dump bonds or push short end yields up. We all gotta make some money here.
The more they intervene, the more we are going to have extreme blowouts, till someone gets it in the eye and it may not just be Greece, say a bigger pig...Spain!
Also those idoits will also attach a sell signal to the EUR, hence USD buying last session. This whole thing is going to not implode (which it should) but explode.
Best of luck to you.
thanks, i got bills and a girlfriend that likes expensive Japanese food.
You'd be better off with an expensive Japanese girlfriend that loves The Bills. Go Buffalo!
I repeat "Those DUMB ASS! european morons"
actually, the correct grammar is 'DUMB ASSES'.
thanks. I repeat and retort with elaboration;
"The Europeans, English included, are acting like complete dumb ass-holes"
best I can do, I am tired now.
Zeno Bonds! Love it.
I prefer Xenu Bonds...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenu
Are they like Mormons?
No. Mormons came from Missouri; Xenu came from Hubbard's imagination...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSi899uhyQM
this is one fubar greek tragedy...probbly coming to a state of confusion near you
Heads Up! happy End!
http://taxi.pame.gr/images/prosopa/mera-magiki.jpg
Greece could buy (with a borrow) all these and triple the money?
The Greece government has got to be one of the most disfunctional governments I have seen in some time. Why have they not just dropped out of the EU and re-organized? It makes absolutely no sense to wait. The EU obviously wants to send them to default so why would they not take the initiative and get on with it. Bring the Drachma back and go the way the Icelanders have and before you know it they would be through the pain. Instead they play make believe with there people. Truly insane to watch.
Because most of their income comes from ripping off other Euro countries. Damn lazy Greeks - only 30,000 protesting today even though they were mostly on strike.
It is a shame that the Greeks didn't have the foresight to purchase CDS on their own country back when they were selling for almost nothing. If they had purchased say $5M protection for every $1M debt back when they were really cheap, they could now default and become rich.
Come to think of it, maybe the US government should consider that! But of course the $70T settlement would certainly cause whoever sold the CDS to go bankrupt. No problem! The US government would certainly bail them out.
Ive been saying this for years. GS or the Fed should and or probably DO own 1000 Trillion in CDS on the US. Lets default AND own the world!!!
BTW, they will ban short all togather. The word "short" will disappear from english dictionary for ever. You will have to use "put", "no long" or "impotent" for describe what you do.
The European cirisis will only get worse as leaders continue to sidestep the real issues. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, and AUDJPY is telling a risk off USD bullish story. http://bit.ly/oTmnWa
lol.
Where's Leo Kovilakis when you need him?
I recall he recommended Greek bonds (then paying 8%) as a great investment a year or two ago. I hope that he managed to dump his personal stash of those things onto the ECB.
Would you like fries with that?