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European CDS Rerack: Germany Back To Triple Digits

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In addition to broad bloodletting across the board, with Belgium and Spain getting crushed as noted earlier, the core confusion continues with Germany back in triple digits, and the UK, which has roughly 500% total debt/GDP including all debt - corporate and private, or double Germany's, still shockingly in double digits. This won't last long.

                            5Y                     10Y             5/10's                         
ITALY                550/560  +15    514.5/534.5     -40/-25                           
SPAIN                480/490  +10    448.5/468.5     -31/-16                           
PORTUGAL       1055/1095 +10      810/880      -260/-200                         
IRELAND           705/735  +5         535/605      -180/-120                         
GREECE           61.5/64.5 +0.5     62.5/66.5          0/3
BELGIUM           350/365  +20.5    337/357        -18/-3                           
FRANCE            234/240  +3         250/260         14/18                           
AUSTRIA           224/230  +8      237.5/247.5      13/18                           
UK                     95/99   +4          111/117         15/19                           
GERMANY         100/103  +3      118.5/124.5       17/21

 

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Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:20 | 1902235 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

No tourniquet would help this mess.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:40 | 1902314 Momauguin Joe
Momauguin Joe's picture

Amputate and cauterize.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:58 | 1902378 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Napalm the whole carcass and move on.

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:09 | 1902422 Tramp Stamper
Tramp Stamper's picture

Nuke it from orbit

 

Its the only way to be sure

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:40 | 1902563 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

^^^^^^^^^^
(what he said)
#winning

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:21 | 1902238 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Only Greece is OK, low double-digit.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:42 | 1902321 agent default
agent default's picture

I think the Greek CDS is quotes in % of the face value.  If this is the case ,it is actually higher than the bond at market value. 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:02 | 1902362 Hard1
Hard1's picture

That's right, that's 64% upfront to buy protection.  Who would pay 64% cash uprfront for a trade that seems that ist's going to convert ISDA into the new joke.   I wouldn't touch that with a 10 trillion feet pole.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:23 | 1902245 youngman
youngman's picture

and gold and silver are down because someone thinks they have to make paper money to be cool.....and the rating agencies are saying all is good....and our GDP drops 20% in a revision...and the Super committee ...wasn´t.....here we go.....another day..another kick the can...nothing changed...

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:25 | 1902259 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

and our GDP drops 20% in a revision...

Wow, really? Not just the growth? :)

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 12:06 | 1902661 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

A 20% drop in GDP might even knock Black Friday sale stories off the front pages for a day or two.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:55 | 1902359 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

Gold silver down= manipulated to enable central banks to buy cheaply and cover shorts?

or cover shorts and buy cheaply. or eat my shorts?

Buying oppurtunity

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:30 | 1902271 Sudden Debt
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Strange indeed as the UK already made it clear it may have to drop the pound and join the euro to stay affloat....

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:33 | 1902282 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

That was Michael Heseltine's statement, not the party line.

Having said that, who knows what those pigfuckers are about to do.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:38 | 1902306 agent default
agent default's picture

I don't think the British government can do that without  a referendum.  And Britain has a tradition for standing alone.  I will be very surprised if the UK joins the Euro that simply and easily.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:51 | 1902353 shortus cynicus
shortus cynicus's picture

Why not? Can't they even afford enough paper spray to convince dissidents?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:51 | 1902354 reload
reload's picture

UK needs to do more printing per capita than most - no way can they give up their printing press.

Hesletine is a cunt, nobody cares what he thinks or says. Just a paid Europhile shill.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:17 | 1902444 loftgroovv
loftgroovv's picture

As a Brit, its true a public referendum would be needed to drop the pound and join the Euro.

 

Being on location, I can also exclusively reveal there is about as much chance of the general public agreeing to do so as there is of Sarkosy not being a complete cock for even one hour.

 

Won't happen.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:45 | 1902330 philosoraptor
philosoraptor's picture

Pigfuckers - a pejorative, I assume? Is the insult specific to your 'hood? It has yet to hit the airwaves in Manchester...

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:51 | 1902352 Rakshas
Rakshas's picture

......judgement call I think....... relative sense and all that.....

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-J9ZpQYW8s

 

eye of the beholder???

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:00 | 1902388 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

We'll alert the porcine population of Manchester immediately so they have a good trotting head start.

Please use lube and prophylactics (free from your NHS!).

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:37 | 1902301 Peter K
Peter K's picture

It was the German FM who made it clear that UK will have to drop the Pound. But not sure which currency they will roll into:)

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:45 | 1902334 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Their new nationaly currency wil be the "Teabag"

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:53 | 1902361 reload
reload's picture

Fantastic SD, I favour the `icelandic teabag`

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:30 | 1902274 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Interesting that France is where Italy was in July.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:01 | 1902393 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

A game of musical chair [sic].

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:33 | 1902280 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Given the palpable economic fear and uncertainty which is reaching a crescendo, gold should already be over $2000 (at the least).  The current GSR of 50+ is one of those Kyle Bass eureka assymetric moments, since the real ratio, based on existing stocks, mine production/proven reserves, and actual demand, should be less than 10.

As many have postulated, the planned MF Global theft may be more about the 1+million ounces of silver standing for delivery in December than anything else; especially with the JPM beneficial positioning; certainly not a coincidence.

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:37 | 1902304 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Fear of what? Inflation? The fear is of another major contraction in which gold will plummet along with other commodities.

Only when the economy takes off or there is a major rumor or certanty of another massive print will gold go up.

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:53 | 1902358 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

You can buy things with gold.  Copper or tin or rice mayber not so much but offer gold, ya people will take that.

So is accepting gold in payment money? Is gold a currency?  It comes down to who you are dealing with, of course. Still a gold coin will get you more even in Amarice then a brief case full of yuan or euros.

Something to think about.

Gold may not be as much of a commodity as you've been lead to believe.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 12:04 | 1902618 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

In a return to the dark ages everything will be a currency. (Food, Diamonds, fuel, candles, plows, axes) It's called a barter system. Only in a residual governed economy will there be a declared currency, but then like in Russia people will avoid the declared currency in 'Black Markets' and continue to barter. It has the added advantage of tax avoidance. Good luck with cornering the gold market. The Hunt bros tried it with silver 35 years ago. I still have the silver that I bought in a similar panic back then, but back then there was more justification for it because we had real inflation back then. (You know like with real aggregate demand for things.)  With the boomers retiring and spending less good luck on conjuring up any real demand. Look for a Japan here not a return to the 70s. There is just way too much productive capacity in the world and bad demographics for demand going forward.

Sure if Europe prints gold will go up, but it is an artificial effect based on the belief that there will be hyperinflation. Truth will lie in wait down the road for gold holders. But yes inflation may come eventually, but we have some more contractions to suffer first.

Watch copper. It is the telltale.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 01:54 | 1905769 FlyPaper
FlyPaper's picture

 The problem with a barter system is its too inefficient to support survival of the population.  

Silver, gold, copper, nickle and gold have all been money - for thousands of years.   So were clam shells.  The fiat money in your pocket used to consist of these metals.

I, personally, do not look at metals as being anti-inflationary nearly as much as a hedge against high levels of uncertainty.   Frankly, although most of the public has not caught on, the level of uncertainty I see is unmatched in my lifetime.  According to my father, born in 1934, in his lifetime either.  

PMs, by nature, are scarce, and so is copper to a lesser degree.  If people view them as a tradable item, they will be traded.  If not - well, they won't.  Its only the central bankers over the last 60 years that have tried to convince people that metals are not money.  Greenspan said early on gold is money; but you can't turn profits on a dime with gold; and you can't print gold either; so no wonder Wall St. and the bankers don't like it.  They can only play the game with paper.  Our commodity markets aren't commodity markets any more; they are fractional-reserve gambling houses.   When the paper collapses (and it will), then the 'leverage' will disappear, and we'll know what is really behind these "institutions."

Agree: People will place a premium on scarce commodities, or commodities they must have to survive.  Large corporations issued "credits" to use in exchange for money.  All comes down to public faith in the backer/counterparty.  But we're going to lose that here soon.  Americans WILL resort to money in their mattress.  US bank exposure to Europe if easily enough to bankrupt not just the TBTF banks, but the entire United States.  There won't be money to FDIC insure your bank deposits, as it depends on borrowing.   That leaves printing; and printing is good for tanglble goods.

items that cannot be obtained less expensively than their manufacturing costs will keep their value or go up, assuming they are in demand, easy to carry/exchange.  Two non-PM items that immediately come to mind: bullets or cigarettes.

 

SEVERE STAGFLATION:  I see a lot of people look at deflation or inflation as being opposites, but I contend you can get both simultaneously.  In a world of central banking, the system *must* inflate.  Deflation will bring printing.  Printing requires borrowing.    Terrible econonmy and inflation?   We've already seen that before.  

What's going in Europe is analogous to the same events that created the Latin disaster in the 1980s.  Borrowed heavily; funding dried up; governments were forced to print to "honor" contracts.   Inflation rates in the hundreds of percent per year.   Terrible econonmy, high unemployment.  This is why the ECB will either print; or the countries will leave so they can print.  Printing is the least cathardic to society - at least at the beginning.

Europe today; US tomorrow...   

Fly

 

 

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:37 | 1902298 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

Stupid question from a financial illiterate, but could somebody please explain how that 3rd column (5/10's) works? Thanks!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:12 | 1902432 sydneybound
sydneybound's picture

its like a yield curve. the number is the 10 year MINUS the 5 year.  a negative number means it is inversed (pay more for 5 year CDS than the 10 year CDS)

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 12:15 | 1902686 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Inversions have been declared by some to be a predictor of recessions. They broadcast that in the US back in early 2008.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 13:42 | 1903092 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

Thanks for the explanation!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:43 | 1902325 Andrew G
Andrew G's picture

If there's one thing that's worth less than shitty fiat/bonds it has to be shitty CDSs

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:44 | 1902326 silver500
silver500's picture

Jean-Claude Trichet Named Chmn, CEO Of Think Tank `Group Of Thirty'

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:45 | 1902331 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Gold is dropping because there is simply no other liquidity.  The rates are up because credit is collapsing and provides no liquidity.

If there's something strange
in your neighborhood
Who you gonna call? - Ghostbusters!
If there's something weird
and it don't look good
Who you gonna call? - Ghostbusters!

I ain't afraid of no ghost
I ain't afraid of no ghost

If you're seeing things
running through your head
Who can you call? - Ghostbusters!
An invisible man
sleeping in your bed
Oh, who can you call? - Ghostbusters!

 

Pretty much sums up the situation.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:45 | 1902332 imsaul0968
imsaul0968's picture

For those of you who invest in an IRA or for long term goals, theres a better approach than buy,hold,hope. Stocks follow the economy so analyzing the economy, specifically the factors that are "leading indicators" and having exposure to equities only when the economy is headed in the right direction and avoiding equities in favor of safe haven baskets is a much more logical approach. And missing the major drawdowns is the only way to help ensure meeting your goals.  If you are interested in investing in a portfolio that tactically invests in equity and safe haven baskets via ETF's automatically, please email me at:

eclark@breakaway-partners.com

and I'll add you to the weekly market commentary & portfolio update distribution list.  Its free to add you and you can follow along our model and our views.  We have been RISK-OFF since 6/30 so have missed all this wicked volatility. Currently invested in short duration treasury baskets as flight to safety drives interest in our debt. 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:49 | 1902347 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Spammer.

Tyler get rid of this douche.

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:54 | 1902364 sabra1
sabra1's picture

relax people, all is going according to the soon to be in hell oldidorks plan! the play has been written, and  the sheeple are awaiting the next act! to the bilderbergs, we're the jersey shore, DWTS!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:12 | 1902431 loftgroovv
loftgroovv's picture

Aren't the UK' figures exaggerated by transaction merely flowing through the City of London?

Its the world's main financial centre. Is it really all "UK debt"??

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:23 | 1902479 Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

Sterling's days are numbered,I believe the Bank of England are merely inflating and devaluing it to where they think they can join without too much pain.

I think they will join at around EUR/GBP 1.3-1.50,thus resulting a halving of the UK wealth as measured by its exchange rate from the rate three years ago of 0.7.

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:31 | 1902518 Montezuma
Montezuma's picture

Is there a number on all US debt including all the state debts?

Two layer euro area is already in the works no other choice.

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