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European Confidence Tumbles To November 2009 Levels, Euro-Wide Double Dip Inevitable

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following this week's ongoing battery of abysmal economic news out of Europe it will hardly come as a surprise that yet another indicator has been released and is pointing to a multi-year low in the deleveraging (elsewhere called incorrectly austere) continent, namely the Euro-area wide confidence index which just slide to the lowest leve since 2009, missing every single estimate and declining sequentially across the board.

  • Economic confidence 92.8, est. 94.2 (prior 94.4)
  • Industrial confidence -9.0, est. -7.0 (prior -7.2)
  • Services confidence -2.4, est. -0.5% (prior -0.3)
  • Final consumer -19.9 (initial -19.8)
  • Business Climate Indicator -0.52, est -0.30 (prior -0.30)

Visually, courtesy of Reuters:

And with the UK, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Belgium, Denmark, Holland, Czech Republic, and Slovenia now in re-recession, and Spain a definitive shoo in next week, the kicker is that German GDP will almost certainly now report a second consecutive GDP print in a few days, thus pushing the entire European continent in a double dip.

Yet of everyone in Europe we feel the worst for Italy and its technocratic government, both of which are going to have a very difficult time explaining the confidence implied GDP print of worse than -2%.

 

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Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:00 | 2375901 Irish66
Irish66's picture

every day I have to turn my computer upside down for the charts to feel good

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:25 | 2375930 Reptil
Reptil's picture

my screen tilts in all possible degrees, it's very handy for understanding finances.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 07:10 | 2375971 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Surely, you'd have to view them in a mirror, as the current dip would otherwise be past growth?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:36 | 2376128 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I like the charts the way they are.  Just doubled down on shorts laddered through the year.  Now show me some charts like that.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 07:20 | 2375983 justinius1969
justinius1969's picture

This may cheer you up..

http://agrowingconcern.tumblr.com/

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 07:27 | 2375992 BandGap
BandGap's picture

That did wonders for my mood.

It's why we're fighting this damn war!

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 07:28 | 2375993 midfish
midfish's picture

funny.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:45 | 2376171 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its all falling apart fast now, yet somehow we bask in Hindu cow calmness and confidence. Frankly its really creeping me out at this point.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:01 | 2375902 Frastric
Frastric's picture

Prelude to USA's double-dip recession, or until they actually try some austerity which is coming 2013.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:04 | 2375905 schatzi
schatzi's picture

Or inflation, whatever comes easier. OK...so inflation it is.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:09 | 2375910 Quintus
Quintus's picture

I am simply amazed that attempting to cover up a fundamentally broken economic and monetary system using wads of freshly printed money hasn't worked.

The principle of replacing real economic activity and output with 'Stimulus' money created ex nihilo seemed perfectly sound to me.

Oh well.  I guess the only answer is to do more of the same.  Maybe it'll work next time.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:53 | 2375915 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Then again you are not part of the Magic Circle of Politician Courtiers at the Palace of the Bankers.

The French King Louis XIV went mad and built a luxury fantasy at Versailles but his son did not mortgage it or sell it to pay for his decision to fund War against the British Empire in India, Canada, and the American Colonies. Instead he mortgaged his nation and found his aristocracts did not think THEY should pay taxes. So instead his son was guillotined and Tax Farmers like Antoine Lavoisier were also executed by the representatives of the people obliged to pay the bills for this hubris.

The Bankers have stayed in the saddle and their equerries in Politics have served their Paymasters.....the Day of Reckoning approaches

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 07:12 | 2375973 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Yes, because as Krugman will soon remind you, the problem was that the stimuli wasn't big enough. He wanted $8-10tn of public sector spending - although, of course, the politicians would have to make sure the public debts wouldn't grow too much.

So, in short, Krugman wants the state to spend, but not get further into debt doing so.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:18 | 2375917 q99x2
q99x2's picture

We don't need em. We've decoupled. The US economy runs on fraud otherwise known as the financial services sector. We can increase our financial services until ouly 1 citizen votes and 1 citizen is president and 1 citizen is left standing. We can decouple all the way down to 1.

Financial Services. Its a numbers game.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:19 | 2375919 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

ECB Fear Indicator near record level

 

Banks deposited EUR782,33 billion with the ECB Wednsday, up from EUR759,32 billion Tuesday.

 

http://www.cds-info.com

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:22 | 2375925 Silversem
Silversem's picture

A double dip is coming. And so is more QE, on both sides of the Atlantic. This will create some nice trading opportunities!

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:22 | 2375926 cnhedge
Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:22 | 2375927 Reptil
Reptil's picture

Bloom (MEP, UK) vs. Draghi (ECB)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oS6Zaoc6zt0

 

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:34 | 2375934 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The message from central banks is going to be as positive and upbeat as they can make it - it's there attempt to keep a lid on things.

I don't think many are buying the spin.

 

SP500 does not look healthy.  The big volume days were down days in the last few months.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/djia/hourly/

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:35 | 2375935 SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

Haha.  Silver's in the ground.  Beer is in my hand.  Bring on tomorrow, I'm ready to party!

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:37 | 2375937 SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

Actually, my silver WAS in the ground.  Until I decided to "play pirate" and it all fell to the bottom of that lake in a drunken boating accident.  

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:56 | 2375956 Al Capowned
Al Capowned's picture

Dont know about anyone else but i am keeping my physical silver safe in a security deposit box over at JPMorgan, I was told by Jon Corzine this is the only real way to keep it safe in the current climate.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:44 | 2375944 SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

So?

QE, LSAP, ZIRP.  And the ECB just buys more shit... I mean bonds.

Who is winning DWTS?  That's all that really matters!

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:42 | 2376152 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All that just buys more time, and it seems a trillion only buys you a few weeks now.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 06:52 | 2375950 Al Capowned
Al Capowned's picture

Sound bullish snort a few lines of hopium and wait for markets to soar and PM's to get hammered on this news.

 

 

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 07:43 | 2375954 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Much As I hate the banksta clique, I have to admit, debt or no debt, they run the world and won't stop doing it as they are better organised than those political shills who are supposed to reign them in but who CONSISTENTLY take the least line of resistance; and I am being polite there in my affirmation. 

Oligarchy capital, kleptocratic and heartless, is transnational and holds the world by the short hairs. In the face of this recession, all political resistance towards their power play now has a huge inbuilt hurdle from the people themselves; the race to bottom has made the destitute full of hate, full of racist and nationalistic xenophobia, in their despairing knee-jerk. If this grows we go back to 30s in Eurozone. Huge problem, which the global clique will finger point to; to tell their political enemies to leave the scene, as they are more dangerous to world growth than the "so called private debt".

They have both the politicians and the people by the short hairs.  

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:24 | 2376100 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Turning the common people against each other has always been a major element in their playbook.

BTW, isn't it time for another War?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:41 | 2376150 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We just dont know when yet, but obviously the endgame is world war. 

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 07:06 | 2375965 Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

The charts are all at 2002 levels, and could be turning. See where they all went steadily in 2003 and 2004. Isnt that where we are ? (Right).

Now if the GDP % change alone  is to be considered as an indicator of actual measured - albeit faulty - economic activity, then the pattern is not ambiguous. 

But Monti, Rehn and Barroso will do the data inversions for Euriope with grand statements and its off to the races again.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 07:07 | 2375966 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Dead cat bounce over, double dip here we come ..hold on tight, it's gonna get rocky

 

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 07:22 | 2375984 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

what would the world look like if the Mafia ran gov and banks?? well here it is.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 07:24 | 2375988 BandGap
BandGap's picture

The Euros need to borrow our US accounting schemes and propaganda machine. problem solved.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:37 | 2376131 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

2 years of endless headlines on riots, austerity and bailouts are bad for business.. who could have known?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:39 | 2376142 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bankruptcy of your continent is bad for business? Yea that IS wack!

Fortunately, it seems the US can somehow float above its own bankruptcy and looming austerity and riots though, for now at least.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:37 | 2376134 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So let's see....we just bailed out Europe, but its right back in recession so where does that leave us now...basking in recovery mode? How can it be Europe recession was a big deal a few months ago, but now its somehow not?  This constant pervasive state of total suspension of disbelief is really creeping me out big time now.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 08:45 | 2376167 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Yes US has decoupled!.. that's the catch phrase until Nov.  It's going to become even more... bizarro

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