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European Finance Ministers Driven To Despair As Reality Returns
The release of the Troika report (stating the what-we-all-know that is much larger haircuts will be needed for any type of debt sustainability) seemed to bring events this weekend in Europe to an early halt, according to SudDeutsche. As the sheer mathematical certainty of the event horizon that is Europe these days is slammed at light speed into the foreheads of the European cognoscenti, we finally see some actual frustration, foot-stomping, and 'throw-your-teddy-bear-out-of-the-pram'-ness. The Telegraph reports on some choice turns-of-phrase among the leading players, our favorite being:
"It was grim. The worst mood I have ever seen, a complete mess," said one eurozone finance minister.
But it only got better from there, with several of the major movers feeling the need to express their frustration (and what is German for Schadenfreude?) at the lunacy of what SudDeutsche reports was in the Troika debt sustainability report (via Google Translate).
The numbers that the Troika on Friday evening on the debt situation in Greece is presented, have altered the agenda of the Euro-Finance completely. Really wanted the department heads to advise [if] they need to convince the country's private creditors to agree on a bigger discount on the bonds held by them, than the previously planned 21 percent.
But the "if" was suddenly a "how high?". Because the inspectors of the Greek lender describe in their "debt sustainability report," a scenario that far surpasses any fears. The country needs even under "normal" conditions, so if everything goes as planned with the reforming and saving, at least 252 billion euros , by 2020 to get back on its feet.
If the economy collapses further, state enterprises can not be privatized as hoped, nor do the reforms [produce the] € 444 billion needed to [please] the inspectors. So it is suddenly clear: the euro rescue fund EFSF is hardly sufficient for more countries to save, and his successor, the latest from 2013 operational ESM also not good.
...
"It is clear that a substantial debt cut is necessary," however, said Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg....
The Exchequer George Osborne sharply criticized the actions of the euro partners: "The crisis in the euro-zone causes major damage in many European economies, including Britain," he shouted in Brussels, adding: "We have had enough of short-term measures, it enough, paving draufzukleben that bring us through the next few weeks. " Europe must tackle the causes of the crisis. Used to be a comprehensive and lasting solution to the crisis, so that growth in Europe could begin rising again.
... The Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn announced immediately to resist. "What we need now is rest and no whip," he said.
A stronger economic cooperation is also possible on the basis of existing treaties. "It is important that we do not open another front," said Asselborn. "It can not be that domestic political considerations of even the greatest country outweigh everything."
It was clear that the reality of the size of loan required to 'solve' Greece alone will likely leave the cupboard bare:
Jan Kees de Jager, the Dutch finance minister, told colleagues: "We've got to get real. People are talking about new defences but with one gulp the whole €440 billion could be gone, leaving the eurozone with no protection at all."
Schaeuble-to-Everyone:
According to insiders, Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany's finance minister, could not resist taking an "I told you so" approach - he had been, after all, the first to call for an "orderly" default for Greece 18 months ago, at a time when the cost of such a move was less than one third of the price today.
"Schaeuble is a man who does not mince his words, whose reputation for harshness and arrogance is well earned. He was, frankly, unbearable," said one diplomat.
And Baroin (France) to IMF swiftly followed by Lagarde (France/IMF)'s slapdown:
Francois Baroin, the young and inexperienced French finance minister,
attempted to hit back, complaining that the IMF's default medicine would hit
France the hardest; the country's banks are highly exposed and could
threaten its "untouchable" AAA rating.
But Mrs Lagarde, who had held his post until taking up the IMF job this
summer, "shut him up" by brandishing the report and pointing to it
its detailed figures. "She really slapped him down - and in perfect
English too, a language he cannot speak," said a diplomat.
We suspect many of the attendees (finance ministers) have not actually spoken to one another, read any serious research, or even attempted to comprehend the whole-versus-the-single sub-optimal decisions they face (until very recently) as their voluminous outbursts were incredible:
"Their shouting could be heard down the corridor in the concert hall where an orchestra was about to play the EU's anthem, Ode to Joy," said an incredulous EU official.
It did not stop there as the pointlessness of the meeting was highlighted as it became increasingly clear that the good old Franco-German comradeship may be fraying at the core and at the edges and without them.
Finance ministers - including George Osborne, the Chancellor - expressed frustration on Saturday that their emergency meeting could take no decisions of substance until Mrs Merkel and Mr Sarkozy had buried the hatchet.
"This Ecofin meeting has been reduced to an academic seminar, an exercise with absolutely no purpose," complained one finance minister. complained one finance minister.
For those expecting any solution that is more than a simple kick-the-can hold-your-breath for the final solution, we suggest hedges asap on Sunday night as it is crystal clear that nothing of substance will be created soon and furthermore, we wonder whether this is some elaborate global game to force the Fed to rescue everyone by flooding it with greenbacks.
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Few things are more pathetic, nor more dangerous, than a gaggle of Narcissists in a state of depression.
"Their shouting could be heard down the corridor in the concert hall where an orchestra was about to play the EU's anthem, Ode to Joy," said an incredulous EU official.
lol
Sounds like the political pressure is being turned on now because they've run out of excuses straight from the horses mouth.
France is going to start demanding ECB printing as they realise there's no way anyone, even the German taxpayer can bailout the world.
Germany is going to hopefully hold the line at "insolvent default first or you get nothing because we can leave the Euro any time, but even for us these experiments are starting to get expensive, so decide now!".
UK wants them to do anything, just sort it out, even if it means a loss on official creditors (including their contribution), quite likely.
Rest of EU probably siding with Germany as long as they are not one of the BIGPIS (Belgium, Ireland, Greece, Portgugal, Italy, Spain) or France.
France: desperation clear now that the thin veneer of charm wears thin.
Germany: stubborn idealists that can't see the train coming even as they lay on the track for a quick nap.
And the practical Brits know its hopeless for these freaks across the channel so they willl down some Port and hope for the best.
.
Good point.
The hourglass seems to be running empty.
One European Parliament needing dramatic swift action is an improbability. A bunch of them together being required to act decisively? A tradi-comedic farce to be watched from the sideline. I'll just play my lottery numbers instead, and take my cash out of the bank.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lW4J1e2WW68
I highly recommend this particular video by David Icke to everyone here -- irrespective of what you think of him -- and not to learn anything you don't know already but to get your thinking straight and focused on the central issues [pun intended]!
His message:
He just doesn't go far enough into explaining that taking individual control back from the central planners should, by definition, mean strengthening local community control over local community issues and lifestyles. SECEDE NOW!!
Dismantling the Brussels dictatorship and taking the EU back to individual sovereign states does not have to mean that some of the good things of mutual cooperation need also to be thrown away! For example, free movement between states doesn't need to be taken away. Treaties between all the states can still be signed for those specific purposes (but not for the whole fucking shooting match!). SECEDE NOW!!
Similarly, dismantling the Washington dictatorship and taking the USA back to individual sovereign states does not have to mean that free trade and movement between the states will be lost, or that the common identity of "The United States of America" need be lost. Treaties can still be signed between all the states for those specific purposes ... without needing a central planning bureaucracy snuffling truffles on the banks of the Potomac to manage it!! The original Articles of Confederation provided a good framework, but got subverted almost immediately into a Constitution that led back to centralised control from Europe! SECEDE NOW!!
David Icke is not stupid ... and he knows exactly who is behind the curtain (and it's not lizards!). But he is afraid to name them and always redirects to the bogeymen of the bankers and corporations on the right and the whipping boys on the left (Rothschild, Soros, etc). But, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter who created the problem: What matters is that we take back control from the central planners, whoever they may be, and fix the problem! SECEDE NOW!!
I don't. His economic understanding is quite superficial, and he mixes truth with lies, though it seems to be out of ignorance rather than malice.
He's not an economist, and he's never (to my knowledge) shown himself to be a free-marketeer.
All media pundits have an agenda, and he's no exception ... they need funding, backing and the protection of a group to be able to continue to spread their own messages. But in this particular video, he just states the obvious in a cogent and succinct presentation - with very little banging of his own drum.
Sure, he states the 'obvious'. That is part of my issue, since some of the obvious is obviously wrong.
But. For the sheep at OWS, this is a decent introduction to the topic I suppose.
Would really like to see these guys fail.
If you thought about what their failure will mean, you wouldn't say that.
OWS and the Tea Party are just fighting over who should hold the gun!
(Ooops ... That should get me junks from both sides! I could strike out for MDB's record!)
so who do you support?
I support my family, my local community and anyone who voluntarily wishes to join either. Beyond that, I'll volunteer my support to any larger group that benefits my family and my local community so long as I can voluntarily withdraw if they fail to meet any of the conditions we originally agreed on.
Since, by definition, political parties and organised protest movements pander to many groups with conflicting interests, I don't support any of them. They are guaranteed to break any promises (ie. social contracts) they make.
A supporter of family and local commmunity = enemy of the state...as we all should be.
For Greece to return to a sustainable debt load of 60% of GDP, the nominal value of its bonds needs to be cut by 64%, in line with the current market price at 36% of face value
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_RdF7S0TNAHY/TVHJXv7r0vI/AAAAAAAAAfU/KaMjwsQx29...
You're shit doesn't stink less the more you post it....
Just sayin'.
Let me offer what I know will be an unpopular angle on your thought. What if the "successfully greedy" are the very wealthy, and the "unsuccessfully greedy" are those who aspire to be wealthy but overextended/indebted themselves in the effort to do so?
Fraud is an evil accelerant in this, but the inception is in greed, which is common to all. Just look at all the rage - it is not divorced from ENVY, is it?
OK, OK, you win. You have the exclusive rights to post both in bold and blue.
And here's a twist on your rants: What if the divide-and-conquer owners of the media are deliberately focusing on the "originators" of OWS, and selecting the views of blogs and "useful idiot" protesters to further their goal, but are starting to lose control?
In other words, if they built the foundation, does that mean we can't change the building plans before their "planks" are laid down?
Go ask Matt Taibbi, isn't he your brilliant progressive/socialist prophet du jour?
I mean, you don't need anything that we stupid Americans have done, what we would think or say...you're just gonna rip out the foundation and burn the house down anyways, right?
Don't piss on my back and tell me it's raining Mr. OWS/Adbuster Op...get on with the next stage in the permanent revolution already!
C'mon, I double dog dare you!!!
I took my oath 12 years ago.
And this is getting skinny....
Do you enjoy bashing those truly kind little progressives? does it make your ego swell with pride knowing that you jumped up and down on some lil christian who really deep down believes that thier Love can conquer your hate?
I will tell you this mrs. double dick your fat hariy wife in the ass twice before I do the same to you daughters.. they are not the problem, they are not the ones that will be paying for your scalp(s).
Now, EVERYONE here knows exactly who I am.. so you could even try to sneak up on me.. like the coward you are (i know from the foes YOU! choose).
I would happily be your huckleberry BITCH!
so, mrs. mouthy.. balls in your court.
They both get to hold guns.
The Elite get to hold all of the property.
You think that "Americans" are the ones that founded, funded and guide this new movement aka OWS?!?
OWS-NY is a couple of blocks from where I work (no, not in financial mafia) and I was for a short time a member of it...when I thought there might be hope to stopthe tyrants with the RULE OF LAW...
I can't speak about the other locations across the nation (and I have no interest/affiliation with Europe et al.), but what I see happening at OWS-NY is nightmarish!
If you care about the AMERICAN experiment, you should be aware that there are -0- AMERICANS @ OWS-NY/NJ...
Moreover, the "leaders" of the kamp are dyed-in-the-wool SOCIALIST agitators, every one is Marxist brain-washed and a Hegelian dialectic practitioner - EVERY ONE OF THEM!
Have you read the book Animal Farm? If not I suggest you do it asap if you want to understand where this is headed...
The people that started this have NO idea the monster THEY'VE created, it is truly time that the adults pay attention before the children burn the house down!
I generally like what you say. Not here, though. I think it does not matter who is protesting (though it's to me an unfair generalisation to call them all socialists, at least one guy is not) - as long as someone is generating heat. I hate communism but I would march with communists against fascism any day.
the one guy (I'm sure there are more of such people out there):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKqP6v_BoV4
Listen to the comments in the video. Many people realize capitalism is not the problem at OWS and I think at this point the "socialists" are the minority. People of all stripes are there don't be sold on one person's opinion.
Peter Schiff at OWS:
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/17999453
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/18000013
as a 99% er that has to work during the day, is it unethical to give someone $100 and a sign to go protest on my behalf?
hah! Nice question for the ethicists out there.
Or that should peobably read like Ethicysts, given where we are as a world today.
And the EU (the political class at least), for what they did to Libya....... I pray this entire "Union" implodes into it's natural formation.
Ode to Grief...
Peace, in Pieces
ORI
What if I told you I was there every day since the beginning on your behalf? Where can I send my bill to you?
you have to make your own sign, then. Something witty, like "If I go to the bank to get beaten up by the police, should I go to the police station to cash this check?"
time to pull the trigger boys and girls
behind all the pomp and circumstance, the elite aren't worth shit.
Enuf of this crappola...when is DWTS on?
Maybe they will dance to "Owed to Joy"
Behind OWS? Meet the Marxist spawn of Frances Fox Piven who wants a militant revolution
The current meme among the media elites is that the Occupy Wall Street protests are an organic and spontaneous movement created by college-aged students who are frustrated with the cost of student loans, housing, health care and overall corporate greed.
If that were true I’d like to state the obvious, that behind every student is a teacher.
Meet Professor John Asimakopoulos (for purposes of this article we’ll call him Dr. John). He is an associate professor of sociology at the City University of New York-Bronx where he works beside Marxist revolutionary Frances Fox Piven, the quickly aging and fragile grandmother who is best known for being one-half of the Cloward and Piven strategy. Dr. John has also been published alongside other famous Marxists intellectuals such as Howard Zinn, Ward Churchill, and Bill Ayers, advisor to/lifelong friend of/acquaintance of/not associated with President Obama. Among Dr John’s 2,000+ Facebook friends are Wade Radthke from ACORN, Cindy Sheehan, an anti-war activist, and Lisa Fithian, one of the leading organizers of the Occupy Wall Street movement.
OWS: The Perestroika Deception Develops a Face
In recent weeks, every American has watched with morbid curiosity as swarms of hate-filled, sputtering communist loons and Hippie-wannabees have taken to the streets, shutting down cities and leaving a path of destruction wherever they go. Although many Americans disagree with the stated agenda of these radicals, most think them harmless, dismissing their acts as pathetic attempts to resurrect the failed social movements of the sixties.
But this group of determined radicals is not to be laughed at. Lisa Fithian, the primary OWS organizer, is an unrepentant communist and proponent of government and economic destabilization as a means of achieving totalitarian centralization along communist lines. Writing for a socialist rag, Fithian once stated, “I have no issue with property destruction…We’re in a society where property is idolized, so a lot of people don’t get it yet that it doesn’t really matter.”
While this should shock Americans (and would, if the facts were being reported) this is nothing new. This is just the latest tactic in a long-term strategy that has been quietly moving forward for decade...
Dissecting the OWS List of Demands
Nassim Taleb: "OWS Second Generation Marxist Class Struggle"
OWS Is Almost Entirely Socialist/Marxist
quixotic certainly not...just a plain vanilla nailed to your narrow minded left/right dogma agenda..ows are fighting the socialist/fascist(take your pick) 1% of lying bastard thieves who have destroyed our economy. the 1% and lying bastard thieves terninology understood by all... carry on rantin quixotic but no one is interested in your historically irrelevent labeling structures . a lying bastard thief is exactly that..right / left, socialist or fascist this is your ancient tribalism you are using,, as you quite singularly fail to muddy the waters and help us crystalise the reality...
Back to your drum circle, Terry. You may wish to ascribe such universal goodwill to OWS, but anyone who looks beyond the MSM's cautious fawning can see that the "99%" is fractious and partitioned, yet overwhelmingly Marxist the longer it goes on. Oh, and the Assembly has decreed that you drummers are not getting paid.
Lech Walesa Not Attending #OccupyWallStreet in New York After Discovering Hard-Left Organizers
The Polish champion of freedom and liberty, founder of Solidarity, winner of the 1984 Nobel Peace Prize, and first President of modern Poland Lech Walesa had been rumored to possibly be traveling to New York to stand with Occupy Wall Street protesters.
Based on our discussion and intervention, President Walesa is not going to get involved with the OWS. He is not comfortable with the “organizations” behind the movement.
This spring, when President Obama visited Poland, President Walesa refused to meet with him.
America is a center-right country politically. The Occupy movement, at its core, is a hard-left movement. If successful, America would cease to be governed on our founding principles of freedom and liberty. Thus, we react to the news that Lech Walesa will not support the OWS movement with much thankfulness...
A large number of those persons who took their business to China , and have a controlling interest in the Fed are Socialist/Communist. Freedom means free labor to some.
A large number of those persons who took their business to China , and have a controlling interest in the Fed are Socialist/Communist. Freedom means free labor to some.
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Ummmmmmmm. It is funny how US citizens like to segment themselves into smaller groups to try to deflect from the point they are US citizens.
Why point at them as Socialist/Communist when a better generality exists and encompasses all people who share that idea.
Freedom means free labour to some works for US citizens, no matter they are socialist, now defunct communist or capitalist.
US citizens think freedom means free labour for some. That is why they maintained slavery when they started their 'free' nation.
US citizens are, useless to pick on various subsets of US citizens. US citizens can come in all kinds, capitalist, socialist, christian, muslim, atheist, white people, negroes, etc...
It does not matter.
What matters is US citizenism.
Your groovy babble is hypnotic, but at least you return to a central point -- US citizenism.
By being mad that we think we're better than you, you only prove our point. If you were better than us, you wouldn't care what we thought, which means you're not better than us, which makes us better than you.
Sorry to break it down like that, but keep up with the posting. You're obviously intelligent, well-read, and opinionated.
By being mad that we think we're better than you, you only prove our point. If you were better than us, you wouldn't care what we thought, which means you're not better than us, which makes us better than you.
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This is stupid. I admit, it is what you expect from US cheap propaganda...
US citizens think everything in terms of inequality.
But one trying to know what a cat thought or even if cats think mean nothing in terms of better than the cat or anything.
Even better, who knows if cats care about what most human beings think (including US citizens)
Following the same line of reasoning, who is better? Cats or human beings?
US citizenism has totally ruined any attempt to think. The obsession of US citizens to turn tables so they are always shown in the good lights makes it impossible for them to admit facts and leads to disastrous thought processes.
Look, I avoid most beefs, and I respect your right to have an opinion. My point is this: Your posts all blame America and American citizens, but you never offer a solution.
Here's one: government transparency. If I could go online and access my senator's schedule, who contributed to his campaign, and his voting record I would be able to make a more informed decision about whether I want him to represent me. If I were an elected official, I would want my constituents to have an accounting of my efforts on their behalf. As a member of the "US citizenism" I live in the freest, wealthiest, best-fed country in the solar system. Which makes me better than you.
Failure would create great buying opportinities. Can you say "pennies on the Euro"? Of course you need to keep your own money safe first in US Government obligations, and find a way to buy Euro denominated assets at a time when all EU counterparties are suspect and could vanish at any moment. The last one is not trrivial.
Why beat about the bush? - He's a cunt. His input is about boosting his profile and making some coin. Lets hope the TSA does its job and the next report we get from Dave is from inside a cell at Guantanamo.
David Icke - are you fucking kidding me????!!!!
He is an absolute empty vessel with nothing new to add. He's come late to this issue and has simply jumped on the band waggon. This contains nothing new - NOTHING.
He is entitled to an opinion as are we all BUT FOR FUCKS SAKE dont take what this muppet has to say as an educated or an informed position - at best he's a twat at worst he is pied-piper.
Now stop lowering the tone.
So is this it? Are we staring into the void? Is that a huge drop off right ahead of us there?
aahhhh, not possible. They'll figure out a way to make it last at least another week. For sure.
the half life on the gimmiks is getting shorter and shorter. they need something big.
European war bitchez!
Screw that...they just need to figure out all that neutrino faster than the speed of light stuff...and yesterday!
like likckety split tilps ytekckil ekil
I think Kim Kardashian can fix this. She is as fake as the economy she must have some insight.
The Onion reported the US has already began working with Bernie Madoff to fix the problem here
"When you stare into the abyss the abyss stares back at you. "
- Friedrich Nietzsche German philosopher (1844 - 1900)
Of fuck, can't find anything inspirational from a dead French guy. Sorry.
Was it Mark Twain or Nietzsche that said that?
I'm sure that Nietzsche would approve of OWS applying for 501(c) tax-exempt nonprofit corporation status!
LOL...just what we need, another parasitic .ORG begging for TAX PAYER funding and to be the new special P.A.C....
Can you say complete and total bullshit?
I knew you could...
You spend a lot of time worrying about OWS that has done nothing to affect the economy so far and none complaining about the thieving elite that stole trillions and dumped it on the average person. Those people you worship.
"Man will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest. "
Denis Diderot
"Hell is other people" - Satre
I imagine Monsieur Le Nain is thinking that right about now.
And still, the USD is in much worse shape than the Euro. The Euro has yet to really turn on the printing press. While the US is continually turning the printing press to the next notch higher and there aren't many notches left.
That's the advantage of being the reserve currency. It's not just the US that has huge quantities of these USDs. It's just about everyone on Planet Earth that thinks they have a store of value in their mattresses full of dollars.
We'll all go together when we go.
And gold and silver are about to be on sale...for a short while. Get it while you can, because Heli-Ben is about to start pushing the C-notes out of the copter.
Ben has been pushing bales of C notes out the helicopter doors for more than two years now, but he is hovering very precisely over Wall Street while he is doing it. That will not change. Part of what is driving the protests is that Wall Street then uses the funding to speculate in commodities which gives Ben his much desired inflation in the range he wants - 2% MOL - while making sure incomes go down by at least that much, problem is that real inflation is running 10% at least while incomes are dropping by as much. It is this inflation tax that Benny is using to pay down some of the expense of bailing out the banksters. But, the bailouts were so gigantic that he sees the need to up it 25-30% take on the 99% and extend the timeline to eternity, that is why you keep hearing the new buzzwords in the MSM "New Normal."
People think they can hide wealth in PM's, maybe for a short time, but when TPTB decide too much wealth is being hidden from their grasp they will craft a solution to get at it just as they got all the rest. Then smug self congratulations about being the only ones smart enough to insulate yourself from our evil owners will cease. Slaves are allowed to retain the illusion they are getting away with something like stealing a chicken from the master if it helps to keep peace in the quarters, and the master would have had to feed them that chicken eventually anyway, but the slave masters know what the slave does not, that there is no way off the plantation for any of them and no place to go even if one could leave because like it or not no other place is home.
"Every Hottentot and every Eskimo..."
But...this one goes to 11.
I just thank God it is a mathematical certainty Europe and the USA will completely and totally collapse economically, so the beast will finally be starved of money and be starved to death.
Nope. Once the money charade is exposed fully.
It will become fully Hell on earth.
I hate it but I can't deny it.
That side will have it's day.
The source link for this article appears to be wrong, surely this is from the Onion?
Ms. Market is gonna wish it was, on Monday morning!
This is obviously bullish since now it's clear that Europe will do what is needed to fix the crisis. Time to buy
Actually Germany aren't the idealists, they are more practical than what you are saying. They know exactly what is coming down the track, but they have a weak Merkel and whomever she is in debt to being goaded and manipulated into continuing to fund these measures. French banks are insolvent, British banks believe it or not are insolvent also. They aen't waiting for them to do something because they are practical. They want them to do something so they won't be part of the group of countries that need help once the domino's start falling. Do you actually think that England and it's banks have been the most responsible, they haven't.
In fact I bet that the last sentence is correct, that they are hopeing that the US comes in via the IMF and do at least the 2 Trillion bailout like Geitner said week before last. This is horrible.
Very few are not insolvent in Europe. They exclude the Germans who are insolvent too.
US cheap propaganda to try to confuse a struggle for power with another status like insolvency.
All these nations are converts of US citizenism. US citizenims favours inequality, making such that the control over power is necessary to be sure you are on the right side of inequality.
It is not about solvency. It is about leading the gang of insolvent European nations to be sure you will get the less pain from what you are going to force onto the others.
Power in this US driven order is used to protect yourself on the bad consequences of what you impose on the others.
Money is just paper, insolvency when counted in paper is entirely irrelevant when paper can be created at whim. Countries running persistent trade deficits are insolvent, countries running a persistent trade surplus are solvent.
Which is why for a stable global economy all countries should run a trade balance, true Keynesianism.
Countries running persistent trade deficits are insolvent, countries running a persistent trade surplus are solvent.
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Really? How does it work?
Trade is a zero sum game. Running trade surplus thanks to insolvent countries (as it is the case for Germany) is no guarantee of solvency.
How it works is that most of Germanys debt is either internal or can be netted away ... so if they default on their debt the only thing it causes is shifting paper, it will be short term disruptive but after the disruption nothing has changed about the fact that they can pay for all their imports with the value of their exports ... their current economic structure and standard of living is fundamentally maintainable (as long as natural resources don't run out). Which is why ultimately the market doesn't really care all that much about deficits in trade balance/surplus country, see Japan.
Deficits are a method of convenience, they are a politically easy route with a population poisoned against taxes but blind to inflation ... best to just treat them as a form of taxation and look at the more important picture, trade balance.
When Greece defaults they will be forced into trade balance, which is a huge step back from their current trade deficit ... the prices for imports and inputs will shoot up and they will be fucked ... nothing will change about the fact that they can't pay for their imports with the value of their exports either ... their current economic structure and standard of living has to fundamentally change.
Look, I am a fiat currency hater, myself. However, when nations and individuals default it is not without consequence. Those paper currencies represent moving labor, goods and ingenuity at something. Defaults are the ultimate waste. Money, i.e., people's accumulated labor went for nothing. While defaults clear books and allow a reset they have severe consequences.
The problem is even after a default will any country actually change it's ways? Will there suddenly be fiscal sanity? Will the welfare state evaporate or be put in a fiscal cage? I think not as long as the current methods and power structures stay in place.
Also, there are NO trade deficits. They are a stupid myth that kills international trade. When Germans sell us a BMW, they get $50k but someone here has the car. The trade is always even. The problem is that we just count money stocks. Given all that is said about fiat currencies and the shenanigans that accompany them would you rather have the paper or the car? Now you do get currency problems because we use paper currencies. Nations deep in debt need the paper and not the cars. That is where I will meet you halfway.
When the US buys a BMW the Germans get a US bond they throw on the pile (and maybe some US stock and real estate, but mostly bonds). In theory those are a liens against the future tax base of the US, in practice it's paper which will never be fully convertible into products. The value is going to disappear, by hard or soft default (inflation in excess of interest on the bonds, the income from real estate and stocks will be taxed away by capital controls if the trade balance ever shifts too). The US is not going to run 4 decades of trade surpluses to pay for it's 4 decades of trade deficits, not going to happen.
Having a trade deficit means you pay for product with paper.
Yes, especially to your last sentence. The flip side is that all nations try to scam each other on the value of their paper with fixed exchanges, selective devaluations and market interventions.
Love em or hate them, the one beautiful thing about PM's is that you cannot scam the money. An ounce of gold anywhere in the world is the same. No one cares if it has a panda, eagle or maple leaf on it.
The Germans are not insolvent as long as they have their superior means of production of the stuff people want. That level of productivity is what has made them richer than their neighbors and the ones that everyone still hopes is going to bail them out. Hopefully they're smart enough by now to know that a war is not the best way to keep that asset.
"Practical" indeed. Let us know when England's Secretary of Defense gets the brown stuff off his stick.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15461793,00.html
Heard from Liam's office "Oh yeah Adam!!! Oh yeah Adam!!! More to the left!!! Oh yeah!!! NO, move that paperweight dammit!!!"
The practical Brits are devaluing while running a trade deficit ... "Keynesian" to the core (not that trade deficits are at all Keynesian, but everyone always ignores that).
They are easing far more than the ECB.
The practical Brits know this is the only way out of this mess worth considering.
If these contingents were less egotistical and stupid, they would have cracked the books on Deutsche Bank long ago and concluded that their core tier 1 capital is probably less than the advertized 8.1%, they are the largets CDS writer on the planet, and they are going to cost Germany A LOT more than Greek ever could. Sorry to seem like I am picking on Germany, it really applies to all these irresponsible idiots incapable of dealing with the consequences of their poor management. They are waiting on the Fed and/or China, thr Saudis, or some SWF to save them-- like children. They clearly don't care that their stubbornness will bring everybody else down too.
No country is going to touch this mess. The world has had enough of their utter incompentence, and they aren't going to treat the EU like one gigantic Greece. They'll help the banks, but not these idiots.
"Their shouting could be heard down the corridor in the concert hall where an orchestra was about to play the EU's anthem, Ode to Joy," said an incredulous EU official."
Yeah, that's a scream. That ranks with, "Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"
And consider: we will still have Beethoven, long after these yelling bureaucrats have left the stage and even as we are all plodding through the years of the Greater Depression.
Deck chairs. Titanic. Music.
.
..
...
Iceberg.
JEWSUITS SUNK THE TITANIC AND THE FED WAS BORNlaugh it up all you want my fellow americans. but the joke is on you. there will be no opportunity to laugh at the 50 governnors and their state comptrollers quibbling in a large community hall for the discussion of problems amongst and between the united states. the 40 or so 'honest' states will be forced to bend over and take it from the likes. of New York, California, Illinois, Texas and Delaware...etc...without any discussion as the decisions come down from the closed door central planners in New York in the building behind where I work ( the fed ), as those decisions are passed down and read from the telepromter in DC.
remember the speech nixon gave in the earlier 70's on tv , telling the world the u.s. would no longer honor it's obligations in gold to the world. well, the next famous speech will soon be coming from whoever is the next president. and it will not be the rest of the world getting screwed by the fed, but all the states that are subject to the financial drainage of the new york fed, and the few other big money states.
There will be no 'public' or 'academic' disucssions to listen to and laugh about before the decision is made. you will simply be dictated to. it won't be so much humurous, as it will be blood roiling, when you are told that your savings have one day been 'davalued'. {of course those owning land, machines, productive physical capital, gold, will be waiting to tell you 'i told you so'} if you think this won't happen, do your research. it happens to EVERY country in financial distress sooner or later, on the way down the road of economic deterioration.
Any regular ZH reader already has their gold expecting exactly that.
Tell the avergae American what you posted:
And they'll laugh and call you a "nut". Can't save everyone. The people laughing here only laugh with grim humor.
Well said.
And why?
FUCKING POLITICIANS AND CONSOLIDATION OF POWER. DRUG/DEBT DEALING WHORES.
LIARS.
FUCK "PROGRESSIVE" BULLSHIT.
"PROGRESSIVE" MEANS>>> WE WANT IN ON THIS GAME, WE WANT OUR PIECE OF THE CORPSE. BANKSTERS/POLITICOS are the same fucking thing. They each and together exist in a world separate and yet dependent on US.
These pieces of shit are maggots. They are crows. They are monsters. They sing you lullaby's and then gather to mock you and steal from your soul as you sleep.
Those who support the centralization/consolidation of power are pussies and or idiots/ and or complicit.
Yes, it is that obvious.
There is no longer the option of 'changing' this failed system. This system is beyond salvage.
It must blow.
And for any of you diehard leftist out there?
FUCK YOU.
I will not walk into your gas chamber just to make your rebellion against reality a bit more simple.
Is it really such a stretch to perceive that the current mess this world finds itself in is anything other than 'progress' toward a bunch of narcissistic, power mad sociopaths hell bent on playing 'sims' with the entire world?
The problem with centralization in power is that it doesn't really need a large government ... strict enforcement of property rights and centralization of property ownership centralizes power just as surely as an oversized government. Given the current Gini coefficient of the US just making government smaller will not decentralize power.
I might be a leftist pussy ... but anarcho capitalism is a pussy solution too when most property has been acquired by theft. To feel you have been honest and smarter than the average hard working joe so you're entitled to a "solution" which lets you keep the fruits of your labour ... as the majority of honest hard working people suffer because the fruits of their labour have been misappropriated. "Haha suckers, should have invested in PMs and physical assets" ... now that's pussy. Real anarchists at least have some balls (although I disagree with them).
Is the Income Tax Unconstitutional?
What is the law that states we have to pay taxes ...it is brave to want to save the whole world and to self sacrifice. but a nation of free men is first built on being able to freely create and produce food and things of value to provide for your family and community , and with these things are included free money, which is gold. you got gold and silver, then you got something you can provide to people that they will freely accept as a tool of trade which makes communities wealthier and builds trust.
you need to understand that barter and gold/silver are part of the same honest community trading system. they often work together hand in hand, locally.
but i do agree, that the idea of someoone hoarding gold for the sake of a leprechaun vision of getting rich, just as jim rodgers pursues, leaving his countrymen to their own demise, or off stashing gold for the purposes of absconding with it to another country , isolated and isolating themselves and each other from community interaction ----is pussy shit. self destructive pussy shit. reasonable peoel understand gold is not the solution to all problems creating by financial chicanery. it is A step toward a path of honesty. but a big step at that. and i'm NOT talking paper gold, i'm talking owning it.
that said, it is ok to leave the u.s. sometimes i too think the u.s. is far gone and heading off a cliff. and for someone that wants to get out of dodge gold is one of the few practical ways to smuggle wealth out of the country. so...to each his own.
WELL SAID! Most are getting that. The current system must BE KILLED! It will not go away quietly, and those in power are the minority and are liars. They state they are "capitalists" and want "freedom", but only for the elite, the rest must pay for their mistakes, in the elitist mind's eye.
WELL SAID!!!
"Rest of EU probably siding with Germany as long as they are not one of the BIGPIS (Belgium, Ireland, Greece, Portgugal, Italy, Spain) or France."
YOU FORGOT UK - 400% debt to GDP.
The Bank of England is the four hundred year old mother of them all. And she is printing.
Nice try!
Did you pull that number out of your ass?
It's around 100%.
Even Japan isn't at 400% - YET!
"Their shouting could be heard down the corridor in the concert hall where an orchestra was about to play the EU's anthem, Ode to Joy," said an incredulous EU official."
This didn't happen on Saturday in Brussels, but on Wednesday in Frankfurt (JCT's farewell party)
after the meal sarkozy is reported to have made fun of merkel's eating habits.
Gaggle of Narcissists? Surely we can do better with Collective Noun Creativity than "Gaggle"...a "Nest of Narcissists" or a "Bloat of Bureaucrats" or a "smack of Senators" or a "plague of Finance Ministers" or ......
REAL COLLECTIVE NOUNS:::
•ostentation of peacocks
•deceit of lapwings
•cartload of chimpanzees
•mischief of rats
•rhumba of rattlesnakes
•prickle of hedgehogs
•bloat of hoppopotami
•plump of wildfowl
•warren of wombats
•sneak of weasels
•knot of toads
•implausability of gnus
•ambush of tigers
•scurry of squirrels
•drift of swine
•shiver of sharks
•skulk of foxes
•fesnying of ferrets
•harem of seals
The possibilities are endless given the cast of characters, in Brussels and in DC.
Yeah, but he has at last count, eighteen upticks, and you have zero, go figure.
Now, he has 21, and you probably just upticked yourself, so he's still winning 21 to 1.
A murder of crows
an Andy of Rooney
I would think Andy would spell Ecofin "Ecoffin". More appropriate.
Add 'Congress of Baboons'. Very fitting as baboons one of the most stupid apes.
Agreed. but they have fucking big teeth, unlike euro politicians. And they have huge red arses.. most fitting ;O)
Clutch of Vampires...
A veritable volume of Vampyroteuthis infernalis...
A urinal of eurocrats.
A Lack of Leadership
murder of crows
rook of ravens
fun game to play
A surrender of Frenchies.
Oh, I missed the other Euro countries there. Sorry.
A Foolishness of Finance Ministers
School of Squid
What every doesn't realize is that the unfolding of the EU plays exactly into the hands of the US. This is a 3 horse race folks and one is about to drop out, do you think it was any coincidence that the IMF announced it wasn't going to participate in any sort of bailout? The US said no fucking way, not because they are prudent and responsible but because they know their fucking game theory. If the EU / Euro fails, there will be a tremendous rush to USD's as a safe haven or lack of a better alternative (any coincidence Switzerland just devalued currency). People, there is nowhere else to go! As global markets rapidly deteriorate and the USD (PIG) appreciates this wiill accomplish several key objectives:
1) A market crash via Euro crisis / appreciating $ will strike the fear of god into the American public and leave them begging for QE3
2) The resulting crash will also cause PM's to crash and provide enough deflationary 'cover' to warrant the argument that inflation is subdued enough for another round of...you guessed it QE3
3) They will use the appreciation of the USD as a sign of dollar strength and justification/cover to print a few trillion. EVERYONE MUST LEARN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VALUE AND RELATIVE VALUE. A dollar can still suck versus PM's and still be out performing the Euro. It's all about relative value not nominal!!!
4) Don't think these fucking pigs of the 1% aren't fucking scared. Still though, their greedy asses are looking for that last entry point to convert their WEALTH in $'s to the only real wealth: GOLD/SILVER/LAND/OIL. Better be quick in grabbing your physical because THEY will know when to buy and then it will be outlawed for you after they've gobbled up theirs and converted themselves out of USD's. Last call folks, buy any dips with reckless aggression, you will never see these prices again.
5) The ultimate TBTF monstrosity of corporate greed from Jeckyl island (JPMorgan) is permitted to cover their shorts in Precious Metals and get on the right side of the trade.
5) Once the 1% and Banks have their positions aligned in the correct direction. Enter the Bernanke, folks we are going to see unprecedented QE's, the only retention of wealth is going to come from things that cannot be diluted just by hitting the Print button on the HP laserjets.
As such, I loaded up on FAZ puts Friday at the close, loving this trade right now! After that I have no idea, to early to tell but it definately ends in pain, prepare accordingly folks...
Some feedback would be appreciated folks!
Decent logic...i agree the end game is to print, pring, print.
Regarding the FR or any of the privately owned CBs (they almost all are, along with their nations which are privately owned corporations: United State of America, the organic sovereign state no longer exists...UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, the corporation (registered at Country House in London) replaced it years ago: As we know the US treasury must ask the Fed to print money to which the Fed will charge interest.
On day 1 there is no money. Congress askes the US Treasury to raise $100 to fund the budget. The UST then askes the FR to print $100. They do so and raise a 1 year bond (for example) at 5%. At the end of the year the UST has a problem. They are required to pay back $105 when there are only $100 in the system....the only way to solve this 'problem' is to raise more money via the FR debt system obvious...this is the definition of a ponzi.
The families (the owners of the CBs and every corporation of note) that set up this criminal system obviously knew this so they required an agenda to protect their slave system and power. The end game is now obvious i.e. print everyone elses wealth away and leave only one force standing THE STATE (A private corporation, that they own).
So yes load the fck up with physical PMs when they suck the dollars out the system on any Euro collapse but don't kid yourself it will be used only to out run the snake because they will take it from you in the end. They won the real game and that was to control of peoples minds.
dow2000,
You must be right. Europe is the first to drop out.
However, in some sense they are the luckiest.
They will be the first who have the chance to be awaken from this nightmare, the first to get rid of their masters and the first to start rebuilding.
It is to be seen if they use this opportunity or go for WWIII.
BTW, the dollar will not survive more than two weeks the Euro. Then comes the Goldar.
FAZ may erode to negligible by the time you could actually have profited from it.
FAZ puts? I hope for your sake you meant FAS puts (that's a bet against the financial sector, while buying FAZ puts is a bet the financial sector will increase in value-hard to keep a straight face when you assume that!). And don't use naked puts-that's just gambling because of time decay. Open a bear put spread on FAS (e.g. I bought the Nov put 13/10 spread while selling the the Nov call 14/17 for a net entry of zero and an upside of +$300/contract if FAS<10 and a downside of -$300 if FAS>17 ) at expiry. You should note that these triple leveraged ETFs always suffer slippage from daily compounding, so never go long, always short them (buying a put or selling a call is just a synthetic short on the underlying).
There, I've just saved you a lot of capital. Better reverse that trade on Monday, you don't want to be long financials.
Yep you are right, Long FAZ calls "short Financials".....need to lay off the Grey Goose
What every doesn't realize is that the unfolding of the EU plays exactly into the hands of the US. This is a 3 horse race folks and one is about to drop out, do you think it was any coincidence that the IMF announced it wasn't going to participate in any sort of bailout? The US said no fucking way, not because they are prudent and responsible but because they know their fucking game theory. If the EU / Euro fails, there will be a tremendous rush to USD's as a safe haven or lack of a better alternative (any coincidence Switzerland just devalued currency). People, there is nowhere else to go! As global markets rapidly deteriorate and the USD (PIG) appreciates this wiill accomplish several key objectives:
1) A market crash via Euro crisis / appreciating $ will strike the fear of god into the American public and leave them begging for QE3
2) The resulting crash will also cause PM's to crash and provide enough deflationary 'cover' to warrant the argument that inflation is subdued enough for another round of...you guessed it QE3
3) They will use the appreciation of the USD as a sign of dollar strength and justification/cover to print a few trillion. EVERYONE MUST LEARN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VALUE AND RELATIVE VALUE. A dollar can still suck versus PM's and still be out performing the Euro. It's all about relative value not nominal!!!
4) Don't think these fucking pigs of the 1% aren't fucking scared. Still though, their greedy asses are looking for that last entry point to convert their WEALTH in $'s to the only real wealth: GOLD/SILVER/LAND/OIL. Better be quick in grabbing your physical because THEY will know when to buy and then it will be outlawed for you after they've gobbled up theirs and converted themselves out of USD's. Last call folks, buy any dips with reckless aggression, you will never see these prices again.
5) The ultimate TBTF monstrosity of corporate greed from Jeckyl island (JPMorgan) is permitted to cover their shorts in Precious Metals and get on the right side of the trade.
5) Once the 1% and Banks have their positions aligned in the correct direction. Enter the Bernanke, folks we are going to see unprecedented QE's, the only retention of wealth is going to come from things that cannot be diluted just by hitting the Print button on the HP laserjets.
As such, I loaded up on FAZ puts Friday at the close, loving this trade right now! After that I have no idea, to early to tell but it definately ends in pain, prepare accordingly folks...
Some feedback would be appreciated folks!
One slight problem- your premise assumes Dollars as a constant. Won't happen. The Fed is slobbering at the mouth to fire up QE3 and print Dollars, so the Dollar won't gain the strength you envision.... The US will print more Dollars than the EU prints Euros.
The EU isn't stupid- they're playing poker with the Fed, and while Bernanke is smart enough to realize this, Geitner is not.
But Geithner is just the name of the Treasury Teleprompter. Who writes Geithner's speeches? Zbig Brazinsky maybe?
There is absolutely no need at all for QE3 - as the stock market is very clearly signaling.
Guess who started the EU dream.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/1356047/Euro-federalists-financed-by-US-spy-chiefs.html
wow, holding huge bullish bet over the weekend is kind of crazy. It doesn't matter if it is bullish bet or bearish one, just too riskly given the uncertainty of the EU meeting - not my type of trade.
there is nearly an infinite amount of time they can kick the can...there has been many moments like this the last year and nothing has collapsed. always count on a can being being kicked, shorts being covered, or relatively good data to prop up the market. ZH was pushing the negative GDP print for Q3 and now were looking at probably closer to 2%. just look at the can kick in May and then again in August with the debt ceiling.
You have made my repeated point with more alacrity than I. This can will be kicked and kicked and kicked.. No one and I mean no one wants to awaken from the dream of debt replacing productivity. The PTB have found the combination of human weaknesses in psychology, mathematics and character that allow them to steal us blind and we raise not a peep. The printing when necessary will be greeted with the same bovine stare as the rest of these crimes. Only when the shortages hit will this turn and then the sheep will simply look for a strong man to order them about. Never underestimate the power of stupidity in crowds or in the U.S. individually.
A sovereign nation produces it's own money. It doesn't play second fiddle to the banks. This whole thing is a farce, set up to support a shift to one world government. Smoke and mirrors, and the increased momentum suggests TPTB are getting ready to go for the money shot.
"This whole thing is a farce, set up to support a shift to one world government. "
I don't get this and I don't buy it...
What is this entire post and thread about?
The dissolution of a medium sized chunk of the "one world government" fantasy.
T.D likely nailed it. The Bernankster is going for the mother of all prints. They started talking up this MBS bullshit right about on cue with the public exposure of how doomed the EURO (centralized government lite) truly is.
Benny needs to save the EUR in order to save American banks, in order to give his boy obama a shot at 2012.
How's that gunna suit ya OWS dupes?
Why who are you thinking of? The US narcissists in Wall Street/FED/DC? Who have been printing fiat for two generations?
EU will learn from its Godfather Masters - from US EMPIRE - and they will print, but never catch up with the largest narcissists in the world - the US'ians.
And one day this winter the US'ians will wake up and violently be forced to look at their own fiat garbage foundation - as it crumples underneath their feet.
And one day this winter the US'ians will wake up and violently be forced to look at their own fiat garbage foundation - as it crumples underneath their feet.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
No. For the moment, the USians force the others, including their lifelong pals, to look at their own fiat garbage foundation.
Pushing people under the bus is a US citizens traditional sport "better them than me"
It works quite well.
Mr. Bernanke has served well the best interests of the US, by inflating commodities prices, leading other countries to suffocate as they had to tap their USD reserves to survive and now here we are, other economies, even when healthier, are exhibited as the root issue.
Well done, Mr.Bernanke, the job of a true United States of America Patriot.
Mr. Bernanke is owned by a higher power that also owns the BoE, the BoJ and the ECB and soon the BoC as well. That commodity price inflation of which you post is the way they will gain that control over your China that they do not currently enjoy as well. The paper currencies are just a cheap part of the means to an end that is world domination.
Large scale shooting wars are so messy and the outcomes are unnecessarily uncertain.
But they told me everything was ok Friday, and I totally believed them! Damn you CNBC, you get me every time!
This is great -- someone should write a screenplay based on these events ASAP. I particularly like this descriptive nugget from The Telegraph . I can just see the weary reporters hanging around outside, plying the escaping finance ministers with cigarettes for bits of news.
Please re-read the whole post while listening to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7j3ngaI8YUE
read it a 3rd time listening to this one
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0
on the fourth pass...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjedLeVGcfE&feature=related
or take the fifth....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNWpZ-Y_KvU
I think the screenplay has already been done (Talladega Nights):
Jean Girard: Bon. So, what if you just said: "I love really thin pancakes"? That is a fair compromise, no?
Kyle: That is a fair compromise.
Herschell: Very fair, actually.
Ricky Bobby: No! Because then everyone would know I really meant crêpes!
Kyle: That's actually a pretty good compromise right there.
Jean Girard: Why do you want me to break your arm so badly?
Ricky Bobby: You don't understand. You don't understand because you don't understand liberty. You don't understand freedom. So you put a crack in my arm like the crack in the Liberty Bell! You hear me?
Cal Naughton, Jr.: [leans down to talk to Ricky in a low voice] Hey. This is just between you and me, okay? I mean, forget all these other guys. But he did give you a pretty decent out. But it's your call.
Ricky Bobby: [whispering] What do you think?
Cal Naughton, Jr.: Don't say it.
Ricky Bobby: Yeah. I'm not gonna say it. Nope. Break it, Pepé Le Pew!
Jean Girard: As you wish.
[He breaks Ricky's arm]
Ricky Bobby: [in pain] He actually did it!
man, that is good dialogue.
Am I reading some demented person's play or is this real?
Shakespeare would have written a beautiful tale of this. In fact, maybe he already did. Prescient that way, cuz the themes are timeless and repeat repeat repeat through history.
see merchant of venice, now imagine it on a global scale.
Shylock - Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaIf they find no solution for the Euro mess Letzebuerg is toast too.
Nothing but magical confetti will do, cuz no SWF is going to touch this crap.
So are they still going to throw 8 billion dollars away, in the Greek debt trashcan, next month?
Oh sure, "a deal is a deal."