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European Implosion Resumes With Italy Firmly In The Vigilantes' Sights

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The duration of the European bailout was 48 hours give or take. And now reality is back in the form of the following headlines:

  • Italian 10 Year BTP Yield surges to all time high 6.153% before ECB intervention takes it back to ... 6.122%
  • Expressed in price, they have dropped to a record 90.697
  • Italian-German 10 year yield passes 400 bps
  • Italy CDS soar 22 bps to 427 bps
  • Italy 5 Year yields bonds join drop, yield rises  to over record 5.91%

See a trend? The one thing Europe was trying to avoid, contagion spreading to Italy, has happened.

And in other news, German retail sales 0.4% M/m vs est. 1.0%; Italian unemployment 8.3% vs est. 7.9%; Norwegian retail sales -0.5% M/m vs est. +0.2%, EU-to-German yield spreads all wider, significantly for Belgium, Italy, Spain, ECB deposit facility usage soars to €248 billion on Friday, up €30 billion on the day and just $21 billion off the 2011 high of October 10 (with 10 more days in the current cycle, we will see a new record in a few days). iTraxx resumes surge, XO up 18 to 636, Fins up 6.5 to 214 bps, even with sovereign CDS now irrelevant. How long before corporate CDS are banned? Yet despite all the news, the EURUSD is still firmly planted at 1.4000. Just as expected, the weak-hand shorts take every dip opportunity to cover. Fear not: opportunities will be ample in the days ahead.

Italy 10 year Price:

Italy 10 year Yield:

ECB Deposit Facility usage:

 

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Mon, 10/31/2011 - 06:56 | 1827878 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

BOOM! into the new week

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:05 | 1827895 FinHits
FinHits's picture

Semantic Debate strikes back, Bitchez! Euro 1.4019! ;-)

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:25 | 1827926 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Relax... don't do it...

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:49 | 1827965 FinHits
FinHits's picture

"Relax don't do it When you want to suck to it Relax don't do it When you want to come"

Sorry, but I don't want to suck to it. Do you?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:02 | 1827882 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Monday... it's only Monday. Sarkozy should be muttering to himself like schizo while the Bernank is now going to have to deliver one hell of a speech on Wednesday.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:13 | 1827908 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

"it's only Monday. Sarkozy should be muttering to himself like schizo" How's that different than any other day? :)

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 06:58 | 1827884 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

The Fireworks will come early this year

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:09 | 1827899 PeterB
PeterB's picture

Quick,
To the time machine

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:01 | 1827887 cnsteph
cnsteph's picture

This sure is a long process.  I wish they'd just get it over with.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:03 | 1827888 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Top Ramen for Christmas. Ask Costco to drop ship them. Get the early bird specials. Western nation Christmas is gonna be dreadful. No IPHONE, IPAD, Acura and diamond rings and his her toys. Stupid Fucks

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:03 | 1827889 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Happy Hallowe'en, Bitchez!

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:03 | 1827890 SlipStitchPass
SlipStitchPass's picture

It's like leaving the bowl of Halloween candy on the front porch with a note that says "Please only take one piece". Did they not know that the Morgan boys and the Goldman girls live near by?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:01 | 1827991 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

 

First kid to knock on my door wearing a Vampire-Squid costume gets all the candy.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:04 | 1827891 pendragon
pendragon's picture

you missed horrendous inflation data out of italy

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:05 | 1827893 malikai
malikai's picture

Who the hell would even think about buying a CDS on any PIIGS now? Isn't it absolutely clear that there will be no "credit event" ever, ever, as long as Barc/HBC/DB/etc are writing them?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:06 | 1827896 HD
HD's picture

 

 Want a good laugh?  

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45098793

Now that's comedy...

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:28 | 1827931 Socrate
Socrate's picture

Mort de rire :)

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:09 | 1827901 GerritB
GerritB's picture

What are the odds: black monday on haloween?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:17 | 1827913 Eurodollar
Eurodollar's picture

It isn't really contagion. Italy had more potential than any to fall of the cliff. Berlusconi has borrowed his way to power. He has maintained his power due to borrowing. And the bill belongs to the tax payers. I assume mr Berlusconi has some nice riches in Switzerland, Austria, Panama etc.

 

His popularity in Italy over the years have shown the problem with democracy. No one votes for the guy who says "HIGEHER TAXES" "LESS WELFARE" "LONGER WORK HOURS" "RETIRE LATER". The one who gives gets the votes even if what he gives is built on nothing but a house of cards. In that way, people deserve what is coming. It is simply the democratic response to the house of cards crumbling if you like.

 

I am sad it always have to really crash before people wake up. Berlusconi and the bankers will be criminalized. Who cares, the end result is less welfare, longer working hours, higher taxes and a higher retirement age.

 

That said. I am afraid that contagion can happen NOW. France is the key. This is where the fences have to be built. We can not afford to "lose France". We REALLY CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE FRANCE. But, we will! Then good luck to us.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:24 | 1827924 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

sorry, could not resist... "Berlusconi has borrowed his way to power" ??

his four governments have shrinked the gov deficits, compared to the others...

not enough for my taste, but at least they are going in the right direction (including brawls in parliament over the thorny issue of extending the pension age)

I agree with you over France - there is the key to all

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:52 | 1827972 Eurodollar
Eurodollar's picture

My little 20min research on this gave me this answer:

 

Berlusconi, who has served as prime minister for about half the time since May 1994, has
overseen a 13.5 percent cumulative increase in debt per capita while in office. The debt rose 5.1 percent under four other premiers in the period.

 

He has obviously had some tough times with higher borrowing costs and recessions baked in,  but he has also had some glorious bull runs to surf on.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-10/italian-debt-surged-the-most-un...

 

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:26 | 1827998 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Eurodollar, my views on Italy go back to the late sixties and there is this little detail of what happened to all budget deficits since 2008. Cumulative nominal amounts are always higher for the later deficits, thanks to inflation. Shall I concede the point and retract to say that I "endorse" the Berlusconi Govs II + III only? Or shall I just concede and write a lame "without him it would be worse?".

The point I'd like to make is visible on the Bloomberg graph you've kindly provided: all Italian govs since quite a while were on a containement course. I just can't agree with this "uh, this man criminal, this man bankrupting country". Now, if they just would tighten the spending belt a notch...

"Berlusconi has borrowed his way to power"? No. Your graph is not conclusive.

-----

Note how the article is structured: "The debt burden almost doubled between 1982, when it amounted to 63.1 percent of gross domestic product, to 121.8 percent under Berlusconi’s first government in 1994"

Berlusconi I started in 1994 and ended in 1995. The article gives the impression his gov I doubled the debt from 60% to 120% (with 4.8%?). Just as a reminder how some little data is fudged in words. If the man says "I have inherited a huge debt mountain" and he refers to his first gov, then sorry, the rascal is right.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:30 | 1828028 Eurodollar
Eurodollar's picture

Ghordius; Thanks for the insight. As always there are shades of gray and most certainly you prove that point. Trust me, it is most appreciated! I am here to learn, and to get my views ripped apart :) I went about acquiring some experience first, now I am studying the theory. Now I find it too facinating. It consumes me. I can't stop reading, looking at videos or let the topic be at any family dinner. Feel free to crtitizise or bring me up to speed at any time, I love it.

Economic history (even the sixties is history for me) is something I haven't had the time to go through yet, but I will.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:57 | 1828069 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

My friend in spirit, I have to thank you. If you are interested in the EURUSD, don't miss:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/when-money-dies-author-adam-fergusson-and-...

and

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eur-opens-lower-bailout-disenchantment-ret...

IMO the MegaBanks want 1.3 for a big fat Xmas bonus, so be careful...

 

and get an avatar! Cranky-old-geezer has the best avatars I've seen here around... mine's has only annoyance value

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:32 | 1828158 Eurodollar
Eurodollar's picture

Thanks again!

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:32 | 1827936 HD
HD's picture

But the french will never surrender the fight - when the going gets tough the french...

Oh crap. We're doomed.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:49 | 1827964 plantigrade
plantigrade's picture

shrinked = lapsus for illusively ?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:34 | 1827940 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'his four governments have shrinked the gov deficits, compared to the others...'

Shrunk. Grammar aside, EU troubles got you a bit frazzled, much to lose for EU member states no doubt.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:39 | 1827948 HD
HD's picture

Let's just say it "shunked" and split the difference...

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 07:45 | 1827958 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Shrunk. Thanks. Frazzled? Perhaps, I'm not sure about that. Some bad dreams, yes.

Much to lose? Well, yes, the way I see it some part of the MSM and the "alternative media" have lost sight of the fact that we are all in together.

"We" is the "First World & Allies", the biggest commercial "Empire" the world has seen. "We" is all NATO+BRICS.

Don't get me wrong, "something's gotta give", IMO. But just "bashing" the "usual suspects" just because Murdoch's goons want their media market shares is a bit ignorant, IMHO.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:01 | 1827990 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Fractional reserved currency systems have all the contagion prevention properties of condoms made out of herpes scabs lubed in clap juice.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:19 | 1828118 catch edge ghost
catch edge ghost's picture

Doc says this was a common reaction to the sedative administered earlier. He asked us not to freak out when we see the cocoon if we go back in there.

The trend I want to learn more about hasn't started yet?  Something about Europe borrowing RMB instead of China buying the lolbonds?  And then notChina can issue RMB denominated paper?

meh. stupid rabbit hole.

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