European Sovereign CDS Blowing Out Again

Tyler Durden's picture

And so the second leg of the "triangle of terror" (recall Bank Funding Stress discussed earlier which is getting far worse by the day), "Sovereign Stress" returns with a vengeance. In other words, two out of three components of the European crunch have deteriorated to late September levels. Expect stocks and FX to follow shortly.

                         5Y                  10Y              5/10's                         
ITALY           449/457  +16     443/457     -12.5/2.5                           
SPAIN           378/386  +8      366/382        -12/2                             
PORTUGAL  1110/1140 +55    870/940      -250/-190                         
IRELAND      770/800  +30     600/670      -180/-120                         
GREECE         59/61  -0.5        59/63         -0.5/2.5
BELGIUM      298/308  +15    295/309          -6/4                             
FRANCE       189/193  +5      208/218          18/22                           
AUSTRIA      151/157  +3   166.5/176.5       15/20                           
UK                83/86  +2.5    99.5/105.5       16/20                           
GERMANY      89/92  +2     108.5/114.5       18/22

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glenn17's picture

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slaughterer's picture

You have to remember you are seeing Euro sovereign CDS up during a naked short ban on CDS. 

Irish66's picture

Who was it that took a big position in Ireland's bank IRE?

slewie the pi-rat's picture

when in doubt, just assume it was Robo_T

Tense INDIAN's picture

is this GUY talking about the NOVEMBER 1-2 meeting of the FED...m not sure plz..

spiral_eyes's picture

I have to say watching the interconnected hyperfragile mesh of debt, this stupid fucking house of cards and leverage come tumbling down...

It's a beautiful experience. 

PaperBear's picture

Brilliant quote in that article: 'Keynesian economics is regarded by the naive as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.'

shansnv's picture

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Carlyle Groupie's picture
  1. China desperately needs to raise dollars to bail out its real estate market and paper over the cracks of its credit bubbles, and so goes into full-on liquidation mode.
  2. China retaliates to an increasingly-hostile American trade policy and — alongside other hostile foreign creditors (Russia in particular) — organise a mass bond liquidation to “teach America a lesson”
  3. Both of the above.

It'll never happen bro.

Pretorian's picture

Watch out UK story developing! Referendum underway to exit EU.


GeneMarchbanks's picture

It won't help them(uk). They're not even worth capitalizing... Barclay's is so derivative entrenched that the unwind will be epic. Get yourself ready for some more larson. Petty and otherwise.

criticaster's picture

Oh yea!!!! Quick... BUY GOLD! But No. There is no referendum. Tonight MPs in the house of commons are voting on whether or not to hold a referendum. This motion will not be passed because Labour and Lib Dems will not support it and the Tory party have imposed a three-line-whip on their MPs (i.e. there will be severe career-harming injunctions against rebels). It is expected that there will be around 70 yes votes, which will not carry the motion.

Hence it is more of a symbolic attack on Cameron by the euro-sceptics. Also, IMO it would be kind of a bad time for the UK to exit the EU (this is why they are imposing such a strict voting directive).


jdelano's picture

I'm just gonna go ahead and put this out there.  CAT is practicing inventory and accounting fraud.     

TradingJoe's picture

I agree, but not just CAT!

jdelano's picture

Guess American companies have learned a few new tricks from the Chinese these past few years...

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Actually, the opposite but thanks for playing.

jdelano's picture

<----Back to the dugout, scowling.    



Everybodys All American's picture

This admin has made this sort of thing passe. You actually think the banks are solvent? Why would another firm decide they have to play by the rules that no bankis are playing by?

iinthesky's picture

Just curious, how do you know that?

jdelano's picture

to "iinthesky"?  Hell no.  Visions of men in black piling out of suburbans and torching my condo.  Forget I said it.  

iinthesky's picture

Funny thing is.. based on things ive read and seen ie. Swat teams acting as student loan collection agents, Apple sending the corporate gestapo over leaked iphone data etc.. I dont blane you

jdelano's picture

also OT--anybody notice that the Ambrose piece over the weekend was definitely not written by Ambrose?  

lapedochild's picture

Greece CDS is the only one retreating, probably because it's being revealed as a useless tool. There is now talk of banks having to take a 50% "voluntary" haircut, thereby not triggering a credit event. They have offered 40% (up from 21%) but IMF won't go ahead if they do not at least take 50%, and they have to say it's voluntarty nonetheless!

This is making a complete mockery of the CDS market in my view. So yes, stress increases, CDS's go up, but when time comes to pay, we will change the rules.


ZeroPower's picture

Meh, the CDS basically implies 100% p of default. So, a point less here or there really doesnt matter. Its just the dealers working their inventory which sometimes moves the spread a point +/-

msmith's picture

Although the EU continues to have problems, the USD is likely headed lower for the short term.  The EURUSD and the AUDUSD are both pointing to a weaker USD this morning, which should push equities higher.

TooBearish's picture

Fear mongering...project Mayhem.... BUY

HardlyZero's picture
Vatican calls for global authority on economy, raps “idolatry of the market”


Italian job ?

ivars's picture

This was a productive weekend!

I think I finally managed to match them! Of course, crash (mimicking recession in q1 2012 in the USA and probaly worldwide) is there for all to be seen:

Now I have a really superb forecasting /history study interest tool . Have a look at exercise behind matching GREAT DEPRESSION and GREAT RECESSION timelines for the first time ( once  I managed to patternalize ( ?) OUT FED's grip on USA stock market prices)  and, as usual, better visibility charts plus explanations here:

And here:

The supplement chart for rereading the history of GREAT DEPRESSION and rethinking the future as time line can be extended as well:

campag's picture

Fed up waiting for Stocks to follow and head down . Should happen but......

is BTFD back ?

mayhem_korner's picture



How many Euros are in the ECB's sovereign CDS bailout fund?  Prolly not 'nuff. :D

Watson's picture

Why is Italy 70bps over Spain?

Italy exports a wide range of manufactured goods (bought world-wide for style if not reliability).
They did not (to my knowledge) have a property bubble.

Spain has had the mother of all real-estate bubbles, well beyond the ability of the domestic banking system to write down, and exports mainly fruit.

Reflection on the Italian leader?


slewie the pi-rat's picture

we now have our zero-ween theme:  

Tyler & The Triangle Of Terror

the subplot?  who will be fornicated next, BiCheZ?