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Europe's Economic Implosion In One Chart

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The chart below, courtesy of Stone McCarthy, shows monthly exports to Europe. It says enough.

From SMRA:

Following consecutive monthly gains, Exports to Europe dropped a massive $4.0 billion in April, the largest monthly decline dating back to January 2005, including a $2.8 billion drop to the EU alone. In particular, Exports to Germany declined $0.4 billion in April and are now only up about 0.2% over the past year. Overall, Exports to Europe are now down 2.7% from April 2011, the first yearly decline since February 2010. The recent slowdown of Exports to Europe supports the FOMC assessment that sluggish economic growth in Europe is likely to affect trade with the US. 

...

The easing of export growth does not bode well for US economy.

And since records before 2005 show more of the same, one can simply say that exports to Europe had their biggest monthly drop ever.

But don't worry: Greece Europe is irrelevant.

 

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Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:49 | 2547118 falak pema
falak pema's picture

now compare it to imports to the USA...I wonder.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:52 | 2547143 falak pema
falak pema's picture

wow, this is like Athens coming...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:01 | 2547196 SilverTree
Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:57 | 2548208 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

Athens already came...oh, wait, I see what you mean.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:37 | 2547386 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Barclays also freezes just before payday too!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:08 | 2547237 Linus2011
Linus2011's picture

Germany is preparing to sue Goldman Sachs in NY for $ 500 billion because of its criminal activities in Greece. Furthermore it is taking action to get its 3000 tons of gold back from the US.

 

 

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:13 | 2547251 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

The Goldman part made me happy.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:17 | 2547266 Linus2011
Linus2011's picture

.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:14 | 2547267 Linus2011
Linus2011's picture

why not the rest anymore?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:47 | 2548444 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I'm figuring the German gold is WW2 booty. If not then we are holding it for them so they don't have it to use for another war.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 16:35 | 2548668 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

German Au in the USA cannot possibly be WW2 booty.

The gold at the NY Fed is far more pure (and soft) than the stuff melted down from old jewelry and fillings, AND the Fed gold didn't come from Europe.  It simply shifted country lockers in the basement on the NY Fed, after monopoly money (I mean Euro-denominated bonds) traded hands on the desk upstairs.

Now, the German Au in Swiss banks may be another story...gotta check the tungsten level in those bars.

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:20 | 2547306 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Goldman will lose the gold in its vaults and will be left with only Man on his nameplate....Lloyd will have to find a new label to push his cart. Shitman? Squidman? All ideas welcome! As long as its not new Lehman or Layman! 

As for Timmy, once the Merkel has recovered her gold from FOrt Knox, he will  feel much lighter under the belt; a bit like Ben who is already in levitation, as all his crown jewels have long been shorted out from his pants! 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:30 | 2547361 Linus2011
Linus2011's picture

why do you guys thinks everyone was so calm and friendly to germany after G20?

one word from merkel about Gold, Target2, ESM etc. and the party (which is mostly financed by the german taxpayer) is over.

"you either shut the f*** up and smile immediately when the press is in and all during the next 2 days, or we are out"

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:57 | 2548491 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Goldman will lose the gold in its vaults and will be left with only Man on his nameplate...."

Even worse will be what's left of the firm's full name, and the implications of that on its logos, etc.: Man Sachs...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:36 | 2547381 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Germany is preparing to sue a company because of something the company has done in a third country?
Yeah right.. But they still have a better chance of accomplishing that than getting their gold back from the US, methinks.

I read German government wants that the EU quickly intros the financial transaction tax. Angela Merkel screw you.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:59 | 2548511 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Germany is preparing to sue a company because of something the company has done in a third country?
Yeah right.."

Mebbe it'll be heard by the "World Court" in the Hague...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:05 | 2547525 Gazooks
Gazooks's picture

upcoming news flash of unfortunate 3k ton boating accident

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:40 | 2548153 The Reich
The Reich's picture

bs

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:22 | 2547319 Arrrr
Arrrr's picture

The market has bottomed. Also, it's into leather and spanking.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:49 | 2547122 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thar she blows goes.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:51 | 2547136 sosoome
sosoome's picture

Thar she gone.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:53 | 2547152 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Dont matter, US markets decoupling from Europe, China, Oil prices and earnings warnings and every sensible logic.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:39 | 2547881 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Autarky bitches!

go long horses...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:49 | 2547125 financial apoca...
financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

shit happens

Europe is fine LTRO 3 should be coming any day now

then they can actually start lending and people will start buying

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:50 | 2547129 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Thank God for decoupling.  According to CNBS, it works both ways.  :)

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:09 | 2547240 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yes, thanks to the astute leadership of Uncle Ben Shalom, lil Timmy G, and Legs Dimon, we here in America are saved.

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:49 | 2547130 WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

If there was only one lesson they should have gotten from The Great Depression, it would have been on preventing contagion.

Instead, we have the most interlinked and intertwined economy ever.

The circadian rhythm of history is growing loud in our ears.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:51 | 2547134 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

IBEX 35 keeps making higher highs.

 

Looks to me that Europe stocks have bottomed.

Too hard to resist stocks like Repsol which now yields 8.9%, Total yields 6.7%, etc.

Heh, who wants the German Bund at zero interest rate?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:53 | 2547148 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The IBEX is an unstoppable ripfest juggernaut:

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:59 | 2547183 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

That moment when someone in the room gives the perfect comeback, and nothing else can be said.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:05 | 2547203 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

 

Robo, You just got knocked the fuck out!

 

 

http://youtu.be/q36uaSlf0ck

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:21 | 2547318 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

still.....robo's got the best avatar

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:34 | 2547375 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

You can't judge a dumb-ass by his avatar.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:40 | 2547395 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Now FUCK OFF!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:16 | 2547281 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ouch. That's gonna leave a mark.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:19 | 2547301 css1971
css1971's picture

Push the chart back another couple of years. If you check the current low is lower than the 08/09 crash. 60% down. This is where the DOW, S&P and FTSE are heading but the IBEX & MIB are already there.

I'm with Robotrader & starting to pick up targets.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:39 | 2547396 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

You assume that 08/09 levels are the lowest it can go.  Keep dreaming.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 17:07 | 2548800 css1971
css1971's picture

I'm averaging in, so further drops are welcome too.

"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own"

My assumption is about human nature.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:20 | 2547311 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It makes my day to see Tyler school a troll.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:28 | 2547353 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Preview of what is to come to the SnP 500.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:02 | 2547510 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Take the ibex chart in weekly form back to 1990. Beautiful trend line of support off 94 and 96 highs to 2003 and 2009 lows just broke a few weeks back into ok a stab at it at support but got stopped out. To me it is HUGE technical damage and shoul be joining Greece on the 90% rack soon.

Goo luck owning Spain for longer than a few days.

I agree. It is a preview for the sp and rest of world still on a crack high.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:54 | 2547150 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Eveyone is prone to the same delusional thinking that should things turn down, they will be first out. I say good luck with that.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:55 | 2547159 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Bottomed? Where is the diaper tho?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:55 | 2547164 Cleverbot
Cleverbot's picture

That is an interesting thought. You have perplexed me.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:59 | 2547185 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Robos been looking at the charts with a mirror....hes also colorblind. he sees red as green and vice versa.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:08 | 2547234 Hulk
Hulk's picture

and gasoline keeps getting cheaper. Hell, according to Robo, they be givin it away in LA !!!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:50 | 2547691 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Respect the troll! He managed to even troll in Tyler. Robo loves the attention with MDB, its some Borat style shit. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:50 | 2547135 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Batten the hatches, hug your loved ones, we are in for an exponental ride...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:49 | 2547946 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

hold me?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:51 | 2547137 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Help is on the way!

China's Central Bank Willing To Share $3 Trillion

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/06/20/chinas-central-bank-willing-to-share-3-trillion/

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:13 | 2547261 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

sure, but only with other BRICs.  Now its starting to feel like an episodoe of Survivor...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:51 | 2547141 CreativeDestructor
CreativeDestructor's picture

This sucker's going' down

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:07 | 2547232 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

With the VIX just sitting there I took the opportunity to double down on my shorts.

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:52 | 2547146 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

Thats obviously not the European Chart on "Bullshit exports" cause those exports are off the charts....

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:56 | 2547166 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

so at least the helsinki formula is still selling then?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:56 | 2547160 OhOh
OhOh's picture

At least the EU has some positive months. The US has been running a US$50 to US$60 billion per month deficit for years.

 

http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/ustrade.html

The old credit card trick eh.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:55 | 2547167 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

How does this market not drop like a rock?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:05 | 2547217 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This "market" is still holding ut hope for QE. It won't come unless the "market " gives up the ghost. There won't be a liquidation event until the margin calls start.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:56 | 2547170 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Hard to be bearish with names like Wells Fargo, Regions, SunTrust holding up well.

If Europe was going to get worse, these stocks would be cratering.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:02 | 2547202 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

Thanks for the tip on who to short!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:04 | 2547214 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Starting to drop

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:53 | 2547711 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Do you go to support groups and fake illnesses for sympathy, or do you just need attention? Admit your MDB/Robo/Max, and unite my theory.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:57 | 2547175 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

What is the US even exporting?  iCrap?  I'm sure Apple will survive, just have to helicopter some more student loans.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:58 | 2547178 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

This chart must be wrong as the weakened dollar is our salvation in the form of higher exports! /sarc

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:00 | 2547188 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Wells Fargo is holding up because they announce outsourcing to India and Phillipines...more of why multi-national profits are holding up because they really feel no responsibility to the American people - I am talking to you Warren.  This chart does say it all and I am not sure even ECB bond buys will forestall this now...may take an emergency powers act to allow them unlimited printing to handle their issues

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:00 | 2547192 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

http://www.businessinsider.com/german-flash-pmi-2012-6#ixzz1yR63UbkY

The German Economy Has Cracked

 

Steepest drop in German private sector output for three years. Euro crisis leads to survey-record monthly fall in service providers’ business outlook.

Germany is going down down down...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:05 | 2547218 Alejandrito
Alejandrito's picture

Germany, most likely, enter into technical recession in the third quarter.

http://agstock.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/germany-will-go-into-recession-in....

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:25 | 2547342 Linus2011
Linus2011's picture

official lying bullshit numbers since about 2 years.

stocks are sold short on purpose and general "official" perception is down whereas the economy especially here in south germany is exploding, not imploding.

you may wanna call that crack up boom. however you guys you don't really know what is going on at all!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:10 | 2547249 falak pema
falak pema's picture

No thats Merkel going down down down to the "beggars can be choosers" club-med shills. She has to save their faces in the usual hooker-liner-sinker way,  before cutting off their family jewels later in the year. Its called Euro protocol and its very social in its calling! 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:02 | 2547201 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

How about exports from the rest of the world instead of just USA to Europe?  What percent of European imports are from USA anyway?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:15 | 2547276 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I work for an international consumer products firm with factories in both the US of A and Europe.  These factories have identical capabilities, more or less.  Anecdotally, we are certainly selling more US-produced goods into Europe than the other way round, the flow is increasing out of the USA into Europe.  That in my mind could explain the month-over-month amplification in the graph above, as markets are refreshed with new product seasonally / periodically. 

The rationale in my company's increasing of USA->Europe flow of goods is that it is becoming less expensive, in fact less complicated, to ship into Europe than to produce there for markets there.  Our supply chains, specifically in France, Spain, and Italy, are cumbersome, bureaucratic shitpiles compared to our supply chain here in the US, which is more adaptable to changes in the market.  There is a ridiculous tax overhang in France, cultural complications in France, and don't get me started with Italy.  We have recently shifted corporate headquarters to Switzerland - from France - for tax reasons. 

So while the month over month is widening in spread, this indicates to me a sheer increase in the amount of product that Europe is importing from the US overall, that you would see amplification.  

I am analyst, never took one business course in a fascist US Sandusky-university, I am in gold and silver and land.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:16 | 2547282 Miss America
Miss America's picture

It tells us nothing!  Well if I look at this EXACT SAME CHART (and let's go back in time and pretend it's May of 2011...)  this chart would tell me that everything is ROBUST.  May 2011 exports to Europe are off the charts good.  So that means things in EU are looking great. 

This chart means nothing.

Sorry. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:33 | 2547371 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I would disagree that "it means nothing".  It means US export to Europe is increasing overall.  The little bar on top of that little line gets higher, the little bar below the middle line gets lower.  It has to soar before it dives.

But who knows what drives it, besides "everything".  Egypt militarizing - the Suez Canal that passes raw materials and semi-finished product from China is located where?  France socializing = high tax environment. Spain & Italy hinting at regression to autocracies.  The list is endless.  Businesses forecasting cheap dollars, taking out loans from Benny to expand operations in the US.  Any number of things drives it but all in all, it does mean something.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:02 | 2547738 falak pema
falak pema's picture

it all depends what you are wearing; perception changes when in a bikini to an evening dress.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:24 | 2547328 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

Off-topic, but I just received an email from RP asking for petition support for the upcoming legislative vote on the Audit the Fed bill in July.  It strikes me that Congressional anxiety might be rising with deteriorating economic data and support might suffer as a result.  Reactions?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:34 | 2547377 Linus2011
Linus2011's picture

buy silver instead!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:24 | 2547334 WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

Did y'all hear about that guy language professors HATE?? Yeah, I guess he has this one sneaky trick that lets you learn a language in 10 days. Seriously!

I swear to god, the banner ads on ZH are fuggin' ridiculous. Except for the Snorgtees girls, of course.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:46 | 2547428 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

There's a scam for EVERYTHING!...Soon you'll see ads for cancer cures......the 'Cancer Cure Doctor' all other doctors hate....lmao.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:31 | 2547368 hankwil74
hankwil74's picture

Just buy gold!!!

 

Oh wait... gold's down $40 today.... uh.... plan B-buy a farm in Panama

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:37 | 2547387 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Buy gold and expect to weather dives.  The deeper it dives, the higher it bounces.  BTFD FYB.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:36 | 2547380 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

"A joyful heart is good medicine, but a crushed spirit dries up the bones."

 

some say.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:50 | 2547686 covert
covert's picture

the global economic conspiracy against Liberty tightens.

http://covert.ias3.com/expose/

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:16 | 2547557 amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

Just imagine what this is doing to China. And people debate a hard v. soft landing. How about a crash landing? How's that sound?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:41 | 2548413 localpacific
localpacific's picture

good chart ZH another one for EUR/USD etc Forex4you Technical Analysis

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 17:59 | 2548937 elwu
elwu's picture

"one can simply say that exports to Europe had their biggest monthly drop ever."

Ah. So?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:23 | 2553649 SeniorD
SeniorD's picture

I like the analogy of Driving a Hot Car FAST, Running on Empty, going downhill, with lots of maxed out credit cards in your pocket, yelling WHEE, listeneing to (Can't Get No) Satisfaction!

 

Lots of folks are now pointing fingers but everyone knows that "this" will not last for very long...

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