This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Europe's Energy Costs See Biggest Two Month Jump Ever
Between a weaker EUR and Middle-East tensions, Europe faces a very significant (and real) drag on its economic performance. Forget the 'grow our way out of it' or 'believe-me' memes, the crude reality (that we warned about last week) is that the cost of buying spot Brent Crude in Euros is very close to record highs, above 2008 highs and most worryingly, has seen the biggest rise on record in the last two months. For those wondering what the trade-off is to Mario Monti's pointless blustering and scorched-earth hostage tactics at the June 29 Summit, just look at the 'Total' line item, the next time you gas up.
Spot Brent crude priced in Euros - record two-month rise (lower pane) and very near-record high overall...
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 6246 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Who is John Galt?
Do any of you actually believe that we still have any petroleum reserves left?
So how long do you think we can keep the lights on for?
Considering that a very small fraction of electricity is generated with oil in NA, I would say quite a while....
oil? All i need is a shovel and i can dig it out of the ground for $10. hahaha
Olde but goode
CHEAP OIL IS OVER... THIS SPELLS BAD NEWS FOR THE GOLD MINERS
Well, it looks like AVAILABLE NET OIL EXPORTS peaked in 2005... and we just go downhill from here. Even though overall global liquid production may be at a current peak, net exports only decline further from here.
According to Jeffrey Brown, calculating a mere 1% annual decline rate in global oil production until 2020, AVAILABLE NET OIL EXPORTS (minus China & India) decline from 35mbd in 2010 to 16-17 mbd by 2020. It doesn't get more SOBERING than that.
THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR THE BIG GOLD MINERS
I am currently doing research on the fuel (diesel) consumption of the top 8 gold miners, and let me tell you.... the overall trend is a DOUBLE IN DIESEL CONSUMPTION PER GALLON PER OUNCE OF GOLD in the past 6 years:
For example:
BARRICK 2005 gallons of diesel per oz of gold = 15.4 gallons / oz
BARRICK 2012 gallons of diesel per oz of gold = 29.0 gallons / oz
Most of the other top gold miners have either doubled or increased their diesel consumption significantly per oz of gold production in the past 6 years.
ARTICLE TO BE OUT IN SEPT
But the price of gold has more than doubled since 2005 as well.
europeeons are broker and broker, courteous of your friendly, local madman....errrr, central liar. central printer. central fuck. central pig. central douchebag. you pick.
Politicians (when they're not on vacation which makes problems go away by the way) and pundits love to explain that a weak currency makes people rich ... well, except when you have to pay for things.
Bye bye temporary GDP recovery.
Luckily most citizens in Europe can walk from one side of their country to the other in 4 hours...
True, but they can't carry food for millions on their backs.
Trucks feed cities, and they burn oil.
Until they can't get enough to burn. Then the cities aren't fed.
Trains, trams, canals.
Then there are new technologies like UltraPRT starting to appear.
Most European cities are pre-automobile. Which becomes blindingly obvious when you try to drive through one.
And seriously, cars here are more 'toys', with our superb and quite cheap public transport
In Belgium it is extremely inexpensive to have monthly or yearly free passes where you ride all means of public transport in the region for free, without limit
We have long had what Americans see as $8 or $10 per gallon gasoline ... using litres and euros here of course ... but this is decades-old policy to keep cities livable, discourage suburban sprawl and incentivise use of public transport
And it works very well, even supporting democracy ... people live together in cities and towns and can get together to demonstrate and riot on short notice
STFU - you NATO occupied troll.
either he is a troll - then junk and ignore - or you have a point to make, in which case I'm waiting, my precioussssssss... <need a fight, need a fight>
Tell me why you would get it, Ghordius Van Damme?
Brussels Guy and you probably work out at the same Eurofag gym in matching bike tights.
LOL, that made my day, thanks - I was thinking more about a fight here, perhaps about urban sprawl or something
I find Brussels extremely boring and dull, you could not hold me there. And I agree, Brussels Guy has a "feminine touch" when he talks about his city... harharhar
If the dude gets any more full of himself, he won't fit through the bank door.
...now you owe me a keyboard...
@NEOSERF:
Well, that'll change soon, when all of Europe becomes one country, under one leadership and one currency. Ein Volk, Ein Reich und Ein Fuhrer! Sieg Heil! (a wave of epileptic convulsions going through the rabid masses)
and your evidence for this trend is...? do you have a timeline?
Me? No man, I have no evidence. I'm just messin' around. What the hell do I know.
you mean I know nuffin', gov'nor? there was an English joke about that...
Yup, just drove past a Repsol garage 20 minutes ago and was surprised to see Diesel at Euro 1.50/litre
In early 2007 it was 1.00/litre.
Spain is in deeeep caca.
.
See if they would only print faster they could get out ahead of these little blibs in energy prices before anyone even notices.
They will ban Oil SHORT selling if they dont like it . Oh no they will ban all LONG positions....lol
Is this why stocks are up today? I don't understand...
DavidC
Stocks are up because the world hasn't caught up to realizing that there is no longer a market.
Just ignore it. Buy farmland. It's the only thing that will still have value in 5-10 yrs.
Austerity+Inflation=<GDP> They might just as well start handing out the pills because the pain has only just begun...
Energy hits Europeans harder now than it once did, they adopted a love affair with the automobile and have not looked back for decades.
The UK for example was paved over in great leaps, as was Sweden. People used to rely on public transport, now as many as possible drive instead.
Fill up your car in the UK or Sweden, Ouch! But at least the drive distances are shorter than in the USA. ANd cars tend to get good milage. In Sweden I drove a little VW and yes it was expensive to fill, but once full I drove for weeks before another fill up!
Just filled my RAV4 here in the USA, it was pretty steep expense and my driving distances here are pretty long. 25 miles to a decent store, the same for Doc and dentists.
NeoFeudalism
Neoconservativism, neo liberalism, neofashism, neocommunism ... just different names for the same thing.
Redundant, all fiats are losing value. What is oil priced in gold, bitchez.
the new world order is the old world order
kleptocratic plutocracy, now with borg velociraptors drones, and extra liquidity!
and the energy value of corn.... talk about a tight spot when USDA estimating sub mandated levels of ethanol usage with ethanol at discount to RBOB...
http://commodmarkets.com/2012/08/14/corn-rationing/
Money printing will get you inflation. Success! The people should be happy. It was all done to save them you know.
WTI Oil is retracing - has some upside around $98 per barrel. Wave 3 down will likely follow.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-wti-oil-daily-august-15-2012/
Finally. Thx ZH.
The only thing that actually matters is the crude oil price.
Crude oil price higher, economy goes shit
Crude oil price lower, economy rebounds.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
When people believe crap like that there is a trillion barrels of oil off limits in the US, it is amazing what they can come up with when trying to rationalize things....
There is plenty of oil available in Iran and the sanctions hurt the European economies more than they hurt the Iranian.
Hey. I thought the (pick one)
a) Saudis
b) Iraqis
c) Little Green Men on Titan
d) All of the above
was going to replace those Iranian exports?
Whocoudanode???
There's two kinds of demand:
1) Consumption
2) Storage
Everybody knows number 1 has been going lower and lower, hence number 2 remains until everybody's storage is full and they have to unload. No different from 2008-2009.
Iran's ground storage is full and offshore storage is half full based on what I read recently.
China is storing and storing and storing.
Cushing is almost spilling over.
The time will come, guaranteed.
Here is Cushing
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK_MBBL&f=W
And is the total stocks excluding the SPR
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTESTUS1&f=W
Cushing is about 4%.....
Ummm..... Do you want to rephrase what you said?
Ok, there's more space. I am at work and can't focus on the charts you linked.
How long can they continue like this?
(I did NOT down you, below).
Would you like me to post links to the OECD stocks as well?
Your claim about 2008 is dead wrong....
How long can they continue what exactly??
----
(PS I don;t give a flying fuck about up or down arrows...)
Ah ok. OECD data!
This is like data from China or from BLS. Random data generator. Even Cushing data is just by WH order.
How can there be drops in storage when the demand is lower?
A private crude oil trader can store at Cushing maintaing ownership of the crude oil. Only when the ownership is transferred, is the data reported as increase of crude storage.
Umm... do you know where the OECD data comes from?
Hey, if Cushing is just what the WH says it is, why didn't W. step in duing '08???
You can have drops in storage if supply drops greater than demand...
Or did you think that oil production can only increase????
Did you also know that the amount of crude on the market is down ~10% since 2005?
Oh I see where is the disagreement.
I believe no data, none whatsoever. Data is out there in order to mislead to lure suckers.
I always check that data with feedback from other sources on the internet.
But again, if your investing is based on that data, it's your choice.
Ok. Thx for the debate. Very enjoyable.
What do you think happened in 2008?
There some clues here (notice the dates):
http://gregor.us/oecd/days-of-our-supply/
http://gregor.us/iea/demand-noise-fresh-oil-data-from-iea-paris/
To make a long story short, in 07 to early 08, the worlds economy was running on a drawdown of stocks, i.e. oil was being consumed faster than it was being produced...
Thats all, I gotta run...
Thx for the debate. Very enjoyable.
While not Brent related, here is an awesome article on the BHP takeover of Petrohawk and an overview of CHK
Shale Gas Assets: Overpriced or a Liquid Turn for Mining Giant BHP?
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9397
I guess that sometimes things aren't always what they were fracked up to be??
It's really VERY easy - and what WILL happen, especially when a Eurozone-wide Tobin Tax is firmly in place:
Japan no longer wishes the Yen to be the "funding currency."
Europe wants the Euro to be the "funding currency."
And the US needs to become a major energy exporter again - and one way or the other, it will.
Energy becomes THE bargaining chip for smart conservatives in the (inevitable) second Obama administration. Yes, we need - and will get - relief on investment-oriented taxes, too. But it is Energy on which we should push hard, against the childish and Elitist Ultra-greens, who are brothers and sisters under the skin to the most Elitist and obstructive supply-siders.
Energy growth.
Infrastructure growth.
Both.
Compromises from the intransigent Elitists on both the Left and Right.
And BIG compromises from the Currency World.
Yo Ven...
Learn to edit out your whitespace...
The US has zero chance of becoming a net energy exporter.... Zilch
Improvements in ability to export LNG plus substitution of CNG for gasoline throughout US economy - and much more, not less, high-speed rail and other infrastructure to lure Americans out of their cars! Yes, of course, it is possible.
Transportation is one area in which the US desperately needs to be more like Europe and most of the rest of the world - not the opposite.
Think of your last European trip. Did you drive at all? I didn't. And soon, you won't need to in China, India, or any number of other places.
Gotta run... will reply later
I'm back, 2 basic questions:
Is the US currently a Net Importer or Exporter of NG???
Replacing 10% of domestic oil use would require increasing NG production by how much??