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Europe's Three Ring Circus

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Mark Grant author of Out Of The Box

The Three Ring Circus

 

The Golden Rule of the Marketplace

“He who has the Gold; Rules.”

This simple little proverb and what it means will help you to understand what is going on in Europe presently. It will also help to keep you out of trouble as various headlines are flashed across your screen and you either scramble to get out of their way or make some valiant effort to grab on to them as they squiggle past. The European Union has become a tripartite system which is divided into the European Parliament which thinks that a United States of Europe has already been established and they are in charge, the troubled and about to be troubled nations that are scheming, planning and writing wishful theses in an effort to wrestle even more money from Germany and the financially sound nations and finally Germany and her allies that, while dispensing some charity, are determined not to have their borrowing costs rise or their standard of living fall. It is three distinct groups now and they should be viewed in this fashion so you can appreciate what is real, what will likely happen, what is important and what are just fanciful notions tossed about to gather more money from those nations that have it.

First and foremost; nothing is happening in the European Union without the agreement of Germany. They have the gold and they will make the rules regardless of the words bandied about proclaiming brotherly love and the solidarity of the European nations. This is all drivel, just politics and a subject that can be ignored as you concentrate on what is really important. When Germany speaks, on a scale of 1-10 with 10 being the most important; Germany is a 10 and the only 10 on the Continent. I would rate the importance of the French statements at an 8 now heading to 7 and then the Netherlands, Austria, Finland at a 7 while the fluff coming from the bailed out nations at 1 or 2 and Spain and Italy at a 3 or 4. The statements from this or that high mucky-mucky in the European Parliament carry a weighting of 3 and their grand plans of an integrated Europe that they can rule has a value of about 1.5; good for flag raising, speeches to 6th graders and the like but of no real importance.

I think it can be said with accuracy that nothing of importance and I mean nothing will be happening in Europe unless Ms. Merkel agrees and that is just that. This is why that each time some grand design is laid on the table and some new summit to end all summits and each new silver bullet play is brought out and waved like a magic potion that can cure all of the ills of Europe that nothing happens. Germany would have to foot most of the bill and Germany will not do it and if the boys want to muck around in the sandbox that is all fine, let them amuse themselves, but Germany will decide what is what and nothing else matters; really. If you understand all of this, if you get the joke here, you will not wander around making stupid bets and supposing that the headlines generated by Barroso or Van Rumpoy have any real significance; they do not. Of even less significance are the calls in the wild made by the Spanish Prime Minister or any personage in Ireland or Portugal; gasps for breath, prayers in the Chapel heard by no one; the asking for alms disguised as dreams of “more Europe” which is little more than “more gruel if you please sir.”

And now; a little game of “Chicken”

So Greece has a new government and they will be trotting off to Berlin soon. To describe this process as “hat in hand” is an understatement. The three members of the Greek coalition have sat in Athens and devised schemes which I am sure include feint and shuffle plays that are all intended to accomplish one purpose and one purpose only; to get more money out of Germany. They will try “good guy and bad guy” and threats of Default and European harmony and brotherhood and whatever else might work. The Greeks have been doing this for the last one hundred years so they have some skills here but, in the end, it will all get down to money.

The Germans, while they are politely waiting for the Greeks to show up have made their own calculations which one hopes are correct and not based upon the Ponzi numbers that Europe distributes to the rest of us. If Germany believes and acts upon its own jargon then the game will turn out badly as Germany will draw the line in the sand too early and not get the consequences of default right. Greece is a little country with a giant debt that totals approximately $1.3 trillion and small nation or not the size of the debt and the consequences of default are considerable. So the Greeks will beg, plead, threaten, become hysterical and do anything else they can think of to get at the cash while the Germans, with that resolute frown of which they are more than capable of placing upon their Teutonic faces, will calculate the costs and then, at some point during the discussion, make a decision based mostly upon economics but partially upon what is politically possible to get re-elected and then it will be checkmate.

The outcome of this game will center upon if the Germans are willing to give them more money and enough new money to continue on or whether they will not. Extensions of timelines and somewhat easier terms are totally irrelevant now. The Greeks cannot pay back their debts under any circumstances and it will all get down to new money or no new money which can be translated as a bigger debt and the continuation of the tail wagging the dog. It would have to be debt forgiveness and another round of cash to kick this can down the road any further and if the Germans say “Nein” then Greece will have no choice but to default and head back to the Drachma as the only choice that is left to them whether they like it or not. Perhaps Greece remains as one of the EU-27 and not the EU-17 and gets a handout as part of the package but unless the new money is significant; Greece cannot proceed the way thing are because they are virtually out of cash and they have robbed every Peter for Paul in their country to keep themselves afloat to this point. Who was elected in Greece was but a sideshow; the meeting in Berlin is where the cards will get played!

The world is now looking at Spain and Italy thinking that the election was the matter of importance but they are wrong. That event was really nothing more than whether a more or less friendly group of people would be heading off to the people that control the counting house. Nothing more than that. The big event, the really big show is just about to take place now and very few are paying attention as everyone has sighed and turned away and that is a huge mistake in my opinion. It is down to debt forgiveness and more money or default and this is where the holding of breath should begin; the elections were little more than a side show at the carnival of European politics.

The third ring of the circus having now been observed we are about to enter the main stage where the antics of the clowns will hopefully not release the lions and tigers and bears; oh my.

 

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Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:20 | 2546431 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Germany is not going to destroy their economy to support stupid and lazy greeks, spanish, italians, portuguese,irish, french. He who has the gold, makes the rules.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:23 | 2546442 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Colombian Gringo

"Germany is not going to destroy their economy to support stupid and lazy greeks, spanish, italians, portuguese,irish, french."

Strikes me as the justifications for previous German wars.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:26 | 2546458 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Apart from all the other reasons why that's bunk, why do people ignore the existence of ICBMs when making such daft statements?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:30 | 2546466 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Greece default, Germany you should run away, run fast because you too will be in the cross hairs of the bond market soon. Run dog run.......

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:30 | 2546711 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I wasn't aware that Greece, Spain, Portugal, or Italy had ICBM's. Seems like Germany doesn't have to worry about that angle with its Euro debtors.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:34 | 2546471 YuropeanImbecille
YuropeanImbecille's picture

Anyone who thinks that Merkel has the german people in mind when taking decisions is a idiot of rank.

 

She sees the germans as willing slaves that work their asses of to feed the zionist-satanist empire they are trying to build. the EUSSR shall be a glorious machine of pure zionist-satanism that will rule the world if the US of A goes down the drain.

 

If that means kill millions in war, or tax them to death, she and the rest of "our" leaders do not give a flying F.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:37 | 2546475 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Zionist-Satanist Empire, wow, sounds like a great movie title. /sarc

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:46 | 2546774 OttoMBMP
OttoMBMP's picture

Up arrow deserved for the first sentence.

Could not give it to you, because the rest of your statement is antisemitic BS.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:46 | 2547423 Matt
Matt's picture

Anti-Zionist is not Anti-Semitic, they are two different things.

Just like how one could be Anti-Nazi without being anti-Germanic, or anti-American Empire without being Anti-American.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:31 | 2547598 Lebensphilosoph
Lebensphilosoph's picture

Up arrow deserved for the first sentence.

Couldn't give it to you, because the rest of your statement is philosemitic BS.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:45 | 2546501 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

The banksters are screwing the europeans,for sure, but why should Germans retire at 65 so that Greeks and French can retire at 50 and 60-62? Why should germans lower their quality of life for a group of people who simply do not care to improve themselves. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:52 | 2546541 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

To think...Germany in one clean swoop can wipe out the Goldmans, Warrburgs, Rothschilds et al.  I'm sure that hasn't crossed thier mind

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:01 | 2546584 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 Speaking of sterotypes,

don't forget the one about the "Americans"

(excepting everywhere but in the USA)

being so rich only because they are so, well ... exceptional

(especially the rich ones who make the rules)

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:06 | 2546601 smb12321
smb12321's picture

The arguments German acquiesence mirror those in the US whining for more spending.  "So you want to have kids suffer hunger, poverty, illiteracy, etc"   "You want to destroy the military"   "If we don't spend more you'll hurt the children (forgetting that it's THEIR money we're "borrowing").   "You want to hurt the elderly?"  "You're for bad housing and low wagers?"  "Why refuse to help prospective voters people when they need it the most?

Germany is told that unless she throws hundreds of billions down the black hole of such financially astute folks as Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain, their failure will be her fault.  Heard it all before. 

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:27 | 2546703 Nels
Nels's picture

Germany has already destroyed their wealth by loaning money to the PIIGS that will never be paid back.  Since their economy was based on building stuff to sell to the PIIGS, it's destruction is also baked into the cake. The only question is whether it's  a big smash now, or a huge smash later.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:21 | 2546437 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Europe is more like a one ringer with a tranvesttitte midget

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:25 | 2546449 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

the not so migh...

"tranvesttitte"

Did you merge Transvestite and titty?

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:51 | 2546538 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Long portmanteau, short the rest of French.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:22 | 2546441 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Germany is 10 !

You mean Merkel is now Bo Derek ! I can't buy that! 

So Hollande is Dudley Moore! That makes sense! 

http://www.epinett.com/etubes/video/g2a48mr3GQ0/She.html

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:24 | 2546448 Alejandrito
Alejandrito's picture

Germany will survive without Euro, Pigsians will not.

 

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:17 | 2546627 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Wrong.  They will do nicely - just not as industrial, exporting giants.  The rapid population losses have set their future as one of decline but in the meantime the PIGS can return to fun in the sun, ramp up tourism, serve wonderful food and export agricultural products.  

Italy will hopefully continue making the best shoes, cars and clothes in the world.  She is not a particularly huge spender (surpluses except for debt financing).  Rather, the problem is the loss of young people, the life blood of any society.  (Yes, I do love Italy.)

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:25 | 2546452 falak pema
falak pema's picture

watch out for the Merkel boomerang! 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:28 | 2546462 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

germany big question is how much will a new dmark appreciate..and when it does will it get so strong as to destroy their export capabilities..but with most of europe in a recession ther own self interests are going to come to bear..plus i think they are secretly shorting the euro..knowi g that when they deicide to leave it will got to 80..so why not make some money on the carnge you now have control over..

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:16 | 2546655 smb12321
smb12321's picture

I think the new "mark" will be the euro and the new EU will include Holland, Poland, Finland, Austria,Germany, Estonia,etc. The key is that members have similar fiscal policies and outlooks.  So France will be forced to go it alone again - unable to get into a strict union but unwilling to throw in her lot with the Med boys.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:41 | 2546479 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I don't know why they call it the EU when Germany calls all the shots. Even if every other country in the union wanted to do something Germany could still nix the deal. They should call it The Fourth Reich.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:43 | 2546491 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Its national Bankster cleansing week starting 1st week of July.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:48 | 2546513 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

  Germany will do this. Germany will do that.

Just who is this "Germany"?

Is it the government and is it different from all other western governments by escaping international corporate influence?

Is it the bankers, again supposedly apart from league of banksters?

Is "Germany" the military, wedded to NATO, and occupied by the US?

Instead,as I commented elsewhere at ZH:

"Germans will be told "their" prosperity depends on the euro. The deal will be framed as a minimal temporary sacrifice to get bigger future reward. The Germans will "blink" (as did the Greeks) and Merkel (or her replacement) will fall in line.

The French will be told some sacrifice is necessary to "save the euro" (for the banksters as Hollande has pledged to do), preserve European cooperation (especially NATO militarism as Hollande has also promised). The French will back Hollande as he mimics Obama and talks the talk for hope and "growth".

There is more financial control to be seized by, and more wealth to be squeezed out. The international power elite will not be deterred by rumblings of nationalism. In fact, they will use it to their advantage, both to deflect attention from themselves, and to channel fears of nationalistic excesses."

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:04 | 2546596 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

It is down to debt forgiveness and more money, or default; and this is where the holding of breath should begin...

Debt forgiveness is what a default is called when you don't break the welsher's legs...So what are Germany's options? Debt forgiveness means a deal. What can Greece give Germany in exchange? Not much it would seem. It is in Greece's best interest to default. It is in Germany's best interest to make a deal.

Any debt-forgiveness deal has to be a Rumplestiltskin-type deal- a future payment is more palatable politically for Greece, no matter how onerous. "Sure, you can have my first-born- I don't have one right now anyway!"

If the Germans are smart, they will design the Bruxelles bureaucracy so that a pan-European taxing authority is set up to benefit German coffers. That's the only way they'll get their money back. Otherwise, at the first twinge of real pain, Greece will bolt and leave Germany holding the bag.

Honestly, I think the real outcome will be more of the same dithering until Europe truly descends into madness and pandemonium. Why? Because this is reallly all just a set-up fpr the unleashing of the "atheists and the nihilists". Chaos must come before order can be restored along the old Rome (Vatican)- Berlin axis.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:48 | 2546519 Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

It's a good thing the history of Europe is not written in blood.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:25 | 2546690 d edwards
d edwards's picture

Probably this time it will be Italy, Spain, France etc. invading Germany cuz the Germans are the only ones with a functioning economy.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:11 | 2546628 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

"They have the gold"

No, they don't. It is all in New York. You can guess who makes the rules.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:21 | 2546674 frenchie
frenchie's picture

the (self proclamed) chosen ones ?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:22 | 2546679 d edwards
d edwards's picture

Re: the elections in France and Greece

 

Same circus, different clowns, and the Big Top is still on fire.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:01 | 2546859 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Everywhere I hear the sound of marching, charging feet, boy
Cause summers here and the time is right for fighting in the street, boy
...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:05 | 2546878 johny2
johny2's picture

The Europe is a great show, giving lots of food for thought for people like gringo above, who believe all the usual black and white explanations ( bad pigs! ). And while disunity of Europe show occupies small part of the news reserved for economy ( there are many other issues!)  United States of America are able to print the PAPER and exchange it for the oil.  

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:01 | 2548012 covert
covert's picture

will Germany cave or enslave? stay tuned.

http://covert.ias3.com/expose/

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!