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Is EURUSD 1.20 In The Cards?
Given both the ECB (we must give LTRO time to work) and the Fed (it would be reckless to risk inflation for a few jobs) appear to be disappointing the addicts in the equity markets, perhaps it is time to reflect on what the relative size of the Fed and ECB balance sheets say about the new normal fair-value for EURUSD. Given the current levels, it appears 1.20 is not such a leap of faith here. Or alternatively, assuming all else equal, the market is obviously still pricing $700 billion in more QE by the Fed.
Chart: Bloomberg
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That is extremely bearish for gold, since as we all know now, euro and gold are one and the same for most traders.
BTFD
at a buck twenty that could be quite a fukkin dip
BTFG - buy the fucken gold
Fixed that for you
A $1.20 price for the Euro sounds fair but only if the Euro survives which is a big big ask. Quit worrying about gold.......it has outlived every period of history, every fool, every king and every currency. The currency price of gold is simply an abstraction from the fundamentally broken debt system everyone is trying to prop up. Gold has held its own without props.
The Euro will of course survive but whether
ALL of its members will survive as well, that is the question
that must be answered with a simple: No.
Much more interesting I find whether Gold will hold at 1600.-
and whether WTi Crude will hold at 96.-... I somehow doubt it....
If Oil goes further down, it will take Gold with it...! :-)
And thats that to those who claim that Gold works in a deflationary scenario... lol
Yes, that is correct. Extremely bearish for gold. STFT (sell the f'ing top), which at 1600 it isn't, but at 1250, you'll wish you had. Gold always overshoots on the upside and over sells to the downside, therefor on this panic dump, I wouldnt be surprised to see it test the 1200 level from summer of 2010. We would have effectively given back all stimulus run-up from the August 2010 Fed QE injection. This is necessary for the next run up to 2000.00, since the FED will act once the S&P and DOW re-trace all that was gained from QE1/QE2. With gold consolidating to 1200 and the Euro breaking 1.20 down to 1.15 maybe, the Fed WILL act to weaken the dollar, which would have bounced to the upper 80's by then. This is the game. This is how its played, for years this tug of war will continue. It will obviously end badly, with most or all of the middle class getting raped in the process, but thats what will have to happen for the revolution to occur. We are 3-5 years away from this happening though. We haven't even hit the mass liquidation of European banks yet... wait till those days, these 40.00 down days in gold will be nothing... Once hedgies and banks start liquidating to pay redemption requests, its gonna get UGLY... Major volitility in the PM markets.
S&P 1350 holding for now.
Whoops. No longer.
I'm guessing the drop from DOW -200 to -300 will be real quick. There are a bunch of supports falling quickly. Time to cue the flashcrash algos.
So who gets to do the honors? Waddell? or Reed?
Although the VIX is up. I don't see any panic in the tape. I smell a rat.
Mostly retailers blowing the hell up right now. Furniture, UA, RGR, SWHC. A lot of huge down moves, does not bode well for the market overall
Time to change channels. I suggest the Cartoon Network.
No, not CNBC. The other Cartoon Network.
If they aren't careful they could lose controll of this real quick.
You mean, $1.20 on its way to parity?
They are just comparing worthless crap to more worthless crap.
A basket of shit.
Just don't put all your shit in the same basket.
'Cus.....well, you know.
If by at parity you mean zero ,then yes you would be right.
Exactly. Watching gold fall by more thn the DOW simply confirms the obvious manipulation. The only thing backing the US dollar now is its military. Bernanke should be shipped to Darkest Africa where witch doctors are still in fashion.
On its way to 0/0.
0=0
1=1
I guess the big question is, at what level ?
The supermarket cannot price in more QE from the Fed.
Yes it can. You just have to learn to eat less.
And don't worry so much, it will be good for you. Americans are too overweight anyway.
Cut out all the EBT/BRIDGE/WIC/food stamps thats where all the fat fucks are.
Then expect a QE announcement. WTI seems to be playing along nicely to set it up. GBT's are looking like a long end selling to the Fed spree will happen. As you stated before, Bonds are reality and they are saying SHTF => Ctl+PPPPPPppppppppp
Also, if your short EUR, watch for a short-squeeze before 1.28 ish.
Guess this would be a good time to short the Yen.
I have this funny feeling we are close to a bank holiday....
I have thought it should be at parity today.....what is holding the Euro up so much???? I love it when they say the strength of the Euro......WTF....or for that matter ..the strength of the dollar......strrength....yeah right....look at the Colombian Peso...getting real strong....
What is holding the euro up so much ??......how about currency swaps ???.....Bernank's treachery respects no borders.
Looking at the $xeu chart, I'm wondering if by technical analsys when the Euro crosses the 1.26 mark that it will have completed a head-and-shoulders formation?
If a head-and-shoulders would be completed would this also point to a 0.23 drop which would be about 1.03 on the index?
How about no euro at all ?
There would have to be a default...something big. Something caused by "Greece not being a big deal which is why we won't pay out the CDS contracts" kinda thing. This is a textbook Great Depression scenario going on in Europe btw. STILL going on I might add...
Not going to happen. Jim Rickards is spot on in his remarks about this. Everyone can not devalue at once. the central banks have decided that the Euro will remain strong in relation to the Dollar and Yuan. They will hold the 1.30 level plus or minus 300 basis points. The Swiss have already shown the lengths to which they are prepared to go.
Very possible. Europe is in denial.
Die Another Day: France Pretends Debt Doesn’t Matter, Greece in State of Confusion
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/08/die-another-day-france-pretends-debt-doesnt-matter-greece-in-state-of-confusion/
flag as shitball (1)
'$700 billion QE3'? Dont make me laugh thats a joke...at least $3 trillion has been priced in. Try again Ben....not even close, bud.
Why do you think the Euro should fall?
"The United States is bankrupt, flat broke. Thanks to accounting that would make Enron blush, America’s insolvency goes far beyond what our leaders are disclosing. The United States is a fiscal basket case, in worse shape than the notoriously bailed-out countries of Greece, Ireland, and others."
http://www.kotlikoff.net/
OT but Sprott's PSLV is trading at a very low 3.5% premium right now for anyone interested. http://www.sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/NetAssetValue.aspx
Wait until the premium goes negative. Then mortgage the house.
The euro will be at par with the USD at some point.
Interesting...Can the FED shrug off the political pressure that will be thrusted upon them when exports crash and jobs go along with them in a election year?...It will be interesting to see how this plays out......
I think 1.20 as per the chart isn't unreasonable by year-end, granted summer has to be a repeat of '10 and '11.
What's more interesting however is how gold fares now having broken lots of support before coming back to reach the psychologically important level of 1500.
Candidate for another Stolper?
May 7th; Audrey Childe-Freeman (JP Morgan): EURNOK target 7,49-7,52
May 8th: EURNOK moves from lows of 7,545 to 7,595
where can one chart the euro/usd index vs the dow?
Is it time to sell gold...I see signs everywhere wanting to buy gold
They may say they want to buy it but really they want to steal it. Take a 14k chain in and see what they offer.
Our currency, like every paper currency, is going to zero. So if you want that then sell your gold. No paper currency has lasted over 100 years when not backed by gold. End of story.
Yes. It's going to 1:1
At what level does the new D-Mark open at? Anyone? Bueller?
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
Also,
The Truth Behind the Unemployment Numbers + Stimulus vs Austerity
Facebook Roadshow Presentation
S&P 500 timing system returns 289.81% over the past five years When to expect the next round of QE