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EURUSD Breaches 1.4000 Support
And with that we can put the highly semantic debate over which direction the European currency opened pre-market to rest. To all who were caught wrong way for the past 160 pips, better luck during the next centrally planned intervention. The next catalyst will be BTPs opening for trading in a few brief hours. We are very curious whether the ECB will more focused on preserving the Italian stability falacy or the EURUSD overvaluation myth: perhaps both? After all, "there is a (completely unfunded) EFSF for that."
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Dear short squeezers: I love the smell of napalm in the morning.
This just in!
Japan will be buying more EFSF bonds, says the Europe Fund Chief.
That explains it!
Print more to buy more....
...'round and 'round, 'round it goes!
The Yen and Euro can't peg themselves to the USD. A high USD will push the world into a global deflationary spiral.
pain threshold for the USD dollar index is ~ 89. Near there and the world will enter global deflation. The USD flows are too huge.. A huge reduction leads to global deflation. A huge increase leads to BRIC hyperinflation, and developed world stagflation.
Never happend in history, never will happen.
Show me one debtor nation in history whos currency rose in value as the economy imploded.
http://freegoldobserver.blogspot.com/2011/10/forgotten-crisis-and-what-e...
Exactly, that's why the euro has entered it's death spiral. Throwing more debt into the furnace. euro is about to enter hyperinflation. Funny, it did start out with a hyperinflated pipedream thousand year empire. Why didn't they try 'trillion year empire' to match their banknotes?
Ya know it almost makes me feel bad for the forex traders out there that are the small fries who really try to do their homework and analyze the trends only to get buried by this absurd crap. Of course some of them catch the wave too, but it has become such a ridiculous play of central banker intervention that what ever discovery value the broader forex market had has been largely curtailed to the point that anyone participating at this point is just playing roulette and trying to pick the right square.
I'm expecting this report shortly....
***FLASH REPORT*** SEMANTIC DEBATE PUSHES EURO BACK OVER THE PSYCHOLOGICALLY IMPORTANT 1.4000 TRESHOLD***
***UPDATE2: SEMANTIC DEBATE FORMS UNBREAKABLE DEFENCE LINE FOR EURO, DEFYING ZERO GRAVITY***
***UPDATE3: MIT, HARVARD TO PUBLISH WHITE PAPER ON THE IMPACT OF SEMANTIC DEBATE, EXPECTED TO REVOLUTIONIZE MODERN GLOBAL FINANCE***
;-) Peace man! ;-)
PS. Will be very happy if Euro weakens, that would be great.
"Ya know it almost makes me feel bad for the forex traders out there that are the small fries who really try to do their homework and analyze the trends only to get buried by this absurd crap".
That would be many of us here, be it currencies or equities. It builds character and a healthy cynicism.
A good friend of mine, who is a former options trader turned winemaker, said to me, "The market is a perverse teacher". In the past several years I have had many occasions upon which to ponder those words.
In the long run, I agree. But in the short run will be interesting given USD reserve currency status.
Interesting read.
Fiscal Dimensions of Inflationist Monetary Policy
http://shadowfed.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Goodfriend-SOMCOct2011.pdf
It's interesting because it makes me wonder if the debt bubble had surpressed/masked US NAIRU. And now that the deleveraging has begun, the NAIRU has adjusted to a real rate around 9.1%. Therefore if the Fed tries to push it down below that, we will get more inflation.. Sadly 9% is the magic number where politicians start to lose their job. So once again short term election cycle needs are distorted onto an economic cycle. So we get economic distortions.
Perhaps we have to get used to 9% unemployment, and focus ont the structural problems with unemployment, and not look at a monetary solution. Of course that means politicians will lose their jobs every 2 years, if we do.
The examples you mention are not consistent. Certainly in the case of Thailand there were massive amounts of dollar denominated loans funding a booming property market. When the bad loans started to pile up and the dollars couldn't be repaid, an attack on the Baht ensued, as it was evident that the demand for dollars would rise. Somprasong and Finance One were a couple of the culprits I believe.
On the flipside, a highly valued USD allows digitally dollar flush (not necessarily holding paper fiat, but just balance sheet stuffed in an even mark-to-unicorn fashion) U.S. entities/banks/corporations to binge buy if global deflation sets in on a serious and sustained basis, and also allows the 'mighty U.S. consumer' to resume binge buying foreign made goods, once again playing the role of Knight in Shining Armor (since Chinese culture apparently impedes their plebes from getting too stoked on the notion of buying their 'stuff' with anything other than already accrued earnings, rather than plastic 'I promise to pay my Visa/MasterCard' pledges).
Will this happen?
I don't know. I'm throwing it out as food for thought, and especially considering it since I expect the ECB and other central banks to be begging for The Bernank to open the USD currency swap arrangements/lifelines once again, as he did in 2008-2009).
2011 is the Last American Christmas.
She getting a 2 oz year of the tiger from perth to go next to her 1 oz canada wolf she got for her birthday. Silver and Gold is the new American Christmas present.
I would aver 2010 was our last Halloween for a while. I cannot recall seeing preparation and participation as muted as it is this year, in San Francisco at least. I hope for a revival as All Hallows Eve is an important gesture, debased as it has become.
What with? Their FX reserves must be sinking hard.
As always. Stay short the Euro until it implodes and then short the USD against the Krona and Reminbi.
Shorting the Euro against the dollar has been a losing game for over a year now.. Ever since the Euro bashing on the cover of TIME magazine
Shorting Eliot Spizter sure has been a winner though!
Ben is jealous
Which means....
The printer at work always gets stuck in the morning, so everyone delays printing as much as possible until:
i. a greater fool tries to print the new 50% off vacation offer to Jamaica
ii. the new guy (used to be me) sends the 500 page project document
iii. the one charged with printing meeting minutes for everyone does so
iv. a half-asleep person unconsciously presses Ctrl+F by reflex
3 kicks and few angry drawer slams later, the printer works flawlessly.
It's going to $1.35, then Bernanke will announce....some stupid plan. Something about buying every MBS on the market. Someone has to now that Norway dumped all of their USTs and MBS, right?
If the EU is to be saved - if even for another few years (because long term, it's doomed, and any rational person can see that there's no shared economic or political values amongst the massively divergent EU member states) - count on EUR/USD parity within a year at most...
...because such plans to actually bail out the EU PIIGS+France+UK, along with recapitalizing the choking-on-sovereign-bond bagholding EuroTrash Banks & Pension/Union Funds, will necessarily involve requiring the ECB to print an amount of Euros that will make even The Bernank blush.
rings true to me. only question is whether one has the balls and the margin to stick it out.
"requiring the ECB to print an amount of Euros that will make even The Bernank blush."
Like this?...
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4b/Everest_kalapatthar_crop.jpg/280px-Everest_kalapatthar_crop.jpg&imgrefurl=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Everest&h=188&w=280&sz=15&tbnid=ZJSKLWdm8097kM:&tbnh=89&tbnw=132&prev=/search%3Fq%3DMt%2Beverest%2Bphoto%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=Mt+everest+photo&docid=f-CgxGUwsT8KKM&sa=X&ei=8DOuTqepBsTagQfDxIjVDw&ved=0CDMQ9QEwAQ&dur=13064
In my opinion there is no "doom" as you say. Only reallocation of wealth, in which certain members will become leaner and others will become post-colonial bulemic. If this reallocation occurs and i doubt it will on the basis we have seen many similar moments in the past where a downturn was imminent, but eventually ommited. Well be seeing more than a European extension on crisis.
It somehow surprises me that Americans are so eager to condemn Europe for wanting some of the Pie the US has been counterfeiting for 30 odd years.
I disagree with your political and economic value statement aswell, there is divergence, but i somehow dont see how the goals of greece for instance differ from those of germany right now. If there was any divergence it was before 2007. Two camps can be distinguished, but same can be said for the US.
Also a Uk bail out will never happen, since they can print their own money and the externalities of not joining the euro seem harsh but better than if the Uk had joined the Euro.
I need about 1.29 but that may be a little much to get this week.
Maybe the week, but not 2 weeks! There was a week in 2010 of 784 pips, and then of course 09 and 08 had two or three each matching your gaol. It's not out of the question given the lack of reality by European leaders.
I hope... At lunchtime we are about to break down into the 1.38s.
Couldn't help but think that there isn't a better day for the Euro to die than on all hallows eve.
October 27, 2011 was May 16, 2008, part II. The top formation here is a spitting image of the 2007 top formation. We are staring over a cliff edge in equities and the top is in. The 2009 lows will be breached by the end of next summer.
The aussie dollar has droped almost 2% this morning starting to get interesting.
AUD = the cleanest shirt in the wardrobe.
But I'm pulling the sheet over my head and crawling under the bed till the bad dream ends. Thank God someone invented the straddle.
without doubt somone will wake up broke tomorrow playing in this rigged Casino and be very sore between the cheeks
Australia has is one of the last nations standing with a yet to be popped housing bubble and when that inevitable prick occurs in earnest, even its mining/commodity based economy isn't going to be able to dull/offset the pain.
The AUD will be jackhammered. Its current value is now based on staggering falsehoods.
check the big iron ore price slide, that and the aussie housing market is already having a price/value crash. the aud is a short sell from hell, just the timing. i have been killed on many occasions with that trade.
What you say is true.
I find it incredibly ironic that the Chinese central planners stockpiled copper and iron ore on a cost averaged basis that could turn out to be ridiculously high given the trend, in an attempt to hedge against both inflation and losses on Chinese holdings of U.S. and EU sovereign bonds, when the latter may lose less real value than the former on even a long time horizon.
(Also, this pain would only be exacerbated should Chinese internal demand for such commodities wane for a sustained period)
This is what happens when the world economy is turned over to people like Bernanke, who breaks all markets, and helps to create one of the greatest periods of lack of clarity, and consequently, malinvestment and misinvestment and price/demand distortions and bubbles, in a true casino-like environment, that history has ever recorded.
Yep, but I think that history will show that China wasn't the most savvy of traders, and believed that they could control various commodities- silly boys, the rest of the world DOES matter.
So excessive yen moves over time due to "speculators" are not allowed but 5% moves in a matter of minutes due to "intervention" is perfectly fine? Oh I get it... When it's the government doing the manipulation it ceases being manipulation and turns into an act of setting the markets right. The entirety of the market says jpy is worth one thing but a select committee of thugs says its worth another, so the thugs must be correct. Distopia.
this is the way of things, my son.
Europe isnt racing to the bottom with the same speed as others. I see 1.50 ++++ in the future.
Really?
You are actually serious?
The EU is the largest economic unit in the world, it has the most aggregrate net debt (both in absolute and nominal terms, and also expressed as a percentage of debt-to-GDP when measured in terms of current liabilities) of any developed entity (yes, larger than the U.S., when not counting future liabilities, and I'd hazard a SWAG that even then its liabilities would be FAR larger than the U.S. given the massive public sector liabilities and strength of unions in almost all EU Member states).
It's a crazy world we live in, but on a relative scale, with no major currencies back by anything other than empty promises and hollow full faith and credit boilerplate, I do not see the EUR as anything other than just more rough textured toilet paper.
What do you see the dollar as?
As ugly as it is, like I said above, everything is relative right now.
I see the dollar as the world's reserve currency unless and until the U.S. is displaced as destination of choice for exported goods (in even times of deleveraging), unless and until we're living in a situation of realpolitik where the U.S. Military is displaced as protectorate of most of the Middle East oil producers/exporters, and on that related note, until the global economy is no longer a petro-USD one (and commodities are no longer traded in USD).
Will China displace the U.S. in any or all of the categories above? I would not bet on that, though many are, whether 50 or 200 years from now.
Is there another power ready to supplant the role of the USD and the US in quick fashion, besides China? I can't think of one.
Right on cue:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/world/middleeast/united-states-plans-p...
A softer textured TP.
In the end, it is still paper.
Blue Horseshoe loves Au and Ag.
Bitchez.
Those damned slanted eye'd pricks
Juncker, your move...choose your next words carefully
I suspect we will give up half to all of October's stock market gains in November. This datapoint is but one small tell. Stay tuned.
This is when the overnight futures get really interesting. Now with Europe "fixed" anything outta there is BAD and that means the Euro gets cornholed. Can't be buying increasing dollars overnight, have to buy them early in the evening. With all the movement in the EU now TPTB will have a hard time manipulating them all and keeping all the fires out.
It is no longer just juggling cats, it is juggling exploding cats that are on fire.
If you break it down to the nanosecond, it's a repeating LOL in cuneiform.
Can't wait till Benji reminds these pikers how real men print money...
Never before has the world been witness to such blatant, systemic intervention (corruption). I can't ever remember a time where, literally every day, the focus isn't on corporates or general business conditions. Now, it instead is on central banks and governments and too big to fails across the entire globe. System is total and complete shit, hit a few keystrokes and you can decrease someone's relative net worth by large percentages.
You want some whine with that cheese?
Should I call the whaaaaambulance?
Dabolina:
Keep posting fake fucking bullshit on your website http://tradeonfire.blogspot.com/.
Here's one of YOUR images, taken from YOUR blog, of your purported trading account: http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/404/spositions.png/
Yeah, see that "Reset All Positions" button? You only get to exit, or "reset" all your positions in a fake/paper/play account. Exposed.
Can't take the heat?
Get out of the kitchen little boy.
Here's another of your fraudulent "real account" postings.
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/72/bobdabolinatwo.png/
Except you're too stupid to realize those big fat zeroes under buy/sell, positions, and your P/L open and P/L day all show big, fat zeroes. Your account has nothing. Zeroes. Laughable.
Now, liar, is there anything else?
How many times stupid shit do I have to tell you I didn't have a position when I posted that?
the only position you've ever been in your whole sad life is on twenty nails....and a pair of dallas cowboys kneepads!
You can say it a million times, you're still a liar. Because when you posted that particular picture, you were trying to convince the less-educated you had made money on the /gc futures. Problem for you, dopeshit, is that most people here are traders, and we immediately figured out, you got nothing in your account. And our images prove it. In fact, your PRIOR argument was the image was taken after midnight PST, and thus the profit/loss "reset" at midnight PST. After we exposed THAT fucking bullshit, your new spin is you had no positions, period. Story keeps changing -- but the TRUE facts remain the same, for all to see.
Keep lying. You have been fucking exposed, many of us laugh at you. Just go away. Though every time you post we're going to continue to expose you, lest some unfortunate soul try to mirror your fake trades on that shit blog. Fuck, I hope someone sues your ass for fraud.
What's this?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-grjCv0nTwD4/Tq40EWs4luI/AAAAAAAAAwg/kwlXURwcnI...
Which is on my blog RIGHT now and matches up with the trades that I've posted publicly.
Why don't you post that next time you want to talk shit
That's a partial screenshot of your paper/play account. Look dickboy, it's over, we got the screens of your paper/play/fake account. Nothing you can do about it, we saved all of them. Also, anyone can go back to your site to see you tried to scrub most of the images. Keep wasting time posting fake trades. Doesn't change the following fact: Exposed.
Here's another one
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rSyVtq60CwA/TqruEhvDJeI/AAAAAAAAAvM/ym2ku2azW6...
What "reset positions"
Have any other photoshopped screenshots?
Update: quiet all of a sudden?
that's a pretty depressing existence you got goin' there, bob.
jomama...everything you say is depressing.
You should talk to someone about that.
Bob, give it up- even new guys to the board like me see that you're a dewch.
Go play fantasy football- the payoff is better than trying to pump your phony blog.
dabolina the idiot fantasy trader.
Dabolina dabbles in doubletalk.
Paper trading is for pussies and beginners, Dab.
You sure are mad.
Wow Tyler what a victory! A 160 pip drop and your already announcing a reversal. Market manipulation is the name of the game yet you rely on fundamentals for a convincing argument. Interesting..
Q
Q
As bad as Bloomturd has turned out to be, and even though it's been trending towards all things lowest common demoninator and lies that form the backbone of that tragically farcical 'financial news network' called cnBSc, it gives surprising leeway to a few of its regular columists to write candid, lucid and painful truths about the massive Ponzi scheme otherwise known as our fractional reserve banking practice dependent global economy.
Well, gold dropped $30. To support, 1705-1720.
Here's a question: If the EZ prints big QE and the euro tanks, at what point does dollar-denominated gold diverge from from its close DX correlation?
It's all about Italy, narrow that down, there is NO WAY they want a scaled up style Greek protest. Greece a micro economy to Italy a larger economy. They won't go all austerity. Italy will leave the EU.
If you think Italy is going to make Greece look like the proverbial pimple on the Elephant's ass (not to mention Spain, which has been conspicuously absent from the financial headlines of late), just wait until the reality of France's economic calamity starts to get picked up on by the bubble headed bleach blondes.
I think eveyone is watching Italy, bond auction flopped on Friday, stocks went neg. Their PM has a 2013 tenture and he not going to play ball.
Spain is quite, which is funny cause their unemployment rate just blew out 20% +...haha how will they create austerity wehen half the country is out of the job! It's a complete joke
Italian 10 yr yield up to over 6% recently but CDS dived from 450 to 395 in the last couple of days. Market believes CDS will not be honored?
The European branch of ISDA is likely to declare a Greek credit event because the majority of CDS are now in Europe.If not,everyone holding an Italian CDS will sell it as useless.This market is unregulated,so it is difficult to distinguish speculation from hedging.
Italian spreads 404 now.
Shit goes up, shit goes down. no news here
Someone asked JD Rockefeller what is the market goign to today? he answered "fluctuate".
There is nothing else anyone needs to know.
That was JP Morgan.
A few lines underneath of Hopium rumour should get it higher again
Catchphrase for the week:
"there is an EFSF for that."
"(completely unfunded)" is optional